Promises and Pitfalls of Veto Player Analysis

Veto player approaches have come to occupy a central role in comparative politics. This article critically reviews the literature, focussing especially on veto player explanations of policy outputs and outcomes. The review highlights three problems empirical veto player studies have to face: 1) identifying the relevant veto players, 2) establishing equivalence between veto players, and 3) specifying (theoretically or empirically) veto players' policy preferences. The article concludes that empirical veto player analyses advance our understanding of political institutions and their effects, but that they should deal more systematically with the three above mentioned problems.     

Seeking Domestic Approval: Determinants of Ratification Duration in International Trade

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated rapidly since the early 1990s. The ratification of these agreements matters both economically by rendering commitments legally enforceable for outward‐oriented industries and politically by revealing the domestic‐ and international‐level factors which delay or accelerate the entry into force of a PTA. This research note investigates the institutional design and domestic political determinants of the ratification duration for 270 PTAs concluded in the post‐1990 period. The Weibull survival analysis yields two main results: First, neither domestic political constraints measured through veto players nor PTA depth affect ratification spells. Second, ratification processes become more protracted in the presence of stringent formal domestic ratification requirements as well as with a higher number of partner states. These findings suggest that trade negotiators factor in the shadow of ratification in the bargaining phase but still remain subject to formal ratification hurdles and PTA membership dynamics.     

试论外国院外集团活动及其对美国对外政策的影响

美国作为全球唯一的超级大国 ,其对外政策关系到世界各国和国外利益集团的切身利益。各种代表国家和集团利益的外国院外集团为维护各自国家、民族和集团的利益 ,通过委托美国游说公司和具有特殊背景的人作为代理 ,在美国设立官方、民间机构 ,争取美国内具有共同利益的特殊集团的支持等方式进行院外活动 ,影响美国对外政策。因此 ,外国院外集团成为影响美国对外政策的重要因素 ,对美国对外政策的调整变化起着至关重要的作用     

泰国他信政府"进取性"外交政策透视

他信政府上台执政三年多来,围绕恢复和发展经济这个中心任务,推行"进取性"外交政策.泰国外交关系全面发展,为国内经济恢复与发展创造了和平稳定的国际环境,开拓了国际市场,同时也使泰国的国际地位和影响得以全面提高,引起东南亚各国以及世界主要大国的关注.     

The sketch of Brazil’s grand strategy under the Workers’ Party (2003–2016): Domestic and international constraints

After passage of the 1988 Constitution of Brazil, successive democratic governments worked to build bridges between the nation’s foreign policy and its defence strategy, thus fostering a dialogue among administrations and constituencies under the aegis of the rule of law. It was under the Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff administrations that Brazil laid out a grand strategy, implementation of which was interrupted by the controversial impeachment proceedings of 2016. The argument unfolds from a consideration of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics as key structural variables in analysing the challenges faced in the conception and implementation of its grand strategy. The article is organised into two sections: (1) The sketch of a grand strategy: when Brazil’s foreign and defence policies converged; (2) An ambition frustrated? Or, the impact of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics on the conception and implementation of its grand strategy.     

Towards Development-Oriented Foreign Policy in Latin America: The Cases of Ecuador and Chile

Latin American nations have, in varying degrees, struggled to form a foreign policy which successfully incorporates developmental issues. Through an institutional analysis, this article identifies the institutional frameworks within which a development-oriented foreign policy (DOFP) is more prone to emerge. It is argued that DOFP has not been able to be consolidated, as foreign policy has primarily remained a tool for regime survival. This is largely because of the institutional exclusiveness and presidentialism embedded in Latin American diplomacy – making foreign policy notoriously vulnerable to regime appropriation. By conducting a comparison between Ecuadorean and Chilean foreign policy, the article sheds light on the institutional components which have allowed the latter to successfully incorporate a development agenda and the former to stumble in its efforts.     

US Intervention in Colombia: The Role of Transnational Relations

In July 2000, US President, Bill Clinton, signed into law the aid package popularly known as ‘Plan Colombia’. Foreign policy analysts examining the ‘US drug war’ have generally focused upon the perceived national security interests of the US state and/or the intermestic nature of domestic politics, or the economic interests of an imperial US state in explaining US drug policy. I posit that the development, initiation and implementation of Plan Colombia cannot solely be understood through these various nation‐state paradigms, as this process was aided by, and facilitated through, an incipient transnational state. The emergence and consolidation into power of a neoliberal state within Colombia, the role of transnational lobbying by US and Colombian policy‐makers, as well as the influence of transnational corporations all played instrumental roles in the initiation, development and implementation of Plan Colombia.     

The Impact of the USSR on Lithuania's Domestic Policy and Its International Orientation in the Third Decade of the Twentieth Century

This article investigates links between domestic and foreign policy, topics which are usually discussed rather than analyzed in any detail. The case of the USSR and Lithuania is taken as an historical example of the impact of the external factor on domestic policy, and an attempt is made to elucidate how the Soviets tried to influence and correct Lithuania's policy in the inter-war period by providing financial assistance to parties and their press. In this way they sought to set Lithuania against Poland and fuel the conflict between them, so that they would not become reconciled, would not create the so-called Baltic Union with Latvia, Estonia and Finland and would not orient themselves to the West. Using financial and other levers of secret policy, the Soviets contributed significantly to pushing the pro-Western Christian Democratic Party away from power in Lithuania so that the Nationalists, who sought to establish closer relations with the USSR, came to be established. The overseas financing of parties which remained unknown to the public distorted the political process of Lithuania and hindered the maturing of social awareness.     

互动中的普京外交调整与国内改革

9·11事件之后,普京政府抓住国内经济改善、政治结构趋向稳定的时机,大幅度推进了与美国及其他西方国家的关系。大多数民众对普京调整美、俄关系持肯定态度,政治精英层面较民众而言表现出更为复杂的心态。 俄在与西方国家进行战略调整的同时与其他非西方国家接近,也表明俄作为一个欧亚大国毕竟有着不同于一般西方国家的广泛利益。普京政府正是在大国关系调整的背景下,稳步而又积极地推进国内政治、经济的改革。     

文化因素与美国对华外交

在一国对外政策中,文化因素,特别是一个民族长期形成的文化传统、价值观念、民族心理和思维方式对一个国家的外交有着长期、深远的影响.本文在分析美国文化特征的基础上,认为上帝选择的"使命观"和实用主义对美国外交具有深刻的影响.中美两国从18世纪开始交往以来的二百多年历史中,这些特征在美国对华外交中一直起着重要的作用.     

From ‘Green Laggard’ to Regional Leader: Explaining the Recent Development of Environmental Policy in Chile

Environmental policy in Chile has developed rapidly in recent years, and the country has become a regional leader in renewable energy, climate change policy, recycling, and nature conservation. This contrasts with the previous neglect of environmental issues in the country and its depiction as a ‘green laggard’ (Orihuela, 2014: 251) within Latin America. In this article the recent development of environmental policy in Chile is reviewed and five factors affecting this development are analysed: international influences, institutional legacies, a window of opportunity opened by environmental movements, policy entrepreneurship, and business power.     

美国外交政策对缅甸缉毒行动的影响

自1974年以来,缅甸就与美国合作反毒。美国政府向缅甸政府提供8 660万美元的援助,从1974年至1988年分14年付清,主要用来训练缅甸反毒官员和购买用于反毒行动的零件和设备。从美国药品服用管理局获悉,缅甸的努力阻止了价值190亿美元的海洛因流入西方特别是美国的街头。尽管1988年以后美国中止了援助,但在没有任何实质性外部援助的情况下,从1988年至1996年问,缅甸仍阻止了价值450亿美元的海洛因流入美国的街头。同时,缅甸国防军围剿了“金三角”坤沙的孟泰军,迫使坤沙无条件投降。在这场反毒战斗中,美国和西方世界不仅不承认和鼓励缅甸的努力,反而实际上通过实施武器禁运,对缅甸的反毒战斗设置了障碍。     

Mariano Arista and the 1850 Presidential Election in Mexico

Abstract – This article examines the 1850 presidential election in Mexico. It is divided into five sections: party political background, electoral regulations, candidates, campaign, results. General Mariano Arista was the successful candidate in what was the first genuinely contested presidential election since independence.     

Compromising coalitions and duplicitous diplomacy: US support for Tajikistan after 9/11 and its security implications

This article investigates the development of democracy in Tajikistan and analyzes what has earned it the most international acclaim: its secular-Islamic governing coalition. The investigation reveals a compromised and illegitimate coalition that, with American collusion in local regime repression, poses great dangers to international security. The article argues that government repression, leading to increasing radicalization, combines with foreign aid to damage long-term democracy potential in Tajikistan but also works against global security interests by creating doubt about American intentions and possibly allowing a concomitant rise in Islamic radicalism.     

Public Opinion Surveys and USA Foreign Policy Towards Latin America in the Second World War

In this paper, the roles of public opinion polls and agency in foreign policymaking are examined. Based on documents uncovered from the National Archives and Rockefeller Archive Center, this paper presents a more comprehensive picture of the history of public opinion surveys and the shaping of US bureaucracy in their relation to foreign affairs. Further, the paper contends that policymakers are interested in public views pertaining to foreign policy issues, but that private interests (serving their own interpretations of national interest) shape public views, using new techniques as guiding tools.     

Newspaper Coverage of Three Presidential Campaigns in Chile: Personalisation and Political Strategies

We investigate the evolution of political campaign coverage through a content analysis of the topics highlighted in newspapers' agendas during three presidential elections in Chile. Results show an expected increase in the space allocated to the politicians' private lives (privatisation) by 2009, but no change in the attention given to individual politicians' political traits (political competence). Coverage of candidates' campaign strategies had increased markedly in media agendas by 1999, and by 2009 in politicians' agendas. These changes are consistent with some of the recent transformations of political communication in Western democracies, within the framework of the so‐called ‘mediatisation’ of politics.     

浅析马来西亚的农村发展政策与战略

农村的发展在马来西亚经济以及社会、政治的发展中都占有很重要的地位.马来西亚农村的基本特点包括贫困率高、生产率低、缺乏最基本的经济和社会福利设施以及市场不发达等.马来西亚农村经济是以农业为基础的,所以以农村改革为主的马来西亚农村发展政策一直都是农村经济结构转型和消除农村贫困的主要政策工具.自独立以来马来西亚的农村发展取得了很大的成就,但是农村贫困问题以及部门之间和部门内部的发展不平衡问题仍然比较突出.因此,到今天农村的发展依然是马来西亚经济发展的重要内容.     

Nigeria's foreign policy and transnational security challenges in West Africa

This article explores how Nigeria's foreign policy has responded to transnational security challenges in West Africa. It engages in a conceptual overview of the discourse on transnational security and links this with a discussion of Nigeria's foreign policy towards West Africa. Of note is Nigeria's pursuit of a leadership role in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in its quest for security, economic integration and development. Several questions are posed: What do Nigerian policymakers consider to be the most significant transnational threats in West Africa? How and through what legitimate policies and instruments do they respond to such threats? How important is ECOWAS to Nigeria's attempt to respond to transnational threats? And how effective have Nigeria's attempts to influence the ECOWAS agenda in this regard been? Although ECOWAS has remained central to Nigeria's responses to transnational security threats in the subregion, the country has not been able to match its rhetoric on addressing transnational security threats with far-reaching concrete achievements. It is suggested that social transformation of Nigeria's current foreign policy (that is, to one focused and committed to putting people at its centre) and a change in the policies of dominant global powers towards West Africa would enhance human emancipation and eliminate the numerous insecurities confronting the peoples of the subregion.     

Vulnerable Women in a Pandemic: Paid Domestic Workers and COVID-19 in Peru

Paid domestic workers (PDWs) in Peru, who are predominantly women, are one of the most vulnerable labour sectors in the country. We argue that an important factor explaining this is linked to national legislation that grants only partial rights to the sector, thus maintaining inferior labour conditions for such workers. Here we share our analysis of a survey of 314 PDWs, conducted between April and May 2020, confirming that PDWs in Peru are highly unprotected, particularly during the COVID pandemic, in which there has been a lack of comprehensive social protection schemes.