PUBLIC OPINION REACTION TO REPEATED EVENTS: Citizen Response to Multiple Supreme Court Abortion Decisions

While numerous works explores how single events or political actions affect public opinion, almost no research explores how this effect evolves with repeated actions. The Conditional Response Model holds that while elite actors can influence and polarize the public when they first act on an issue, subsequent action will not have this same effect. We challenge this model based on its depiction of psychological models of attitude formation and change. Instead of focusing on the number of times an actor has addressed an issue, we argue that the state of public opinion is the key to determining how the public will react to multiple elite actions over a long timeframe. We examine how the public reacted to multiple Supreme Court decisions on abortion. Our results suggest that the Conditional Response Model does a poor job of depicting public opinion and that actors are not limited in their influence by the number of previous actions on an issue.     

监督舆论与舆论监督:网络公民权利与公共权力的进退与平衡

监督舆论与舆论监督是话语干涉的两种形式,存在主体性、结果性、立场性、技术性的权力差异。监督舆论形成公共权力的积极进制、消极进制、无效进制,引导舆论朝着积极正向的方向发展,但也易造成舆论的说教化与虚假化。舆论监督形成公共权力的强制化、主动化、圈层化、边缘化的退制,适应公意的变化,提倡公民权利约束公共权力,保证权力运行的合法化与公开化,存在舆论控制权力的风险,出现群体审判与群氓政治的现象。监督舆论与舆论监督应达到有限性平衡、动态性平衡、有效性平衡、竞争性平衡,保证公共权力与公民权利的相互制衡,达到善治的目的,进而实现公共权力与舆论机制的优化,促进社会现代化的和谐发展。     

论网络舆情对政府制定公共政策的影响

当前我国处于网络信息新时代,网络舆情是政府了解民意的重要渠道和方法,对于民意的征求也应适当地采取网络投票、提问等方式。网络传播方式已成为我国公众表达利益诉求、维护自身权益的重要公共平台。因此,网络舆情对政府制定决策有着重要的影响,同时伴随着很大的压力,并且网络舆情的积极作用与消极作用并存,所以网络舆情状态下政府如何制定好公共政策成为考验政府能力的一个挑战。     

Partisans in Robes: Party Cues and Public Acceptance of Supreme Court Decisions

The public perceives the Supreme Court to be a legal institution. This perception enables the Court's legitimacy‐conferring function, which serves to increase public acceptance of its decisions. Yet, the public acknowledges a political aspect to the Court as well. To evaluate how the public responds to the different images of the Supreme Court, we investigate whether and how depictions of specifically partisan (e.g., Republican) Court rulings shape public acceptance of its decisions while varying institutional, legal, and issue characteristics. Using survey experiments, we find that party cues and partisanship, more so than the imprimatur of the Court, affect public acceptance. We also find that polarization diminishes the effect of party cues. Attributing a decision to the Court does little to increase baseline acceptance or attenuate partisan cue effects. The Court's uniqueness, at least in terms of its legitimacy‐conferring function, is perhaps overstated.     

传播要素视角下网络衍生舆情成因的多维分析

衍生舆情是近年来网络舆情所呈现的新特点,尤其由突发公共事件引发的网络舆情,衍生舆情的出现几乎成为一种必然,其所造成的“二次影响”甚至超过原生舆情,给舆情危机的防范和应对带来了更大的挑战。基于此,从传播要素的视角探讨在由突发公共事件引发网络舆情中出现衍生舆情的成因。研究认为,突发公共事件是衍生舆情出现的前提,其模糊性、关联性和刺激性会对衍生舆情产生直接影响;政府、媒体和公众是衍生舆情形成的重要因素,在信息传播中它们基于各自利益诉求而呈现的不同行为逻辑是衍生舆情产生的根本原因。     

Australia's Political Institutions and the Corruption of Public Opinion1

This article explores structural causes for the decline in the quality of Australia's political and policy conversations. Three are nominated. The first concerns the changing role of the major party organisations. These no longer contribute to agenda setting; they are no longer forums for activist and interest mobilisation; they no longer mobilise and cue a mass base. The second structural change concerns the rise in the role of the media. This is now the primary bridge between the formal political system and the surrounding society, a role for which it is singularly ill‐equipped. The third change concerns the misalignment between the formal political system and Australian society. The formal system was formed in the early twentieth century when Australian society was broadly divided by class allegiance. Those days are long gone. Class has decomposed. A variety of new concerns differentiate and pluralise social attitudes. Possible remedies are then discussed.     

Public Opinion and the Depth of Labour's Crisis

Labour's current problems are the culmination of long‐term trends flowing from the rising cost of tax‐funded services and welfare and voters’ mounting resistance to higher taxes to pay for them. As a result of this, there is now a big gulf between the attitudes of Labour party members, and in particular the supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, and Labour voters—and an even wider gulf with the extra voters Labour needs to win a future election. This gulf is also wide in relation to a range of other issues, including immigration, education and economic ideology. For Labour to return to government, it needs not just to narrow the gulf in policy, but to persuade voters of its ‘valence’ virtues of trust and competence—qualities in relation to which Labour currently lags the Conservatives by large margins.     

Supreme Court Legitimacy and Group-Centric Forces: Black Support for Capital Punishment and Affirmative Action

The Supreme Court has addressed capital punishment and affirmative action many times and, as a result, has had sweeping policymaking effects. For that reason, we argue that black opinion on capital punishment and affirmative action will be shaped by diffuse support for the Court. We also recognize the important role of group-centric forces in shaping black opinion. We find that diffuse support for the Court leads blacks with lower levels of race consciousness to be more supportive of capital punishment and less supportive of affirmative action, positions in line with the Court's decisions on these issues but contrary to black interests. The Court, however, is not able to throw its cloak of legitimacy around its policy position for blacks with the highest levels of group consciousness.     

Shot by the Messenger: Partisan Cues and Public Opinion Regarding National Security and War

Research has shown that messages of intra-party harmony tend to be ignored by the news media, while internal disputes, especially within the governing party, generally receive prominent coverage. We examine how messages of party conflict and cooperation affect public opinion regarding national security, as well as whether and how the reputations of media outlets matter. We develop a typology of partisan messages in the news, determining their likely effects based on the characteristics of the speaker, listener, news outlet, and message content. We hypothesize that criticism of a Republican president by his fellow partisan elites should be exceptionally damaging (especially on a conservative media outlet), while opposition party praise of the president should be the most helpful (especially on a liberal outlet). We test our hypotheses through an experiment and a national survey on attitudes regarding the Iraq War. The results show that credible communication (i.e., “costly” rhetoric harmful to a party) is more influential than “cheap talk” in moving public opinion. Ironically, news media outlets perceived as ideologically hostile can actually enhance the credibility of certain messages relative to “friendly” news sources.

Public Opinion and Military Intervention: Afghanistan,Iraq and Libya

Britain has participated in several military interventions of varying duration, extent and political controversy in recent years. This article analyses public opinion towards the most recent intervention in Libya in 2011, looking at three different aspects of the topic. First, it examines differences in cross‐national attitudes towards military action in Libya amongst NATO countries. Secondly, it then looks in detail at which social groups were more or less likely to approve of British involvement, comparing this with group attitudes towards Britain's role in Afghanistan and Iraq. Thirdly, it assesses how public opinion shifted during the course of the action in Libya, looking at three key indicators of the popular mood: whether Britain was right or wrong to take military action; how well the war is going; and assessments of David Cameron's handling of the conflict. Broader reflections are then made about public opinion towards British involvement in future military action.     

The Epistemic Value of Public Opinion: Theoretical and Practical Considerations

Abstract

This paper discusses the claim that citizens lack sufficient political knowledge to make sound judgements on public matters. It is contended that practical judgements raise essentially two types of claims, namely a claim to empirical truth and a claim to normative rightness, and that there are good reasons to believe that people's insufficient political knowledge undermines both of them. Yet, an examination of the dynamics of public opinion formation reveals that there is an epistemic potential in public opinion, though it is dependent upon the quality of public debate. Building on this idea and on the concept of deliberative responsiveness, two paths of political reform are proposed, which should illustrate the practical implications of the theoretical argument made in this paper by demonstrating how the quality of public debate and, thus, the epistemic value of public opinion could be enhanced.     

言息化时代区域舆论引导策略

现在我国已经进入信息化时代,信息化时代区域舆论有着明显的特点,那就是传播链广泛、传播速度快、容易被人误导等等,这些问题的存在使当前党的舆论引导工作难度不断增大。要想解决信息化时代区域舆论引导问题,必须在分析现区域舆论发展特点的基础上,详细分析舆论传播链,从控制好舆论传播链入手,辅以其他措施实现对区域舆论的有效控制,防止区域舆论异变给区域社会经济发展带来的不利影响。     

The Centre Ground Hypothesis and the Shape of Public Opinion

This article takes issue with the widespread assumption that most people hold moderate political opinions on most issues. Tracing the historical conditions and theoretical assumptions that underpin that idea and testing it against polling from Britain, the author shows that—across economic, social and international affairs—the centre ground is not where most people are at.     

网络舆论与我国民主政治的良性化发展

互联网技术的普及运用带来显著的民主政治效应,表现为打破了信息垄断和旧的话语权力格局,为民意提供了一个自由表达的场所。以互联网为公共载体的网络舆论成为信息时代我国最活跃的民主政治场域。但技术是把双刃剑,网络也不例外。网络舆论的特性决定了它可能造就"优质"民主,也可能带来"劣质"民主。要使网络舆论促进民主政治良性发展,政府需要健全网络舆情监测预警机制,加强网络舆论监督的道德建设与法治建设,提高对网络舆论的回应能力,正确引导网络议题,培养公民精神。     

论负面新闻报道的舆论引导

新闻分为正面报道和负面报道。在新媒体时代,以暴露和批评为主的负面报道,也可以有效地剔除糟粕,净化社会环境,张扬人性的力量。因此,要以崭新的思维与视角来做好负面报道,本着信息为本、受众为本的原则,充分尊重老百姓的知情权,对负面新闻报道做到不夸张、不缩小、不遮掩也不渲染,更杜绝"反面文章正面做",客观、公正、及时、准确、全面地将真实情况告诉受众。让负面报道,特别是灾难新闻报道中的人情、仁爱、人文关怀成为人类苦难的"温柔抚摸者",挖掘负面新闻报道的正面效应。同时,做负面新闻报道时,要揭开事实真相,发挥负面报道的舆论引导作用,积极营造廉洁、廉明、廉正的舆论场,匡正社会风气,维护公平正义。     

Citizen Opinion and Constitutional Choices: The Case of the UK

Political Behavior - In recent years, political scientists have begun to pay greater attention to political institutions and questions of institutional change. This article addresses a question...     

The Semiconstrained Court: Public Opinion,the Separation of Powers,and the U.S. Supreme Court's Fear of Nonimplementation

Numerous studies have found that elite and popular preferences influence decision making on the U.S. Supreme Court; yet, uncertainty remains about when, how, and why the Court is constrained by external pressure. I argue the justices are constrained, at least in part, because they fear nonimplementation of their decisions. I test this theory by utilizing a recent study of judicial power, which finds the Court enjoys greater implementation power in “vertical” cases (those involving criminal and civil liability) than in “lateral” cases (all others; e.g., those involving schools or government agencies). I find that Court constraint is strongest in important lateral cases—those cases in which implementation depends on support from nonjudicial actors. My findings suggest that Supreme Court constraint is driven by the justices' fear of nonimplementation and is, therefore, dependent on institutional context.     

Local,National and Global Islam: Religious Guidance and European Muslim Public Opinion on Political Radicalism and Social Conservatism

The attacks on the Charlie Hebdo magazine and Kosher supermarket in Paris in January 2015, as well as the announcement of a ‘Caliphate’ by radical Islamists of the so-called ‘Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’ (ISIS) in 2014, reignited political and academic interest in the possible appeal of radical Islamism among young Muslims living in Western Europe. This analysis expands existing knowledge by adding a large-n, cross-national comparison to the small-n or single-case-study approaches dominating research on European Muslims over the last two decades. Moving beyond examination of the interaction between European governments and groups claiming to represent European Muslims, this analysis takes into account the individualisation of Muslim religious discourses, practices and identities. Binary logistic regression analyses challenge conventional wisdom which emphasises discrimination and rejection of Western foreign policies in the explanation of political radicalism. Instead, religious guidance and socio-economic status emerge as consistent correlates of political and social attitudes among West European Muslims. These findings not only add to a growing body of literature providing empirical evidence for the political impact of religious elites, they also have crucial policy implications for West European governments working to maintain national security and social cohesion.     

Congress,the Supreme Court,and Judicial Review: Testing a Constitutional Separation of Powers Model

Recent scholarship suggests that the U.S. Supreme Court might be constrained by Congress in constitutional cases. We suggest two potential paths to Congressional influence on the Court's constitutional decisions: a rational‐anticipation model, in which the Court moves away from its preferences in order to avoid being overruled, and an institutional‐maintenance model, in which the Court protects itself against Congressional attacks to its institutional prerogatives by scaling back its striking of laws when the distance between the Court and Congress increases. We test these models by using Common Space scores and the original roll‐call votes to estimate support in the current Congress for the original legislation and the Court's preferences over that legislation. We find that the Court does not appear to consider the likelihood of override in constitutional cases, but it does back away from striking laws when it is ideologically distant from Congress.     

以商谈求共识:行政决策听证中公共意愿的形成

在当前利益主体多元化、利益矛盾加剧的背景下,推进和完善行政决策听证需要解决的一个关键性问题,在于如何协调差异和矛盾,聚集民意,以便为政府决策提供价值前提。协商共识理论为深化行政决策听证的研究提供了新的指向;行政决策听证的功能在于为理性论辩提供建制化空间以集结民意,制约行政决策;在听证议题的形成、听证代表的遴选、话语规范的确立及其制度保障等主要环节中,通过制度程序的建构,排除权力和金钱的侵入,在平等协商对话中整合利益,集结公共意愿。