What price access to the open seas? The geopolitics of oil and gas transmission from the Trans-Caspian republics

In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was the world's largest hydrocarbon producer. The landmass over which these resources are distributed is vast and the reserves mostly landlocked. To convey these hydrocarbons to refineries and to market, the Soviets constructed the largest integrated pipeline networks in the world. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, new competing national interests have produced tensions over these energy resources and transmission corridors, with economically detrimental and often irrational consequences. In Central Asia, the post-Soviet Republics of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan produce significant amounts of hydrocarbons and export their oil and gas to or through Russian Federation territory. Russian government policy aims to continue exercising political control over these resources and to maximize Moscow's share of profits from their export. This paper examines oil and gas transmission issues in Central Asia, against a backdrop of emerging new relationships between the Russian Federation and the three post-Soviet republics, the resurgent strategic competition between Russia and the United States, China's developing power base in the region and Iran's potentially key geographic position for channelling Caspian energy supplies towards the Persian Gulf.     

Correspondence

Sir Tony Brenton, formerly British Ambassador to Moscow (2004-2008), considers in this article the Asian dimension of Russia. He considers the historical connections and importance of Asia (as opposed to Europe) in the development of Russia and the historical balance between Asian and European influence. This section pays particular attention to the development of Siberia and early encounters between Russia and China. He then examines shifting Russian attitudes towards Asia at significant moments in Russian history including the 19^th century (the Slavophile Movement), the Communist period, the post-Soviet 1990s and the current era under President Putin. The implications of the Ukraine crisis and the current relationship with China is studied. He concludes with a discussion of whether Russia is likely to see its future orientation as more towards China and Asia, and what implications Russia's deliberation about its future direction has for the western powers.     

Engaging with Asia: the Chifley Government and the New Delhi Conferences of 1947 and 1949

This article is a study of the Chifley government's foreign policy towards Asia, in particular India and Indonesia, as evidenced by Australia's attendance at the 1947 Asian Relations Conference and the 1949 New Delhi Conference on the Indonesian‐Dutch conflict. Australia's presence at these two conferences provides an ideal opportunity to examine the Chifley government's response to the momentous changes that occurred in post‐war Asia as a result of the dismantling of the European colonial world order. Through detailed examination of the archival material and contemporary accounts generated from Australia's involvement in the New Delhi conferences, this article will argue that despite significant political constraints, the Chifley government did adopt a distinctive and innovative policy towards the emergent nations of Asia in the immediate post‐war years.     

Difficult Partners: Indo‐Australian Relations at the Height of the Cold War, 1949–1964

This article aims to make a long overdue re‐examination of Indo‐Australian relations in the early Cold War years. By drawing on available secondary sources, it reassesses the existing literature on Australian engagement with Asia. In so doing, it seeks to understand the reasons why the Menzies government found it so difficult to forge a close partnership with India. Canberra's rather frosty relations with New Delhi during the Menzies‐Nehru years had little to do with Menzies' alleged condescension towards the Asians or his personal antipathy towards Nehru. Rather, it had to do with the two leaders' different readings of Cold War politics as well as their responses to the structural changes taking place at the international level following the end of the Second World War.     

《雅尔塔秘密协定》背后的中、美、苏关系透析(Ⅱ)

1944年中国正面抗日战场的溃败造成美国太平洋战略的调整和中美关系的恶化,由此大大限制了蒋介石对苏联在未来中国的重要影响的应有认识和与之进行适当外交,导致损害中国主权的《雅尔塔秘密协定》的产生。之后,中国的外交重点依然锁定美国,极力“邀请”美国政府介入中苏关系并影响未来的中苏谈判。然而,出于对苏联追求东亚利益的实力与决心、对苏联参加太平洋战争的需要以及对自身缺乏足够抗衡苏联手段和资源等方面的权衡,美国政府没有接受中国的外交“邀请”,反而协同苏联政府迫使中国直接派团前往莫斯科完成中苏谈判。但中国政府的外交并非没有对美国产生影响,实际上,部分由于中国持续“邀美抗苏”的努力,最终促成了紧随其后在中苏谈判以及未来东北等问题上美国政府公开出面支持中国反对苏联,成为中国内战和东亚冷战爆发的一个起源。     

《雅尔塔秘密协定》背后的中、美、苏关系透析(Ⅰ)

1944年中国正面抗日战场的溃败造成美国太平洋战略的调整和中美关系的恶化,由此大大限制了蒋介石对苏联在未来中国的重要影响的应有认识和与之进行适当外交,导致损害中国主权的《雅尔塔秘密协定》的产生。之后,中国的外交重点依然锁定美国,极力“邀请”美国政府介入中苏关系并影响未来的中苏谈判。然而,出于对苏联追求东亚利益的实力与决心、对苏联参加太平洋战争的需要以及对自身缺乏足够抗衡苏联手段和资源等方面的权衡,美国政府没有接受中国的外交“邀请”,反而协同苏联政府迫使中国直接派团前往莫斯科完成中苏谈判。但中国政府的外交并非没有对美国产生影响,实际上,部分由于中国持续“邀美抗苏”的努力,最终促成了紧随其后在中苏谈判以及未来东北等问题上美国政府公开出面支持中国反对苏联,成为中国内战和东亚冷战爆发的一个起源。     

区域安全竞争中的东亚区域主义——基于对欧洲/北美区域主义的比较分析

区域主义的启动和深化受区域内外安全环境的影响。欧洲区域主义的启动和深化与其内外安全环境之间呈正相关关系,因而它得以历经冷战而不衰,并在冷战后进一步强化。比较而言,北美区域主义的深化与其内外安全环境总体上都是负相关关系,因而北美区域主义至今基本上仍仅限于经济领域。与北美区域主义类似,东亚区域主义的深化与东亚区域内外安全环境也基本上是负相关关系,但不同的是,由于东亚区域的内部安全环境是竞争性的,因此东亚区域的"共同体感觉"虽然呈日益强化之势,但总体上说是脆弱的。东亚区域主义的深化不仅受区域内部安全竞争的挑战,还受到区域外部的竞争性安全环境———区域间大国和全球大国安全竞争———的制约。     

The evolution of Japan's role in ‘Lusophone’ Africa: From inertia to action

This article explores Japan's relations with Lusophone Africa over the past 60 years. It asks what factors have propelled Japan's shift from a foreign policy based on inertia to a more proactive one. Arguably, colonialism and postcolonialism linked to the Cold War politics had a negative impact on Japan's relations with the Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP) and Africa as a whole; this contrasts with Japan's process of ‘Africanisation’ after 1990, reflective of changing external and internal circumstances. The question arises as to whether Japan's relations with the specific PALOP states, and with the group as a whole, have been influenced by, or have had influence over, Japan's long-term approach to other African states. Lastly, what characterises Japan's approach to the PALOP? Findings show mutual gains beyond the simple exploitation of natural resources towards broad-based sustainable growth. Still, from the perspective of the poorest PALOP, development cooperation and trade benefits are unbalanced and insufficient.     

Australian‐Asian Sociability,Student Activism,and the University Challenge to White Australia in the 1950s

During the 1950s, staff, students and graduates of Australian universities were increasingly critical of the racial restrictions on immigration, and their activism contributed to a broader government and community reassessment of the White Australia Policy. Personal experiences of cross‐cultural interactions between Australian students and an increasing number of international students from Asia, including those sponsored by the Australian government's Colombo Plan, underpinned the university challenge to immigration policy. Tertiary curriculum offering new academic interpretations of Asian history and decolonisation also contributed to a growing awareness among university‐educated Australians of Asia, and fostered empathy for its peoples. The publications of the Immigration Reform Group extended this critique of White Australia, and were driven by a moral indignation towards a policy that affected individuals personally known to the critics.     

From sultanism to neopatrimonialism? Regionalism within Turkmenistan

This paper proposes that under President Berdimuhamedov, the government of Turkmenistan has begun to move away from the ‘sultanism’ of the Niyazov era. Instead, the new government exhibits characteristics and has pursued policy changes that prepare conditions for the further development and entrenchment of localized networks of elites based on kinship. Such changes suggest that the government of Turkmenistan may develop into a more classic neopatrimonial system of authoritarian governance similar to the other post-Soviet republics in Central Asia. This argument is advanced by examining changes between the governments of former President Niyazov and Berdimuhamedov with regard to three areas of the Turkmen state's relationship with its constituent regions: regional composition of the national cabinet; hakim (governor) policy; and regional development. This examination relies largely on a comprehensive survey of online Turkmen state-media sources, as well as numerous supportive secondary sources.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on Russia's Agriculture

The article analyzes the impact of WTO accession on Russia's agricultural sector. Three aspects of WTO rules that will affect Russian agriculture are examined: (1) financial support from the Russian government, (2) market access for foreign imports, and (3) market access for Russia's food exports. Addressing the question of positive and negative impacts on Russia's agricultural sector, the article asks if a pessimistic view that sees primarily negative consequences as a result of accession is justified. Claims made by skeptics who are dismissive of the impact WTO entry will have on Russian agriculture are also considered.     

Notes and news

Russia and Asia have an ambiguous relationship. More than half of Russia is geographically in Asia and much of its history, too. Peter the Great switched Russia's main focus to Europe. But by the middle of the 19^th century the “Slavophiles” were contesting that “Westernising” view as the Russian Empire expanded. After World War II, the USSR played an important ideological role in Asia, until the failure of the invasion of Afghanistan. The ensuing collapse of the USSR resulted in a smaller, much more “European” Russia, which the West was nonetheless not eager to embrace. Today, the dynamic economies of Asia offer opportunities, not least as a market for Russia's energy exports. But the legacy of Peter the Great lives on.     

A democratic dictator's success: how Chad's President Deby defeated the military opposition in three years (2008–2011)

This article focuses on how President Deby re-gained power after a nearly successful coup d'état against him in February 2008. The analysis points towards one major external reason for success and a divided internal strategy. The international community's little interest in Chad and the desire for political stability among the few interested states are the main external reasons for Deby's success. Internally, Deby's use of violence and co-optation explain his success. Deby defeated the Chadian military opposition by combining co-optation of adversaries in Chad's patrimonial marketplace.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

The views of the Chinese statesman on the par Eastern problem (1921)

The phrase “The Great Game” was first used in the context of Russia and Central Asia by the ill-fated Captain Conolly in 1840. For Conolly, the game metaphor signified a contest in which the Russians were Britain's potential opponents, while the Central Asians were her immediate ones. Indeed Conolly, like Thorburn, a later writer, seems even to have envisaged Russia as Britain's partner in the work of civilizing Asia. Boulger, tried to use the phrase to signify Anglo-Russian confrontation but interestingly the phrase was little used in the literature on Central Asia until Kipling's “Kim” endowed it with a popularity and the implication of great power rivalry which it had not previously enjoyed. In fact widespread use only came after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, though “The Great Game” is now in ever more frequent use to signify American/Russian rivalry. Kipling's use has triumphed over Conolly's.     

The Reappraisal of the White Australia Policy against the Background of a Changing Asia, 1945–67*

This paper is concerned with the way in which Australian policy‐makers approached the problem of “White Australia” in the years 1945–67. It makes extensive use of original archival material to show how Australia's increasing engagement with Asia in the 1950s and 1960s exercised a direct influence on officials within the Department of Immigration. In response to Australia's changing geopolitical circumstances and the international community's increasing hostility towards racism during this period, Immigration Department officials persuaded the government to introduce a series of piecemeal adjustments which were specifically designed to placate Asian and world opinion. Although cautious, these changes nevertheless involved a corresponding reassessment of the policy's racial assumptions. By accepting in the late 1960s that certain Asians were capable of being integrated into the Australian community, policymakers had discarded the previously inviolable belief that all non‐Europeans were unassimilable by virtue of their race. The White Australia Policy, though not entirely defunct by the end of the decade, was nevertheless crumbling under the weight of Australia's new circumstances.     

Competitive Cooperation for Regional Development: Japan's New Strategy towards Rising China

This article questions why Japan has taken a neutral position in the Sino‐American trade tensions in 2018, despite its political rivalry with Beijing. It claims that the Japanese strategy towards China between 2012 and 2018 has moved from confrontational competition to competitive cooperation over third‐country markets; this is because of their shared beliefs and methodology regarding regional development. The paper undertakes three major tasks. Firstly, it compares Chinese and Japanese academic discussions regarding East Asia. It finds that experts on both sides admit the significant implications of the politico‐economic divide in the regional system. However, the realistic Chinese tend to consider the divide as a problem to be solved through power, whereas the more liberal Japanese expect it to provide a coordinating function for the regional order as a whole. Secondly, the article reviews the shifts in the Japanese government's behaviours toward China in recent years. It argues that Japan has moved for collaboration with China to maintain the liberal rule‐based order in the region. Finally, founded on the estimate of China's economic leverage over its neighbours, the paper claims that Japan will expand its responsibility in order formation in East Asia in future, becoming more independent from American influences.     

The Bush Administration's 'Alliance-Based' East Asia Policy

The US will face major foreign policy challenges in East Asia in the twenty-first century. In this article, Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, examines the Bush administration's policy towards East Asia which he argues continues to be alliance-based. The principal issues include: the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula; China's potential emergence as a regional power and the sensitive topic of the Taiwan Strait, Japan's struggle with economic and constitutional reform and an unstable Indonesia. The administration's stated commitment to missile defense has been well publicized and the security implications of this for the region are also examined by Cossa. Although a ''Vision statement'' on the Asia-Pacific is still lacking and needed, he argues that the basic components of the Bush administration's Asia strategy appear to be well-formed.     

Some Talk,No Action (Yet): Interdependence,Domestic Interests and Hierarchical EU Governance in Climate Policy

This article analyses why Switzerland has so far remained outside the European Union's emissions trading system (EU ETS), the centerpiece of the EU's efforts to combat climate change. In doing so, it contributes three insights to the literature on the EU's external governance. First, it shows that interdependence is of limited explanatory power in predicting EU–Swiss interactions. Secondly, it identifies domestic interests in the non‐member state, Switzerland, as the key factor in explaining the EU's external governance structures concerning emissions trading. Thirdly, it highlights the EU's limited flexibility in dealing with third countries in areas where its internal governance mode is hierarchical. The article presents a hypothesis about the future development of emissions trading in Switzerland and discusses implications for both the external governance literature and the development of global carbon markets.     

The incompatibility of peacemaking and military power

Since the 1990s, the Sino-Cameroonian relationship has grown rapidly. Today, China plays a key role in Cameroon's economic development, particularly in regards to infrastructure projects. However, in the last few years, Yaoundé's partnership with Beijing has encountered an increasing number of obstacles. Behind the warm pro-China rhetoric, the Cameroonian government has become more willing to rebalance their country's external relations, in favour of both its traditional partners and other emerging economies.