The uniform crime reports revisited

Of all criminal justice statistics in the United States, the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) are the most widely known, used, and criticized. While the criticisms leveled at the UCR have been many and varied, attempts to assess the effects of the shortcomings of the UCR have been rare. Unfortunately, national sources of data against which the UCR can be gauged are very limited. There are, however, two such sources which may be used—homicide statistics collected by the Center for Health Statistics and the 1967 National Opinion Research Center victimization survey. While only very crude comparisons can be made between the UCR and data from these two sources, the results suggest that for homicide trends and the geographic distribution of “index” offenses, UCR and non-UCR sources depict similar patterns.Finally, procedures which various researchers have proposed for constructing a “crime index” are compared to the simple-sum method used by the UCR. When counties are used as the unit of analysis, most of the weighting schemes examined are found to order the counties in similar fashion. The implications of these results are briefly discussed.     

American Terrorism and Extremist Crime Data Sources and Selectivity Bias: An Investigation Focusing on Homicide Events Committed by Far-Right Extremists

This paper examines the reliability of the methods used to capture homicide events committed by far-right extremists in a number of open source terrorism data sources. Although the number of research studies that use open source data to examine terrorism has grown dramatically in the last 10 years, there has yet to be a study that examines issues related to selectivity bias. After reviewing limitations of existing terrorism studies and the major sources of data on terrorism and violent extremist criminal activity, we compare the estimates of these homicide events from 10 sources used to create the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB). We document incidents that sources either incorrectly exclude or include based upon their inclusion criteria. We use a “catchment-re-catchment” analysis and find that the inclusion of additional sources result in decreasing numbers of target events not identified in previous sources and a steadily increasing number of events that were identified in any of the previous data sources. This finding indicates that collectively the sources are approaching capturing the universe of eligible events. Next, we assess the effects of procedural differences on these estimates. We find considerable variation in the number of events captured by sources. Sources include some events that are contrary to their inclusion criteria and exclude others that meet their criteria. Importantly, though, the attributes of victim, suspect, and incident characteristics are generally similar across data source. This finding supports the notion that scholars using open-source data are using data that is representative of the larger universe they are interested in. The implications for terrorism and open source research are discussed.     

POVERTY,INFANT MORTALITY,AND HOMICIDE RATES IN CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE: ASSESSMENTS OF CRITERION AND CONSTRUCT VALIDITY*

This article assesses the extent to which the infant mortality rate might be treated as a “proxy” for poverty in research on cross-national variation in homicide rates. We have assembled a pooled, cross-sectional time-series data set for 16 advanced nations from the 1993–2000 period that includes standard measures of infant mortality and homicide and contains information on the following commonly used “income-based” poverty measures: a measure intended to reflect “absolute” deprivation and a measure intended to reflect “relative” deprivation. With these data, we assess the criterion validity of the infant mortality rate with reference to the two income-based poverty measures. Also, we estimate the effects of the various indicators of disadvantage on homicide rates in regression models, thereby assessing construct validity. The results reveal that the infant mortality rate is correlated more strongly with “relative poverty” than with “absolute poverty,” although much unexplained variance remains. In the regression models shown here, the measure of infant mortality and the relative poverty measure yield significant positive effects on homicide rates, whereas the absolute poverty measure does not exhibit any significant effects. The results of our analyses suggest that it would be premature to dismiss relative deprivation in cross-national research on homicide, and that disadvantage is conceptualized and measured best as a multidimensional construct.     

An Assessment of the Quality of Homicide Data in the Supplementary Homicide Reports: A Research Note

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)’s Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) is a national-level incident-based data clearinghouse for homicide events in the USA used in countless research studies to track homicide trends, test theory, and analyze policy. Despite its wide use, the SHR has well-known limitations. This research note examines the accuracy of the information in the SHR by comparing homicide cases in Newark, New Jersey with their respective data to determine the level of disagreement between the data sources, which variables exhibit the greatest disagreement, and the case-related variables related to the disagreement. Uniquely, we do this for cases where offenders are known in the SHR. Our findings suggest that variables such as victim-offender relationship and circumstance have high disagreement even when the SHR reports an offender, and that the most important covariate of this is time to close the homicide investigation with an arrest. Research implications of the results are discussed.     

Homicide–Suicide in China: an Exploratory Study of Characteristics and Types

This study explores 63 homicide–suicide cases that include two or more homicide victims, in the People’s Republic of China. This is the first study to examine homicide–suicide in the Chinese context, following calls to develop a research strategy outside of the USA and Europe. Data are derived from a content analysis of Chinese news sources from 2000 to 2014. Findings show homicide–suicide offenders are likely to be married males living in rural cities who kill their intimate partners and/or children inside a residence using knives. Intimate partner conflict and extramarital affairs are precipitating factors in almost half of the incidents. Patterns of homicide–suicide in China are comparable to those in high-income countries, except that firearms are not the primary means in China and there is no evidence of “mercy killing” among older persons, as described in western homicide–suicide studies. Findings are related to the social and economic structure of Chinese society. Clinical and policy implications include the need for greater transparency and a nationwide homicide and suicide tracking system in China, stricter domestic violence laws, postmortem studies of the brains of homicide–suicide offenders, and psychological autopsies on homicide–suicide perpetrators.     

Reliability and validity of cross-national homicide data: a comparison of UN and WHO data

Data reliability and validity are methodological concerns in cross-national analyses of crime, but there is little agreement on which source of data provides the most reliable estimates. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential threat to validity posed by unclassified deaths. The current study aims to (1) assess the reliability of cross-national homicide data from the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO); and (2) investigate the impact of unclassified deaths on the validity of WHO data. Findings indicate that UN and WHO homicide rates (n=56) differ in magnitude, but produce similar outcomes. The UN data produce more robust results and statistical models with less error. The WHO data are more stable and reliable over time, and better suited for longitudinal analyses. Analyses drawing on WHO data should not disregard unclassified deaths because their inclusion provides a more accurate estimate of the true number of homicides.     

HOMICIDE AGAINST THE ELDERLY: A RESEARCH NOTE*

By virtue of the type of data generally used (victim surveys), previous research on the victimization of the elderly is limited in two respects. Not only is the crime of homicide outside the domain of victimization data, but sample surveys uncover too few incidents of victimization of the elderly to permit in-depth analyses. Using the supplementary homicide reports from 1976–1985, we compared patterns and rates of homicide among the elderly and younger populations. Our results suggest that the elderly are in fact the least at risk for homicide generally, as has been reported for other crimes. When examining specific subtypes of homicide, however, the elderly are actually at greater risk than their younger counterparts for homicide committed during a robbery.     

Effects of pretrial juror bias,strength of evidence and deliberation process on juror decisions: new validity evidence of the Juror Bias Scale scores

This study examines the validity of the Juror Bias Scale scores in relation to the mock juror decisions reached in two real life homicide cases before and after the deliberation process. The judicial cases used varied in terms of the ambiguity of the evidence presented at both trials. The WLS methodology for statistical modelling of categorical data was used to analyse data. The findings indicated that the Juror Bias Scale scores successfully predict the verdicts and other related questions before and after deliberations in the case with ambiguous evidence. Furthermore, deliberations caused a generalisation effect on the pretrial juror bias in such a case, and enhanced the differences between defense-biased and prosecution-biased jurors in the verdicts delivered after deliberations. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the use of pretrial juror bias questionnaires in jury selection.     

Education and Marriage as Protective Factors Against Homicide Mortality: Methodological and Substantive Findings from Moscow

This study examines the protective effects of education and marriage against homicide mortality in Russia. Individual data are obtained from death records and population data from the 1994 micro-census, and differentials in mortality from homicide are estimated employing two different methods: a straightforward approach using census data and proportional mortality analysis. We find that the latter underestimates the impact of education on homicide mortality. Despite differences in effect sizes, however, both methods reveal a significantly higher risk of homicide victimization for those that are unmarried and less educated. We conclude that education and marriage likely provide social capital and coping skills that protect individuals against violent victimization, even during times of dramatic social change and dire economic circumstances such as those faced in transitional Russia.     

A fatal interaction: The role of the victim and function of aggression in intrafamilial homicide

Abstract

This study examines the interaction between the victim and offender during intrafamilial homicide. It is hypothesised that in order to understand the fatal consequences of the interaction, a psychological model must take into account both the role of the victim, as either a significant person or non-significant object, and the function of the aggression, as either instrumental or expressive. The combination of these two proposed facets gives rise to four hypothesised styles of intrafamilial homicide. This hypothesis was tested by analysing 191 intrafamilial homicide cases from the Chicago HITS database. Fifty two crime-scene actions were analysed using Smallest Space Analysis which revealed four distinct thematic clusters of variables. These themes corresponded to the hypothesised facets of victim role and function of aggression. Two related to expressive acts, (a) those murders where the offender kills multiple members of his family and subsequently takes his own life, and (b) cases where the victim is not treated as a significant person in the interaction but is simply used as a target for the offender's rage. The other two relate to instrumental acts, (c) those murders that are a culmination of years of abuse in which the offender sees the killing as the only means of escape, and (d) homicides where the victim is seen as an obstacle to the offender achieving a goal and is removed.

A further test of the validity of these four themes in describing distinct forms of interaction within intrafamilial homicide was to examine the proportion of cases which could be classified according to the framework. The hypothesis that each relationship would map onto just one of the interactional styles was tested by χ² which confirmed that such exclusive relationships existed at the p < .001 level of significance. This has theoretical as well as practical implications in that in using this method of classification it may be possible to infer which family member is responsible for killing their relative.     

HOMICIDE,STRUCTURAL FACTORS,AND THE RACIAL INVARIANCE ASSUMPTION*

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.     

When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.

     

Extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States

Prostitute women have the highest homicide victimization rate of any set of women ever studied. We analyzed nine diverse homicide data sets to examine the extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States. Most data sources substantially under-ascertained prostitute homicides. As estimated from a conservative capture-recapture analysis, 2.7% of female homicide victims in the United States between 1982 and 2000 were prostitutes. Frequencies of recorded prostitute and client homicides increased substantially in the late 1980s and early 1990s; nearly all of the few observed pimp homicides occurred before the late 1980s. These trends may be linked to the rise of crack cocaine use. Prostitutes were killed primarily by clients, clients were killed mainly by prostitutes, and pimps were killed predominantly by pimps. Another conservative estimate suggests that serial killers accounted for 35% of prostitute homicides. Proactive surveillance of, and evidence collection from, clients and prostitutes might enhance the investigation of prostitution-related homicide.     

Spousal Homicide in Russia Versus the United States: Preliminary Findings and Implications

Increased research on spousal homicide warrants a cross-cultural comparison that Russia and the United States could provide. As a first step, official statistics and scholarly reports are summarized in terms of spousal homicide rates, sex-ratios of spousal homicide, and circumstances of these homicides and inclusion of attempted homicides in Russia. The statistics are adjusted to compensate for several methodological limitations in establishing homicide data, such as misclassifications of homicides. Adjusted homicide data suggest that Russia has a higher spousal homicide rate, more female victims, and fewer shootings than the United States. Women in Russia may be two and one-half times more likely to be killed by their spouses or lovers than their counterparts in the United States. The break-up of the Soviet Union and contradictory status of women in Russia may contribute to these findings. Future research might include homicide case reviews and perpetrator assessments to substantiate and refine these preliminary findings.     

Young women and gang violence: Gender,street offending,and violent victimization in gangs

Drawing on multiple data sources in St. Louis, this article examines how gendered situational dynamics shape gang violence, including participation in violent offending and experiences of violent victimization. Combining an analysis of in-depth interviews with young women in St. Louis gangs with an examination of homicide reports from the same city, we find that young women, even regular offenders, highlight the significance of gender in shaping and limiting their involvement in serious violence. They use gender both to accomplish their criminal activities and to temper their involvement in gang crime. Consequently their risk for serious physical victimization in gangs is considerably less than young men's. St. Louis homicide data collaborate these qualitative findings. Not only are young women much less likely to be the victims of gang homicide, but the vast majority of female gang homicide victims were not the intended targets of the attack. In contrast, homicide reports suggest that the majority of male gang homicide victims were the intended targets. We suggest that gendered group processes and stratification within gangs are key factors explaining both violent offending and victimization risk in gangs.     

Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three

Building upon and expanding the previous research into structural determinants of homicide, particularly the work of Land, McCall, and Cohen (1990), the current paper introduces a multilevel theoretical framework that outlines the influences of three major structural forces on homicidal violence. The Big Three are poverty/low education, racial composition, and the disruption of family structure. These three factors exert their effects on violence at the following levels: neighborhood/community level, family/social interpersonal level, and individual level. It is shown algebraically how individual-level and aggregate-level effects contribute to the size of regression coefficients in aggregate-level analyses. In the empirical part of the study, the presented theoretical model is tested using county-level data to estimate separate effects of each of the Big Three factors on homicide at two time periods: 1950–1960 and 1995–2005 (chosen to be as far removed from one another as the availability of data allows). All major variables typically used in homicide research are included as statistical controls. The results of analyses show that the effects of the three major structural forces—poverty/low education, race, and divorce rates—on homicide rates in US counties are remarkably strong. Moreover, the effect sizes of each of the Big Three are found to be identical for both time periods despite profound changes in the economic and social situation in the United States over the past half-century. This remarkable stability in the effect sizes implies the stability of homicidal violence in response to certain structural conditions.     

Cold Case Homicides: DNA Testing of Retained Autopsy Sexual Assault Smears

Archival medical examiner specimens may contain perpetrator DNA evidence useful in unsolved (“cold case”) homicides. The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) histology slide archives were searched for sexual assault smears for all 376 female homicides from 1990 to 1999. Of these, the OCME had sexual assault smears on 84 of which 13 slides had sperm. Of these 13, six were still unsolved. DNA profiles were obtained on all six (5 from smears and one from swabs). Combined DNA Index System ( submission resulted in two matches (“hits”) for new suspects. In addition, three suspects were eliminated in two cases. Our review of archival sexual assault smears resulted in DNA profiles that were able to assist in the investigation of four cold case homicide investigations. It may be worthwhile for medical examiner offices to search their archival histology slides for sexual assault smears on previously unsolved cases particularly those prior to the mid‐1990s when DNA testing was less widely available.     

Newspaper Structuring of Crime Views: Images of Homicide In Cali,Colombia

The research reported in this paper was supported in part by the Andrew Mellon Foundation, the American Philosophical Society, and Tulane University's Center for Latin American Studies. The author gratefully acknowledges the assistance of Gloria Lessan, Cecilia Camacho H., and Fany Ackerman at various stages of this investigation.

Though there is considerable consensus that newspapers distort the crime picture, there is little agreement that the papers structure public ideas about crime. In an effort to investigate that possibility free of the complications created by intervening variables, the present research investigates the influence of Cali, Colombia's major newspaper's presentation of homicide news upon Cali citizens' ideas about that type of crime. Media-related intervening variables are controlled because Cali has no local television stations and because crime news, focusing on homicide, is reported in the same quantity, fashion, and location in the daily newspaper. A sample of Cali residents was surveyed to ascertain whether or not their views of certain homicide characteristics coincided with the image presented by the newspaper. Victimization patterns were found not to influence public ideas about homicide. Public views, in the main, were found related to newspaper coverage of homicide. It is suggested that newspaper reporting, while one of several potential influences on public opinion, should not be considered inconsequential in structuring public ideas about crime. The implications of this finding for future research are examined.     

Comparing Homicide‐Suicides in the United States and Sweden

Research on homicides followed by suicides has largely relied on very localized samples and relatively short time spans of data. As a result, little is known about the extent to which patterns within cases of homicide‐suicides are geographically specific. The current study seeks to help fill this gap by comparing twenty years of homicide‐suicide data for Sweden and a large U.S. county. Although some of the underlying patterns in the two countries are similar (e.g., decreasing rates), a number of important differences emerge, particularly with respect to incidence, weapons used, perpetrator age, and relationship of the perpetrator to the victim.