Seat share distribution of parties: Models and empirical patterns

We find that strategic sequencing and other factors sort parties roughly into two groups. Low-ranking parties lose part of their inherent support, compared to probabilistic expectations, while high-ranking parties profit from the shift. Our method is to graph the worldwide mean seat shares of parties at various ranks by size against the largest party share (Nagayama triangle format). The resulting empirical pattern looks complex, yet when we adjust a probabilistic model to account for strategic and other factors that may hurt the smaller parties, the fit becomes close. The number of parties that profit from transfers is close to the inverse of the fractional share of the largest party. The model fits best when the transfer is assumed to involve about one-half of inherent minor party support. This is a novel way to estimate the universal average strength of strategic and other factors that work against the smaller parties. The empirical worldwide mean pattern offers us a norm against which seat share distributions in individual countries or single elections can be compared.     

法治的合法性追问

社会转型时期,合法性问题异常突出,而合法性概念在中西语境中有很大的差异.法治是西方文明发展的成就,是西方文化不可分割的组成部分.中国传统社会虽然缺乏类似于西方那样的法治环境,但当代中国同样面临合法性的诉求.在依法治国、建设社会主义法治国家的现代化进程中,尤为重要的是公众对于法治的信仰和认同.     

The impact of the conflict in Gaza on antisemitism in Belgium

ABSTRACT

Taking Belgium as a case study, this article aims to assess the impact of a foreign conflict (the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Gaza Strip) on intergroup relations in Europe. It asks whether intensification of the conflict in Gaza increases the number of antisemitic incidents in Belgium, and makes use of a database of complaints to the Centrum voor gelijkheid van kansen en voor racismebestrijding (Center of Equal Opportunities and Opposition to Racism), a federal anti-racism agency, and of an analysis of political claims-making in the written press. It is often stated that the conflict between Palestine and Israel leads to increased levels of antisemitism in Europe but rarely is this based on statistical analysis. The authors of this article undertook such an analysis and concluded that complaints about antisemitism in Belgium indeed showed a statistically significant increase during the Israeli military operation Cast Lead (December 2008–January 2009). Time series and intervention analysis on data spanning a period of one-and-a-half years, however, showed that this effect was not lasting and wore off after a couple of weeks. Apart from the temporary effect of the Gaza war on domestic intergroup relations, there seemed to be no systematic and continuous link between events in the Middle East and acts of antisemitism in Belgium.     

跨域治理的概念谱系与研究模型

跨域治理是指跨域事务的利益相关者,为了实现公共目标和解决共同危机所展开的合作与管理活动。在阐释跨域治理概念谱系的基础上,讨论了跨域治理的过程、结构与整合模型,以期从文献整理分析的角度对跨域治理进行深入的理解和探讨,并展望跨域治理研究的发展方向及前景。     

Organization and Reporting of Public Financial Accounts: Insights and Policy Implications from the Singapore Budget

This paper analyses the Singapore government budget's organization and reporting structure, and draws lessons and policy implications for improving public financial management practices. The paper finds that Singapore's fiscal marksmanship record has been poor with consistent underestimates of revenue and overestimates of expenditure. Second, subtle divergences from international reporting standards limit the information available and constrain the budget's analytical usefulness in international comparisons. Third, current reporting conventions of the budget fail to provide an adequate representation of the government's fiscal position. Fourth, revised estimates of budgetary balances in line with international reporting standards show a considerable increase in the fiscal space available. The policy implications of these findings are discussed, as well as some reporting changes which can help improve the fiscal marksmanship record, increase public sector transparency and accountability, and facilitate better quality discourse among all stakeholders on public financial management.     

Between Autonomy and Interdependence: The Challenges of Shared Rule after the Scottish Referendum

Drawing on the distinction between self‐rule and shared rule in multilevel states, this article argues that shared rule has been the neglected element of the UK devolution settlement. The ability of the devolved administrations to participate in, and influence, national decision making through shared rule mechanisms is very limited. The article argues that the lack of shared rule is especially problematic in light of the increasing complexity of the Scottish devolution settlement in the wake of the Scotland Act 2012 and the Smith commission report. Smith, in particular, seems set to increase both the power of the Scottish Parliament and its dependence on UK policy decisions in the areas of tax, welfare and the economy. Creating a more robust intergovernmental system which could manage these new interdependencies will be a significant challenge, and yet, without such a system, the new settlement will be difficult to sustain.     

论社会主义法治一体建设

社会主义法治一体建设的实质,是统筹协调社会主义法治的各个领域、各个环节、各个层面,把社会主义法治视为一个整体,以一体建设的思维,全面推进社会主义法治。社会主义法治一体建设具有多方面的指向。从目标来看,法治国家、法治政府、法治社会需要一体建设。从主体来看,依法治国、依法执政、依法行政需要一体建设。从环节来看,科学立法、严格执法、公正司法、全民守法需要一体建设。此外,依法治国与以德治国也需要一体建设。社会主义法治一体建设既是社会主义的法治世界观,也是社会主义的法治方法论,可以在社会主义法治实践中得到普遍运用。     

依法治国的历史进程及其未来发展前瞻

依法治国或者法治是一个历史的概念 ,在不同的时代有着不同的实质、内涵和发展特点。法治在近代中国的发展可以说是道路坎坷 ,行程艰难 ,有些许成功和诸多失败 ,其经验教训发人深思。新中国法治发展走了一条曲折的道路 ,沉痛的教训有之 ,成功的经验更多。瞻望未来中国法治发展 ,前景广阔 ,形势复杂 ,工程艰巨 ,需要我们从多方面寻找对策 ,做出努力 ,以尽快把我国建设成为社会主义法治国家。     

The wisdom of crowds: What do citizens forecast for the 2015 British General Election?

Who do you think will win in your constituency? Most citizens correctly answer this question, and groups are even better at answering it. Combining individual forecasts results in the ‘wisdom of crowds’ explained by Condorcet's jury theorem. This paper demonstrates the accuracy of citizen forecasts in seven British General Elections between 1964 and 2010, and reports what citizens interviewed in February and March forecasted for the election in May 2015. ‘Citizen forecasting’ predicts vote shares and winners in constituency elections, and seat numbers and governments in national elections. The paper also introduces a new method for predicting vote shares from citizen forecasts. Citizen forecasts are direct, accurate, and comprehensible. Pollsters should collect them and communicate their results more often.     

Compulsory voting and the dynamics of partisan identification

Compulsory rules are known to have far‐reaching effects beyond boosting electoral participation rates. This article examines the relationship between compulsory voting and partisan attachments. A theory of attachment formation and strength is engaged that argues that compulsory voting boosts the likelihood that one will identify with a party and, in turn, the strength of party attachments among identifiers. The statistical model accounts for both the hierarchical structure of the data (individuals in elections) and the dual nature of the dependent variable (individuals report a strength of attachment only for the party with which they identify). Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, it is demonstrated that compulsory voting does indeed increase both the incidence and the strength of partisanship.     

Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting in the US, 1972–2008

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations.     

依法治国与中国现代化建设

在我们党高举邓小平理论的伟大旗帜,带领全国人民向现代化社会进军的征途中,深入学习和研究江泽民同志提出的“依法治国是社会进步,社会文明的一个重要标志,是我们建设社会主义现代化国家的必然要求”这一观点,有着重大的理论意义和实践意义。中国在跨入现代化社会,从根本上来说,就是要依法治国,扭转“人治”现象,使全社会步入法制社会。     

论法治是振兴国有企业的根本出路

国有企业实行依法治理的问题,是依法治国最重要的问题之一。探索世界现代经济发展规律,总结我国国有企业发展的历史经验教训,可以得出一个结论：法治是我国国有企业发展和振兴的根本出路。