Natural resource policies and standard of living in Kazakhstan

This paper evaluates Kazakhstan's natural resource policies and their impact on the standard of living of the Kazakhstan population within the framework of three determinative factors: globalization and international markets; Soviet legacy and ‘resource nationalism’; and Nursultan Nazarbayev and his authoritarian leadership. It argues that natural resource policies of Kazakhstan failed to improve the living standards of the majority of people in Kazakhstan, especially the poor and those living in oil-producing and rural areas, despite increasing oil prices and revenues. The argument will be supported with an analysis of Kazakhstan's oil wealth distribution in light of global initiatives as well as with evidence derived from official reports and statistical data to find out whether Nazarbayev's widely discussed ‘resource nationalism’ is ‘nationalistic’ enough to favour the whole nation.     

Social,environmental and economic sustainability of Kazakhstan: a long-term perspective

This paper explores the evolution of Kazakhstan's development through an analysis of population trends, infant mortality, air emissions, water management, oil production, income, cost of living and average salary. The longitudinal data analysis demonstrates that the development of Kazakhstan during the Soviet period was far from sustainable in terms of uncontrolled environmental pollution. Time-series analysis illustrates that the 1990s transition to the market economy temporarily eased environmental degradation but also brought about initial socio-economic disarray and decline in living standards. Further support for rural areas and economic diversification is needed to move away from Kazakhstan's heavy reliance on mineral resource extraction to a more sustainable path of development.     

Vladimir Putin's Vision of Russia as a Normal Great Power

A specialist on Russian foreign policy analyzes Putin's international strategy. The author draws on the writings of Russia's foreign policy decisionmakers, as well as on the commentary of Russian and Western analysts, to identify Putin's vision and compare it with that of recent leaders. Three elements of Putin's policies are examined: state concentration, cooperation with the West, and Russia's projection of influence in the former Soviet region. The question of Western responses to Putin's strategy is also addressed.     

Causes of the Collapse of the USSR

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.     

Russia in the Post-Western World: The End of the Normalization Paradigm?

If the relative decline of the West and the great power shift defined as "the rise of the rest" are approaching, there are important implications for Russia's foreign policy. Drawing on the work of Russian and Western commentators, this article offers a preliminary assessment of the post-Western world's implications for Russia and its foreign policy. The challenge of the emerging post-Western world and the manifestations of the West's declining hard and soft power dimensions are described; several schools of Russian thought on current international conditions and Russia's own domestic capabilities are identified and analyzed; and Russia's potential to act as a post-Western great power is assessed.     

The Political Implications of Russia's Resource-Based Economy

Abstract

A political economist explores the question of Russia's “resource curse.” He analyzes the links between resource wealth and politics, asking why resource-based economies are more likely than others to suffer from poor governance. In an investigation grounded in the political economy literature on the resource curse, several specific claims about the nature of politics and governance in resource-based economies are identified. Russia's recent experience is assessed in relation to those claims.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on Russia's Agriculture

The article analyzes the impact of WTO accession on Russia's agricultural sector. Three aspects of WTO rules that will affect Russian agriculture are examined: (1) financial support from the Russian government, (2) market access for foreign imports, and (3) market access for Russia's food exports. Addressing the question of positive and negative impacts on Russia's agricultural sector, the article asks if a pessimistic view that sees primarily negative consequences as a result of accession is justified. Claims made by skeptics who are dismissive of the impact WTO entry will have on Russian agriculture are also considered.     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.     

Constructing the homeland: Kazakhstan's discourse and policies surrounding its ethnic return-migration policy

A new political development that emerged after the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the adoption of ‘homeland stances’ by the newly independent states. Through the construction of the homeland image, the states of the region claimed responsibility not only for their own citizens, but also for a diaspora community of co-ethnics. Kazakhstan became one of these states and its leadership portrayed Kazakhstan as the homeland of the Kazakh diaspora. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's leadership developed far more active homeland rhetoric and initiated an ethnic return-migration policy as early as 1992. This paper will explore the discourse of Kazakhstan's leadership on the repatriation of its co-ethnics as well as the legal and political context that it created to achieve their smooth absorption into domestic society.     

Imperial nostalgia or prudent geopolitics? Russia's efforts to reintegrate the post-Soviet space in geopolitical perspective

After stagnating throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s, Russia's efforts to reintegrate the post-Soviet space are finally gathering momentum. According to President Vladimir Putin, Russia's goal is to establish a Eurasian Economic Union “capable of becoming one of the poles in a future multi-polar world.” Most existing studies see Russia's imperial and post-Soviet legacies as the driving forces behind these efforts. Although they offer valuable insights, these studies fail to explain the timing of Russia's push for deeper regional integration. This article examines these developments from a geopolitical perspective and compares Eurasian regionalism with the regional integration projects of other great powers (more specifically, Brazil and Mercosur/Unasur and China and ASEAN+1). All three efforts are occurring at a time when the international system is in flux and the ability of the USA and other Western powers to deliver key global collective goods is being called into question. Regional integration must ultimately be seen as a strategy by Russia and other great powers to respond to these challenges and prepare themselves for an unpredictable future.     

The Politics of Professionalism in Russia

A political scientist examines the ways in which the word "professional" constructs group identities in the world of politics. Applying discourse analysis to 34 texts generated by interviews with prominent members of Russia's political class in the Gorbachev, first and second Yel'tsin, and Putin administrations as well as the democratic opposition, this article seeks to determine how the word "professional" has been used by past and present members of Russia's political class. Two opposing discourses that constitute its meanings are outlined. The study's results are framed in a dynamic model of change in Soviet and Russian political communication.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

Comments on “Soviet Transport Trends, 1950–1990”

A political scientist and specialist on Russian electoral and ethnic politics provides an explanation of machine politics in Russia's regions that accounts for the great variation in the power of these machines. The focus is on distinguishing among the economic and ethnic legacies of the Soviet period, the effects of the transition itself, and the impact of provincial leadership. As evidence, the author presents a historicalinterpretive examination of Russia's transition at the level of provincial politics as well as a statistical analysis of factors impacting the strength of regional machine candidates in the 1999 single-member-district Duma elections.     

Monotowns and the political economy of industrial restructuring in Russia

During the 2008–2009 economic crisis, Russia's monotowns – one-industry towns left from the Soviet era – gained widespread attention as potential sources of social protest and unrest. Will such worries resurface under current economic conditions? While fears about monotowns were exaggerated during the last economic crisis, Russia's leadership has reason to remain concerned. Despite the dramatic transformations of the last two decades, Russia's post-Soviet industrial landscape has largely survived intact, leaving a significant number of monotowns with unprofitable enterprises in a precarious position. Yet given its emphasis on social stability, we can expect the government to continue subsidies, both explicit and hidden, that seek to maintain employment and avoid social conflict, but that preserve the country's inefficient industrial geography.     

Sergey Glazyev and the revival of Soviet economics

A veteran Western observer and authority on Russia's political economy examines the recent debate on economic growth in Russia. Focusing on Sergey Glazyev, a prominent statist and nationalist favored by President Vladimir Putin, who reemerged at the top of the public debate, the author discusses the essence of his ideas (state capitalism, Eurasian integration, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy). He proceeds to analyze the critical response of liberals, citing inter alia objections to loose fiscal and monetary policies. Russia's liberal economists favor broader international integration, whereas Putin is clearly in favor of state capitalism and Eurasian integration. This study ends with an up-to-date politico-economic assessment titled “Where is Putin going?”     

"Loans for Shares" Revisited

The "loans for shares" scheme of 1995-1996—in which a handful of well-connected businessmen bought stakes in major Russian companies—is widely considered a scandalous affair that had disastrous consequences for the Russian economy. Fifteen years later, the details of the program are reexamined in light of evidence available today. The conventional wisdom about "loans for shares" is analyzed in terms of how much of the market the stakes involved represented; the pricing in terms of international practice; the scheme's place in Russia's increasing wealth inequality; who the biggest beneficiaries were: and the firms' role in Russia's rapid growth after 1999.     

Persistence and change in Soviet and Russian relations with Afghanistan

This paper examines persistence and change in the Soviet Union's and then Russia's relations with Afghanistan with respect to development and security. First, a detailed analysis of the promise and reality of Soviet development assistance reveals conceptual shortcomings in their attempt to induce economic development in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union's heritage is then revealed in order to understand Russia's current perception of post-Taliban Afghanistan as well as Russia's emerging interests and commitment to Afghanistan's economic development. This paper argues that Russia will most likely replicate standard industrialization development approaches in contributing to Afghanistan's development. Therefore, Russia will probably run into problems similar to those that led to the failure of the Soviet modernization project, which consisted of large-scale development projects that were inappropriate to the country's institutions and the lives of most Afghans. It is questionable whether such reiteration will induce economic development now, in the complex setting of a fragmented and fragile state with a multitude of external players looking out for their own interests.     

Conflict-Management in Russia's Federal Institutions

A political scientist examines factors leading to instability in the Russian legislative and executive branches. The article focuses on the design of Russia's “unlinked dual-channel” institutions-particularly, partisan factions and legislative committees in the Duma, and the presidential administration and government apparatus in the executive branch. Media sources and the author's personal interviews with Duma, Kremlin, and ministry officials are analyzed.     

Between Assertiveness and Insecurity: Russian Elite Attitudes and the Russia-Georgia Crisis

A political scientist discusses the content and sources of Russian elite perspectives on international affairs. The "color revolutions," the perceived specter of Islamic radicalism, contestation over Russian identity, and evolving perceptions of Russia's international leverage are examined for their impact on elite attitudes. Discussion of the crisis in relations between Russia and Georgia illustrates the article's theme about the relationship between insecurity and assertiveness.     

Four Years After the Collapse of the USSR

A prominent French political scientist and specialist on Russia introduces this special issue of Post-Soviet Affairs, The essay notes recent literature on Russia's regions and challenges analysts to rethink prevailing conceptions of center-periphery relations, centralization versus decentralization of political power, and authoritarian versus democratic politics. Focis is on regional elites' attitudes toward political inclusion and on the mutual dependence of elites.