Crisis Management in Hindsight: Cognition, Communication, Coordination, and Control

This article argues that cognition is central to performance in emergency management. Cognition is defined as the capacity to recognize the degree of emerging risk to which a community is exposed and to act on that information. Using the case of Hurricane Katrina to illustrate the collapse of the standard model of emergency management without a clear focus on the role of cognition, the author reframes the concept of intergovernmental crisis management as a complex, adaptive system. That is, the system needs to adjust and adapt its performance to fit the demands of an ever-changing physical, engineered, and social environment. The terms of cognition, communication, coordination, and control are redefined in ways that fit the reality of practice in extreme events. A reframed intergovernmental crisis management system may be conceived as a dynamic interorganizational system that is characterized by four primary decision points: (1) detection of risk, (2) recognition and interpretation of risk for the immediate context, (3) communication of risk to multiple organizations in a wider region, and (4) self-organization and mobilization of a collective, community response system to reduce risk and respond to danger.     

基于危机管理模式的政府应急管理体制研究

以2003年SARS危机事件应对为契机,我国已逐步建成了综合性的政府应急管理体制。但现有体制在实际运行中还存在职责不明确,具体应急管理工作难以落实等问题,应急管理工作成效因而受到很大影响。本文从危机管理模式的视角出发,对建立全灾害和全过程管理模式的政府危机管理体制进行了深入探讨,提出了以政府应急管理职能为导向,建立政府危机管理体系和运行机制模式的新思路,为建立健全我国各级政府应急管理体制提供借鉴。     

Between Franks and Butler: British Intelligence Lessons from the Gulf War

Lessons for the intelligence community were publicly identified in a 1983 report by Lord Franks and a 2004 report by Lord Butler. However, little is known of the lessons learned during the 20 years between the two. This article draws upon two newly released, previously classified, documents which examine British intelligence lessons from the 1990–91 Gulf War. It provides a previously untold account of the crisis, exclusively from a British intelligence perspective, and presents new evidence that intersects across many intelligence debates. This article also challenges whether identified lessons remained learned and begins to question the wider learning process within the intelligence community.     

Accountability in Governance Networks: An Assessment of Public,Private, and Nonprofit Emergency Management Practices Following Hurricane Katrina

What is the most effective framework for analyzing complex accountability challenges within governing networks? Recognizing the multiscale and intersector (public, private, and nonprofit) characteristics of these networks, an accountability model is advanced organized around democratic (elected representatives, citizens, and the legal system), market (owners and consumers), as well as administrative (bureaucratic, professional and collaborative) relationships. This concept draws from 2005 events following Hurricane Katrina. Multiple failures of governing networks to plan for and respond to Katrina include a breakdown in democratic, market, and administrative accountability as well as a pervasive confusion over trade‐offs between accountability types emerging from crises. This essay offers several useful recommendations for emergency management planners as well as for those who teach and research.     

Lessons from the malfunctioning of the Eurozone's financial system

The persisting Eurozone's crisis is a combination of a sovereign debt crisis and a banking crisis that have been triggered by the Global Financial Crisis. The sovereign debt crisis is the consequence of a policy laxity for applying the principles and fiscal rules of the monetary union, which led to macroeconomic imbalances and enforced the mispricing of risks by the markets that in turn contributed to escalate the banking crisis. To address the consequences of the Eurozone's crisis, the European Union has implemented a new crisis management framework, which, however, is not immune to trials. The present paper follows a tripartite structure and begins by examining the causes of the Eurozone's crisis and draws its lessons. Second, it examines the reforms of the new crisis management framework and highlights their key challenges. Third, in light of these lessons and challenges, a return to three ‘fundamentals’ is advocated and the case of enhancing the position of the European Union within the area of international financial regulation is built to highlight how this is an optimal policy area for addressing the endemic weaknesses of the Eurozone and how this can contribute to securing a sustainable growth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crisis management and the diversity of capitalism: fiscal stimulus packages and the East Asian (neo-)developmental state

Abstract

This paper contributes to the understanding of East Asian capitalism by investigating the political economy of crisis management in Japan, Korea and China during the global economic crisis. Reacting to the global shock of the economic crisis that began in 2008, East Asian capitalism has remained a distinct state-led model that differs substantially from the liberal, neo-corporatist or welfare state varieties of capitalism in the West. More specifically, this paper studies the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by East Asian countries to address the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2010. We find that East Asian fiscal stimulus packages were comparatively large and supply-side-oriented. Unlike in the West, where a (short-lived) revival of demand-side-oriented Keynesian strategies stimulating consumption could be observed, East Asian countries reinforced industrial policies and supported investment and international competitiveness. We argue that the East Asian variety of crisis management can largely be explained by a path-dependent transformation of the East Asian developmental state into a neo-developmental competition state.     

The "Big Questions" of Katrina and the 2005 Great Flood of New Orleans

The "big questions" associated with Hurricane Katrina and the great flood of New Orleans lie at the intersection of the natural and human-shaped environments. The interactions dominating the intersection of the two environments are found in the social-political-economic system, culture and history, intergovernmental relations, and law. The big questions are not whether specific individuals were to blame for the destruction of lives and property, and they do not begin with the slow and inadequate intergovernmental response to the disaster. Instead, the big questions involve the roles of individuals, governments, and private markets in creating so-called natural disasters; whether government, through its lead role in the emergency management system, is incompetent, or whether capability and performance in protecting life and property have been eroded through a long-term "hollowing out" process; and whether Katrina's lessons will be learned or merely noted.     

Shifting Boundaries between the Public and Private Sectors: Implications from the Economic Crisis

What are the differences between the public and private sectors as well as their interrelationships in light of the recent financial crisis? Has the global economic crisis fundamentally shifted the boundaries between the two sectors? This essay examines the nature and extent of the shift. The authors present an analysis of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to highlight the massive transformations that are taking place and to introduce lessons for future policy initiatives. Between financial rescue missions and the economic stimulus program, government spending accounts for a bigger share of the nation’s economy—26 percent—than at any time since World War II. The government is financing 9 out of 10 new mortgages in the United States. If you buy a car from General Motors, you are buying from a company that is 60 percent owned by the government. If you take out a car loan or run up your credit card, the chances are good that the government is financing both your debt and that of your bank. —Edmund Andrews and David Sanger, New York Times, 2009     

基于网络媒介的突发性公共危机信息传播仿真和管理对策研究

危机信息的健康传播在突发性公共危机管理中至关重要。为了研究突发性公共危机信息在网络环境中传播的特征,本文以复杂适应系统理论为指导,利用多主体建模方法,基于Repast平台模拟突发性公共危机信息在网络媒介中的传播过程。通过模型仿真我们发现突发性公共危机在网络环境中传播的生命周期现象和群极化现象;并且分析比较了各主体属性在不同参数值下的演化结果,探寻危机信息传播的有效方法,为政府如何应对危机管理提供决策支持,以期有效控制突发性公共危机信息在网络环境的恶性传播。     

Organization and Reporting of Public Financial Accounts: Insights and Policy Implications from the Singapore Budget

This paper analyses the Singapore government budget's organization and reporting structure, and draws lessons and policy implications for improving public financial management practices. The paper finds that Singapore's fiscal marksmanship record has been poor with consistent underestimates of revenue and overestimates of expenditure. Second, subtle divergences from international reporting standards limit the information available and constrain the budget's analytical usefulness in international comparisons. Third, current reporting conventions of the budget fail to provide an adequate representation of the government's fiscal position. Fourth, revised estimates of budgetary balances in line with international reporting standards show a considerable increase in the fiscal space available. The policy implications of these findings are discussed, as well as some reporting changes which can help improve the fiscal marksmanship record, increase public sector transparency and accountability, and facilitate better quality discourse among all stakeholders on public financial management.     

Crisis Navigation: Lessons from History for the Crisis Manager in Chief

As fundamental tests of presidential leadership and organizational capacity, crises can make or break an administration. This article presents a conceptual analysis of what makes any crisis situation challenging to deal with, and it develops a set of analytical steps that can help crisis managers diagnose particular crisis situations they might face. The proposed crisis navigation framework brings together case research studies and theories of organizational processes, so that those assuming responsibility for steering the government and society through crises—including the Obama administration—have a useful point of entry into the growing crisis management literature.     

Governing Under Pressure: German Policy Making During the Coronavirus Crisis

The global threat of the coronavirus pandemic has forced policy makers to react quickly with totally new policy-making approaches under conditions of uncertainty. This article focuses on such crisis-driven policy learning, examining how the experiences of China and South Korea as early responder states influenced the subsequent coronavirus crisis management in Germany. The first reaction of the German core executive was the quick concentration of decision-making power at the top of the political hierarchy. Asserting the prerogatives of the executive included the radical simplification of the relationship between politics, law and science. State actors took emergency measures by recourse to a single piece of legislation—the ‘infection protection law’ (Infektionsschutzgesetz)—overriding other elements of the legal order. They also limited the government’s use of scientific expertise to a small number of advisors, thereby cutting short debates about the appropriateness or otherwise of the government’s crisis measures. Finally, German actors failed to understand that some of the earlier Chinese and Korean responses required a precondition—namely public willingness to sacrifice privacy for public health—that is absent in the German case.     

Crisis in Kosovo: A Just Use of Force?

This article looks at NATO's armed intervention in Serbia from the perspective of international law, and especially just war theory. After explaining the principles by which just war theory permits armed intervention, the crisis in Kosovo is used as a fascinating and relevant case study.     

Crisis Management in the Catholic Church: Lessons for Public Administrators

The Catholic Church offers a timely, significant case study of institutional failure. Looking at an in‐depth examination of the sex abuse scandal conducted by the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, the author discusses how the church crisis relates to classic public administration and crisis management theory. Given the similarities between the church and the government as public bureaucratic institutions, public administrations have much to learn from the case. Lessons include immediately sharing harsh truths with the public, accepting the stark realities of higher “public” expectations, establishing appropriate accountability systems, and fostering trust by building close community relationships. It is equally important to consider that church leaders neither fully considered nor absorbed key lessons from existing administrative theory. Concepts such as inappropriate organizational culture, bureaucracy, technicism, and goal displacement often blind leaders to adopting best practices based on well‐established theory.     

突发公共卫生事件应急反应基础建设及其应急管理

我国正进入公共卫生危机高发期,加强公共卫生应急管理研究是当务之急。介绍了突发公共卫生事件应急反应系统建设研究中初步结果,包括突发事件主动监测、医疗物质储备、流行病学专家以及应急管理机制等。主动监测是早期发现和预警突发公共卫生事件的有效监测机制,包括医院病例监测、症状监测、药品和其他医用商品销售监测,中小学生缺课监测,动物死亡监测等。目前我国主动监测尚在研究中,储备是应急反应的必要基础,包括应急药品和物质储备、现场流行病学工作者和公共卫生实验室储备。应急反应系统组织结构和应急管理形式应在科学基础上,在法制保护下系统建立,并与国际接轨。此外,就公共卫生危机准备和处理提出了具体建议。     

Preventing Transboundary Crises: The Management and Regulation of Setbacks

Setbacks—unanticipated, unwanted, and often sudden checks on moving forward—are common in crisis prevention. Managing setbacks, however, is rarely discussed. Even less discussed is the central role that setback management can play in preventing transboundary crises across interdependent critical infrastructures for electricity, water, transportation, and financial services. With a focus on the ongoing financial crisis and on strategies for resilience and anticipation, the article draws out implications for crisis prevention as the first, rather than last, line of defense in managing future crises.     

Improving crisis management in the imperfect world of foreign electoral assistance

This article's primary focus is on improving techniques of crisis management of electoral assistance. In so doing it intends to contribute to a more systematic sharing of information about lessons learned and possible responses to the pressure of providing electoral support when time is short. It is therefore concerned with situations in which there are not only the usual large gaps between ideal and reality, a host of imperfections and uncertainties, a multiplicity of chains of command and conflicting agendas, a shortage of resources, and endless possibilities for genuine and crafted misunderstandings, but also a lack of time for analysis and preparation. The article looks at such ‘rushed’ electoral assistance from the perspective of the ‘manager’; this is a term that will serve as shorthand for a hypothetical electoral assistance manager in an international governmental or non-governmental donor agency who is given responsibility for managing the assistance but is usually not part of the political or policy-making office of his or her embassy or agency. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crisis and Response: Treasury Cash Balance Crisis in Thailand 1980-1982

The author traces the treasury cash balance crisis in Thailand from 1980-1982 and finds that the crisis was a result of economic, political and technical factors. The world recession had a significant impact on revenues, as did the inability of the government to accurately project revenues. Politically, budget participants evaded prescribed procedures and resorted to emergency spending, which resulted in expenditures beyond budget planning. The Thai government resorted to borrowing, spending cuts, adjusting corporate tax payments and increasing taxes to cope with the crisis. The author calls for legal reforms to limit discretionary spending.     

The Continuity of Change: Public Budgeting and Finance Reforms over 70 Years

Fiscal management in the national government remains just as important to public administration in 2007 as it was in 1937. Arthur E. Buck and Harvey C. Mansfield's critique of the fragmentation among congressional, bureaucratic, and presidential interests in budgeting and accountability is a classic for those who argue for stronger presidential power and capacity within American government. This analysis draws the field's attention to what we can learn about the politics of management reform from the successes and limitations of this landmark study—lessons that will serve the field well as it confronts new issues and reform agendas in the future.