Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people's perceptions of the candidates' issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model's ex ante forecasts, calculated three to two months prior to Election Day, were competitive with those from the best of eight established political economy models. Model accuracy substantially improved closer to Election Day. The Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. The model demonstrates that the direct influence of party identification on vote choice decreases over the course of the campaign, whereas issues gain importance. The model has decision-making implications in that it advises candidates to engage in agenda setting and to increase their perceived issue-handling and leadership competence.     

Structural Change in U.S. Presidents' Use of Force

Has there been a structural change in the way U.S. presidents use force abroad since the nineteenth century? In this article, I investigate historical changes in the use of force by U.S. presidents using Bayesian changepoint analysis. In doing so, I present an integrated Bayesian approach for analyzing changepoint problems in a Poisson regression model. To find the nature of the breaks, I estimate parameters of the Poisson regression changepoint model using Chib's (1998) hidden Markov model algorithm and Frühwirth‐Schnatter and Wagner's (2006) data augmentation method. Then, I utilize transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to detect the number of breaks. Analyzing yearly use of force data from 1890 to 1995, I find that, controlling for the effects of the Great Depression and the two world wars, the relationship between domestic conditions and the frequency of the use of force abroad fundamentally shifted in the 1940s.     

The Loss of Nature in Axel Honneth's Social Philosophy. Rereading Mead with Merleau-Ponty

Abstract

This paper analyses the model of interaction at the heart of Axel Honneth's social philosophy. It argues that inter action in his mature ethics of recognition has been reduced to intercourse between human persons and that the role of nature is now missing from it. The ethics of recognition takes into account neither the material dimensions of individual and social action, nor the normative meaning of non-human persons and natural environments. The loss of nature in the mature ethics of recognition is made visible through a comparison with Honneth's initial formulation of his project. As an anthropology of intersubjectivity combining the teaching of the German philosophical anthropologists and G.H. Mead, his first model sought to ground social theory in the natural preconditions of human action. The last part of the article argues that a return to Mead's theory of practical intersubjectivity informed by Merleau-Ponty's germane theory of intercorporeity provides essential conceptual tools to enable the integration of the natural and the material within the theory of recognition.     

The Legitimacy of U.S. Government Agency Power

A synthesis of the work of two political and legal scholars, John Rohr and Lon Fuller, properly balances constitutional and managerial values, supplementing other theories that offer useful but insufficient support for American government agency legitimacy. Agencies reflecting that balance would strengthen their legitimacy—a particularly valuable goal in an era of low confidence in American government. Rohr's focus on the constitutional oath of office and American regime values, and Fuller's insistence that law must serve human needs, leave a great deal indeterminate and discretionary but nevertheless set boundaries. Bureaucrats who risked or sacrificed their jobs to avoid transgressing those boundaries offer models of loyalty to the Rohr‐Fuller balance of values. The behavior of officials in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in thwarting measures that could have averted the financial crisis of 2007 offers a model of bureaucrats who violated those boundaries.     

Local governments' monopoly power and local tax reform: Theory and evidence from the U.K.

Public Choice - The paper briefly reviews recent research that adapts and extends the Tiebout model of residential choice, paying special attention to those studies which utilize Hirschman's...     

Turning on the Citizen: Modern Citizenship and its Cultural Hazards

How is the citizen 'turned on'? That is, how does one 'switch' from being a private person to being a citizen? This article investigates how several prominent models of politics and citizenship account for this switch. In particular, the role of (cultural) identity in performing the 'switch' is highlighted. In the 'standard' liberal model, the switch from private to public is considered an unproblematic 'mind switch'. In the communitarian model, on the contrary, it is considered impossible: the good citizen must be a good person. In the republican model, identity 'restrictions' can be overcome by actively participating in the context of a culture of democratic deliberation. In the liberal multicultural model, cultural identity counts explicitly, although as a handicap, to be overcome by the support of cultural rights. In the model of identity politics, finally, identity counts positively, as an asset. Although identity thus empowers 'switching', its 'transformative' dimension has unpredictable and often unsettling effects, due to unacknowledged elements in the demand for recognition of identity in politics. Throughout the article, the vicissitudes of 'switching' are illuminated by an analysis of the Clinton-Lewinsky case, showing how president Clinton's 'sexualized identity' affected his ability to switch from private to public affairs--for better or for worse.     

The stock market and U.S. presidential approval

Since the 1970s research has demonstrated a strong relationship between national economic performance and presidential approval. Traditionally, these popularity models rely on macroeconomic conditions; however, other economic performance measures may more fully capture the direction of the economy. One such measure, the stock market index, captures elements of national and household economic well-being. Therefore, market performance should impact presidential ratings. Our presidential approval model, based on quarterly data covering 1960–2011, demonstrates that approval is highly sensitive to the stock market's acceleration or deceleration, even with strong controls in the model for the other economic and political determinants of popularity. A rapid fall in the stock market index reduces president approval, while a sharp acceleration in the index growth boosts U.S. presidential approval.     

Legislative Television as an Institutional Entry Barrier: The Impact of C-SPAN2 on Turnover in the U.S. Senate, 1946–1998

The present study examines the impactof televised U.S. Senate sessions (byC-SPAN2) on turnover rates in the U.S.Senate over the period 1946–1998. Using atheoretical model wherein politicalservices are viewed as search/experiencegoods, it is argued that there are manyparliamentary procedures available to U.S.Senators (e.g., filibustering, SpecialOrder Speeches, etc.) that serve them aslow-cost forms of persuasive advertising. These outlets provide opportunities forpolitical ``grandstanding'' on popular issueswhich challengers would have to spend largesums of money to combat and/or replicate. In this way C-SPAN (potentially) servesincumbent Senators as an entry barrier.     

Exchange rate policy modeling and forecasting the exchange rate: Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar

The exchange rate is a very important key financial variable that affects decisions made by the foreign exchange investors, exporters, importers, bankers, businesses, financial institutions, policymakers, and tourists in the developed as well as the developing world. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the value of international investment portfolios, competitiveness of exports and imports, value of international reserves, currency value of debt payments, and the cost of tourists. Movements in exchange rates thus have very important implications for any country's economy's business cycle, trade, and capital flows and are therefore crucial for understanding financial developments and changes in economic policy. The study will be looking at the various aspects of country's economic policy with respect to the exchange rate and modeling and forecasting the exchange rate. The study will be analyzing India's exchange rate story and will be discussing the structure of the foreign exchange market in India in terms of participants, instruments, and trading platform as also a turnover in the Indian foreign exchange market and forward premia. The study will be attempting to develop a model for the rupee–dollar exchange rate taking into account variables from monetary and microstructure models as well as other variables including intervention by the central bank. The main focus will be on the exchange rate of the Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar, that is, the Re/$ rate. The data will be covering from January 1990 through April 2013. This study will be examining the forecasting performance of the monetary model and various extensions of it in the vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive framework.     

Optimal effort allocation by U.S. Senators: the role of constituency size

Legislators in a representative democracy are modeled as being able to allocate a fixed amount of effort between two objectives: national policymaking and local benefit-seeking. The model predicts that the effort allocated to local benefit-seeking should be a negative function of the population size of a legislator's constituency. We empirically test and confirm this prediction by examining the manner in which United States senators allocate their personal staff between home state and Washington D.C. offices.     

Reassessing the Role of Constituency in Congressional Voting

Poole and Rosenthal (1997) argue that mostcongressional voting can be understood in terms of alow-dimensional spatial model. This paper uses their model toassess the importance of the two mechanisms that couldcontribute to the vote-predicting power of constituencyvariables: (i) constituency variables may predict wherelegislators fall along one or two dimensions in thevote-predicting spatial model and (ii) constituency variablesmay account for errors in the spatial model's predictions. Thepaper compares different methods of using a basicset of constituency variables to generate out-of-sample predictionsfor representatives' votes. The analysis covers a large numberof recent House roll call votes, considering Democrats andRepublicans separately and using Poole and Rosenthal'sW-NOMINATE scores to measure legislators' locations invote-predicting space. The results show that the predictivepower of a basic set of constituency variables arisesprincipally from its ability to predict representatives'locations in Poole and Rosenthal's space, not from its abilityto explain errors in the predictions based on that space. Thisholds true to a remarkable extent, consistent with Poole andRosenthal's argument that the influence of constituentinterests occurs largely through logrolling mechanismsreflected in their spatial model.     

On expressive voting: Evidence from the 1988 U.S. presidential election

People turn out to cast their votes simply because they want to ``cheer'' or ``boo'' their favored or unfavored candidates. This expressive voting behavior is in marked contrast to the instrumental voting behavior, i.e., people vote because they perceive voting as a means of achieving a particular election outcome. In this paper we report an econometric study on voting behavior that uses data from the 1988 American National Election Study. The results reveal that the ``cheering'' and ``booing'' effects are statistically significant, and that they exert substantial influence on bothturnout and voter choice. We also obtain evidence against theproposition that people turn out to vote because they considerthemselves to be potentially decisive with regard to the electionoutcome.     

China's reform,internal trade and marketing

Abstract

This article analyses Macau's casinos as an example for accumulation by dispossession, in which they serve to transfer wealth from Mainland China to Macau and the casinos' foreign investors. They also represent a model for economic development and this model has migrated to Singapore, where it also operates as a form of accumulation by dispossession. By requiring citizens to pay an entrance fee, Singapore's casinos explicitly appropriate other people's money. The efficacy for the use of casinos as economic development is interrogated here because Macau's casino experience has emerged as a model for economic development in Asia beyond simply Singapore.     

Learning from Others: What South Korean Technology Policy Can Teach the U.S.

I have recently traveled to South Korea, where Seoul National University hosted the XXII World Congress of Philosophy, the first time the congress has been hosted in Asia. I was astonished by the pervasive use of many of the latest technological advancements. Among the most impressive changes were environmental. The methods employed in hotels and at the University for minimizing unnecessary consumption of electricity were exemplary. Given the great need America has now for developing its economy, and preferably in a way that does not easily lend itself to outsourcing, South Korea can serve as a model for change implemented through the development and manufacturing of advanced technological tools including high‐speed internet access, which will be the focus of the present paper. Some changes have begun already in some arenas of industry and responsiveness to environmental forces, such as in Toyota's decision to move from making SUV's in its new factory coming to Tupelo, Mississippi, to making only the Prius. But Americans have let the governmental incentives for a number of environmentally preferable products run out, and have not lead the way in the propagation of new renewable energy source technologies. Also, America's common approach to the propagation of technological and business development with the use of tax‐incentives is fundamentally different far less forceful than the South Korean approach I will discuss.     

On the measurement of social class and its role in shaping white vote choice in the 2016 U.S. presidential election

In this paper, I assess how social class influenced white vote choice in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. I use 2016 ANES data to create a measure of class that is based on an individual's income, education, occupation, and wealth. I then use a structural equation model to show that an individual's social class both directly and indirectly shaped vote choice. I demonstrate that low class standing was a significant predictor of support for Trump in the general election. I also show that social class exerted an indirect effect. Lower class standing is associated with higher levels of racial resentment and authoritarianism, which were in turn strong predictors vote choice. I conclude that social class was one of the primary determinants of white vote choice.     

A Critical Comment on Niskanen's Model

Niskanen's model has been largely criticized, but it still remains a standard explanation of bureaucracy's behaviour. In this paper we criticize the monopoly power that Niskanen assigns to the bureaucracy. A bilateral monopoly between bureaucrats and politicians might be a much more adequate framework for explaining the bureaucracy's behaviour than Niskanen's original formulation of a perfect discriminating bureaucracy. In a bilateral monopoly model, in no case the type of relationship which holds between the sponsor and the bureau leads to an oversupply of output. Should an excess output occur, it would be a consequence of the political decision-making mechanisms. This result stands in sharp contrast to the Niskanen's model, but, at the same time, it is coherent with the fact that, when the sponsor introduces control and monitoring mechanisms, the sponsor does not pretend to decrease the output but rather to supervise and to reduce the costs of producing the output.     

Testing a Predictive Model of Voter Behavior on the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

Utilizing a predictive model of voter behavior, this study identified the motivations behind a sample of voters who cast a ballot for George W. Bush and AI Gore in the 2000 presidential campaign. The motivations of the voters were differentiated on the basis of the “value” they sought in a president. In other words, just as companies in the “commercial marketplace” have to create value to attract customers, so does a candidate in the “political marketplace” who is seeking to carve out a niche for himself that separates him from his competition. Pairwise discriminant analysis is used to identify the motivations behind the choice behavior of voters at both the candidate and party level. The results reveal the complimentary roles that the political party and each candidate's campaign organization played in their respective marketing strategies.     

Budget-maximizing governmental agencies: An empirical test

Niskanen's theory of government budgeting, involving powerful agencies interested in maximizing their budgets through bargaining with a weak, poorly informed governmental ‘Sponsor’, has received wide recognition. This paper presents the first direct empirical tests of Niskanen's ideas. One implication of Niskanen's model of budgeting is that the demand for public services will appear to be elastic. Niskanen's model also implies restrictions on the elasticity of the derived demand for labor in the public sector. Neither set of predictions is supported by existing empirical research on government activity.     

Bribery and Public Debt Repudiation

In cases where policy makers accept ``bribes'' offered by organised lobbies or interestedparties, government decisions can be modelled as a first price menu auction. In this paper we adaptthis structure to model debt repudiation. We considera one-period model in which two generations, parents and children, are present, and debt titles are unevenlydistributed among parents. The government can repaythe debt by a combination of taxes on the children'sincome and on the outstanding debt. We excludeintergenerational conflicts, assuming that the parents'and children's objective is to maximise the utility ofthe family. In this perspective, families make offersthat relate monetary contributions to the taxstructures chosen by the government. On the hypothesisthat all interests are represented, we obtain theresult that the government is indifferent to the taxstructure.