单极体系的影响与中国的战略选择

尽管冷战后形成的单极体系已存在20年之久,但是学术界对这一特殊国际结构的研究尚不充分。本文考察了单极结构在体系层面的基本特征以及这种结构在单元层面造成的影响,尤其关注单极体系的稳定性以及这种结构下主要国家的行为倾向。从现实主义有关国际体系变迁的理论论述出发,本文认为美国主导的单极结构正处于弱化过程中,而无政府状态下大国竞争的压力和政治经济发展不平衡规律是削弱这一结构的基本动力。由于中国是单极体系下成长最为迅速的国家,与美国之间构成崛起国与霸权国的关系,为了摆脱单极体系下的崛起困境,中国需要采用各种战略手段以规避不利冲击和反应,保障国家的和平崛起。     

"新帝国论"--21世纪美国全球称霸的理论范式

超强的综合实力和较好的历史机遇,是"新帝国论"产生的时代背景;"单极稳定论"、"先发制人论"、"主权有限论"、"民主和平论"是"新帝国论"的理论支点;军事、经济、文化是"新帝国大厦"的三块基石.作为美国的新全球战略构想,"新帝国论"标志着美国国家战略理念发生了重大变化,美国由此进入了一个前所未有的扩张期.它将对世界战略态势产生重大而深远的影响.     

从《国际刑事法院规约》看美国霸权维系的困境

本文以美国拒绝加入国际刑事法院为个案研究,试图阐释随着全球化的兴起和国际组织的不断壮大,美国在维系霸权地位时所面临的结构性矛盾.文章认为,国际刑事法院所体现的非国家性与自由主义是西方人权观的具体反映,也是美国在维系世界霸权时对外投射的价值取向,而当这种价值观与美国的现实权势维系产生矛盾时,美国便在"单极体系"的逻辑中陷入两难困境.其结果是削弱了美国价值观的对外投射力,进一步加剧了与欧洲盟国的分裂,并最终危及"单极体系"的合法性与持续性.     

试论"9·11"事件对当前世界多极化进程的影响

冷战结束后,世界多极化与单极化的较量从来就没有停止过.但是"9·11"事件发生后,世界政治、经济形势急转直下."9·11"事件使得世人的目光集中到全球反恐怖主义上来,美国也大肆利用此次事件,乘机强化了其军事恫吓力量,积极推行各项单边主义政策."9·11"事件后,美国的霸权地位相对显得更加突出,美国谋求建立由它主宰的单极世界的步子将加快,单边主义政策更加一意孤行,世界多极化的发展受到了严重的挑战.     

对21世纪初中国安全面临的主要威胁的战略思考

美国作为世界上惟一的超级大国是最有实力对中国安全构成威胁的国家,也是对中国安全构成实际威胁的最大国家.在亚太地区加紧构筑围堵中国的"全月形战略包围圈"是美国新世纪国家安全战略的重要任务.无论美国全球战略怎样调整,对华交往方式怎样变化,只要美国称霸世界的野心不变,其对华政策的本质就不会改变,将中国视为主要对手的基本战略也不会改变.     

从“优势论”到“优先论”:冷战后美国对外政策思想的演进

冷战结束后,美国迎来了独特的单极机遇。国际结构总体有利的客观现实和自由民主已然胜利的主观认识,让美国产生了"优势论"的社会思潮。美国各界形成了维持乃至扩大美国优势地位的目标共识,但关于实现这一目标的手段,则出现了不同的学说。自由主义者突出美国权力的正当性,保守主义者则强调美国权力的强制力。无论是倡导合作,还是推行强制外交,美国都以维持优势地位为准绳,根据潜在威胁的严重程度,采取不同的应对措施。对于局部性挑战,美国会以重申博弈规则的方式加以因应;对于整体性挑战,则会以重塑博弈结构的方式加以应对。美国重点关注安全和经贸领域,重点防范中国和俄罗斯。冷战后几届美国政府的外交实践显示,美国维持其优势地位的基本目标长期不变,变化的只是实现这一目标的方式和方法。美国政府的最新政策调整依然受这一规律的约束。所谓"美国优先",也依然是"美国优势"的一种变体。     

黎笋集团在柬埔寨和老挝的罪恶行径

近年来,黎笋集团在苏联的唆使下,不顾国内外人民的谴责,为实现其建立印度支那联邦的野心,对柬埔寨和老挝进行了大规模的军事侵略和占领,因而印度支那局势严重恶化,致使这两个国家的人民处于贫穷、饥荒的境地,造成了世界历史上罕有的大灾难。黎笋集团犯下了滔天罪行。 一、黎笋集团建立印度支那联邦的野心     

越南南方民族解放陣綫中央委員会关于越南南方与古巴团結反对美帝国主义侵略者的声明

現在,美帝国主义又一次赤裸裸地暴露了它侵略古巴共和国的野心,造成了紧张局势,并威胁着中美地区和全世界的和平。 在过去的两个月(一九六二年八、九月)里,美国在关塔那摩軍事基地的飞机和軍舰連續侵犯了古巴的領空和領海。美国的飞机和軍舰还悍然轰击了古巴的船只和威胁与古巴有貿     

俄伊传统关系终结之思考

俄伊关系是苏伊军事合作关系的继承和发扬。俄伊传统关系的终结意味着俄罗斯在伊战略利益的丧失,亦意味着美国全球扩张战略中又一个重要目标的实现和大国在伊利益排序作有利于美国的转移。对伊战争隐含美国多重利益目标,这由美国霸权主义野心和单边主义行为所决定。此外,根据逻辑推断,存在着下一个俄(或X)——X关系终结的可能,应引起国际社会高度重视。     

全球结构冲突与美国霸权的合法性危机--解读伊拉克战争后的世界政治

本文以全球化为背景,分析了伊拉克战争的性质、特点及其与全球权力结构的关系.作者认为伊拉克战争不是海湾战争的延续,而是一场新型的全球化战争.伊拉克战争在一定程度上动摇了国际法体制,但不会出现所谓的战后新世界.伊拉克战争具有的特点及其体现的全球结构冲突,在今后一段时期内仍将决定世界政治的发展方向,而这种世界政治的发展方向将使美国的世界霸权遭遇更大的合法性危机.     

How the East Asian Crisis Will Change International Relations

We may expect regional response to the tension and conflict in Asia begun by China in 2009 gradually to transform the international order in that region, where the United States has been the active great power. Today the United States is so overextended in commitments and so lacking in force structure (and political will) that she can no longer play that role. Nor, however, has China succeeded in her initial assumption that regional powers would defer to her vastly increased military power. Unless China finds a way to extricate herself, we may expect regional powers, each strengthening herself, to grow closer together as a group in which Tokyo plays an unaccustomed central role, both in diplomacy and arms supply, although in coordination with the United States. North Korea is also highly dangerous. The likely outcome is greater military strength generally, with South Korea and Japan nuclear powers.     

‘Don’t become a lost specimen!’: polygyny and motivational interconnectivity in Kyrgyzstan

ABSTRACT

Why would a woman agree to wed a legally married man when the state would neither recognize her marriage nor grant her alimony, child support or inheritance rights? Although the Communist Party curtailed the rate of openly acknowledged polygynous marriages among the Kyrgyz, its work was undone by glasnost and perestroika, which ushered in a permissive environment. This article highlights constructions of gender as a driver of polygyny in Kyrgyzstan from the perspective of women who voluntarily become second wives. The Kyrgyz case suggests that the cultural value of marriage and motherhood – traditions that grant women communal identities, power and prestige – might lead a woman to consent to second-wife status. I employ the concept of motivational interconnectivity, defined as two or more related reasons women make important personal decisions that have societal repercussions, to explain a woman’s decision to become a second wife.     

Democratisation and control: fast track and local government reforms in Zimbabwe

Fast track land reform in most instances has been treated as a process only entailing the redistribution of formerly white-owned land to blacks. However, there are other deeper changes that have not yet been coherently analysed, such as the nature of local power relations and the local government system; especially the manner in which it balances the interests of traditional authority and elected authorities. The local government system in fast track areas is in a state of flux. On the one hand, there is potential for a more inclusive and participatory model of local government, and on the other hand, however, official processes through legal enactments suggest that policy craftsmen are still intent on continuing with policies that promote the establishment of two competing sites of power. This paper explores the manner in which rural local government has been treated in the literature, and how it is being re-established in the aftermath of the ‘jambanja’, a period in which the ‘rule of law’ was literally suspended. Rather than depending only on official processes, the field evidence that analyses the actual practice of local government is also utilised. The paper contributes towards a more coherent understanding of the links between the colonial state's control imperative and the post-colonial's ambition to exert similar control, albeit under different political conditions.     

U.S. and Japan’s trends in attitudes toward the Korean peninsula

This article argues that Japan would not only be concerned about the creation of a united Korea, which could be a serious economic and political rival in her own backyard, but would actively fear the prospect of the extension of Chinese or Russian military influence to the Straits of Tsushima through a Korean regime that leaned towards either of these powers. For the U.S., too, while there might be political advantages in the appearance of a serious economic rival to Japan, these would be greatly outweighed by the possibility of the same extension of Chinese or Russian military influence feared by Japan. This is evident in the strategic, economic, and diplomatic objectives and interests of the powers in the peninsula. This article concludes that the coexistence of the two Koreas will be not only inevitable for the time being, but ultimately desirable for the external powers.     

Bringing Realism Back In: Explaining China's Strategic Behavior in the Asia-Pacific

This article argues that offensive realism is applicable to explain China's strategic behavior. Contrary to constructivist and liberal arguments, ideational and domestic factors are not the primary causes of China's strategic behavior. Instead, structural and material factors such as anarchy and the distribution of relative power significantly shape how China behaves in the Asia-Pacific. Furthermore, they have a larger impact relative to non-material/unit-level variables on China's policymaking. Available evidence strongly indicates that China's strategic behavior is driven by power maximizing calculation. China's grand strategy, its maritime ambition as well as naval modernization, and rapid growth rate of military expenditure all confirm the hypotheses of offensive realism.     

也论差猜时期泰国的印支政策

柬埔寨问题产生后 ,印支政策是泰国外交政策的核心。差猜上台后实施的“战场变商场”政策因其变化性而受到广泛关注。该政策既反映了泰国政治变迁 ,又表现出泰国外交政策的继承性 ,同时亦展现了泰国的地区雄心。实质上 ,差猜时期泰国的印支政策是“双轨政策” ,即“一轨”为“战场变商场”政策 ,另“一轨”是 :以外长西提为首的泰国外交部实施 (与东盟集体政策一致 )的政策。双轨政策实质上反映了泰国国家利益 (远期与近期 )的分歧与协调及国家利益与东盟地区利益的分歧与协调。     

Unity and Alliance: The Financial Future of Greater China

Greater China has been separated and divided for over a century. The reunification of Hong Kong and Macao on the eve of the New Millennium has paved the way for Greater China to reunify as a single economy with a single internationalized currency. History shows that financial and monetary collaborations are essential to the future of Greater China in the global arena. We argue that collaboration might begin with a common board in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei for Greater China enterprises to list and trade in one synchronized market. The common board would also facilitate public and private bonds in support of the infrastructural development and globalization of Greater China enterprises. Due to its established financial market, system and culture, Hong Kong would be the undisputed home of the Greater China Enterprises Board. Financial collaboration would advocate monetary alliance when the Chinese renminbi is fully convertible. When the time comes, the offshore renminbi based in Hong Kong would become the counterpart of the Eurodollar in London. The Asianyuan, as it might be called, would be the truly internationalized and globalized renminbi.     

A New Asian Order and the Role of Japan

China is changing the international order in East Asia. It is not only a matter of a power transition, but also a matter of a change in the international system. Chinese people tend to see the world order in hierarchical terms as they did for centuries; nationalism is used as a tool of national integration; and government control of the military is weakening. These are the factors behind the rise of China. If these trends continue, a hierarchical order with China as hegemon might be established in East Asia. It seems as if we are returning to the period before the nineteenth century when China led the world. However, the international order in the twenty-first century has to be based upon such principles as the rule of law, peaceful solution of conflict, democracy, and human rights. In order to establish such an order, Japan and other countries that have committed to those values should unite firmly. China also would benefit very much from that order in the long run.     

Controlling the unruly agents – linkages between accountability and corruption within the executive structures of Botswana

ABSTRACT

Representative democracy entails delegation of power to representatives and other actors within the political system. Oftentimes, the delegating party has little insight into the actions of the person(s) to whom power is delegated. Ensuring that the power-holder does not misuse his/her powers is, therefore, a challenge. This article analyses accountability mechanisms through which the delegating party can prevent and detect misuse of power in the form of corruption. The article argues that political institutions contribute towards such mechanisms being available/unavailable to the delegating party. The analysis focuses on the case of Botswana, where executive structures stipulate the accountability mechanisms available to principals. As shown by the analysis, principals have formal access to many such mechanisms. Oftentimes, however, these mechanisms are not applied. The analysis shows that accountability alone cannot explain levels of corruption within executive structures of Botswana but that informal rules also explain the presence/absence of corrupt practices.     

South Africa’s multiple faces in current climate clubs

Climate clubs emerged as a concept to revitalise the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and mitigate the free-riding problem. The underlying idea suggests that countries committed to reducing emissions can advance a stable coalition in the form of a club with other countries. As a result, more countries would put forth targets for more ambitious emissions reductions. This article analyses South Africa’s memberships in current climate related clubs. We contextualise South African climate club governance in its wider geopolitical and national context of low-carbon development. The purpose of the analysis is to identify if and how South Africa can possibly contribute to advancing ambition for change within climate clubs. Furthermore, it advances ideas about possible design options for climate clubs that may appeal to developing countries.