Economic Interdependence and the Balance of Power

To account for variance in great powers responses to threats and the implications for the peacefulness of the international system since the late nineteenth century, this article elucidates a theory which refines and synthesizes economic liberal perspectives and realist balance of power theory. I argue that different patterns and levels of economic interdependence in the great power system generate societal-based economic constraints on, or incentives for, state leaders of status quo powers hoping to mobilize economic resources and political support to oppose perceived threats. This mobilization process influences strongly the preferences of status quo powers, other states beliefs about those preferences, and the interpretation of signals in balance of power politics. In this way, economic ties influence the strategies great powers pursue. Firm balancing policies conducive to peace in the international system are most likely, I then hypothesize, when there are extensive economic ties among status quo powers and few or no such links between them and perceived threatening powers. When economic interdependence is not significant between status quo powers or if status quo powers have strong economic links with threatening powers, weaker balancing postures and conciliatory policies by status quo powers, and aggression by aspiring revisionist powers, are more likely. I then illustrate how these hypotheses explain the development of the Franco-Russian alliance of the 1890s and its effectiveness as a deterrent of Germany up to 1905, British ambivalence toward Germany from 1906 to the First World War, the weakness of British, French, Soviet, and American behavior toward Germany in the 1930s and World War II, and the American and European responses to the Soviet threat, including the NATO alliance, and the "long peace" of the post-1945 era.     

东亚悖论:经济依存与安全戒备

目前对东亚安全起重要作用的中美日三大国在经济上处于一定程度的依存状态。一般来说,经济依存是政治与安全合作的基础。然而目前美国及其战略伙伴日本却倒行逆施加强对中国的围堵,使得目前东亚的地缘政治竞争反而变得愈加紧张。为什么造成这样的悖论?本文认为,东亚的安全局势受两个结构性因素的影响:一是由相互经济依存带来的国家间合作的要求;二是传统的国际政治结构带来的国家间地缘政治竞争。之所以出现这种受双重结构影响的状态,原因在于经济依存关系没有彻底克服传统的国际政治结构性影响,是不平衡与综合发展规律的作用。不平衡与综合发展规律使得各国融入全球经济的程度不同,各国彼此之间在经济上相互依存程度不同,不同的国家在经济全球化进程中所发挥的作用不同。这三者在国际政治中产生的结果是,地缘政治的竞争仍在一定程度上在一些国家间发挥着结构性作用。这样,在这种双重结构性因素共同的作用下,东亚安全局势处于一种悖论状态。     

Reflections on Globalisation,Security and 9/11

The study of globalisation carries important conceptual insights into the contemporary security agenda following the events of September 11th 2001 ('9/11'). This article argues that globalisation can be defined in a variety of ways, ranging from liberalisation to Westernisation, and can also be extended into concepts of supra-territorialisation. In combination, these definitions help to explain the generation of 9/11 style-conflict by providing the political-economic motivation for hyper-terrorism, by facilitating the political identities and activities of non-state actors; and by creating an environment for the global reach of terror movements. Additionally, the interconnection between globalisation and security can be seen in the response of the United States to 9/11 and its striving to project military power on a global scale with declining reference to time and geographical distance, and the varied ability of sovereign states to respond to the challenge of trans-sovereign security problems in the future.     

Reading The Economist on Globalisation: Knowledge,Identity, and Power

The UK-based magazine The Economist portrays globalisation as a positive extension of liberal capitalism. While consistent with the magazine's pro-market bent, the rationale for the coverage is complex, since many readers presumably share the magazine's dominant code and do not need persuasion. This paper first explores tactics used to limit discourse on globalisation to realms of economic knowledge, while devaluing knowledge from other domains. Then, using cultural theories of how people read, I argue that coverage provokes reader anxieties about a changing world--while allaying them through tales of a future in which growth continues, the lot of the poor improves, and power remains vested in the institutions, knowledge, and people that have it currently. As such, The Economist provides a utopian vision of the future and tools for shaping identity to fractions of dominant groups seeking to define their strategies in a changing world.     

中日经济相互依赖性对中国产业安全的影响研究

改革开放以来,随着经济对外开放,大量外资涌入我国,而其中日资对我国产业发展和产业结构的演进产生了广泛的影响,增进了我国与日本之间的经济相互依赖性。一方面,利用日资促进了我国的经济发展。另一方面,也产生了外资对中国产业的控制力,影响国家的经济安全。为了降低我国产业发展的风险,我国应注意建立市场准入制度,增加支柱产业的中国投资比例,提高自主创新能力,优化金融环境,以促进我国产业的健康发展。     

从复合相互依赖理论看中国与东盟的关系

东盟各国在文化传统、经贸往来以及地缘政治方面都与中国关系十分密切。从"海上丝绸之路"到华人移居东南亚浪潮,中国与东盟各国始终在官方和民间保持着多渠道的交流,进行着长期绵延不断的经济文化交往。自1994年中     

全球能源安全对话与合作--能源相互依赖时代的战略选择

随着全球化和能源相互依赖程度的日益加深,能源安全问题越来越具全球性,国际能源安全合作也逐渐由国别、集团向全球范围扩展。在这种情况下,以能源独立为目标的传统能源安全观念和保障体系变得越来越不现实。为应对诸多共同风险与挑战,国际社会越来越需要加强全球能源安全对话与合作,努力推动全球能源安全体系的建立。     

Power, Morality, and Foreign Policy

Despite the vast amounts of rhetoric one hears in the United States on the role of morality in international politics, the nation lacks a coherent position on the appropriate application of morality to foreign policy. History reflects two prominent and contrasting views on the subject. The first is that morality is irrelevant to national foreign policy; the second applies common principles of individual morality—compassion, generosity, forgiveness, benevolence, and tolerance—to interactions between states. Though elements of each are evident in the Bush administration's foreign policy, the limits on them restrict the efficacy of either. As the application of morality to foreign policy becomes both more necessary and more difficult, prudence and decency—more than self-righteousness or power—should provide the primary inspiration for American foreign policy.     

权力·安全·女性主义

权力与安全是国际关系学的两个重要概念,更是现实主义理论范式追求的两大核心价值。女性主义在批判国际关系学中严重存在的社会性别歧视过程中,对这两个概念进行了认真的反思,在揭露女性在相关问题上遭受的不公正待遇的同时,提出了自己有关权力与安全的见解。     

论互相依赖的有限与国家政策对全球化影响的限制

全球国际体系的基本性质在变动中的继续，颇大程度上归因于互相依赖仍有相当大 局限：（1）全球国际／跨国非政治性交往大部分是在发达世界内部进行；（2）发达世界与 欠发达世界之间的非政治性交往大部分是从前者到后者的单向流动；（3）欠发达国家及其 社会互相间的交往只是全球交往总和中的最小部分。迄今为止全球化只是在发达世界之内才 造就了真正的互相依赖。与此相关，互相依赖的两大特性——敏感性与易受伤害性——在分 布上也大不平衡：欠发达国家与发达国家相比，一般有大得多的敏感性与易受伤害性，其原 因是两者间互相依赖的严重不对称。国际／跨国互相依赖的相当大局限性还表现为大多数国 家相当广泛和顽强地限制互相依赖，或者说采取限制和抵制全球化影响的政策。用根本的政 治经济学哲理来说，在市场与国家这一关系中，当市场削弱或剥夺国家的某些权能时，国家 会倾向于抵抗，并且谋求新的权能。     

论巨额贸易逆差与美国经济增长的依存关系

美国巨额贸易逆差在很大程度上源于美国经济的持续增长与旺盛的社会需求,同时又推动了美国经济的稳定增长,并与经济增长形成了长期依存关系.美元特权则对此提供了金融保障.但美国持续保持巨额贸易逆差终究会冲击美元的地位,强化其贬值趋势,从而给美国及经济上与之依存度大的国家带来风险.     

大数据时代的网络安全治理:议题领域与权力博弈

网络空间治理的核心问题包括由谁治理、治理什么、如何实现公平有效的治理等。网络安全治理的议题包括对网络基础设施、流动于其中的数据、网络内容与文化和网络行为等的治理。治理的目标包括通过治理确保国家安全、谨防网络军事化趋势、避免陷入网络战漩涡、维护社会稳定,反对网络恐怖主义,打击网络犯罪,确保基础设施安全、个人信息与人身安全。在治理过程中又需要注意提升国家参与网络空间治理的能力,具体包括技术性权力、解释性权力和制度性权力,进而努力实现公平、有序的治理。     

世界新格局与国际安全

世纪之交,世界正处于向新格局转变的关键时期。随着冷战后国际形势和国际安全环境的巨变,与冷战时期截然不同的新安全观应运而生。国际普遍安全的目标既面临难得的机遇与也面临严峻的挑战,国际社会须共同努力建立基于新安全观的公正合理的国际新秩序。