中、日、韩三国产业的互补性与竞争性——基于对外贸易的分析

随着韩国与中国经济的快速发展,中、日、韩三国产业结构与产业发展的差距有所缩小。当前三国之间的国际分工仍留有“雁行模式”的痕迹,制造业在三国均占有主导地位,但制造业内部各部门的发展水平仍有差距,三国在对外贸易中表现出来的产业互补性仍然较强。而另一方面,韩国与中国资本、技术密集型行业的发展对日本形成了竞争,韩国在少数劳动密集型行业同中国也存在竞争,三国产业在原先以互补性为主的基础上出现逐渐增强的竞争趋势。     

The Double Logic of Internal Purges: New Evidence from Francoist Spain

Abstract

States often engage in internal purges to eliminate political dissidents within their own ranks. However, partly because of the absence of reliable data, we know little about the logic and dynamics of these purges, particularly of lower-rank members of the state. Why do state authorities persecute these individuals when they do not entail a clear threat to the regime? We focus on the purges of public-school teachers during the early years of Francisco Franco’s regime in Spain. Using detailed historical sources, we explore whether teachers were more likely to be purged following the two main cleavages in 1930s Spain: the left-right divide and the center-periphery (i.e., nationalist) cleavage. Our results suggest that while the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) was still unfolding Francoist authorities targeted mainly teachers from leftist localities, thus focusing on potential security threats behind the frontlines. After winning the war, Francoists started to target more intensively teachers from national minority groups in order to promote nation-building policies leading to their assimilation. Our findings highlight the double logic of purging as both a preemptive measure against internal threats and as a nation-building tool.     

China and Japan: ‘Hot Economics,Cold Politics’

According to integration theory, growing economic interdependence between China and Japan should have spilled over into more cordial political relations. The opposite occurred, as summarized in the phrase “hot economics, cold politics.” Even as both sides acknowledge the value of cooperation for shared benefit, commercial and strategic rivalries have intensified, calling into question the validity of integration theory.     

新时代,中国对日外交“新视角”——简评习近平“对日外交思想”

时值2018年中国进入新时代和《中日和平友好条约》缔结40周年之际,中日关系也迎来了新的历史转机。在新时代和重大历史新起点上,中日都需要对彼此有新的认识,而中国的对日新认识和新视角则蕴含在中国新一代最高领导人对日外交思想的宏大战略运筹中。通过对习近平的对日外交思想的梳理、归纳和总结,不仅可以对近十年来的中日关系的发展历程,从中国的立场出发加以总结,而且将中日关系放到习近平的对日外交思想这一宏大框架中加以展望,对认识中日关系的未来走向也具有十分特殊的战略意义。     

Aid Politics and Electoral Politics: Japan, 1970–1992

We broaden the analysis of aid flows by investigating the effects of domestic and transnational electoral politics on Japanese overseas development assistance(ODA). We also consider measures of external financial balance and Japan's importance in the international trading system. We present a method for assessing shifts in Japanese ODA policy. We find that Liberal Democratic Party popularity affects the size of the Japanese ODA budget and the way that ODA is allocated. There is also limited evidence that ODA allocations are sensitive to the timing of U.S. elections. By contrast, Japan's changing importance in the international trading system and its current account and exchange rate positions account for little of the inter-temporal variation in Japanese ODA policy.     

The October Crisis Revisited: Counterterrorism as Strategic Choice,Political Result,and Organizational Practice

Counterterrorism is generally understood in terrorism research as the product of rational strategic choice by governments. This is rarely the case, however: Strategic choice is often heavily circumscribed by the effects of crisis, when factors become significant drivers of government action. This paper uses the October Crisis of 1970 to demonstrate how the assumption of rational choice can be very misleading, and argues that scholarly research on counterterrorism needs a more nuanced understanding of how a governments' intent is translated into action.     

“Reformology”: The Case of Slovakia

Over the eight years beginning with the election of a reformist government in September 1998, Slovakia achieved a remarkable turnaround from reform laggard into one of the leaders among the postcommunist transitions of Central and Eastern Europe. This article examines the lessons learned from this successful transition, which demonstrates that quick and effective implementation of a cogent set of economic reforms can produce positive short-term economic results, with favorable and prompt political benefits. Foreign governments, multinational financial institutions, and nationals with technical training abroad who return home to serve in key positions can make a real difference.     

中美日三边经济关系：新世纪，新变化

进入新世纪头10年,中美日三边经济关系随着中美日三国经济增长和经济实力对比关系的改变而出现了显著变化,即：中国的地位快速提升,而日本的地位明显下降,美国的地位虽有下降但依旧十分重要。分别从中美日三个国家的视角审视三边关系,则主要表现为：中国从倚重日本转变为倚重美国,美国从美日经济摩擦转变为美中摩擦,而日本则从对美依赖转为对华依赖。这种变化将构成新世纪全球经济格局和大国经济关系调整的重要动向。     

日本新能源汽车市场推广策略对我国的借鉴

我国新能源汽车的市场表现一直"叫好不叫座",这对我国新能源汽车产业发展构成了严重的制约。怎样提高新能源汽车的市场认同度,进一步促进市场推广,成为亟待解决的问题。日本自20世纪80年代起便开始重视发展新能源汽车产业化及市场推广,积累了大量富有价值的文献及实践经验,对研究我国新能源汽车市场长期遇冷的原因及解决对策具有重要的借鉴意义。笔者以日本近年来新能源汽车市场化现状为背景,探讨新能源汽车市场推广的影响因素,分析日本在促进新能源汽车市场推广方面采取的措施和实施效果,以此提出解决我国新能源汽车市场问题的建议及对策。     

“A Projected New Trusteeship”? American Internationalism, British Imperialism, and the Reconstruction of Iran, 1938-1947

Diplomatic histories identify an early cold war “paradigm shift” as restoring the troubled Anglo-American “special relationship.” However, an integrated analysis of Second World War and post-war Iran suggests continuity in ideologically based Anglo-American differences on the reconstruction of the postwar world economic periphery, and that this was the defining context for crucially elusive relations during successive crises to come. The Americans had embraced Iran as an exemplar of “new deal internationalism,” being as much opposed to competing British neo-imperialist political and economic models there as to Soviet encroachments. They continued to identify autonomous British policies and interests antipathetically during the early cold war period and beyond, not merely out of economic self-interest, but at crucial moments disavowing geopolitical realpolitik. This perplex also determined during future crises of British power, in Iran and throughout the Middle East, that US interests would shift to new relationships, whenever having to decide, with indigenous peripheral actors rather than neo-imperialist European allies, precluding institutionalized, comprehensive Anglo-American partnership, which Britain had hoped would preserve and extend its role as a regional power.     

The Anglo-American “Special Relationship”: The Lazarus of International Relations

Scholars have variously queried the existence of the Anglo-American “special relationship,” consigned it to history as “special no more,” or demanded that Britain choose between its European and American relationships. These critiques have become increasingly prevalent since the Cold War. Yet the current British government, like many before it, continues to portray a choice between America and Europe as a “false choice,” and the “special relationship” has arguably deepened in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. This article contends that international diplomatic history can contribute much to understanding the “Lazarus-like” quality of the “special relationship.” Specifically it argues that a number of critical continuities in post-World War II British foreign policy survived the end of the Cold War and have since contributed heavily to the determination of the British foreign policymaking elite to maintain the “special relationship” at the same time that Britain pursues a leadership role within Europe.     

Why State Subsidies? Evidence from European Community Countries, 1981–1986

In this article I seek to explain why European Community members subsidized a substantial portion of their economies in the period 1981–1986. I test three competing explanations: socioeconomic, party control, and world markets. Parties have an impact on overall state subsidies and loans, but trade deficits are most influential in the disbursement of direct budget outlays and tax incentives. Unemployment has no effect on subsidies. The differential responsiveness to trade and parties is likely to frustrate efforts toward greater European integration.     

日本对华直接投资的新发展及其原因分析

新世纪初,特别是2003年以来,日本对华直接投资结束了停滞和下降的局面,进入了新的发展阶段。在日本对外直接投资连年衰退和中日关系恶化的情况下,日本对华直接投资之所以进入新的发展阶段,这乃是由中国经济开始新一轮高速增长、中国工业化进入以重化工业为主的新阶段等因素所决定的。这意味着中日关系出现的“政冷”只能在一定程度上影响“经热”,并不能从根本上改变“经热”的局面。     

When News Norms Collide,Follow the Lead: New Evidence for Press Independence

The literature on media independence shows that the public statements of government officials can simultaneously stimulate news coverage and regulate the discursive parameters of that coverage. This study investigates two sources of uncertainty in that literature which have limited the ability of researchers to draw firm conclusions about the nature of media independence: how critical the news actually is, and how journalists put the indexing norm into practice. I examine policy discourse appearing in evening news broadcasts during the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf crisis, and find that sources outside the institutions of American government produced far more discourse critical of American involvement in the Gulf crisis than was produced by the "official" debate among domestic political leaders. Moreover, changes in the amount of governmental criticism coming from official circles did not tend to produce parallel changes in the amount of critical news coverage. This suggests that criticism of government in evening news discourse was not triggered by or closely tied to patterns of gatekeeping among elected officials. Television news coverage did not merely toe the "line in the sand" drawn by the Bush administration. Instead, the evidence from this case suggests that journalists exercised considerable discretion in locating and airing oppositional voices.