The Relationship Between Crime and Stop,Question, and Frisk Rates in New York City Neighborhoods

The current study builds on prior research in an analysis of the relationship between monthly violent and property crime rates in New York City census tracks and the New York City Police Department’s highly contentious stop, question, and frisk (SQF) policy. We find that higher doses of SQF are associated with small crime reductions generally and specific crime reductions for stops of blacks, Hispanics, and whites. But the way the policy was implemented precludes strong causal conclusions. Now that a federal court has intervened and SQF is undergoing change, the court monitor, New York Police Department, and city officials should partner with researchers in experimental evaluations to determine the optimal mix and dosage of enforcement strategies that safeguard the rights and liberties of citizens while enhancing public safety.     

Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

A methodological critique of Cantor and Land's (1985) approach to the time series analysis of the crime–unemployment relationship is developed. Error correction models for U.S. homicide and robbery rates for the years 1946–1997 are presented to illustrate procedures for analyzing nonstationary time series data. The critique is followed by a discussion of methodological problems in work by Devine et al. (1988), Smith et al. (1992), and Britt (1994, 1997) that builds on Cantor and Land's approach.     

Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: A Comment on Greenberg

Several ways in which the specification of the Cantor and Land (1985) conceptual model of transient relationships between aggregate unemployment and crime rate fluctuations differs from that of Greenberg (2001) are noted. It follows that we do not accept Greenberg's Eq. (1) as a valid theoretical representation of the processes of interest. We briefly review the substantive context from which our investigation began in the mid-1980s. We also review the time series properties of our model and of the aggregate unemployment and crime rates used in its estimation. We note how the time series behavior of various crime rates determines which parts of the Cantor and Land model are and are not likely to be estimated as statistically significant for those series. We conclude with some comments on the limitations of aggregate time series research designs for testing the behavioral hypotheses used to generate expected relationships between aggregate unemployment and crime rates and suggest some alternative research designs.     

Knowledge on DNA Success Rates to Optimize the DNA Analysis Process: From Crime Scene to Laboratory

DNA analysis has become an essential intelligence tool in the criminal justice system for the identification of possible offenders. However, it appears that about half of the processed DNA samples contains too little DNA for analysis. This study looks at DNA success rates within 28 different categories of trace exhibits and relates the DNA concentration to the characteristics of the DNA profile. Data from 2260 analyzed crime samples show that cigarettes, bloodstains, and headwear have relatively high success rates. Cartridge cases, crowbars, and tie‐wraps are on the other end of the spectrum. These objective data can assist forensics in their selection process.The DNA success probability shows a positive relation with the DNA concentration. This finding enables the laboratory to set an evidence‐based threshold value in the DNA analysis process. For instance, 958 DNA extracts had a concentration value of 6 pg/μL or less. Only 46 of the 958 low‐level extracts provided meaningful DNA profiling data.     

Overdispersion and Poisson Regression

This article discusses the use of regression models for count data. A claim is often made in criminology applications that the negative binomial distribution is the conditional distribution of choice when for a count response variable there is evidence of overdispersion. Some go on to assert that the overdisperson problem can be “solved” when the negative binomial distribution is used instead of the more conventional Poisson distribution. In this paper, we review the assumptions required for both distributions and show that only under very special circumstances are these claims true.

The Distribution of Household Property Crimes

Previous studies have established that repeat victimizations occur more frequently than would be expected if households within a particular area were victimized randomly. This implies that characteristics of the household affect the victimization rate. Even controlling for these characteristics, we find that a Poisson model does not capture the distribution of victimizations because repeat victimizations are more concentrated than it would indicate. This leads us to adopt the negative binomial generalization of the Poisson model. Our analysis uses sociodemographic attributes of the household and community-level characteristics to predict victimizations, with the victimization data being the observed number of property crime victimizations from the 1992 British Crime Survey. The negative binomial generalization is found to be highly statistically significant and the crime concentration it implies becomes much more marked as the predicted number of victimizations increases.     

The Market for Scientific Crime Prevention: A Comparative Study of Canada and Venezuela

Crime prevention is an activity that, sooner or later, requires the concourse of science. But the dictates of science may not mesh well with the social, institutional and political considerations that are persistent and powerful determinants of collective action. To the extent that they are ignored, crime prevention is less scientific and more pragmatic. Using a marketing metaphor, this paper examines selected aspects of the supply of and demand for scientific crime prevention in Canada and Venezuela from 1949 to the present. In both countries, academic entrepreneurs are revealed to be a necessary factor in the sale of crime prevention to government. On the demand side, governments adopt and adapt crime prevention policies in relation to their broader perspective on social problems and social change. However, rising crime rates and climates of urgency reduce the attractiveness of crime prevention. Scientific crime prevention is easier to sell when crime rates are stable or declining.     

THE BIG PICTURE: 2010 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY*

Microanalysis holds sway over macroanalysis in contemporary criminology. All of criminology would be better off if greater attention were devoted to the big picture—the relationship between crime and the interplay of institutions in the social systems of whole societies. Microlevel researchers often assume that the reduction of individual criminal propensities leads ipso facto to reductions in aggregate crime rates, but the implied connection is illusive, has not been demonstrated, and is belied by the macroanalysis of crime. The perspectives, methods, and data of macrocriminology also need to be developed, however, if they are to advance our understanding of crime at the level of social systems. Emile Durkheim , Talcott Parsons , Karl Polanyi , and C. Wright Mills have contributed essential building blocks for the study of the big picture of crime. Improvements in the quality and timeliness of aggregate crime data, finally, are necessary to bolster the policy relevance of macrocriminology.     

国际犯罪与涉外犯罪、跨国犯罪关系辨析——以基础概念解析为进路

国际犯罪与涉外犯罪、跨国犯罪之间虽然在起源上具有不可磨灭的历史渊源,但它们在内容上并不具有同一或者包容关系,而是一种即相互交叉又彼此保持一定独立性的关系。只有当涉外犯罪、跨国犯罪具有"国际性"时,即它们的危害性达到国际刑法所要求的严重程度时,才能上升为国际犯罪。而在国际犯罪中,除了具有国际性的涉外犯罪和跨国犯罪外,还包括具有国际性的既不属于涉外犯罪又不属于跨国犯罪的单纯的国内犯罪。     

The Impact of Police Stops on Precinct Robbery and Burglary Rates in New York City, 2003-2010

New York City experienced a dramatic reduction in crime during the 1990s and continuing through the first decade of the current century. Researchers and commentators have debated the role of policing in New York’s crime drop, including the crime impact of New York’s policy of “stop, question, and frisk” (SQF)—yet, prior research on the crime-reduction effects of SQF is limited in important respects. We seek to overcome many of these limitations in a study of SQF effects on yearly precinct-level robbery and burglary rates in New York between 2003 and 2010. Contrary to prior research, the study reveals few effects of SQF on robbery and burglary. We caution against drawing definitive conclusions from both the current and prior research and recommend that future research address both the impact of SQF on crime and possible collateral effects on the rights and liberties of citizens in the communities most affected by the policy.     

Using National Incident-Based Reporting System Data for Strategic Crime Analysis

The utility of the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) forstrategic crime analysis has yet to be explored. The NIBRS represents anadvancement over existing reporting systems and possesses considerableutility to frontline law enforcement with respect to strategic crimeanalysis. This paper discusses the utility of the NIBRS for identifyinglocal and regional trends in narcotics related offenses. As an example, weselected four localities from the 1997 Virginia NIBRS data to examine trendsin the sale/distribution and possession of narcotics. Our analysis showsthat the NIBRS provides significantly more incident-related detail than hasheretofore been available for strategic crime analysis at the regional orstate level. Moreover, the NIBRS provides neighboring communities theopportunity to compare information on emerging crime patterns and criminalenterprises which extend beyond local boundaries. Finally, enhancing localreporting compliance by highlighting the strategic utility of the data tolocal law enforcement will ultimately ensure the quality of the data set,which can then be employed by larger entities as well as criminal justiceresearchers for policy development and planning.     

职务犯罪的经济分析及其防范

职务犯罪行为人利用职权谋取私利具有经济学理性特征,因此,其行为必然遵从经济学的基本法则。用经济分析的方法研究其产生机理,探讨预防措施具有现实意义。基于犯罪经济成本收益理论,通过对职务犯罪的研究,得出如下结论：应增大犯罪成本,控制犯罪收益,从而最终预防和减少职务犯罪。     

Revisiting the Relationship Between the Economy and Crime: The Role of the Shadow Economy

Despite decades of research exploring the relationship between the economy and crime, there is a lack of clarity in this literature. Questions remain, particularly with respect to how the economy is measured and whether the relationship between the economy and crime is the same across contexts. The literature to date has overlooked what is called the “shadow” economy, which represents unreported economic activity. We examine the relationship between traditional measures of the legitimate economy (e.g. unemployment) and crime as well as whether the shadow economy moderates this relationship using a panel of U.S. states from 1997 to 2008. Our results show that the shadow economy reduces the strength of the relationship between the legitimate economy and crime, and the effect of the economy on crime is conditional on the size of the shadow economy.     

犯罪网络分析:社会网络分析在有组织犯罪研究中的应用

在刑事司法领域所使用的"网络"(networks)一词通常是指犯罪组织。一个犯罪网络首先也是一个社会网络,社会网络分析是对社会关系结构及其属性加以分析的一套规范和方法。它主要分析的是不同社会单位(个体、群体或社会)所构成的关系的结构及其属性。自美国"9.11事件"以来,世界各国政府、学者、媒体逐渐认识到社会网络分析在有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要作用,纷纷使用社会网络分析方法对恐怖主义犯罪等有组织犯罪进行犯罪网络分析、研究,通过解构犯罪组织,发现犯罪成员体系、结构特征与行动目标,从而对有组织犯罪进行有效预防和打击。我国应充分认识社会网络分析在现代有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要价值,全面了解国外有关理论与应用发展,积极采取政府资助项目研发与直接设立研究机构等多种手段,促进犯罪网络分析理论与方法在我国的迅速发展。     

Detection Rates, An International Comparison

Within Europe detection rates vary considerably. The differences are too large to be explained purely by the ability of the police to solve cases. In a study covering nine European countries many other factors (external, organisational and technical factors) influencing the detection rate are identified and the influence is empirically made plausible. Next, a comparison is made between the punishment rate and the detection rate. The fact that punishment rates are more stable is explained by the difference between a crime oriented and an offender oriented approach. Also a link is made with the discretionary powers of the police and prosecution.     

Connecting the dots: Crime rates and criminal justice evaluation research

The National Research Council’s report on evaluating anticrime programs contains sensible suggestions for improving evaluation research in criminal justice but neglects the important role of substantive theory in linking evaluations of anticrime initiatives to variation in crime rates across time and place. A working knowledge of crime rates is essential for designing and evaluating anticrime programs. This essay calls for the development of a policy evaluation infrastructure that would support the continuous monitoring of crime rates, generate knowledge of crime-producing conditions, and link evaluation research findings to one another and to expected policy outcomes, notably crime reduction.

Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analyses of Kreise

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or “Kreise” in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. We also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and “null effects” of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies.     

论独立教唆犯之犯罪预备性——以我国刑法第29条第2款的规定为视角

独立教唆犯是预备犯,这是因为,从教唆行为的本质上看,教唆行为是教唆者所教唆之罪的犯罪预备行为,且这种犯罪预备行为的本身在法律上不具有正当性。为了尽早阻断教唆行为对法益的破坏作用,有的国家在刑法总则中对独立教唆犯予以原则性地处罚规定,采取的是非独立预备犯的立法模式,将犯罪构成要件的可罚性前置化。采取独立预备犯立法技术的国家,在刑法分则中为一些独立教唆行为规定了特定的犯罪构成要件,使一些教唆行为成为其相应的犯罪构成要件的实行行为,但不是教唆者所教唆之罪的犯罪实行行为。     

有组织犯罪的政治经济分析

当前,在现代工业文明日趋成熟、民主政治日渐完善的同时,有组织犯罪集团正在试图建立一种可以使犯罪活动职业化、企业化、合法化的黑秩序,严重破坏了各国的政治稳定和经济繁荣。有组织犯罪的主要特点和表现形式都说明,它有着较深的政治经济根源,并不是简单的社会治安问题。对此应运用政治经济学的理论和方法研究这种现象的本质特征、内在规律和发展趋势,并从国外入手结合我国实际,探讨行之有效的对策。     

论网上交易犯罪原因

网上交易犯罪是一种经济利益驱动型犯罪，其犯罪成因可通过经济犯罪基本模型进行研究。作为常见的经济犯罪成因分析模型，犯罪成本收益理论认为：网上交易犯罪与犯罪预期收益有关，犯罪预期收益越大，犯罪越可能发生；与直接成本、心理成本、道德成本、竞争成本等间接成本有关，成本越小，犯罪越可能发生：与犯罪被惩罚的概率有关，概率越小，犯罪越可能发生；与被发现犯罪被惩治因数有关，已发现犯罪受到惩罚的概率小，其犯罪可能性也越大；还与个人心理恐惧常数有关，心理恐惧常数越小的个人，其犯罪概率越大。所以，可通过犯罪收益、直接成本、间接成本、机会成本、侦查措施、个体控制等几个方面进行控制犯罪。