Hyperaccountability: Economic voting in Central and Eastern Europe

Are citizens in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe able to hold politicians accountable at elections? The inheritance of communism—disengaged citizens, economic flux, and inchoate party systems—might be expected to weaken accountability. Looking at the results of 34 elections in 10 Central and Eastern European countries, this paper finds instead a phenomenon that it calls hyperaccountability. Incumbents are held accountable for economic performance—particularly for unemployment—but this accountability distinguishes not between vote losses and gains, but between large and small losses. This result is significant in several respects. The evidence for economic voting restores some faith in the ability of voters to control their representatives in new democracies. The consistency of punishment in the region, however, may mitigate some of the benefits of economic voting. If incumbents know they will lose, then they may decide to enrich themselves when in power rather than produce good policies.     

Making Institutions in Central and Eastern Europe,and the Impact of Europe

The end of communism in Central and Eastern Europe offered the region a unique opportunity for institutional redesign. Thanks to the variety of historical experiences, inherited structures, transition paths and deal sweeteners during the round-table talks, post-communist Europe initially witnessed much institutional diversity. Throughout the course of the past decade, however, there has been a notable convergence of institutional designs across the region. The process of convergence has been, in part, a response to domestic political concerns, but the demands of the European Union have also played a role. This article plots the course of institutional development in the region, outlining some of the major cases of institutional redesign and highlighting both the positive and negative impact of 'Europe' on the process.     

Communist successor parties and government survival in Central Eastern Europe

This article analyses coalition survival in eleven post‐Communist, Central and Eastern European democracies. Survival analysis demonstrates that Communist Successor Parties (CSPs) are central to understanding government dissolution processes in post‐communism. Coalitions spanning the ‘regime divide’ between CSPs and parties not affiliated with the ancien regime last longer than governments that do not. Regime divide governments also are more likely to fall during periods of positive economic performance, while other governments fall during periods of negative economic performance. The reason lies in parties’ incentives to prolong their regime divide coalition with the CSP, especially in the face of adverse conditions.     

Assessing the diversity of anti-establishment and populist politics in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

The more populism enters public debates, the more it needs close scrutiny. Central and Eastern Europe offers a useful context for exploring the diversity of parties identified as populist. Anti-establishment rhetoric provides a suitable conceptual starting point because of its pervasive role in the region’s political discourse. Using a new expert survey, this article details the relationship between anti-establishment salience and political positions, showing that anti-establishment parties occupy a full range across both economic and cultural dimensions and many occupy more centrist positions. Narrowing the focus to content analysis of anti-establishment parties’ thin ideology in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia, it is concurrently found that for many actors (including those usually labelled as populist) anti-establishment rhetoric is indeed predominant, yet not always extensively combined with other elements of populism: people-centrism and invocation of general will. The findings are important for understanding multiple varieties of anti-establishment politics also beyond the region.     

The Durability of EU Civil Service Policy in Central and Eastern Europe after Accession

This article examines the post‐accession durability of EU civil service policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs). Civil service professionalization was a condition for EU membership but the European Commission has no particular sanctions available if CEECs reverse pre‐accession reforms after gaining membership. Comparing eight CEECs that joined the EU in 2004, the article finds that post‐accession civil service developments are characterized by great diversity. The three Baltic States continued civil service reforms, while Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovenia are classified as cases of post‐accession reform reversal. The post‐accession pathway of Hungary is identified as a case of reform reorientation. The diversity in post‐accession pathways was almost exclusively the result of domestic political constellations, in particular, patterns of government alternation after accession. There were hardly any factors that could have locked in the level of professionalization that had been reached at the time of accession.     

Social security reform in Central and Eastern Europe: variations on a Latin American theme

After Chile reformed its social security system in 1981, several other Latin American countries and certain Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries implemented the Chilean model, with some variations: either a single- or multitier system, or with a period of transition to take care of those in the labor force at the time of the change. The single-tier version consists of individual accounts in pension fund management companies. Multi-tier systems retain some form of public program and add mandatory individual accounts. Most of the CEE countries did not want to incur the high transition costs associated with the Chilean model. The switch to a market economy had already strained their economies. Also, the countries' desire to adopt the European Union's Euro as their currency--a move that required a specific debt ceiling--limited the amount of additional debt they could incur. This article describes the CEE reforms and makes some comparisons with the Latin American experience. Most of the CEE countries have chosen a mixed system and have restructured the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) tier, while the Latin American countries have both single- and multi-tier systems. Some CEE countries have set up notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes for the PAYGO tier in which each insured person has a hypothetical account made up of all contributions during his or her working life. Survivors and disability programs in CEE have remained in the public tier, but in most of the Latin American programs the insured must purchase a separate insurance policy. Issues common to both regions include: Administrative costs are high and competition is keen, which has led to consolidation and mergers among the companies and a large market share controlled by a few companies. Benefits are proportionately lower for women than for men. A large, informal sector is not covered by social security. This sector is apparently much larger in Latin America than in the CEE countries. Issues that are unique to some of the CEE countries include: Individual accounts in Hungary and Poland have proved more attractive than originally anticipated. As a result, contributions to the public PAYGO system in Hungary and Poland fell short of expectations. In several countries, laws setting up the programs were enacted without all the details of providing benefits. For example, in some countries laws must now be drawn up for establishment of annuities because they do not yet exist. Setting up a coherent pension policy has been difficult in some countries because of frequent and significant changes in government. This situation has affected the progress of reform in various stages of development. In general, a definitive assessment of individual accounts in these countries will not be possible until a cohort of retirees has spent most of its career under the new system.     

On the linkage between electoral volatility and party system instability in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract.  Electoral volatility is assumed to be a precursor to, or even an indicator of, party system instability. Such an assumption has strong implications for the underlying elite–mass electoral linkage and for the prospects of party system stabilisation in young democracies. This article demonstrates that electoral volatility follows from, rather than leads to, changes in the supply of parties. Thus, the choices of elites may be more responsible for instability in the early stages of party system development than the erratic behaviour of voters.     

Institutions and the stabilization of party systems in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe

Most explanations of party system stability focus on the strength of mass-elite linkages. We highlight the role of institutions, focusing on how electoral rules and elected institutions, especially the presidency, impact elites' incentives to coordinate on a stable set of parties or to form new parties, thus affecting electoral volatility. Using Central and Eastern European elections data, we find that directly elected presidents increase volatility and that presidential power magnifies this effect. Absent a directly elected president, high district magnitude is associated with increased volatility, but district magnitude dampens the impact of an elected president on volatility; hence, our findings underscore the interactive impact of institutions on party systems. We also find evidence that bicameralism and concurrence of presidential and parliamentary elections decrease electoral volatility. Our model not only explains persistently high electoral volatility in Eastern Europe, but the extreme stability of Western European party systems.     

Review Essay International Organizations and Institutional Change in Central and Eastern Europe

Books reviewed: Frank Schimmelfennig and Ulrich Sedelmeier, eds. The Europeanization of Central and Eastern Europe.
Wade Jacoby. The Enlargement of the European Union and NATO: Ordering from the Menu in Central Europe.
James Hughes, Gwendolyn Sasse, and Claire Gordon. Europeanization and Regionalization in the EU's Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe: The Myth of Conditionality.
Reviewed by JOHN A. SCHERPEREEL     

The New Right in Central Europe I: Czechoslovakia

'The New Right', as it has come to be known, derives from at least two major intellectual sources, free market theory and social conservatism. The question how far these are compatible is frequently raised. The aim of this two-part article is to explore the impact of 'New Right' thinking in East Central Europe (specifically in Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary) in order to show that, in the conditions of 'real socialism', free market and social conservative ideas seem to arise naturally from the same root conceptions. The first part deals with Czechoslovakia—specifically with the thought of Patocka, Havel and Bratinka, and with the conservative wing of the Charter movement. It argues that, while many writers would specifically reject labels like 'conservative' or 'right-wing', the actual content of their thought is very close to that of the New Right in the western hemisphere. In particular, the call for a 'de-politiciza-tion' of society, for responsible accounting, and for a lived historical identity which will be both national and European, are indistinguishable from long-standing themes of social conservatism.     

When Does the EU Make a Difference? Conditionality and the Accession Process in Central and Eastern Europe

A number of recent studies examining the accession of states from Central and Eastern Europe into the European Union have provided a much more sophisticated understanding of when, why and how the EU shaped, directed and occasionally determined change in the region since 1989. Although acknowledging the EU was at times a motor of change, its power was limited to particular points in the accession process and varied significantly across policy areas. Even in cases such as Slovakia, often used to demonstrate the power of EU conditionality, the influence of the EU on domestic actors and policy change has been exaggerated. The EU's 'transformative power' is at its greatest when deciding to open accession negotiations, a finding which has implications for the EU's ability to enact change in Croatia and Turkey.     

The New Right in Central Europe II: Poland and Hungary

'The New Right' as it has come to be known, derives from at least two major intellectual sources, free market theory and social conservatism. The question how far these are compatible is frequently raised. The aim of this two-part article is to explore the impact of 'New Right' thinking in East Central Europe (specifically in Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary) in order to show that in the conditions of 'real Socialism', free market and social conservative ideas seem to arise naturally from the same root conceptions.
This second section deals with Poland, and examines the new 'market sociology' propagated within universities, together with the metaphysical and political ideas surrounding the Polish Nationalist movement.     

Extreme-right Parties in Eastern Europe

Abstract

From the moment the Berlin Wall came down scholars and politicians around the world expressed concern about an upsurge of extreme-right politics in Eastern Europe. Dramatic events like the Yugoslav conflict and even the so-called ‘velvet split’ of Czechoslovakia only strengthened this fear. Despite these many general warnings about the rise of extreme right parties (ERPs) in Eastern Europe very little empirical work has appeared on the subject. Mudde's article provides an analytical tool which will help to further understanding of the extreme right in the region. It presents and applies a fairly straightforward typology of ERPs in Eastern Europe based on the (ideological) character of the parties. The pre-Communist ERP locates the origin of its ideological identity in political parties and ideas of the pre-Communist period, generally harking back to national-conservative, monarchist, or indigenous or foreign fascist ideals. The character of the party might be expressed in the open espousal of pre-Communist ideas or by using the associated ‘folklore’, while in some cases there might even be continuity in personnel or organizations (often through the émigré community). With the notable exceptions of Croatia and Slovakia, pre-Communist ERPs have remained marginal in post-Communist political life. The Communist ERP looks for ideological inspiration in the Communist period and includes nationalist splits of the (former) Communist parties as well as new parties that combine a nationalist ideology with a nostalgia for Communist rule. They are mainly successful in countries where the Communist regime had a strong nationalist undercurrent and the party is still in the hands of hardliners (e.g. Romania and Russia). Post-Communist ERPs, finally, locate the source of their identities in the post-Communist period: these organizations are new and their focus is on current political issues. They harbour no feelings of nostalgia, either for the pre-Communist or the Communist period. Post-Communist ERPS have developed in most East European countries but, although some have achieved remarkable electoral successes, in general they have been only moderately successful (similar to ERPs in Western Europe).     

The Political Science of Democratic Transition in Eastern Europe

Political science is presented with an unprecedented case of democratic transition in Eastern Europe with a set of societies that are said to have been atomized by party state organs and without the other formal preconditions for transition to liberal democracy. The article surveys current writings and theories on transition to see whether they fit the East European cases. The stress in the literature on the primacy of endogenous factors, the role of entrepreneurial capitalism and the leading role of elites in facilitating a transition to democracy is of little value in the Eastern European context where exogenous factors, the absence of capitalism and the role of the masses were crucial in the downfall ofcornmunism. The prospects for the survival of democracy are discussed in the light of the way the new regimes were inaugurated.     

The re-emergence of local self-government in Central Europe

Abstract. In the current transitional period in Central Europe two issues have been commonly regarded as outstanding: the democratization of national political systems and the transformation of national economies into capitalist ones. However, in the long run, the reintroduction of local self-government may be even more decisive when it comes to the stabilization of the post-socialist societies. Firstly arguing that local self-government is a crucial link between state and civil society, the paper goes on to review the local government system during socialism. This is followed by overviews of attempts to change this system in Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. A number of hopes and fears associated with this development are highlighted, then the concluding section discusses the gains to be made for comparative political research by considering the local governments of Central Europe.