访问埃及和利比亚纪要

4月4～17日，应埃及亚非团结委员会和利比亚利中友好协会的邀请，笔者随同中国人民对外友好协会代表团一行32人先后赴埃及和利比亚进行访问。此次访问的主题是“中国-阿拉伯对话”，以推动中阿友好关系的发展。中阿对话分……     

知识经济时代国家主权再认识

随着知识经济时代的来临,全球化趋势的迅猛发展,国家主权更是受到前所未有的巨大挑战,有关主权问题的争论也日趋激烈,由此引发的国际斗争亦日趋尖锐.本文拟就知识经济时代对国家主权造成的冲击与影响及其发展趋势作一初步分析、探讨,以便对如何坚持国家主权作出理性选择.     

Delegation of the Senior Class Alumni Association of National Administrative College of Tunisia Visits China

At the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding （CAFIU）, the delegation of the Senior Class Alumni Association of National Administrative College of Tunisia headed by Mr. Haj Said Habib, President of High Committee of Administrative and Financial Auditing, visited China from March 19 to 27.     

论新加坡人民行动党的治国理念

新加坡于1959年获得自治,1965年从马来西亚脱离而独立以来,始终由新加坡人民行动党执政。人民行动党的治国理念和风格正如其名,重视的是行动,形成了以下特点。一、早期的建党理念新加坡人民行动党成立于1954年,以李光耀为首的14名发起人中包括7名工会领袖、2名律师、2名记者和3名教师。其早期领导人之一的杜进才解释说,取名人民行动党,是因为这个政党是人民的党,至于行动,是从联合行动议会这一机构名称中取用的。新加坡人民行动党的早期纲领是反抗殖民主义、争取独立,尽管没有流血,但是它可以被看作与其他发展中国家的政党是一样的,具有革命…     

Ennahda Islamists and the Test of Government in Tunisia

After winning the 2011 elections, the Ennahda Islamist Party was the majority partner in successive coalition governments, whose poor performance – namely in the economic and security fields – disappointed the people’s high post-revolutionary expectations. Opponents accused Ennahda of incompetence, greed for power and double talk. Many of the Ennahda-led governments’ failures were due to factors beyond their control, but some did indeed depend on Ennahda’s own political weaknesses. Nevertheless, Ennahda contributed positively to the overall development of Tunisia’s political transition thanks to its moderation and pragmatism and its contribution remains paramount for the democratic consolidation of Tunisia and other political Islamic actors.     

试析我国企业在大湄公河次区域投资经营的现状、障碍及应对策略

大湄公河次区域合作是中国—东盟自由贸易区建设中的主要载体,积极参与这一合作符合我国的根本利益和战略定位。中国企业在湄公河流域的投资经营必将有助于区域合作的进一步深化,提升我国与流域5国的实质性友好关系,促进实现该地区的多国共赢,为我国现代化建设与和平崛起创造良     

Opportunities and constraints: comparing Tunisia and Egypt to the coloured revolutions

Nearly two years after removal of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak, Tunisia and Egypt are still in transition: gains made by early 2013 remain tenuous, and whether democracy takes root remains to be seen. This article identifies variables affecting these states' prospects for democratic development by drawing lessons from the post-communist coloured revolutions of the early 2000s, when democratic forces had difficulty consolidating initial gains. Based on these cases, we suggest that choices available to political actors, in particular the ability of democratic opposition forces to maintain unity and support a common transition platform, and their success in removing old regime elites, will be crucial in the post-Arab Spring environment. However, we also examine structural variables, including the nature of the ousted authoritarian regime and external leverage, which point to differences between the coloured revolutions and MENA uprisings and suggest limits to cross-regional comparison.     

The limit-experience and self-deradicalisation: the example of radical Salafi youth in Tunisia

This article gives an example of self-deradicalisation from Tunisia. It addresses the potential of radicalised individuals to de-radicalise themselves from within the Salafi doctrine with no external interventions, in comparison with the state’s religious rehabilitation approaches to tackling radicalism which not only fail but are also counterproductive. Deradicalisation could, of course, involve a more comprehensive rejection of Salafi ideology. This article suggests that an effective type of deradicalisation that is more likely to make the desired change possible is one in which there is a gradual modification of some attitudes and behaviours without abandoning the whole underpinning Salafi ideology. Referring to the personal narratives of 28 individual Tunisian Salafis, the article identifies phases of radicalisation and deradicalisation as the individual voluntarily moves from embracing radical ideology to a more critical understanding and practice reflecting on personal and interpersonal experiences of being radicalised. The research shows that the process of self-deradicalisation is reflective of Salafi youth experience of engagement with radicalism and is more likely to happen in societies that allow political expression and individual freedom that invoke individuals’ critical thinking.     

Presidential Campaigns and the Knowledge Gap

The knowledge gap hypothesis holds that when new information enters a social system via a mass media campaign, it is likely to exacerbate underlying inequalities in previously held information. Specifically, while people from all strata may learn new information as a result of a mass media campaign, those with higher levels of education are likely to learn more than those with low levels of education, and the informational gap between the two groups will expand. Though this hypothesis has received widespread attention in other disciplines, it has attracted relatively little attention in political science. Using data from the National Election Studies, this article investigates how well the knowledge gap hypothesis describes information acquisition in presidential campaigns from 1976 to 1996. The results of the analysis show that knowledge gaps do not always grow over the course of presidential campaigns and that some events, such as debates, may actually reduce the level of information inequality in the electorate.     

The Reality and My Understanding of the Current World Situation

The world, entering a new year, still faces a complex and changeable situation, with new problems and phenomena emerging one after another. It is the common desire of the world people to maintain peace and promote development and cooperation. This is the …     

State Building for Future Wars: Neoclassical Realism and the Resource-Extractive State

Neorealist theory holds that the international system compels states to adopt similar adaptive strategies—namely, balancing and emulation—or risk elimination as independent entities. Yet states do not always emulate the successful practices of the system's leading states in a timely and uniform fashion. Explaining this requires a theory that integrates systemic-level and unit-level variables: a “resource-extraction” model of the state in neoclassical realism. External vulnerability provides incentives for states to emulate the practices of the system's leading states or to counter such practices through innovation. Neoclassical realism, however, suggests that state power—the relative ability of the state to extract and mobilize resources from domestic society—shapes the types of internal balancing strategies that countries are likely to pursue. State power, in turn, is a function of the institutions of the state, as well as of nationalism and ideology. The experiences of six rising or declining great powers over the past three hundred years—China, France, Great Britain, Japan, Prussia (later Germany), and the United States—illustrate the plausibility of these hypotheses.     

Conquering versus democratizing the state: political Islamists and fourth wave democratization in Turkey and Tunisia

What do we learn from Turkey and Tunisia regarding the relationship between political Islamism and democratization? Variables identified by current research such as autonomy, “moderation”, and cooperation with secular actors can cut both ways depending on various political-institutional conditions and prerogatives. Particularly, the article argues that preoccupation with “conquering the state from within as opposed to democratizing it” has been a key priority and intervening variable undermining the democratizing potential of the main Turkish and Tunisian political Islamic actors – primarily the AKP and Ennahda. These actors have prioritized acceptance by and ownership of their respective nation states over other goals and strategies, such as revolutionary takeover or Islamization of the state and confrontations with state elites. This has led to a relative neglect of designing and building institutions, whether for Islamic or democratic transformation. Hence, while contributing to democratization at various stages, these actors have a predisposition to adopt and regenerate, reframe and at times augment the authoritarian properties of their states. Research should ask how secular and religious actors can agree on institutions of vertical and horizontal state accountability that would help to address the past and present sources of the interest of political Islamists in conquering rather than democratizing the state.     

Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability

Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral toward the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with “bad neighborhoods”: safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951–2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.     

美国新政权与六方会谈前景探析

美国大选,执政八年的共和党政府结束了其历史使命,民主党奥巴马新政府建立.根据其上台前后的言行来看,美国奥巴马新政权的基本政策主要在于重振经济、结束伊战以及坚持反恐.在外交政策上,美国新政权将改变其前任布什政府初期的单边主义武力政策,更多地采取多边或双边的协调与合作政策.在朝鲜核问题以及六方会谈机制方面,虽然美国和朝鲜同为当事国,以及中国在其中也发挥了非常重要的作用,但是美国仍然握有相当的主动权.美国新政权的基本政策同样会延续布什政府后期利用六方会谈框架与朝鲜接触和谈判的政策,甚至会采取一些更积极的政策,因为奥巴马政权要解决其面临的内外难题,需要其盟国的协助,也需要中国等国家的协助,对朝鲜这样的国家也希望能够在国际压力下促使其和平地放弃核开发.当然,半岛无核化及防止核扩散仍然是美国的根本利益,要求朝鲜放弃核开发的目标不会有丝毫的改变,甚至从原则上来说美国新政权仍然没有承诺放弃使用武力.此外,美国新政权或者还仍然存在同中国和朝鲜之间在意识形态上的对立,但是,除非发生预料不到的突发事件,美国在朝核问题上使用武力的可能性极小,在意识形态上的某些不同也不会影响奥巴马政权务实灵活的现实主义政策.总之,美国新政权的基本政策有利于朝核问题的缓和,同样也有利于六方会谈持续发挥作用.虽然美国新政权有可能同朝鲜之间有更多的双边直接接触和谈判,但是不可能脱离六方会谈的框架,即或者两国的双边谈判在六方会谈框架范围内加以实现,或者彼此都需要六方会谈框架作为自己外交回旋的余地.作为美国新政权,虽然为了能够使朝核问题有所突破而有可能更加重视双边谈判,但考虑到同中俄的战略性关系以及同其盟国日韩的伙伴关系,也不可能弃六方会谈框架而不顾.     

美国-东盟关系与奥巴马政府的政策调整

长期以来,美国没有制定对东盟的整体战略。在与东盟成员国的双边关系上,它主要重视老东盟国家,而不大重视东盟新成员国。这对美国与东盟的关系造成负面影响。为应对新形势下的新问题与挑战,奥巴马着手调整对东盟政策。     

Class forces,transition and the Arab uprisings: a comparison of Tunisia,Egypt and Syria

This article intervenes into an ongoing debate on authoritarian regimes in the Arab world following the uprisings of 2011, in particular addressing the perceived failure of those uprisings to bring about “transition” to liberal democratic models. Drawing upon the method of comparative historical sociology used in seminal analyses of democratization and dictatorship in Europe, Asia and the Americas, the article seeks to explain the varying trajectories of the Arab Uprising states in terms of several structural factors, namely the balance of class forces, the relative autonomy of the state and the geo-political context. The article provides an empirical comparison of the cases of Egypt, Tunisia and Syria as points on a continuum of outcomes following the Arab uprising. The article mounts a critique of the absence of class analysis in mainstream transition theory and hypothesises instead an important role for workers’ movements in bringing about even basic elements of liberal democracy. The empirical comparison is shown to support this hypothesis, demonstrating that in Tunisia, the state where the worker's movement was strongest a constitutional settlement has been reached while Syria, the state with the weakest and least independent workers’ movement has descended into counter-revolution and civil war: the case of Egypt lying between these two poles.     

巴西大选与卢拉政府的政策走向

在2006年巴西大选中,为争夺总统职位而进行的政治较量不仅使各党派的主张得以展示,国家的形势也因此更加明朗:政党政策趋同现象明显,劳工党左派特点并不凸显;巴西的反贫工作虽然取得了重大成果,但与此同时中产阶级的经济地位却在下降。卢拉第二任政府的政策走向是:在经济方面将致力于经济快速增长,但对其制约条件难以克服;在对外关系方面将执行既定政策,强调发展同第三世界的关系,树立其发展中国家领袖的形象;中国与巴西关系发展前景广阔。     

外翻性与国家失效:试论非洲国家失效浪潮背后的若干结构性因素

20世纪90年代以来发生在非洲大陆的国家失效浪潮与非洲国家自身的外翻性密切相关。围绕外翻国家概念,本文采取一种外部性视角,即通过分析后殖民时期非洲国家所面临的殖民国家遗产及国际环境,探讨两者如何影响后殖民时期的国家构建进程,尤其是它们在助推非洲国家失效浪潮中发挥的作用。文章的主要贡献在于深化对非洲国家失效现象的理解,同时引发学术界对非洲殖民主义、去殖民化运动以及国际社会对非洲国家干预政策的反思。