2004年第二季度国际形势综述

伊拉克动荡加剧，“虐俘”事件余波难平。伊拉克政治重建取得一定进展，相关国家在驻军问题上立场明显分化。伊拉克宗教反美武装与美英联军冲突升温，伊多个重要城市发生激战。四月美军死亡人数过百，为伊战爆发以来单月之最。伊境内“劫持外国人质”     

Changes Since September 11

The international situation has changed considerably in the five years since September 11, and there are many new characteristics that require special attention.     

2004年的美国

2004年是美国的选举年。布什与共和党在大选中经历过非常困难、非常激烈的阶段,但最后却获得了一个“不折不扣”的胜利。这一过程仿佛就是2004年美国内外形势的一个缩影,尽管麻烦、困难不断,但回头看,美国又在“9·11”事件后的战略轨道上,向前迈出了重要的步伐。一、内政贯穿全年的竞选和选举活动,构成了2004年美国内政的主轴。围绕大选的喧嚣与骚动吸引了全世界的关注。2004年大选是继2000年之后又一次争夺非常激烈的大选。尽管选情激烈,布什与共和党却有些出人意料地取得了一个“不折不扣”的胜利。布什在选举人票方面以286∶252获得胜利…     

Weakened by ＂Looking Inward＂

Economists called September 11, 2001 "a day that has transformed the world." Today, however, Europeans will tell you that their lives have been even more greatly influenced by the war in Iraq.Apart from this, Europe is also greatly impacted by its eastward expansion and economic globalization. As a result, the gap between the EU's global ambition and its real power further widens.     

An Overall Review of the International Situation in the Third Quarter of 2004

I.Iraqcontinuedtobeturbulent,andthepost-warreconstructioninIraqkepttough.Inthepastmonths,PresidentBushhadstrivedtodefendhisIraqipolicyasbefore.Butthechangeofthedo-mesticandinternationalsituationhadturnedmuchmoreadverselyagainsthispolicyonIraq.The″9·11″CommissionReportsaidthatnoevidenceshowedSaddamHussein'sregimehadgivenanydirectas-sistancetoterrorists.Whileconfrontedwiththepro-longedviolenceinIraq,Bushhadtoadmit,forthefirsttime,thathehadmiscalculatedthesituationinpostwarIraq,whereinsu…     

U.S. at a Crossroads

On the fifth anniversary of September 11, there are many subjects deserving comment. Here I focus on one issue, the problem of the United States. The world today appears more unstable and uncertain than it was five years ago. This is not surprising, given that the U.S. stands at a strategic crossroads. My judgment is based on the following three arguments:     

“9·11”以后的俄美欧关系

“9·11”事件出乎意料地促成了俄美欧关系的靠近，但它们都抱有不同的目的，俄罗斯经济发展需要美欧的支持，所以，“9·11”事件正好成为俄与美欧改善关系的契机，欧洲希望借此机会，建立一个“完整”的欧洲，美国则从反恐需要出发，认为没有俄罗斯的支持，反恐战争是难以取胜的，所以，基于各自战略的考虑，俄美欧走到了一起。     

透视“9·11”事件后美国对东南亚的政策

2001年的"9·11"恐怖袭击事件不仅摧毁了美国的两栋大楼,而且也深深地震撼了美国公众脆弱的心理,但是对美国政治精英层来说,却是为美国"正义"地深深触及世界战略要地、谋求其国家最大化利益缔造了极好的借口.自冷战结束以来,美国的战略重点就一分为二--欧洲与亚洲并重,而"9·11"事件后,美国更加重视亚洲的战略意义.美国在亚洲地区的战略目标是防止亚洲安全形势的恶化,其核心是必须防止一个地区性或洲一级霸权国家的产生,其一是为了防止美国在世界重要地区被剥夺经济、政治和军事参与权;其二是防止资源过于集中某国,因为在美国看来,过于集中就会出现一个挑战美国霸权的国家.中国经过20多年的经济发展,在亚洲逐渐显示其实力,在美国看来,这会对其国家利益构成潜在的威胁,会像前苏联那样挑战美国的独尊地位.     

How to Appraise？

The world is complex and full of changes. This is the fundamen-tal characteristic of the international situation. In the five years sinceSeptember 11, the increase of the terrorist threat has impelled the U-nited States to adjust its global strategy. Unil…     

The Current State of Global Military Security

The world military security situation has entered a period of readjustment and transformation following the events of 9/11 and the ensuing war against terror. The "arc of crisis" in peripheral areas of the Eurasian continent and other regions is unsettled or tumultuous. Confronted by these new situations and challenges, military forces throughout the world have reassessed their respective strategic environment and adopted new transforming measures, which have brought about a dramatic change in military circumstances, thinking and operation in every country. More specifically, the U.S. unipolar military power has expanded, while at the same time is constrained by various internal and external factors. Worldwide military competition is becoming more complicated. Nuclear proliferation and upgrading has steadily developed, paving the way for an arms race on land, sea and in the air. Thus, the world's military situation is becoming more complex, with various factors-conflicts between unilateral and multilateral poles, cooperation and competition,readjustment and transformation, stability and instability-all interconnected.     

New Turbulence in the Middle East

Americans often say that September 11 has transformed the world, but in fact, it has primarily changed the U. S. itself. The Middle East, as well, due to a shift in U.S. policies and strategies,has gone through significant changes. This in turn has exerted substantial influence on future development of the international situation.What kind of change has taken place in the Middle East? We might find some answers from historical and realistic perspectives.     

2008年国际形势综述

2008年的国际形势,可以概括为"经济领域一个主题,政治外交两大方面,军事安全以美俄加强对抗为主要特征,冷点持续,热点升温".2007年以来美国的次贷危机引发的全球金融动荡持续蔓延,最终导致世界经济的灾难性萧条和衰退,经济危机成为2008年世界经济的主题.政治外交领域主要表现在以抗击金融危机为目的的大国经济合作和在安全领域展开政治磋商对话两大方面.     

“9·11”后大国关系变化的动因、特点与前景

“9·11”事件后，大国关系显示出差等式的力量结构与复合式多边均衡结构并存的局面，一个突出现象是大国力量消长集中在亚洲的次区域层面，中亚地区已成为美国实现其国家利益最为关键的核心战略地带。半年来，大国关系中单边评论外交甚嚣尘上，但也存在着找到一条大国间平等互利、直辖市共进的发展合作途径的可能。     

New Structures of American Foreign Strategy Since 9/11--Seeking Cooperation with Asia-Pacific Countries

When George W. Bush entered the White House in early 2001,American foreign policy was based on unilateral principles and favored disengagement from global conflict resolution. The United States declared it's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto protocol, refused to negotiate with North Korea, and, in particular, it's pursuit of a national ballstic missile defense system,in face of global opposition, further reinforced the position of its unilateralism.The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 came as a shock to the world. The United States suffered not only physical casualties, but felt a psychological blow as well. For the first time since the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States had been attacked at home. Unlike Pearl Harbor, the attacks on September 11 targeted civilians and the cornerstones of the American way of life- their financial and government centers. The terrorist attacks forced the Bush administration to re-examine it approach to foreign policy Seeking cooperation with other powers will be the new choice for American foreign strategy.     

Principal Contradictions and Changes

The September 11 terrorist attacks are the most notable events that occurred since the end of the Cold War. It is not only a logical outcome of world development post Cold War but is also an important variable influencing world development. In order to evaluate the influence of the development of the international relations in these five years, the international background after the Cold War must be taken into consideration and the characteristics and changes of the three principal contradictions described below need to be understood.     

源于地缘政治超越地缘政治——“9·11”以后欧亚大陆中部的战略态势

欧亚大陆一直被地缘政治学家认为是世界的中心，也是霸权国家和谋取霸权的国家试图施展自身控制力的地区，而欧亚大陆中路地区更是在地理上和战略上占据了举足轻重的地位。冷战结束以后，美国一直寻找机会在该地区扩大影响，而“9·11”事件的发生和随后进行的反恐战争，使美国十分顺利地实现了这一目标，可以说这是美国在地缘政治上的巨大收获，但事实上，美国之所得又远远超越了地缘政治。     

“美国霸权治下的和平”与“新帝国”论的神话

“9·11”事件在美国国内，引发了关于未来国际体系的激烈争论。争论的焦点问题之一，就是美国在遭受“9·11”事件的打击之后，能否继续维持唯一超级大国地位，在世界建立“美国霸权治下的和平”，甚至新式“美利坚帝国”。