Japanese Energy Security Revisited

Facing the surge of “resource nationalism” in energy-producing countries and the rapid growth of energy demand in China and India, the Japanese government has decided to play an active role in securing its energy import, which decision seems to have received the solid support of the people. Effective support by the government to business, needless to say, is welcomed. However, experience teaches that excessive intervention in energy procurement by non-business sectors would do no good and a lot of harm for Japan's stable energy supply in the future. Furthermore, foreseeing a future energy balance in Japan, the country should refrain from engaging in the so-called “scramble for energy” occurring globally. This paper sets out in detail the argument that it is in Japan's best interests to eliminate to as great an extent as possible any political dimension from an energy product such as oil in order to reduce its importance as a strategic commodity and strengthen its characteristics as a market commodity.     

Economic Growth,Regime Insecurity,and Military Strategy: Explaining the Rise of Noncombat Operations in China

Abstract

Although China's armed forces have yet to complete its ambitious modernization program, its military strategy has begun to emphasize the ability to conduct noncombat operations such as disaster relief and peacekeeping in addition to traditional war fighting. This new component of China's military strategy is best explained by an unexpected relationship between economic growth and regime security. Although growth is key to the legitimacy of leaders in developing countries, it also creates new sources of domestic unrest and increases the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks, both of which, if unchecked, can harm future growth. As a result, developing countries such as China may use their armed forces to maintain political stability and provide services that the state lacks, such as emergency disaster relief. These conclusions are based on original data from China.     

Coping with energy insecurity: China’s response in global perspective

Already the world’s second largest energy consumer, China has accounted for more than a third of the increase in global oil demand since 2000. Due to infrastructural bottlenecks as well as supply shortages, intensified by sustained growth, the PRC is likely to become an increasingly important factor in global oil and gas markets, and to pursue an increasingly active energy diplomacy. Reducing energy vulnerability will be a key imperative. The PRC is striving to reduce its energy vulnerability by: (1) promoting energy efficiency; (2) diversifying away from its heavy reliance on coal and oil, toward nuclear power and natural gas; (3) improving domestic energy infrastructure; (4) promoting national energy champions; (5) deepening reliance on congenial nations; and (6) reducing reliance on sea lanes dominated by the U.S. Navy. Kazakhstan, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Australia, and African energy producers are special priority targets of its energy diplomacy, which is likely to become more salient in China's overall foreign policy in coming years.     

From Polarisation to Integration in Vietnam

This paper analyses the growth trajectory of China and related structural change to assess China's capacity to continue its rapid growth over the next decade. The evidence demonstrates that the multi-path approach undertaken has enabled China to transform its economy from low value-added towards high value-added activities through structural change from low to high value-added industries, as well as upgrading within industries. In doing so, China did not follow the neo-liberal advocacy of freeing markets. Selective state interventions facilitated China's transformation from an agricultural to an industrial economy over the last few decades. Upgrading towards higher value-added activities and the continuing strength of macroeconomic indicators, such as balance of payment and capital account surpluses, and low trade intensity of GDP and debt service along with significant deepening in human capital and R&;D activities, suggests that China will continue to grow relatively rapidly over the next decade. To do this China needs to find solutions to growing deficits in power and water supply, and potentially dangerous political upheavals if growing economic inequality problems are not solved.     

The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.     

日本城市能源利用与节能减排

日本是世界第三大经济实体,同时也是资源消费大国。作为一个本身自然资源匮乏的国度,日本是如何在发展经济的同时,克服了能源短缺的问题?又是如何在提高能源利用效率的同时将对环境的污染控制到最低限度的?围绕上述问题,探讨日本在城市能源利用方面的节能措施以及对新能源在环保领域中所起的重要作用的同时,梳理了在京都会议后,日本的节能环保技术、理念,以及未来的发展趋势,以期为中国解决在新常态下,在推动城镇化经济发展的同时所面临的能源以及环境问题提供思路。     

中俄、中澳能源合作比较研究——合理性、有效性、可持续性探析

为了减少对中东能源的依赖,中国实施了能源进口多元化、拓展海外能源产地的战略,加强了与俄罗斯、澳大利亚等国的能源合作。俄、澳两国作为中国的重点合作对象,在能源结构、国内制度、与中国合作的模式等方面有着各自的特点。从合理性、有效性、可持续性三个视角对中俄、中澳能源合作进行比较分析,有助于我们探寻两种合作模式的成功经验以及如何克服不利因素的影响。     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

The “Greening” of China: Progress,Limitations, and Contradictions

China’s rapid economic growth in the last three decades has been fuelled by energy-intensive investment and manufacturing, which have become instrumental for China to become the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power parity, and for the United States and the European Union to have access to cheap consumer goods. China’s development strategy, however, has generated a serious domestic environmental crisis, which has also accelerated the global climate emergency. In addition, the 2008 economic crisis led to a collapse of China’s external demand, inducing the leadership to support domestic investment – including investment in environmental projects – as an alternative source of effective demand. By setting ambitious green targets and by adopting strategic policy initiatives, China has become the world’s largest investor in renewable energy. Yet China remains the world’s largest coal consumer and the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter. The Chinese economy nears a crossroad: will it be able to maintain its commitment to green energies or will it fall back to its historical reliance on fossil fuels to sustain growth? This article evaluates the interplay between China’s economy and environment over the course of the reform period, and investigates the set of forces that impinge upon China’s ecological future.     

浅析中国与东盟的能源合作

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的基本要素之一。随着中国经济的快速增长,中国对外能源需求量逐年增长,能源安全成了人们普遍关注的一个全球性的热点问题。因此,中国应通过积极参与双边与多边的能源合作,采取多元化的油气资源供给途径,来保障中国的油气资源的安全供给。随着东盟与中国政治经济关系的升温,东盟各国在中国的能源安全领域扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文在对中国能源现状进行分析的基础上,对中国与东盟开展能源合作这一议题进行剖析,浅析其合作的必要性、可行性及其前景。     

中印构建命运共同体的内涵、困境与可能性

中国和印度同为发展中国家,近年来迅速崛起受到世界关注,但由于战略和认知差异、边界问题、巴基斯坦问题以及域外大国的干扰等因素的影响,两国关系不断下滑。印度借助自身实力的增长和美国"印太战略"实施,不断挑起与邻国的矛盾,特别是加大力度与中国竞争,与其他国家一起制衡中国。在此背景下,中印命运共同体建设将面临巨大的困境和挑战。同时,中印在命运共同体构建过程中也存在认知偏差和"单向构建"的问题。不解决这些问题,中印要构建命运共同体将十分困难。近期,边界问题仍然是双方误解和矛盾加深的"爆发点",也是中印命运共同体构建的难点,这使得中印的博弈还会继续。但由于中印合作对双方、地区乃至世界影响巨大,和平共处、共同发展符合双方的共同利益。从博弈论中的"懦夫博弈"和"重复博弈"视角来看,博弈的策略会影响彼此的行为和偏好,而目前双方有避免热战的共同点,也有加强非传统安全领域的合作空间,未来双方构建命运共同体仍然存在可能性。中印双方应把握机遇,相互调整行为与偏好,不断增加构建命运共同体的正能量,以促进互利共赢、共同发展。     

China's Economic and Social Development and the International Scene

China's phenomenal economic growth had a tremendous impact on the international scene, in terms of both China's international behavior and the state of the international system. China has become a welcomed presence in the international community in many ways. However, there are also consequences of growth that cause international concern: the rapid growth of its military capability without accompanying improvements in transparency, strengthened ties with problem states caused by growing domestic energy demands, and possible diversion of domestic discontents abroad that might be intensified by growing nationalism. In terms of the international system, the most notable is China's expanding presence in the surrounding region, but it is not leading to a China-centered region because of other important concurrent developments. The growing relationship between China and another rapidly rising power, India, and the US involvement with both countries are leading to the formation of a new triangular relationship in Asia.     

The Contemporary Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership: Challenges and Opportunities for the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

Today many aspects of the Sino-Russian relationship are positive. The “strategic cooperative partnership” is supported by the Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation, as well as membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and a shared commitment to a multipolar world. Nevertheless, the economic foundation of the relationship is weak, energy cooperation has not reached its potential, and the two states have competing interests in Central Asia. Thus, this article argues that although the Sino-Russian relationship is multifaceted and based on practical considerations, there are nevertheless factors that limit the relationship. China and Russia have links with the West that sometimes interfere in their relationship with each other. Moreover, the legacy of history remains in the background of the relationship. Finally, Russia's demographic decline, combined with China's economic growth, creates questions for Russians regarding their long-term security vis-à-vis China.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

China’s Surging Energy Demand: Trigger for Conflict or Cooperation with Japan?

This article revisits a conventional interpretation of Sino-Japanese energy relations from geopolitical and zero-sum viewpoints. Contemporary Sino-Japanese disputes over the East China Sea and their scramble over a crude-oil pipeline from Russia have drawn global attention to the intensification of the rivalry between the two giant energy consumers. Beijing and Tokyo, however, have gradually found common interests resulting from business opportunities, environmental countermeasures, etc. Russia’s failure in driving a wedge between China and Japan, and the United States’ proactive engagement in Asia-Pacific energy issues, appear to provide new opportunities in which the East Asian powers’ energy rivalry can be reduced.

Japan’s Policy Toward China Under Strong Anti-Chinese Sentiment: A Case of Terminating Yen Loans to China

2004 was the year when the Japanese public's affinity with China dropped dramatically, to 37.6?%, due to anti-Japan riots in China. Now more than 70?% of the Japanese public does not feel an affinity with China. How could such a strong anti-Chinese sentiment influence Japan's policy toward China? This paper considers this question by examining Japan's decision-making process on terminating the much-criticized yen loans to China. Yen loans are a type of Official Development Assistance (ODA) provided by the Japanese government to countries lacking sufficient funds for economic development. China is one of the top yen loan borrowers, and the loans have contributed to China's economic growth and increasing openness. However, in March 2005, Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing that Japan intended to phase out the yen loans before the 2008 Beijing Olympics and reached an agreement on the matter. Two-and-a-half years later, Japan terminated its yen loans to China, as the foreign ministers had agreed. Through mainly firsthand documents and interviews with government officials, this paper will clarify the following two points: (1) While it is true that the Japanese government significantly reduced its yen loan package to China from 2001 onward due to domestic criticism of China, as pointed out by previous studies, it was not planning to terminate the yen loans as of summer 2004. Instead, the Japanese government was contemplating how to keep providing yen loans to China; (2) Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, who was appointed in September 2004, had pushed for the termination of yen loans to China only after anti-Chinese sentiment rose dramatically in summer 2004, because he felt that continuing the much-criticized yen loans would not benefit stable Japan-China relations. This paper sheds light on the background of the termination of yen loans to China, a major milestone in postwar Japan-China relations that had been unclear until now. Having said this, the more important point of this paper may be that it also shows the influence of strong anti-Chinese sentiment on Japan's policies toward China.     

中日贸易的新发展、新变化及问题

新世纪以来,中日贸易规模进一步扩大,贸易商品结构也发生了新的变化。由于中国经济崛起而日本经济低迷,中国在日本对外贸易中的地位迅速提高,而日本在中国对外贸易中的地位却明显下降。中日贸易发展对中日两国经济都产生了积极的作用和影响,也存在一些不可忽视的问题,必须认真对待,尽快解决。     

The rise of China: Threats,uncertainties, and opportunities

The attraction of China's enormous market is lending strength to its position in international negotiations, and China's high rate of economic development is serving to reinforce the legitimacy of its political system. But China's increasing defense expenditures, made possible by such economic growth, are heightening tension among neighboring countries who perceive China as a threat. Kiichi Saeki examines these positive and negative implications of China's rapid economic growth. Saeki is concurrently executive advisor to IIPS and vice president of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain. He was formerly the president and chairman of Nomura Research Institute and president of the Defense College.     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.     

China's fascination with the development of Singapore

Singapore has achieved rapid economic growth and has also managed to maintain a stable social order, characteristics that make it attractive to China as a model for future development, according to Professor John Wong, Research Director of the East Asian Institute (EAI), National University of Singapore. The Singapore government has played a vital role in fostering economic development, and while it has eschewed mandatory economic planning in favor of support for free enterprise and open competition, it has nevertheless been very active in providing macro economic guidance for the economy, and in managing a number of economic and business activities. The success of the government's participation in economic development has been made possible by a strong political leadership dedicated to the pursuit of economic growth, an efficient and incorruptible public administration, and an effective legal system. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Symposium on the Government's Role in the Market Economy, held at the China Institute for Reform and Development (CIRD), Haikou, Hainan, China, in January 1997.