Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy, and the Brazilian Elections of 2006

This article analyzes Luiz Inácio da Silva's resounding reelection victory in the wake of corruption scandals implicating his party and government. Voters with lower levels of economic security and schooling played a critical role in returning Lula to the presidency. Least prone to punish the president for corruption, poorer Brazilians were also the most readily persuaded by the provision of material benefits. Minimum wage increases and the income transfer program Bolsa Família expanded the purchasing power of the poor. Thus, executive power and central state resources allowed Lula to consolidate a social base that had responded only weakly to his earlier, party-based strategy of grassroots mobilization for progressive macrosocietal change. Although Lula won handily, the PT's delegation to Congress shrank for the first time, and the voting bases of president and party diverged. The PT benefited far less than the president himself from government investment in social policy.     

后苏联时期的俄罗斯政治领袖

政治领袖是苏联和俄罗斯政治体系中的关键组成部分,在后苏联时代的俄罗斯政治生活中占有特别重要的地位。俄罗斯政治文化一直偏爱强势而有个性的政治领袖,从1917年以来的苏联领袖大多都秉持了这一特点。改革派领导人戈尔巴乔夫由于自己的优柔寡断而丧失了对于改革乃至国家的控制,而与其个人风格和成长经历迥异的叶利钦经历了一系列复杂的政治斗争,最终成为了新生的俄罗斯联邦的领袖。他推动俄罗斯进行了激进的市场化改革,希望使俄罗斯走上以市场经济为特征的"文明之路",但由于复杂的国际国内环境以及政策方面的失误,这一尝试最终以失败而告终。虽然他是俄罗斯第一任民选总统,但叶利钦自相矛盾的执政风格、不稳定的心理状态和诸多生活上的不良习惯都令人诟病,他虽然赢得了竞选连任,但由于身体原因和杜马掣肘,很难有所作为。在经历了复杂的甄选之后,他选择了普京作为自己的接班人,并且帮助普京顺利当选。有克格勃背景的普京是一位具有开拓精神和无比坚韧的性格的领导人。在接任总理之后,很快凭借自己的超群才能,解决了车臣问题,并且有效提高了社会福利,从而迅速提高了自己的威望,以绝对优势当选总统。执政之后,普京很快推动了俄罗斯政治制度新的"转型",他通过除了暴力之外的一切手段强化国家权力,打击"寡头",取消地方选举,限制独立媒体,通过"西罗维基"掌控权力,最终使整个政权集中于自己的手中,形成了被称为"可控民主"或"主权民主"的普京体制。在八年任期结束后,普京拒绝了第三个总统任期,而选择了一项略显复杂的政治安排。将总统职务交给自己的亲信梅德韦杰夫,本人则以总理和统一俄罗斯党主席的身份继续参政,形成了一种特殊的"双头制"政权,直到2012年重返克里姆林宫。随着时代的变迁,俄罗斯正处于发展的十字路口。普京的重新执政对于俄罗斯未来的改革可能将会是一个积极的因素,因为他拥有足够的权力推动改革的进行。虽然面对诸多不确定的挑战,但仍然有成功的机会。     

State Livelihood Planning and Legibility in Vietnam’s Northern Borderlands: The “Rightful Criticisms” of Local Officials

Macro-level policies frequently transform and reconfigure local livelihood options. While there is a small but growing body of ethnographic work regarding ethnic minority livelihoods in Vietnam’s mountainous borderlands, there is far less research examining the state decrees and policies implemented there and the opinions of state workers who have to apply them. This article starts to address this gap. First, we examine contemporary Vietnamese state legislation regarding upland livelihoods. We focus on the directions found in 82 livelihood-related state decrees, examining their scope and edicts while critiquing what they overlook regarding upland livelihood needs and approaches. Then, from in-depth interviews with state officials in Hà Giang Province, a mountainous upland region with a proportionately large ethnic minority population, we explore the opinions of those charged with the implementation of these decrees. Building on O’Brien’s earlier work on rightful resistance in China, we suggest that a form of “rightful criticism” has emerged among upland state officials, allowing us to reveal the contours of political power in Vietnam’s borderlands. Moreover, we draw attention to the lack of acknowledgement of ethnic diversity in these uplands within policy and official practice.     

The Russian State in the Time of Putin

As Putin's second term ends, the tone of Western opinion toward the president has turned increasingly rancorous. Those who feel embittered by the emergence of semi-authoritarianism and crony capitalism out of the communist collapse might consider blaming the theory as well as the man. This article characterizes the post-communist Russian state and Putin's legacy as state builder. Drawing on the Russian studies literature, the article looks at the underlying mechanisms that have long shaped state—society relations in Russia. Using the concept of power resources as an analytical tool, the article attempts to illuminate these mechanisms and, in so doing, examines what is new and what is familiar in the post-communist Russian state.     

American policy toward Beijing, 1989–1990: The role of president Bush and the White House staff

The Tiananmen massacre of June 1989 created a major crisis in U.S. policy toward China. President Bush and his aides on the National Security Council staff took the lead in formulating the U.S. response to the crisis. The president took charge personally in dealing with various issues during the next two years. He strove hard to maintain a balanced policy that would allow for continued U.S. involvement with the people and leaders of China. In the crisis atmosphere of 1989–1990, the president appeared to judge that it was important to narrow sharply the circle of officials who would manage U.S. policy toward China. In part, this was because the president was attempting to strike a difficult balance in U.S. policy. On the one hand, he was attempting to elicit positive gestures from Beijing's beleaguered leaders in the wake of Tiananmen. On the other hand, he was attempting to avoid what he judged were overly punitive and counterproductive U.S. measures against China, which were being pressed on the administration by U.S. leaders in the Congress, media and elsewhere. The president and his close advisors took steps to ensure that State Department and other U.S. officials avoided comment on the most sensitive policy issue of 1990—the extension of most-favored-nation tariff treatment to China. By the end of 1990, however, the president's policy efforts had not stilled congressional debate or restored a consensus in U.S. China policy. President Bush still labored under the misperception in many quarters that he was less interested than others in human rights in China, was overly attentive to the interests of Chinese leaders, and stressed excessively China's alleged strategic importance for the United States. In fact, the Chinese government's relatively constructive role in world affairs, especially over such vital issues as the 1990–1991 Persian Gulf crisis, appeared to do more to win U.S. support for the president's carefully balanced approach to China than the efforts by administrative leaders to explain the policy.     

Politics in Indonesia: Current State and Future Outlook

Indonesia's sixth and first directly elected president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his vice president, Jusuf Kalla, symbolically represent the social power of the military and business elite who was nurtured during the Suharto era. The “Unity Cabinet” of the new administration reflects not just the division of labor between the president and vice-president, but the division of power among contending parties that make up the still-mutating ruling and opposition alliances. The subsequent neutralizing of the leading Muslim social organization Nahdlatul Ulama, the collapse of the opposition alliance, and personnel changes in the military have given the current administration a measure of stability, even as the challenges of implementing a lasting solution to the conflict in Aceh and of putting Indonesia back on the track of viable economic growth depend on the as-yet untested leadership of the president.     

Watchdogs in Our Midst: How Presidents Monitor Coalitions in Brazil's Multiparty Presidential Regime

When delegating governing tasks to a coalition partner, the president would like to give a minister ample administrative powers to be able to effectively accomplish the political mission. Due to information asymmetries, the president runs the risk that this discretion might be used to pursue policy outcomes that may harm the president's preferences. This trade‐off between delegation and control is key to understanding governance strategies the president chooses to minimize agency risks and coordinate public policies. With Brazil as a case study, this article demonstrates that presidents have strategically made frequent use of junior ministers as watchdogs of coalition partners, especially when coalition allies are ideologically distant from the president's preferences. Yet neither the portfolio salience nor the president's decision to share powers with coalition partners proportionally seems to interfere in such strategic decisions.     

Us strategy in the middle east and the 2004 presidential election 9/11: towards a redefinition of america's role in the world

September 11th dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape for the United States. Though President Bush was elected as a domestic policy president, the war against radical Islam has become the central theme of his presidency. In this war, adhering to the analyses of the neoconservatives, the President believes that the region's tyrannies are a breeding ground for Islamic extremism. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein's tyranny and replacing it with a more democratic regime is the start of a long process of liberalization of the Arab world that will have reverberations for years to come. Though Senator John Kerry has based his 2004 presidential campaign on criticizing President Bush's Iraq policy, if Kerry were elected president, his Iraq policies would actually differ little from those of Bush.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

The New Federalism in Mexico and Foreign Economic Policy: An Alternative Two-Level Game Analysis of the Metalclad Case

This article examines, through a two-level game model, the case of the first investment dispute under NAFTA between a private U.S. firm and the Mexican government. It argues that the clue to understanding why the Mexican president could not cooperate with the U.S. president lies in Mexico's domestic "ratification" process. The analysis yields two theoretical propositions. First, federalism represents an important variable in explaining foreign economic policy. Second, two-level game logic should not be applied only to formal international negotiation situations; instead, by specifying the dependent variable as cooperation or noncooperation, these models connecting domestic and international politics can be productively applied to study foreign economic policy.     

俄罗斯对外援助体系研究

2005年以来,随着经济形势的好转和国际地位的提高,俄罗斯开始加大对外援助投入,并逐步建立起自己的对外援助体系。在对外援助政策方面,从学习借鉴西方国家的经验,将对外援助看作履行国际义务、获取国家威望的手段,到主动探索建立符合本国实际的对外援助政策体系,强调对独联体地区国家援助、“软实力”和国家利益。在对外援助管理方面,总统在对外援助政策中居于中心位置,政府负责决策执行,议会负责相关立法工作,各联邦机构分别负责各自职责范围内的对外援助行动,并成立了跨部门协调机构统筹对外援助行动。在对外援助运作方面,俄罗斯将对外援助行动列入国家计划,主要通过多边和双边渠道对外提供援助。在对外援助的评估方面,俄罗斯提出了援助预算资金使用效果评估方法,定期发布对外援助数据和报告,正在逐步完善对外援助评估体系。近年来,俄罗斯对外援助体系出现较大调整,对外援助管理权有从财政部门向外交部门、从政府向总统转移的趋势。     

Russia's Foreign Policy Towards North Africa in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Since coming to power in 2000, Russian president Vladimir Putin has tried to construct a narrative of regaining Russia's status as a major global power. However, in practice the Kremlin has yet to create a coherent strategy or achieve a sense of a co-ordinated foreign policy. While North Africa has not been at the forefront of this narrative, recently Moscow has intensified its diplomatic links and cooperation with the regimes in the region. The Arab Spring presented Russian policy makers with a series of challenges regarding the uncertainty of the developments in the region, but also with renewed economic opportunities. This profile analyses Moscow's relationships with the countries in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) in the wake of the Arab Spring. In each case the Kremlin aimed to take advantage of the new opportunities without really being guided by an overarching strategy for the region. However, Russia increasingly seems to be keen to position itself in the region as an alternative to the EU or the US, not least in light of the current war in Ukraine.     

“单一行政官”理论与美国总统权力的扩张

"单一行政官"理论是在对美国宪法有关总统权力条款的解读过程中产生的理论,其核心含义是,任何对总统掌控行政部门进行限制的企图都被视为违宪。"单一行政官"的概念形成于200多年前的制宪会议。后来,"单一行政官"理论不断地发展演变,为美国总统不断扩展其行政权力提供了理论依据。"单一行政官"理论通过证明总统扩张权力的正当性,对美国三权分立的权力制衡机制构成了威胁。要厘清总统权力的边界,必须参照宪法的文本和结构,同时也要考虑到现代社会对行政部门提出的新要求。     

Potholes,pensions, and public opinion: the politics of blame in Putin's power vertical

What are the risks and rewards of power centralization in competitive authoritarian regimes, and who in the regime bears those risks and enjoys the rewards? The elimination of gubernatorial elections in Russia in late 2004 provides a unique opportunity to study public reaction to policies that replaced democratically elected regional leaders with Kremlin appointees, thereby further concentrating power in the hands of the central state while simultaneously reducing the level of democratic accountability in Russian politics. Using a 2007 survey of 1500 Russians, it is possible to observe how key measures of public opinion and regime support were influenced by the elimination of gubernatorial elections. Because the timeline of gubernatorial appointments was determined exogenously based on the expiration of elected incumbent governors' terms, by 2007 some regions had governors who still held electoral mandates, while others had Kremlin appointees with no electoral mandate. This quasi experiment allows us to draw surprising conclusions about whom Russians blame – and do not blame – when power becomes increasingly centralized in the hands of the president.     

US-Japan Alliance: The Political Dimension

George W. Bush was inaugurated as the new president of the United States on 20 January 2001. How will the change in personnel influence Washington's approach to its relationship with East Asia and, in particular, with Japan? Takashi Oka, a Washington-based consultant to the Liberal Party of Japan who was for many years a correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor, considers this question in the following article. Oka argues that the strategic importance of the US-Japan alliance has not lessened with the end of the Cold War,and that in order to confront the security challenges of the twenty-first century, Japan's position within the US-Japan alliance needs to change from that of a protected subordinate to that of an equal partner. For this to be possible, a politician with sufficient vision and power, someone with a clear foreign policy, who is strong enough in domestic politics to carry out that policy, needs to emerge in Japan.     

The Bush Administration's 'Alliance-Based' East Asia Policy

The US will face major foreign policy challenges in East Asia in the twenty-first century. In this article, Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, examines the Bush administration's policy towards East Asia which he argues continues to be alliance-based. The principal issues include: the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula; China's potential emergence as a regional power and the sensitive topic of the Taiwan Strait, Japan's struggle with economic and constitutional reform and an unstable Indonesia. The administration's stated commitment to missile defense has been well publicized and the security implications of this for the region are also examined by Cossa. Although a ''Vision statement'' on the Asia-Pacific is still lacking and needed, he argues that the basic components of the Bush administration's Asia strategy appear to be well-formed.     

Judicial Reform as Insurance Policy: Mexico in the 1990s

After seven decades of Mexican judicial subordination, President Ernesto Zedillo in 1994 introduced judicial reforms that increased the independence and judicial review powers of the judicial branch. The willful creation of a judiciary capable of checking the power of the president and the ruling PRI appears to counter political logic; but it makes sense as a political "insurance policy" to protect the ruling party from its rivals. PRI politicians, newly unable to control political outcomes at state and local levels and unsure if they would continue to dominate the national government in the future, opted to empower the Mexican Supreme Court as a hedge against the loss of office. This article argues that the likelihood of the reforms' producing an empowered judiciary increases as the ruling party's probability of reelection declines.     

Outsiders and Executive‐Legislative Conflict in Latin America

One of the most significant developments in Latin American democracies since the beginning of the Third Wave of democratization is the rise to power of political outsiders. However, the study of the political consequences of this phenomenon has been neglected. This article begins to fill that gap by examining whether the rise of outsiders in the region increases the level of executive‐legislative confrontation. Using an original database of political outsiders in Latin America, it reports a series of logistic regressions showing that the risk of executive‐legislative conflict significantly increases when the president is an outsider. The likelihood of institutional paralysis increases when an independent gets elected, due to the legislative body's lack of support for the president and the outsider's lack of political skills. The risk of an executive's attempted dissolution of Congress is also much higher when the president is an outsider.     

From Middle Powers to Entrepreneurial Powers in World Politics: Brazil's Successes and Failures in International Crises

This article uses the concept of entrepreneurial powers to discuss how and under what circumstances Brazil successfully accomplishes its goals in international crises. The concept of entrepreneurial power focuses on systematic evidence of middle‐power behavior and its relation to foreign policy tools. Brazil resorts to three agency‐based foreign policy tools that are the substance of its entrepreneurial power. These instruments are always mediated by a structural condition, the dominant power pivotal position in the crisis. This study applies qualitative comparative analysis methodology to 32 international crises since the early 1990s in which Brazil played a role. It finds that for regional crises, the use of only one agency‐based tool is sufficient for success, regardless of the dominant power position; and for global crises, the use of only one agency‐based tool is a necessary and sufficient condition for Brazil to accomplish its goals, despite the dominant power position on the issue.     

The Authoritarian Executive? Horizontal and Vertical Accountability in Nicaragua

This article uses empirical evidence from Nicaragua to examine Guillermo O'Donnell's argument that new democracies often become undemocratic delegative democracies and that vertical accountability is not enough to stop such encroaching authoritarianism. While events in the last five years have focused attention on illegal executive behavior by former president Alemán, Nicaragua's democracy actually has experienced authoritarian presidencies under all the major parties. Elections and popular mobilization have strengthened the independence of the legislature, however. Mechanisms of vertical accountability thereby have proven more effective than expected in restraining executive authoritarianism and fostering institutions of horizontal accountability. The case of Nicaragua shows that citizens can use the power balance and separate institutional mandate of presidential democracy to limit authoritarianism.