"外围国家"上升为"中心国家"的历史经验考察——以美国和巴西为例

独立后至20世纪30年代巴西经济实行初级产品出口型发展模式,虽然它一定程度上促进了巴西经济的发展,但并没有使巴西摆脱"外围国家"(不发达国家或发展中国家)的地位;至70年代巴西根据世界经济发展形势采取了进口替代工业化发展模式,同样也没有缩小与"中心国家"(西方工业发达国家)的经济差距,仍然处于第三世界。而同时期的美国在独立后开始实行保护主义进口替代,有效地保护了国内工业,美国也由此在20世纪初期迅速成为"中心国家";至20世纪70年代全面自由对外贸易进一步巩固了美国"中心国家"的地位。     

中国、墨西哥与美国高技术产品贸易的比较研究——基于动态转移份额分析方法

本文以中国和墨西哥作为研究对象,首先从规模、速度、出口相似度等方面对两国对美国高技术产品贸易进行了比较,进而采用转移份额分析法将两国高技术产品在美国国市场的出口竞争力及其影响因素进行详细研究。结果表明,整体上中国高技术产品在美国市场上的竞争力大于墨西哥,但差距在缩小。文章最后就如何提升中国高技术产品在美国市场上的竞争力提出了一些建议。     

United States Intervention in Post-War Greek Elections: From Civil War to Dictatorship

This article challenges the legitimacy of electoral results in post-war Greece, as well as the political orientation of the Greek people and proves that the issue of United States intervention in Greek politics is not fabricated. Although particular emphasis is given to electoral systems and results, this study also investigates the so-called conspiracy theories that relate such information and events to the installation of dictatorship that marked Greece's long lasting instability. Despite the fact that the years of dictatorial rule are not central to this examination, the causes of the dictatorship are related to both foreign intervention and the Greek “political culture.”     

从边缘到中心:叙利亚危机中的联合国调停

长期以来,联合国是世界上主要的调停提供方。2011年叙利亚危机爆发后,联合国逐渐介入并提供国际调停。目前在叙的联合国调停已经过了依次由安南、卜拉希米、德·米斯图拉参加的三个阶段。在调停进程中,联合国的身份经历了从处于边缘的关注者到联合调停人再到调停的单独牵头者的转变,此间联合国的作用则发生了由以提供和解方案为中心到以提供谈判便利为中心的变化。联合国身份及作用的变迁,受到危机局势的演变、阿盟立场的转变、联合国有限的能力以及国际社会分裂等因素的影响。对于五年来联合国的调停,既需要肯定其成绩,也应该对之加以反思。     

印度与美日海洋安全互动:进攻性现实主义视角

尽管印度并非米尔斯海默所界定的大国,但并不妨碍印度在对外关系中采取进攻性现实主义的外交策略。从历史传统来看,印度主要采取借势战略的进攻性现实主义策略。借势战略之所以成为进攻性现实主义策略,不仅在于其为获取权力服务,还在于特别重视军事能力的准备与运用。通过审慎分析可以发现,借势战略的收益受诸多变量的影响,其中尤以地缘优劣、国家能力强弱、权力权重、国际制度、队友考量、目标或非目标等影响最为突出。印度与美日海洋安全互动正是其对进攻性现实主义借势战略策略的运用,在该借势战略框架中,印度为施动者,针对目标为中国,借势对象为美国、日本,收益目标包括安全、发展与权力,手段则重视军事能力的准备与扩张。正是基于借势战略,印度与美日的海洋安全互动取得了令人瞩目的进展,尤其在推动印太地缘政治形态、共同应对中国的海洋挑战、多边联合军演制度化、军事装备与技术贸易等方面令人印象深刻。不过,根据借势战略收益的框架进行分析,印度与美日海洋安全互动的借势战略收益是复杂的,大致可以分为正向收益、不确定性收益和负向收益。于中国而言,对印度的进攻性现实主义策略应当有清醒的认识,并做好相关防范。     

Hard‐Core Toughie: Donald Trump’s Negotiations for the United States Presidency

This paper examines the negotiation tactics employed by Donald Trump in his 2016 presidential campaign. Drawing on data from multiple sources (interviews, debates, articles, books), our analysis begins with a brief overview of Trump’s personality and philosophy, which offers a basis for understanding his general negotiating approach. We then highlight six competitive tactics and four principles of persuasion that Trump employs, with specific examples of how he used them during the campaign with his primary negotiating counterparts – the other candidates, the Republican Party, the press corps, and the American electorate. Finally, we discuss some of the implications of his negotiating approach and preferred tactics in dealing with domestic and international issues as president of the United States.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

Foreign Policy Dimensions: A Comparison Between the United States and Sweden

In this article we compare the structuring of citizens' attitudes on foreign policy issues in the U.S.A. and Sweden. Most of the studies in this area have been carried out on U.S. data, which have made any generalization of the findings to other states difficult. The material is the 1995 SOM study, with a sample of 2,800 individuals. Swedish citizens' foreign policy attitudes were structured along two dimensions. The first dimension showed similarities with Wittkopf's "militant internationalism" dimension; the second dimension showed similarities with Chittick, Billingsley, and Travis's "multilateralism-unilateralism" dimension. As in the United States, ideology has a high explanatory power on individuals' placement on the first dimension, but in Sweden gender and attitudes on "green issues" have some additional explanatory power. On the second dimension education has high explanatory power in both Sweden and the U.S.A., but in Sweden attitudes on "green issues" are also of importance. In the article we argue for a plausible theoretical interpretation of the Swedish foreign policy dimensions that is somewhat different from the one offered in the American case.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

The United States and central Asia: in the Steppes to stay?

11 September 2001 elevated the importance of the South Caucasus and Central Asia in US global strategy. The Central Asian republics proved crucial bases for military and intelligence operations. The South Caucasus, in turn, provided the only realistic air corridor for the deployment of Europe‐based US forces to Afghan territory. As its Central Asian footprint grows, Washington must consider the interests of key Eurasian powers and demonstrate a sustained economic and political commitment to the region.     

Indonesia Returns to the International Stage: Good News for the United States

Indonesia, the world's fourth largest country, third largest democracy and home to the world's largest community of Muslims, has returned to the international stage. Indonesia's membership in a number of important global communities-it resides physically in Asia but is part of the broader Muslim world, the developing world, and the community of democracies-makes it an important international actor. Many Americans assume that common democratic values will translate into shared foreign policy goals and cooperation between the United States and Indonesia. The two countries do share significant interests, such as counter terrorism, maritime security, and a wariness of China, but also hold starkly different positions on the Middle East peace process and global trade issues. Democracy provides opportunities for the two-thirds of Indonesians who hold anti-American views to influence foreign policy, making it costly for Indonesian leaders to cooperate with the United States. Indonesia's return is good news for America, but the relationship needs to be managed skillfully to maximize benefits for both sides.     

A Fine Balance: India Walks a Tightrope between Iran and the United States

India confronts the conflicting imperatives of Indian domestic politics and its strategic interests when dealing with Iran. As India's global profile has risen in recent years and its ties with the United States have strengthened, this conflict has come into sharper relief. India's traditionally close ties with Iran have become a major factor influencing how certain sections of U.S. policymakers evaluate a U.S.-India partnership. India has tried to balance carefully its relations with Iran and the United States; however, due to intense American pressure, especially after the signing of the U.S.-India civilian nuclear energy cooperation pact, India has moved closer to the United States concerning the Iranian nuclear program. But strong domestic constraints remain that will prevent India from completely abandoning its ties with Iran, even as a re-evaluation of India-Iran bilateral ties is long overdue.     

美国与伊朗关系研究的新作——读范鸿达博士的《美国与伊朗:曾经的亲密》

随着阿富汗塔利班、伊拉克萨达姆政权的相继倒台和国际“反恐”斗争的不断深入,早被美国列为“邪恶轴心”的伊朗被推到国际政治斗争的前沿,尤其是当今伊朗核危机局势的持续紧张,使美国与伊朗的关系再次成为国际社会关注的焦点。其实,在伊朗巴列维国王时期(1941~1979年),美国和伊朗还保持着非常密切的双边关系,伊朗是美国十分倚重的地区重要盟友,而美国则是伊朗独立和安全的重要保证。针对这一时期美伊关系,国内虽然不乏有论文发表,但是缺乏系统的研究成果,可喜的是,这一不足随着范鸿达博士著的《美国与伊朗:曾经的亲密》一书(社会科学文献出…     

A Weary Hercules: The United States and the Fertile Crescent in a Post-Caliphate Era

Since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has tended to engage in regime change missions with a short-term and improvisational approach that focuses on removing adversaries from the battlefield rather than achieving consolidated political gains. Today, Washington may repeat the same mistake by prioritizing the military destruction of ISIS, rather than creating a tolerable political order. The policy challenges are particularly acute because, like a weary Hercules, Washington is confronted with endless labor, but limited capability. The answer is to pursue a long-term strategic approach that aligns the ends and means of war, seeks ugly stability rather than illusory goals, accepts that nation-building in some form is inevitable, and wins the narrative war.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

美国大选和美国走势

奥巴马当选总统是美国的历史性事件。这一历史性的发展有美国社会几百年来融合发展的必然性,也有近期伊拉克战争和当前美国次贷及金融危机带来的偶然性。民主党新政府和国会很可能给伊拉克战争、美国经济和社会带来一些较为重要的变化。但美国内政外交是否会出现、是否有能力实现重大改变是个不确定的问题。美国家长远走向仍可能具有不确定性。