试论未来中国经济增长模式的选择

中国实行经济体制改革以来,基本上是以放权让利为主线。中国的经济增长模式也从中央政府推动型向中央政府和地方政府共同推动、地方政府推动力增强的模式演变。随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立与完善,中国经济增长的模式也逐步由政府推动型转向政府宏观调控下的企业推动型。使企业成为市场的真正主体,是未来中国经济增长模式的唯一选择。     

Global Travel Gurus Choose Beijing

THE 10th Global Travel and Tourism Summit will convene in Beijing from May 25 to 27, 2010, hosted jointly by the China National Tourism Administration and the Beijing Mtmicipal People＇s Government. This yearly event of the World Travel and Tourism Council （WTrC） is the premiere gathering of the world＇s travel and tourism industry leaders.     

China's Future Economic Regionalization

This paper investigates China's economic growth potentials and limitation up to 2020 and recommends a trend of economic regionalization. A sustainable growing economy is a necessity for China's future stability. The growth sustainability of the Chinese economy depends essentially on its continued commitments to institutional reform and economic deregulation. China's relaxation of government intervention in economic activities has led and will be leading China to decentralize its central governmental authority over economic planning and control. This will consequently stimulate the emergence of regional economies in Mainland China. In the next two decades, there will likely be 10 regional economies with relatively independent industrial structures emerging in Greater China (or the Chinese Economic Area of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and the Mainland) as a result of economic liberalization and decentralization.     

经济发展与经济增长

增长与发展是两个内涵不同的概念,但长期以来人们往往不予区分,结果导致经济发展步入有增长无发展或有发展无增长的误区。因此,仔细斟酌与体味两者的不同,绝不是经济学家的文字游戏,在实践上将两者有效地结合起来,对我国实现“十五”计划具有重要现实意义。     

China's Unbalanced Economic Growth

This paper summarizes empirical findings and results from the author's most recent research publication in Chinese: China's Unbalanced Economic Growth. It studies China's economic growth with a special emphasis on its regional disparities. It provides an analysis of China's overall economic landscape as well as an empirical study of China's unbalanced regional development. Based on its quantitative findings and results, the author predicts the emergence of ten Chinese metropolitan economies in the early twenty-first century and recommends a regional development strategy as well as implementation policies for China's future development. The major empirical findings, results and conclusions of this research are outlined in three sections: the first describes China's economic future—the emergence of ten regional metropolitan economies, the second reports the empirical findings of China's national and regional economic disparities and discusses policy implications, and the third investigates China's future economic growth and discusses its growth limitations.     

Economic Growth in Shanghai

TheFortune500tradition,begunin1954,hasgrowntobehighlyrespectedbybusinesspersonsallovertheworld.In1995,Fortunebegananothertradition,theannualFortuneGlogeForum.TheforumbringstogetherleadersfromtheFortune500companiessothattheymaydiscussmattersonworldeconomicdevelopment.THISSeptember,Shanghaiwillhostthe1999FortuneGlobeForum.Theforum,organizedbyFortunemagazine,willbeattendedbyCEO'sfromtheFortune500companies.Attendeeswilldiscussissuesconcerningglobaleconomicgrowthandthefutureeconomicdevelopm…     

经济增长、模型再造与中国经济增长方式的转变

经济增长理论是社会经济发展的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学派,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论,它大体经历了三个发展阶段。现代经济增长理论及模型的建立强调科学技术进步、人力资本积累对经济增长的促进作用。但是,发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整地建立经济增长理论及模型,因此,我们必须遵循马克思的方法论,从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并指导中国社会经济建设实践,特别是经济增长方式的转变实践。     

Economic Growth and Share Returns

DESPITE gloomy times for the world economy in the wake of the global financial crisis, China’s economy continues to lead the world by growing at over nine percent per year. However,     

公共教育财政支出与地方经济发展

借助VAR模型,利用C市1979-2009年的教育支出与经济增长数据进行实证研究,发现当期的教育投资的经济增长弹性为0.5451。运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对C市的教育支出和实际经济增长之间的内在关系进行实证分析,结果表明教育投资与实际经济增长之间存在着明显的互馈关系,并在长期内稳定地存在着协同互动的均衡关系。     

台湾经济开放度与经济增长关系的实证研究

对外贸易和引进外资是战后台湾经济发展的动力和生命线。本文运用协整分析技术 和Granger因果关系检验对台湾经济开放度与经济增长的长期均衡关系作实证检验。结果表明, 台湾经济开放度各项指标与经济增长均存在正向的协整关系;台湾GDP增长是其外资依存度和 实际关税率提高的原因,而外贸依存度的提高促进了台湾GDP的增长;同时,台湾经济增长与 两岸贸易依存度互为因果关系,相互之间的协整关系也最强。因此,改善两岸贸易失衡状况,促 进两岸投资贸易正常化,是台湾经济实现持续稳定增长的主要途径之一。     

中国国情与发展问题展望--著名经济学家胡鞍钢教授访谈

记者:胡教授您好!感谢您接受我们的采访.您刚刚出席了国际人口与发展论坛,今天又为武汉的各级领导干部作了中国国情与发展问题的精彩报告,请您为我们<长江论坛>的读者就这个主题谈谈您的有关研究. 胡鞍钢教授:好的.2002年党的十六大提出了一个大战略,我把它称之为"中国大战略",就是全面建设小康社会.这就必须弄清楚中国的国情和发展的基本特点是什么,它的大致的轮廓怎么样,哪些因素决定和影响中国的长期发展等等,要对中国发展的战略目标、战略意义、战略资源、综合国力作出一个总体的、客观的、历史的估价.     

泡沫、信心与经济增长

在现代经济生活中，投资与消费的信心对于经济增长具有极其重要的意义。这是因为在现代工业化发达的国家里，供给的瓶颈已经基本消除，经济增长的主要约束不是来自于供给，而是来自需求。假如没有消费，就不会有投资，从而也就不会有增长。在一个以股权融资为主的市场经济国家里，投资者与消费者的信心与股票市场的泡沫有着密切的关系。一般而言，一个没有泡沫的股票市场其投资机会是不多的，当然，在股票市场的泡沫不可持续时，投资也将是不可持续的。历史的经验表明，股票市场不可以没有泡沫，否则经济增长就将难以实现，但是泡沫必须是可…     

The Key to Promoting Economic Growth

The low contribution of consumption to economic growth has become a source of anxiety for Chinese economic officials. With a sharp decline in exports as a result of the international financial crisis, the Chinese Government hopes that consumption will become a new engine of economic growth. The aim of promoting domestic demand is very clear in the 4-trillion-yuan ($586-billion) economic stimulus package the government approved last fall. How should we assess the present situation of consumption in China and...     

基于外贸视角的经济增长方式转型——以长江三角洲地区为例

中国发达地区传统的经济增长方式转型是牵引中国经济持续发展的主要动力。从对外贸易的角度审视,尽管长江三角洲地区外贸总量快速增长,但加工贸易增值系数和经济效益不高,在全球产业链中处于低端。以往依靠税收优惠和稀缺土地资源进行的招商引资,在带动地区经济规模的扩张和外贸粗放增长的同时,也产生了成本上升和资源无法支撑外贸继续发展的副作用。频繁遭遇的各种贸易壁垒,则从国外市场的需求和生产技术国际标准方面,构成了对长三角地区外贸发展模式的倒逼机制。增强自主技术创新的能力,积极探索引资方式的创新,稳步推进“走出去”的多元化战略,建设和完善高效应对贸易摩擦的机制,才能实现经济持续、稳健、快速的发展。     

China Can Maintain Its Economic Growth

正EARLIER this year sections of the Western media tried to spin a story that the world economy was experiencing"severe slowdown in China"and"strong recovery in the U.S."In other words,China’s economy was allegedly in trouble and the U.S.was doing well.Now that the factual data is in for the fi rst half of the year it shows the opposite was true.China’s economic growth was 7.5 percent to the second quarter of 2014;that of the U.S.was 2.4 percent.China’s economy thus grew more than three times as fast as the U.S.’s.Still more signifi cantly for the U.S.,its own statistical agencies and the IMF have offi cially revised their projections for long-term U.S.growth.Both now estimate it at     

制度创新与我国的经济增长

自 1978年以来 ,我国实际GDP以 9 5 1%的速度高速增长。无论是从投入角度还是从产出角度分析 ,支撑我国经济高速增长的最关键因素都是以经济体制变革为主的制度创新。因此 ,我国经济的持续稳定增长有赖于体制变革的进一步深化和制度创新的进一步拓展。     

An Altered Pattern of Economic Growth

CHINA'S economic boom has been a focus of world attention For more than a decade. Its GDP having increased almost 13-Fold in the past 15 years, economy and development are two of the most Frequently heard buzzwords in the Chinese media. China is also holding its own within the global economy. and in 2004 was the number one contributor to global trade growth. Products "Made in China" are to be seen in every country in the world, as are Chinese investors. The rapidly growing Chinese economy has indisputably brought with it improvements to living standards, but has also engendered social problems. At the Fourth Session of the Tenth National People's Congress. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao listed in his 2006 government work report the problems that have emerged in the past five years of economic and social development. They are: an irrational economic structure; lack of motivation to innovate: excessive consumption of energy resources; alarmingly high environmental pollution; uneven regional development and a widening income gap; and sluggish promotion of social welfare. In order to solve these problems, the Chinese government has proposed a new pattern of economic growth whose emphasis is on social development and conserving energy and resources. Within this new development mode, economic growth will depend less on resource consumption and more on technological and human resources. In the past, the government sacrificed rural interests in order to boost industrial development in urban areas. Its current plan is to invest in and channel funds towards stimulating the rural economy, and also to make various public services available throughout China's vast countryside.     

区域开放度与湖南经济增长实证分析

一、理论模型在一个开放的区域系统中,用支出法核算国内生产总值,就是核算该区域经济社会在一定时期内区域内的居民消费需求(C)、区域外的商品需求净值(X-M)、政府购买(G)及投资(I),在这样的区域系统中,国内生产总值为:Y=C I G (X-M)(1其中:C=a bYdI=Id If=I0-dr M=M0 mYT=T0 tY Id—区内投资;If—区外投资(区域外资本,包括国外及国内其它地区投资)。于是有:Y=a bYd Id If G X-M0-mY,又:Yd=Y-T。若假定不存在转移支付即G=T,另外,假设Id=I1-hr,I1表示区域内的自发投资,h表示区域内投资的利率敏感系数。这样,(1)式就可以写成…     

香港经济形势及未来发展趋势探析

跨入新世纪，香港经济遭遇了较大的困难与挑战，以致某些香港人士对香港经济前景比较悲观，众多学者也对香港经济未来趋势及定位提出了各种看法与建议。我认为，尽管香港经济面临各种困难，但同时也存在着重大发展机遇，关键是要认清当前的经济形势，