The Danish Election 1998

The article analyzes the Danish national election in March 1998. Jdged from the aggregate figures, Denmark has stabilized. Net volatility was moderate, 'bloc' volatility was close to zero, and despite forecasts of a non-socialist victory, the Social Democratic-led government managed to continue. Further, in the 1990s, the periods between elections have been close to the maximum four years. Therefore, the old picture from the 1970s of Danish politics as highly unstable and as extremely volatile is now outdated. Quite the contrary at the level of individual voters. Close to a third shifted from one party to another, and even among voters who did not shift, a substantial proportion had considered voting for another party. Individual voter mobility seems to be a result of weak voter differentiation between different parties, and not a result of protest and outspoken dissatisfaction. Whatever the explanation, individual volatility is an omen of possible future instability: There is no guarantee that different voter movements will always balance out.     

Brexit,the 2019 General Election and the Realignment of British Politics

The outcome of the 2019 general election—a resounding Conservative majority and an unprecedented defeat for Labour—delivered a decisive electoral verdict for the first time in recent years following a period where British politics has been characterised by instability and indecision. In this article, we draw on aggregate-level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2019 general election result? How far has Brexit reshaped electoral politics? Was 2019 a ‘realignment election’? And, if so, what are the implications? With a focus on England and Wales we show that, although the Conservatives made gains deep into Labour’s working class heartlands, these gains have been a long time coming, reflected in Labour’s weakening relationship with working class Britain. As such, 2019 is not a critical election but a continuation of longer-term trends of dealignment and realignment in British politics.     

Beyond Political Binaries: The 2019 General Election and the Dagenham and Rainham Constituency

This article considers the results of the 2019 general election with reference to the Dagenham and Rainham constituency in outer East London. It was a key target for the Conservatives with a 70 per cent leave voting electorate. It did not change hands and might therefore provide insights into the wider debate regarding future coalitions and strategy within the modern left. This article considers these results with reference to arguments about a ‘Brexit realignment’ on the left and whether Labour should rethink the nature of its political ‘base’. It argues for a more nuanced debate than that which currently exists, built around simple binaries organised around Brexit, class, age, education and geography.     

Strategic Competition in Sequential Election Contests

This paper studies a sequential election contest, such as theAmerican presidential primary, in which several electionsoccur one at a time until a single winner emerges. Theconventional wisdom is such a system benefits a candidatefavored in the initial elections because of momentum. Thispaper uncovers a potentially opposing force if participationis costly and candidates exit when they have unfavorablefuture prospects. A candidate with friendly elections at theend of the contest will typically benefit from the resultinggame theoretic competition.Tension between this strategic effect and momentum helpsexplain several empirical regularities of presidentialprimaries.     

Long-term Changes in Danish Party Politics: The Rise and Importance of Issue Competition

In Denmark and Norway, major research programmes known as the 'power and democracy studies' have evaluated the functioning of the political systems and democracy in general, highlighting numerous changes in both Danish and Norwegian politics over recent decades. However, despite the broad range of studies that characterize both programmes, it is striking how little attention has been paid to changes in party politics and party competition. This article, which focuses on Danish politics, argues that attention to the development of party competition would have been warranted for two reasons. First, party competition has undergone a transformation from class to issue competition. Political parties increasingly focus their efforts on influencing the content of the political agenda rather than positioning themselves with regard to a limited number of issues deriving from their class bases. Second, this transformation arguably explains some of the findings of the power and democracy studies, especially concerning political decision making.     

The General Election in Denmark 1988

Foiketing (Parliament) slates that for the last 30 years it has been Danish policy not to accept nuclear arms on Danish territory (including ports). The government is urged to inform visiting naval ships of this.
Hereatter the Ting (Parliament) proceeds to the next item on the agenda.
Proposal fur motivated agenda set forward by The Social Democrats on April 14 1988     

Forecasts and Preferences in the 1992 General Election

Little attention has been paid to the influence of expectations for victory on the formation of general election preferences in U.S. presidential races. There is good reason to believe, however, that under certain conditions citizens' forecasts of who will win the fall election may influence their preference and their vote. We model preferences during the course of the fall 1992 campaign as a function of two kinds of expectations. First we attempt to identify a component of expectations that is independent of political projection. We discover that expectations based only on information about the race play a prominent role in preference formation early in the fall but decline later as the cost of information drops. Similar results obtain when we include projection in the model of expectations. We conclude that general elections may have some of the same dynamic properties that are observable in primaries. Since early momentum in the fall campaign may influence subsequent preference formation, we contend that leads in early polls are valuable.     

Betting and the 1997 British General Election

How good are political gamblers and bookmakers at predicting election results? In 1997, despite indications from polls, betting markets badly underestimated Labour's Parliamentary majority. But the same applies to a panel of expert 'pundits' and the public generally. The predictions of punters move reasonably in line with pundits and public. And the betting industry scores better when examining percentage vote share. It was close to getting this right, narrowly beating the pundits and all the pollsters. Punters were right to believe polls overstated Labour's percentage lead, but wrong to miss the fact that differential swing would boost its Commons majority.     

Young Voters at the 2005 British General Election

Pronounced declines in the number of young (non‐) voters casting their ballots in 1997 and 2001 has raised the question: are we witnessing a generational disengagement with electoral politics? It is generally understood that voter turnout is strongly related to closeness of electoral competition. This research report examines the results of the 2005 election in the context of the debate on declining youth turnout at general elections. Did a closer competition in 2005 encourage young voters back to the polls?