Direct foreign investment and the Yellow Sea Rim

The article investigates the possibility and problems of direct foreign investment (DFI) in the Yellow Sea Rim. After reviewing the global trends in DFI and major policy issues, the article discusses the perspectives of DFI in the region. It examines the markets for the products made by foreign subsidiaries and joint ventures as well as relocation of industries from South Korea and Japan. By reviewing Japanese experience in operating joint ventures and subsidiaries in China, the article discusses difficulty in managing subsidiaries in the centrally planned economy. A probable consequence of increased DFI will be an expansion of emigration of Chinese citizens to Korea and Japan.     

Rapid economic development in Singapore and the future of the PAP

The economic development of Singapore has been such that it is frequently cited as a model for capitalist development. One of the most striking features of the Singapore development process has been its distributional consequences. Rapid economic growth has produced remarkably equitable outcomes and the average Singaporean has had little cause for complaint — or at least until recently. This article examines the latest trends with respect to inequality in Singapore, and attempts some assessment of the policy responses and the potential for social instability.     

The future Germany and the future of NATO

The events of 1989 have raised questions about NATO's future and purpose. Two different views are held by Germany and the USA. The Germans seek the political and economic unification of the EC, the construction of a European pillar within a demilitarised NATO, and a pan‐European collective security system. In contrast, the Americans seek to preserve NATO as a military alliance responsible for western European security under American leadership and to equip NATO with competences extending beyond the NA TO area. Whilst insisting on greater western European burden sharing and security coordination, the Americans see the roles of the CSCE and the WEU as complementary to NATO's.     

The future of the international nonproliferation regime

The nuclear nonproliferation regime should be strengthened in order to meet the needs of an unstable international security environment, says Hiroyoshi Kurihara, Senior Executive Director of the Nuclear Material Control Center in Tokyo. He proposes that Japan can contribute more actively to strengthening nonproliferation efforts by considering the establishment of a regional confidence building mechanism to monitor peaceful nuclear activities in the Northeast Asian region. The establishment of such a mechanism is vital, he says, if the nations of the region are to develop confidence in each other such that war, and particularly nuclear war, between them will become impossible.     

The future of the Japan‐US alliance

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in light of emerging multilateral security dialogues, there are those on both sides of the Pacific beginning to question the raison d'être of the US‐Japan alliance. Is this alliance still viable? What kind of bilateral alliance would be most desirable in the future? Can it interact effectively with a multilateral security framework? Patrick M. Cronin, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., asks these and other questions. In answering them, he maintains that the US‐Japan security alliance is the indispensable foundation for security in the Asia‐Pacific region.     

The United Nations and the future peace

The end of the Cold War promised a great improvement in the UN's effectiveness as a framework for international peace and security. Yet, it soon became evident that the UN was having great difficulty in coming to grips with countless new conflicts. Several practical measures are suggested for making the UN a more credible and relevant instrument/or a more peaceful and less destructive post‐Cold War world     

The future impact of energy problems in China

Hisahiro Kanayama graduated from the University of Tokyo with a B.A. in Economics in 1981, then joined the Nippon Steel Corporation. Several years later, he took a two‐year sabbatical to obtain his MBA from the University of Washington in Seattle. Upon returning to Japan, he became a manager at the Plate Sales Division of the Tokyo Head Office. Seconded to IIPS as a senior research fellow in July of 1992, his work is focused on Japanese policy in Asia and he has published several policy papers including “Economic Zones in China” (104J) and “The Marketization of China and Japan's Response” (115E).     

The 1990 National Affairs Conference and the future of democracy in Taiwan

Abstract

In the last four decades Taiwan has made startling economic progress under the authoritarian rule of the Nationalist government, increasing its per capita Gross Domestic Product from about U.S. $50 in 1945 to about $8,000 in 1991. Politically, however, Taiwan has moved with great caution, reluctance, and conservativeness, maintaining martial law and ruthless militarist control until 1987. There was little real democratization although in those long years dissidents such as the tangwai (“outside the party” that is, outside the Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang [KMT]) opposition fought valiantly, suffered enormously, and achieved some breakthroughs and softening of the Nationalist authoritarian rule.     

The future of urban water services in Latin America

In recent decades, problems with the provision of drinking water and sanitation services around the world have increasingly been addressed by attempts at privatisation, recasting clean water as an essentially economic, rather than public, good. This approach gained particular acceptance in Latin America, but with limited success. In order to address the full range of social, economic and environmental values necessary to sustain water resources over time, public and governmental involvement in establishing integrated water management, pursuing ‘soft path’ approaches, assuring stakeholder input and setting policy will be essential to the process.     

简析尼克松的南海政策——以西沙海战为例

尼克松政府时期,美国在南海问题上实行中立政策.在西沙海战前后,南海相关国家对南沙群岛非常关注,而美国坚持中立立场,绝不卷入其中.美国不予南越军事援助,对于中国出兵西沙也不予任何谴责,更不将西沙群岛、南沙群岛列入美国对其盟友的防卫范围.因此,尼克松所实行的实际上是有利于中国的中立政策.     

The Al Saud family and the future of Saudi Arabia

Summary

We have started by asking the question: why are there international income inequalities? We have ascribed them to differences in applied productive knowledge. This raised the question: why can productive knowledge be communicated and diffused within an advanced nation, but not between nations or within underdeveloped nations? What are the obstacles to the international diffusion of benefits ?

We have found these in two areas: obstacles to communication and absence of suitable technologies. The obstacles to communication can again be divided into those due to costs of transfer and those due to intentional restrictions or the exercise of monopoly power. But even perfect communication would not meet the need for quite different technologies from those developed in high‐income countries.

Measures that reduce the Communications Gap might make the Suitability Gap wider and vice versa, but a set of integrated actions attacking both gaps has a chance of success. Technical knowledge cannot be marketed like other products or factors because it possesses peculiar features: (i) indivisibility, (ii) inappropriability, (iii) embodiment in other factors, (iv) uncertainty and (v) impossibility to know its full value until bought. Policies for closing the two gaps are interdependent, so that the pursuit of any one in isolation might make matters worse. What is needed is a set of integrated actions, attacking both the Communications Gap and the Suitability Gap. Transfer must be supplemented by indigenous capability; adaptation by invention and innovation.     

The present state and future prospects of the German Volksparteien

Party performance in the 1994 ‘super'‐election year led many observers to conclude that the major parties had managed to stabilise their position. However, subsequent Land elections show a continuing downward trend in their support, evident since the 1980s, and party membership is also falling. None the less, the major parties will retain their predominance at the parliamentary level in government. In consequence there is a widening gap between their control of the party state and the basis for their legitimation in society. This development may be intensified in view of the economic and social problems faced by the Federal Republic.     

南海争端中的美国因素及其影响

在美国重返东南亚的大背景下,南海争端呈现出复杂化的趋势。本文概述了南海争端现状和各方对相关国际法律的不同解读,分析探讨了美国关注南海争端的原因、美国的立场政策、以及美国因素对南海争端当事国的影响。通过剖析美国因素,本文认为,美国对南海问题当事国相关政策或行动的支持倾向,客观上已使得南海问题的多边化、国际化态势逐渐转为现实,美国因素对中国试图解决南海争端的努力形成一定的挑战。     

The rise of china and the future of east asian integration

China is rising as the fastest growing largest economy and thereby leading a market-driven economic integration in East Asia. At the same time, nationalism is also rising and constraining East Asian countries from forming a state-driven regional community. This paper examines the political economy of interdependence and nationalism that is taking place in East Asia. Simply put, its central theme is that the degree of interdependence, especially between China and other countries, is deepening, and as a result, is pulling East Asia toward regional integration, but due to the rising tide of nationalism, it is far short of forming an actual community. In order to build a community, therefore, such economic trend must be propelled by political leadership and will. In elaborating on this thesis, the paper analyzes the trade and production networks centered on China, the efforts to promote regional integration in ASEAN?+?3, the nationalist rivalry between Japan and China in negotiating FTAs, and the difficulties in achieving Sino–Japanese reconciliation. Finally, the paper proposes a Northeast Asian Forum among Japan, South Korea and China while the US remains as a stabilizing force in East Asia.