Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need

Although municipal jails consume a significant amount of resources and the number of inmates housed in such facilities exploded in the 1990s, the literature on forecasting jail populations is sparse. Jail administrators have available discussions on jail crowding and its causes, but do not have ready access to applications of forecasting techniques or practical demonstrations of a jail inmate population forecast. This article argues that the underlying reason for this deficiency is the inherent unpredictability of local long-term correctional population levels. The driving forces behind correctional bed need render local jail population forecasts empirically valid only for a brief time frame. These inherent difficulties include the volatile nature of jail populations and their greater sensitivity when compared with prison populations to local conditions; the gap between the data needed for local correctional population forecasting and what is realistically available to forecasters; the lack of reliable lead variables for long-term local correctional population forecasts; the clash of the mathematics of forecasting and the substantive issues involved in the interpretation of forecast models; and the significant political and policy impacts of forecasts on local criminal justice systems and subsequent correctional population trends.The differences between the accuracy of short-term versus long-term jail bed need forecasts means that forecasting local correctional bed need is empirically valid for, at best, one to two years. As the temporal cast is extended, longer-term forecasts quickly become error prone. Except for unique situations where jails exist in highly stable local political, social, and criminal justice environments, long-term forecasts of two years or greater are fatally flawed and have little empirical accuracy. Long-term forecasts of local jail bed needs are useful, though, as policy catalysts to encourage policymakers to consider possible long-term impacts of current decisions, but forecasts should be thought of and presented as one possible future scenario rather than a likely reality. Utilizing a demonstration of a local jail forecast based upon two common empirical forecasting approaches, ARIMA and autoregression, this article presents a case study of the inherent difficulties in the long-term forecasting of local jail bed need.     

INTERORGANIZATIONAL UTILITY OF WELFARE STIGMA IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM*

The appropriation of “welfare stigma” or stereotypes about poor people's overreliance and abuse of public aid in two core criminal justice functions is examined: felony adjudication in a court system and space allocation in a jail. Through a comparative ethnographic study in which an abductive analysis of data (20 months of fieldwork) was used, we show that criminal justice gatekeepers utilize welfare stigma to create stricter eligibility criteria for due process in criminal courts and occupancy in jails. Specifically, the number of court appearances, motions, trials, jail beds, food, showers, and medical services is considered by professionals to be the benefits that individuals seek to access and abuse. Professionals view their role as preventing (rather than granting) access to these resources. The comparative nature of our data reveals that welfare stigma has interorganizational utility by serving two different organizational goals: It streamlines convictions in courts, which pulls defendants through adjudication, and conversely, it expands early release from jails, which pulls inmates out of the custody population. In the context of diminishing social safety nets, our findings have implications for understanding how discretion is exercised in an American criminal justice system increasingly tasked with the distribution of social services to the urban poor.     

The Issue of Control in Jail: The Effects of Professionalism,Detainee Control,and Administrative Support on Job Stress,Job Satisfaction,and Organizational Commitment among Jail Staff

Jails are important, yet understudied, components of the American criminal justice system. While most research on correctional personnel has focused on prisons, a growing body of work is beginning to emerge on jails. This is encouraging given the unique circumstances that occur within jail environments (e.g., diversity and mobility of offenders, health issues among detainees, overcrowding, lack of training among staff, etc.). Given these conditions, the staff members who run jails become the glue that holds them together. The following study contributes to this burgeoning area of empirical inquiry by examining a variety of antecedents of job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment among jail personnel. Using survey data collected from a large county correctional system in Orlando, Florida, the findings indicate that staff perceptions of professionalism, detainee control, and administrative support all significantly impact degrees of job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment.     

Screening of Women in Jail for Health Risks and Needs

Abstract

In order to address the relative lack of services for women who come into contact with the criminal justice system, there is a need to develop quick and easily administered screening tools. This pilot study was conducted with 110 women in two urban county jails in Ohio. The purpose of the project was to develop and pilot a quick multidimensional screening instrument for women in jail to identify risk and rehabilitative needs. The project resulted in a 15-item screening tool which can be used in urban crowded jail settings to identify women at risk for health, substance abuse, mental health, family, employment or housing risks.     

Correctional destabilization and jail violence: The consequences of prison depopulation legislation

Purpose

This study explored the effects of prison depopulation on local jail violence through a general systems perspective – where an abrupt shift in the processing of offenders had the potential to create ripple effects through other organizations – of the criminal justice system.

Methods

In 2011, California passed the Criminal Justice Realignment legislation aimed to reduce prison population by making low-level felony offenders ineligible for state incarceration and diverting those already in state prison for the included offenses from state to county-level community supervision once paroled. This study incorporated bivariate and negative binomial regression analyses to model officially-recorded county jail panel data to estimate the effects of state prison depopulation on California county jails.

Results

Findings demonstrated support for the general systems framework as there was a significant decrease in jail utility in the bivariate analysis and a significant increase in jail violence in the multivariate analysis associated with passage of California’s prison depopulation legislation.

Conclusions

The results supported the notion of an interconnected criminal justice system. Policy implications include the consequences of increased violence on jail operations, the potential for a cadre of habitual offenders, and generalizing these findings to the community.     

From Bail to Jail: The Effect of Jail Capacity on Bail Decisions

One of the more important decisions made by judges in the criminal justice system is the bail decision. Factors that judges take into consideration when making a bail decision, such as seriousness of the offense, flight risk, and public safety, are typically seen by researchers as the primary determinants of such a decision. However, one aspect that researchers have not studied extensively—rated jail capacity – could play an important role in a judge’s decision. Overcrowding in jails leads to numerous problems, both for the offender and the system itself, so judges may be more willing to release offenders into the community during the pretrial period if the local jails are overcrowded. The current study examines the effect of rated jail capacity on decisions regarding bail amounts, release on recognizance (ROR), financial release, and conditional release in eight Florida counties. Results indicate that rated jail capacity plays a role in judges’ bail decisions, suggesting that judges are concerned about housing more pretrial offenders in crowded jails.     

Going to Jail Sucks (And It Really Doesn’t Matter Who You Ask)

A growing body of research suggests that, according to both offenders and criminal justice practitioners, jails and correctional boot camps are viewed and experienced as significantly more punitive than prison. Nevertheless, limited research exists examining the perceptions of the public regarding jail conditions and operations. Using responses from 1,183 Kentucky adults, we examine public opinion regarding the punitiveness of jail when compared to prison. We determine that, with the exception of boot camp, respondents feel that jail is the most punitive noncapital sanction. Additionally, respondents who had been convicted of a felony at some point in their lives and respondents with lower household income indicated that they would serve significantly less time in jail to avoid prison than their counterparts if given the option. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

Jails in the United States: the phenomenon of mental illness in local correctional facilities

During the last decade, the number of mentally ill inmates in local jails has increased while courts have imposed standards of inmate care upon jail administrators which require appropriate treatment of that inmate group. While jail administrators are seeking assistance from mental health agencies as well as additional resources to deal with these problems, little specific information is presently available about the numbers and correlates of jail inmates nationally that are mentally ill; their prior contacts with mental health agencies, criminal histories, employment backgrounds, etc; and the services jails presently offer to that population. In addition, little is known by geographic region or by jail capacity. Such information is essential in developing future strategies to manage that population. This paper is a preliminary contribution to the development of that information. In addition, the data analysis can serve as a base line against which to evaluate in the structure of the mentally ill jail inmate population as well as changes in services provided by jails by comparing this analysis to future jail surveys conducted by the Bureau of Jail Statistics (BJS) or the National Institute of Justice. The research will be a secondary analysis of the Survey of Inmates of Local Jails, 1983, conducted by BJS, (made available through the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: University of Michigan, First Edition, Fall, 1985, #8274). In general an exploratory approach was used; however, a loglinear model has been asked to further refine and explore the phenomena of the mentally ill in jails.     

Staying Out: Reentry Protective Factors Among Rural Women Offenders

The current study examines protective factors for women who transition from county jails to rural Appalachian communities, areas with limited health and behavioral health services. The study included drug-using women recruited from three jails in rural Appalachia and followed-up at 12-months post-release. Analyses focused on differences between women who remained in the community and those who returned to custody, as well as a multivariate model to determine protective factors for reentry success. At the bivariate level, staying out of jail was associated with being older, having a job, not using drugs, stable housing, receiving health treatment, and having prosocial peers. In the multivariate model, the most robust predictors of staying out of jail were drug use abstinence, health care utilization, and prosocial peers. Most research on criminogenic needs associated with reentry success have focused on men, and most focused on reentry to urban communities where services and resources are more accessible. These findings have important implications for criminal justice systems to implement reentry programs for women offenders during the transition to the community.     

Why a jail or prison sentence is increasingly like a death sentence

Because of current conditions inside American jails and prisons, a sentence to a correctional facility routinely compromises the health, safety, and life of inmates. Four environmental factors can make a jail and prison sentence appear like a death sentence: poor health care, unsanitary living conditions, high levels of violence, and an increased number of people with chronic diseases living in close proximity. Thus, a de facto death penalty, the most controversial sanction of the criminal justice system, is the result for some inmates, and a misapplication of the criminal law is thus achieved. In order to present this argument, the author reviews research which increases the likelihood that a person will die behind bars.     

Representing Theory and Theorising in Criminal Justice Studies: Practising Theory Considered

The author considers the role and place of theory in criminal justice studies. The argument is that the operation and interrogation of fundamental categories is integral to social scientific enquiry and if criminal justice studies is to resist a technocratic “protective service” orientation it must promote theorising and thinking conceptually via the texts which represent the discipline to undergraduates. Although theory is situated at the core of social science curricula, there is little or no agreement on its role or place in research and pedagogy. The dominant understanding of theory within criminal justice studies (including its sociological and criminological incarnation) is that it is something to be referred to. What is seldom emphasised in theory or methods texts is the practice of theorising. Texts that are designed to be the student’s first contact with the field of criminal justice studies, and which reflect broader attitudes toward social enquiry, seldom consider the methodological and pedagogical issues related to the production and role of analytic concepts and do not present social science as an imaginative or reflexive practice. Drawing on critical realist metatheory, this paper advances a distinction between social and sociological problems and social science and protective service toward illustrating that a social science approach to the study of criminal justice demands the operation and interrogation of analytic categories and explicit consideration of issues of epistemology and ontology. Works which seek to avoid this serve only to foster a passive rather than active engagement with their subject matter.     

The American jail: Problems,politics, prospects

Discussions of America’s local jails inevitably center around their plethora of problems. Not only are these problems pervasive, but they are also enduring. Numerous proposals have been advanced to improve jail conditions and operations. Most have failed to such an extent that some scholars have speculated that jails are simply immune to reform. It is the contention of this article that most of the problems facing contemporary jails are rooted in the uniquepolitical nature of the jail as an organization. Consequently, serious efforts to affect change in jail conditions must recognize the limited options placed upon jail reforms by the political environment, or they must originate from outside the local political setting.     

Defending and managing the pipeline: lessons for running a randomized experiment in a correctional institution

Objectives

To discuss the challenges faced in an experimental prisoner reentry evaluation with regard to managing the pipeline of eligible cases.

Methods

This paper uses a case study approach, coupled with a review of the relevant literature on issues of case flow in experimental studies in criminal justice settings. Included are recommendations for researchers on the management of case flow, reflections on the major research design issues encountered, and a listing of dilemmas that are likely to plague experimental evaluations of prisoner reentry programs.

Results

Particularly in a jail setting, anticipating the timing of release of a prisoner to the community is probably impossible given the large number of issues that impact release, many of which will be unanticipated. A detailed pipeline study is critical to the success of an experimental study targeting returning prisoners. Pipeline studies should be conducted under what will be the true conditions and context for enrollment, given all eligibility criteria.

Conclusions

With continued and systematic documentation of enrollment challenges in future experimental evaluations of reentry programs, as well as other experimental evaluations that involve individuals, academics can build a deep literature that would help facilitate future successful randomized experiments in the criminal justice field.     

Mayberry revisited: The characteristics and operations of America's small jails

Much attention has been focused on the problems of America's prisons and jails. Jail research and often jail litigation have centered on large county or municipal jails; often these resemble correctional systems and are so called. Yet many of the nation's 3041 counties are small, rural, and sparsely populated. In a 1982 survey conducted by the National Sheriffs' Association, 640 jails had bed space for 16 or fewer inmates. Many of these jails suffer from the same kinds of deficiencies as large jails, although these problems are not exacerbated by size. Most jails suffer from lack of adequate funding, but for small jails this is a particularly acute problem which affects all facets of operations.

Data from the 1983 National Jail Census and the 1982 National Sheriffs' Association survey are used to develop a profile of the overlooked but important small jail, defined for our purposes as a facility capable of housing ten or fewer inmates. This profile indicates that small jails are older, have less cell capacity, and provide fewer health and rehabilitation services than their larger counterparts. The national prevalence of small jails and some of their notable deficiencies suggest that alternatives to these facilities be considered.     

White-collar offenders and the jail experience: a comparative analysis

The incarceration experiences of white-collar offenders have received relatively little attention among criminological researchers, and the research that has been conducted has focused on offenders’ experiences in prisons rather than jails. The purpose of this study was to fill this gap by examining approximately 6500 inmates incarcerated in local jails, comparing those classified as white-collar offenders to violent and other non-violent offenders. The differences between offender types based on demographics, psychological adjustment (i.e., mental health issues since arrival to jail), and behavioral adjustment (i.e., institutional misconduct) are examined to see whether white-collar inmates have more difficulty than others adjusting to the jail environment (consistent with the special sensitivity hypothesis). Findings suggest that white-collar jail inmates do not appear to experience symptoms indicative of poor psychological or behavioral adjustment to the jail environment. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

Rural jails: Problematic inmates, overcrowded cells, and cash-strapped counties

In the United States there were some 1,775 jails with one hundred beds or less, but there had been little empirical examination of these facilities, or the challenges that they confront. This survey of 213 jail administrators from these small facilities found that under-funding, overcrowding, and retention and recruitment of officers were the most significant challenges. By contrast, suicide and violence were perceived to be less serious problems. The small jails sampled also held relatively high percentages of special needs inmates, and this places further demands on these agencies. These challenges are very similar to problems identified several decades ago, suggesting that few structural or operational changes had been made in rural justice systems. In many places, rural jails acted as a default mechanism for failures in other social, health, or community systems and they become the place that “just can't say no.”     

The validity of criminal justice contacts reported by inmates: A comparison of self-reported data with official prison records

Purpose

Existing research on criminal justice contact data has not adequately examined the quality of self-reported timing data, has produced discrepant findings on validity as it relates to demographics, and is limited in its assessment of data quality using a life event calendar method. The study described in this article assessed the validity of self-reported contacts with the criminal justice system gathered using a life event calendar with a sample of incarcerated men.

Methods

Self-reports of criminal justice contacts (i.e., arrests, jail terms, prison terms) were obtained from over 700 incarcerated men using a structured life-event calendar method. Similarly, data were collected from the inmate's official records for the same events. These reports served as an external criterion for the self-reports.

Results

Results indicated a significant degree of reporting errors for arrests using the life event calendar approach with better reporting for jail and prison terms. Additionally, individuals with the highest number of previous arrests had the greatest recall difficulties.

Conclusions

Recall of arrest presents a difficult recall task. The life event calendar method should either be modified to improve recall of specific events for criminological samples or used instead to capture information on more general and extended events.     

Exploring the consequences of prolonged pretrial incarceration: evidence from a local jurisdiction in the Philippines

Prolonged pretrial incarceration is a key issue facing the criminal justice systems of many developing countries. Detainees stay in jail for years while undergoing trial but are still unconvicted. However, little is known about the consequences of this troubling phenomenon. Informed by relevant prison and criminological theories, this paper analyses jail official data and qualitative interviews from detainees in a local jurisdiction in the Philippines to understand the magnitude and consequences of prolonged pretrial incarceration. Results suggest the emergence of a legally cynical view of the criminal justice system shared by the detainees. These sentiments likely serve as bases for popular opinions that justify use of violence and vigilante justice on offender populations. Implications on judicial and penal reforms in the Philippines are discussed.     

Crimmigration at the Local Level: Criminal Justice Processes in the Shadow of Deportation

In recent decades, authorities have adopted a number of programs that tether the criminal and immigration enforcement apparatuses in novel ways. This mixed methods case study assesses the impact of such programs on local criminal justice processes and outcomes in King County, Washington. Although the empirical research on the effects of such programs is scant, the emerging literature on legal hybridity suggests that the enmeshment of the criminal and immigration systems is likely to enhance the state's power to detain and punish. The quantitative results support this hypothesis: non‐citizens flagged by immigration authorities stay in jail significantly longer than their similarly situated counterparts. Qualitative focus group interviews with prosecuting and defense attorneys identify four key mechanisms by which Immigration Customs and Enforcement detainers alter the incentive structure, impact decisionmaking, and extend jail stays for non‐citizens. Together, these findings suggest that immigration law and the threat of deportation now cast a long shadow over local as well as federal criminal proceedings, and enhance penal pain for non‐citizens. Implications of these findings for the “crimmigration” literature and research on the effect of citizenship status on criminal justice outcomes are discussed.