The Reasons for and the Impacts of the Egypt Revolution

After Tunisian President Ben Ali fled his country,Hosni Mubarak,Egypt’s modern ’pharaoh’and ruler for 30 years,was toppled in just 18 days by a wave of popular protest. There are diverse reasons for his fall.These include economic problems caused by high population growth,high unemployment,and high inflation;social problems caused by the excessive gap between rich and poor;unfair distribution of social wealth;and political problems caused by Mubarak clinging to the presidency and his intention to hand over power to his own son.When the Tunisian revolution occurred,these were the reasons that triggered Mubarak’s collapse. However,because Egypt is a regional power,the impacts of its own revolution far exceed those of Tunisia and will inevitably affect not just the region but also US strategy in the Middle East.     

Whither Non-Alignment? Indian Ocean Zone of Peace and New Delhi’s Selective Alignment with Great Powers during the Cold War, 1964–1979

First proposed in 1964 by the Sri Lankan prime minister, the Indian Ocean Zone of Peace [IOZP] entailed eradication of foreign military bases from the Indian Ocean region as well its denuclearisation. During the Cold War, India was one of the most vehement supporters of IOZP. If some saw India’s interests in the IOZP as another manifestation of Nehruvian idealism, others viewed it as a part of its non-aligned foreign policy. This analysis argues otherwise. India’s record on IOZP reveals a policy of selective alignment with Great Powers and its adaptation to the principles of power politics in international relations. India’s support for the presence of one or the other Great Powers in the Indian Ocean region found premise on balancing those it considered hostile to its national security interests. In public, India supported the call for IOZP as dictated by its non-aligned foreign policy; privately, New Delhi remained highly sceptical and often worked to IZOP’s detriment. Under the cloak of IOZP, India not only pursued diplomatic alignment with Great Powers but also ensured that its own regional ambitions remain unchecked. In this picture, India’s role was not only supportive of the Cold War but to the extent it could use the opportunities provided by superpower rivalry in the region to further its own ends, even determinative of the process.     

“双循环”背景下陆海新通道与澜湄合作对接

陆海新通道与澜湄合作对接是推动形成"双循环"新发展格局的一个可能突破口。作为国际机制的陆海新通道与澜湄合作匹配基础好、对接难度小。但在对接过程中,仍面临着区域互联互通不畅、合作机制重叠低效,大国博弈日趋激烈、机制成员国和东盟对中国影响力扩大有疑虑等挑战。由此,可通过加强互联互通建设、增加与其它国际机制的合作、开展在第三方市场合作等路径,推动陆海新通道与澜湄合作实现高效对接,进而推动"双循环"新发展格局在中国西南方向实现突破,使中国与中南半岛乃至东盟国家实现联动发展。     

Alignment Cooperation and Regional Security Architecture in the Indo-Pacific

ABSTRACT

Although the US-led system of formal alliances remains the main pillar of the regional security architecture in Asia, alignment cooperation – centred on the Indo-Pacific maritime conceptualisation of the region – has been on the rise. This includes informal bilateral and minilateral agreements for security collaboration between regional and extra-regional US treaty allies or close security partners, notably Japan, Australia, India, the United Kingdom and France. While the various alignments complement and address the deficiencies of the formal US-led alliances, the functional and informal characteristics of alignments allow countries to pursue security cooperation both in conjunction with the United States and independently of it. This leads to a more fluid security architecture that increasingly reflects the diversity of emerging regional ‘architects’, among which Japan is assuming a leading role, as much as the region’s array of new security challenges.     

Britain and the Collapse of Egypt's Constitutional Order, 1950-52

Britain's longstanding practice of intervening in the struggle between King Farouk, the Wafd and the constitution was one of the main causes of the demise of parliamentary politics in Egypt. Indeed, the sharp deterioration in the political situation in the winter of 1951-52, which paved the way for the Free Officers' coup on 23 July 1952, was the result of a breakdown in the Anglo-Egyptian defence negotiations. The Wafd government used the 'British question' as a distraction from its own internal shortcomings. Britain responded by pursuing a policy of toppling the Wafd and replacing it with a more amenable administration. To this end, British officials manipulated the United States into co-sponsoring the Middle East Command proposals of October 1951, aware that American backing would be required during imminent disturbances in Egypt. The subsequent Ismailia incident of January 1952 hastened the collapse of Egypt's constitutional order and also transformed British perceptions of the usefulness of the Suez base.     

朝鲜的核、导战略态势及其影响

朝鲜实施导弹发射和地下核试验,意在实现核拥有,籍以提高对美战略的筹码。朝鲜开展核战略角逐由来已久,先后展开过以守为攻;“边缘”对应;将计就计;以硬对强四个回合。角逐结果虽不乏战术上的小胜,却丧失了战略上的大胜。此番的导弹试射与地下核试验可视为第五个回合,是朝鲜核、导角逐战略“以攻为守”的转换。朝鲜执意实现核拥有纵有多种原因,却因核、导本身所拥有的“双刃剑”作用,带来于己、于他都不利的负面影响。包括:自食其言,愈加难以取信于国际社会;产生连锁反映,引发新一轮的军备竞赛;挑战核不扩散条约,难免遭到更大封杀;破坏合作气氛,延缓统一进程;置中国于尴尬境地,动摇中朝关系基础。朝鲜的“自行其事”难免遭到国际社会更加严厉的抵制。     

A Norm-Taker or a Norm-Maker？ China＇s ODA in Southeast Asia

As China expands its official development assistance (ODA) in Southeast Asia,is Chinese aid beginning to emulate international norms and practices or instead establishing its own distinct approach to development assistance? This essay argues that China’s socialization into international norms varies with the thickness of the institutional environment. In Cambodia and Laos,China’s aid program shows signs of alignment with international aid practices. At the regional level,however,China is beginning to act more like a norm-maker. Through expanding its financial support for select regional initiatives,Beijing is bolstering its ability to shape the norms and practices of regional developmental institutions. China’s rising ODA in Southeast Asia poses a potential challenge to Australia’s influence in the region,but also provides opportunities for greater diplomatic engagement and cooperation in support of regional development.     

试析奥巴马政府亚太战略

奥巴马政府调整美国亚太战略,将美国全球战略和军事战略的重点转向东亚地区。其主要特点：一是高调宣示＂重返亚洲＂;二是通过加强与盟友关系和建立加入多边组织以强化美国在亚太地区的领导地位;三是加强美国在东亚和西太平洋地区的军事存在;四是争取区域经济合作的主导权;五是在地缘战略上以南海问题形成联盟。奥巴马政府亚太战略将受到经济上力不从心、以军事力量为主要手段支撑其亚太领导地位作用有限等因素的制约。但奥巴马政府调整美国亚太战略将使东亚地区特别是南海地区形势更加复杂化。     

我国沿边地区开放开发新方略及其对广西的启示

在新一轮沿边地区开放开发浪潮中,云南、新疆、内蒙古、黑龙江等省区实施了一系列新方略加快沿边地区开放开发,取得明显成效并形成各自的特点。本文在深入分析上述省区沿边地区开放开发新方略的基础上,对完善广西沿边地区开放开发战略、提升沿边地区开放开发水平提出相关对策建议。     

After decolonization: Australia and the emergence of the non‐aligned movement in Asia, 1954–55

This article is a study of the response of the Australian government under Robert Menzies to the emergence of the Afro‐Asian movement in the mid‐1950s, especially the element of the non‐aligned nations, which culminated in the Bandung meeting of April 1955. Non‐alignment and anti‐colonialism posed direct threats to the Menzies government's plans for the defence of Southeast Asia and its foreign policy for the region. The study of the Australian response to the Bandung meeting reveals the different legacies which European imperialism left behind in Australia compared with its neighbours in south and east Asia.     

亚洲安全治理转型的历史分析与趋势展望

冷战对亚洲安全格局产生了根本影响,助推美国在亚洲安全格局中的主导地位,由此形成支离破碎、犬牙交错的地缘安全格局,迟滞地区国家探索亚洲安全治理的进程,导致多种安全观剧烈碰撞、相互影响并复杂互动,使亚洲形成两极之间的中间地带,为世界走向多极化创造了条件。从公共产品供给角度分析,亚洲安全治理主要存在美国主导的亚洲安全治理、东盟主导的地区安全合作和以中国为代表的亚洲新安全观及其实践,各种类型的安全治理在现实中并存共生,相互影响,相互作用,形成当今亚洲复杂多元的安全治理体系。中国在积极倡导新型安全理念、共同维护地区安全、探索安全治理新模式、强化大国战略互信、管控周边难点热点问题等方面,采取了一系列负责任、建设性、可预期的政策和举措,并取得了积极效果。亚洲安全架构建设依然任重道远,中国要以新安全观为指引,积极推动新安全观同地区各方安全理念和治理模式对接,推进亚洲地区安全架构建设,深化同有关国家的互信合作,推动构建亚洲命运共同体,在促进亚太安全治理和推动亚太安全新格局的构建中承担更大责任,发挥更大作用,作出更大贡献。     

From a Sub-Continental Power to an Asia-Pacific Player: India’s Changing Identity

This article aims to argue that identity is an important variable in determining the motivational disposition of the Indian state’s external security behavior. It offers a constructivist explanation to India’s increasing engagement with the Asia-Pacific region and argues that India’s deepening engagement with the region is a reflection of its desire to craft a new external identity for itself – the identity of an “Asia-Pacific player.” The desire for an “Asia-Pacific identity” is in part precipitated by Indian political elite’s perception of a crisis in India’s external identity immediately after the end of the Cold War, along with its intuitive desire for recognition within the international system. This ongoing identity shift offers to explain many visible changes in India’s post-Cold War foreign security behavior.     

日本政治文化对外交政策的影响

日本政治文化的多元性特点,表现为日本外交政策的两面性和暧昧性;对外寻求在国际体系中“各得其所,各安其分”的等级观,极力向外扩张,寻求扩大自身的国际影响力;神道教主要体现在对外交决策制定人员及外交政策的牵制作用;“耻感文化”使日本外交具有敏感性,很大程度上是对外部世界行为的被动反应,同时也使日本外交很少考虑道德问题;“集团主义”表现为在国际交往方面十分谨慎和追求与强国的结盟。     

东北地区工业旅游开发研究

东北地区是新中国建国之初重点建设的以重工业为主体的工业基地,在新中国工业发展的初期承担了历史的重任,创造了光荣的历史。这里不仅诞生了新中国工业的许多个第一,还为全国工业的发展输送了大量的技术人才、燃料和原材料,在全国人民的心目中树立起了一座座不朽的工业丰碑。东北工业规模庞大,分布集中,门类齐全,具有发展工业旅游的优良条件。通过工业旅游开发,必将对东北老工业基地的振兴和产业结构调整产生积极的推动作用。     

日本对大湄公河次区域(GMS)五国援助述评

本文拟从援助目的、机制、特点以及效果等几个方面,就日本对大湄公河次区域(GMS)五国的援助做综合评述。笔者认为,日本对GMS五国援助最大的特点在于对基础设施的投入和人力资源的培养。这两个方面的援助不仅能切实解决被援助国面临的问题,而且还能培植亲日人员。正因为如此,尽管日本的援助在受援国得到一定的好评,但也引来诸多批评。此外,对基础设施提供援助的最大收益方往往是日本,因此日本的援助具有功利性。     

中美关系与亚太地区格局

亚太地区是中美利益的交汇区,中美战略关系的发展直接影响地区格局的走向,同样,地区格局的演变也影响着中美关系。未来,在亚太地区,中美之间既存在着广泛的共同利益,有着较大的合作空间,但双方也存在着明显的战略取向的冲突。美国将追求维持其对亚太地区的主导地位,实现所谓＂美国治下的和平＂;而中国坚持主张国际政治民主化,以完全平等的方式与亚太国家发展合作关系。这种理念差异和政策取向将对亚太地区战略格局产生影响。     

普京执政后俄军事建设与改革的新动向

近年来,由于北约东扩、美国筹建国家导弹防御系统以及车臣战争的爆发,俄罗斯日益感到其国家安全遭到威胁.普京自执政以来,非常重视俄罗斯的军事建设与改革.他从本国实际出发,在继承和发展叶利钦时代改革成果的基础上,积极加强国防和军事建设,加紧推进军事改革进程.本文从7方面论述了俄罗斯军事建设与改革的新动向.可以认为,普京时代俄军事建设与改革将进入一个新的深化发展阶段.     

Israel and the Emerging Strategic Architecture in the Middle East

The Middle East has undergone significant changes in the past two decades. Most significantly, the region has experienced the dissolution of the post-1991 America-centric regional security complex as the United States reduces its forces and retools its center of effort toward the Indo-Pacific, and the creation of a new gas-centered sub-regional security complex in the Eastern Mediterranean. These changes have impacted Israel’s stature in its region and have led to significant changes in Israel’s foreign and national security policy. While in the past, Israel viewed itself as a “villa in the jungle”—not as an integral part of the region—it now sees itself as part of its surroundings and is pursuing a much more regional-centric policy. This change is clear in issue-specific alliances and collective security arrangements, as well as in long-range economic relationships. This article analyzes the regional changes and their impact in Israeli strategic thinking and policy.     

Normative power Europe and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: the EU’s peacebuilding narrative meets local narratives

ABSTRACT

This article conceives the EU’s normative power in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a narrative that projects views of the international system, the EU’s identity as a peacebuilder, and its positions on specific conflict issues. Highlighting the importance of local narratives as cultural filters, this article argues that a high degree of alignment of local narratives with key elements of the EU’s normative power narrative facilitates positive images of the EU as a normative power in peacebuilding, whilst diverging local narratives tend to give rise to more critical views. Yet, the case of Palestine also shows that strong narrative alignment with the EU may encourage high expectations, resulting in critical views about inconsistencies between the EU’s normative aspirations and its actual foreign policy conduct.     

中朝边境贸易的现状及其对边境地区社会经济的影响

中朝边境贸易具有悠久的历史,改革开放后,在中央搞活边境贸易、兴边富民的政策下,沿图们江和鸭绿江的中朝边境线地方政府积极开展边境贸易。边境贸易不仅是进出口贸易的重要组成部分,也是边境地区发展外向型经济的主要途径,对稳定边境地区的安全也具有积极的影响。朝鲜经济的恢复,将需要大量的原油、焦碳、机械、原材料以及粮食、轻工业品。积极开拓朝鲜市场对边境地区发展外向型经济以及促进图们江地区跨国经济区建设具有重要的战略意义。