美国调整阿巴新战略

奥巴马在2009年3月推出"阿巴新战略"9个月之后又提出"阿巴新战略"的调整方案,为美国摆脱阿富汗困境和"体面撤军"创造条件。其内容包括:推进区域合作以实现阿富汗的安全与稳定;强化阿自身政权建设和扶植亲美部落首领;确保美国在阿的永久存在等。新战略调整能否成功,事关美国反恐大业的成败和软硬实力的消长,其结果将对整个国际形势产生重要影响。     

Understanding the Taliban and Insurgency in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is in danger of capsizing in a perfect storm of insurgency that mimics operations and tactics witnessed in Iraq. This article assesses this insurgency and the re-emergent Taliban. The common view of the Taliban as simply a radical Afghan Islamist movement is overly simple, for that organization has been able to build on tribal kinship networks and a charismatic mullah phenomenon to mobilize a critical and dynamic rural base of support. This support, buttressed by Talib reinforcements from Pakistan's border areas, is enough to frustrate the U.S.-led Coalition's counterinsurgency strategy. At the operational level, the Taliban is fighting a classic “war of the flea,” while the Coalition continues to fight the war largely according to the Taliban “game plan.” This is resulting in its losing the war in Afghanistan one Pashtun village at a time.     

Indian and Chinese foreign policy imperatives and strategies vis-à-vis Afghanistan

In this article, the authors conduct a comparative review of the strategic imperatives driving Sino-Indian policy on Afghanistan in the post-2014 scenario. The article argues that divergent strategic imperatives make cooperation difficult and/or unlikely. This analysis is based on a broader consideration of both contemporary history and geopolitical dynamics shaping the foreign policy considerations of these two countries, and an assessment of the impact of ongoing bi-lateral and regional aspirations. The authors begin by highlighting the salient dynamics that have historically characterized and driven Indian and Chinese foreign policy in general and on Afghanistan. They find that Afghanistan, although not a primary focus of either state’s foreign or security policy, historically, is increasing in importance for both; India and China compete on a range of economic and security issues.     

Sixty years of Sino-Afghan relations

Afghanistan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) established diplomatic relations in 1955. Since that time, the changing relationship of China with Afghanistan has mirrored those of the PRC with other nation states. What began as an attempt by the PRC to establish international legitimacy for its new government and to offer third-world nations a socialist-communist path other than following the Soviet Union turned into a quest for natural resources. Using a variety of primary sources, including recently declassified intelligence files, secondary sources and open source material, this article traces the development of this changing relationship, demonstrating how it has complemented or complicated the United States' relationship with Afghanistan. It also shows how changing world events have affected the Chinese perception of the role Afghanistan can play in its foreign policy. The article concludes with a presentation of what role China is playing and can play in Afghanistan today, ending with a discussion of the dangers that the PRC faces in its current relations with Afghanistan, especially with regard to its ever-changing relationship with the United States.     

Grand Strategy of ‘Restrainment’

With the end of the Cold War, the subsequent global war on terror, the global economic recession, and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, one would think that the United States would have formulated a grand strategy for dealing with these problems. This, however, is not the case. This article advances a grand strategy of “restrainment,” as a guiding concept for our approach to international politics. It builds from the principle that U.S. policy must seek to restrain—individually and collectively—those forces, ideas, and movements in international politics that create instability, crises, and war.     

美国调整南亚反恐战略：观察与预测

美国在阿富汗的反恐战争至今已逾7年，南亚地区的反恐局势依然十分严峻。奥巴马2009年1月就任新一届美国总统后，宣布了一系列针对阿富汗和巴基斯坦的新政策举措，在地区反恐的框架内与阿富汗、巴基斯坦和印度等国开展积极外交互动，美国针对南亚地区的反恐战略调整初现端倪。新政策包括在决策层面注重阿富汗与巴基嘶坦的整体关联，强调军事和民政努力齐头并进，关切印巴和平进程并试图扩大介入等。这些措施表明奥巴马政府力图摆脱目前的困境，推动反恐战争，但其实际效果、局限性和不确定因素仍值得继续观察。     

Obama and Afghanistan: a constructivist approach to shifting policy narrative and practices

Abstract

This article adopts a constructivist approach to explain how and why the Obama administration shifted its policy narrative and practices towards Afghanistan from 2011 onwards. It recognizes that the ‘Global War on Terror’ narrative helped pave the way for a set of institutionalized militarized practices and collectively held beliefs that have structured the post-9/11 world. At the same time, the article argues that the Obama administration’s ‘selling’ of its Afghan policy provided the space for an evolving approach. This policy narrative involved the ‘existential threat’ of transnational militant actors operating out of an Afghanistan–Pakistan ungoverned space being downgraded to a ‘containable’ one. Three key factors prompted this change: the administration’s discursive decoupling of the Taliban and al-Qaeda; the changing perception that the threat posed by ‘al-Qaeda and its affiliates’ was a decentralized one; and the United States’ changed conception of Afghanistan as a ‘safe haven’ for transnational terrorists.     

阿富汗问题与中国的关联

阿富汗问题不仅指阿富汗自身所面临的一系列问题,还包括这一系列问题的地区性、世界性影响。阿富汗问题不仅仅关乎中阿关系、中美关系,更关系到中国的地区战略、外交战略、安全战略等。因此,对阿政策的调整必须慎之又慎。中国应该坚持已有的做法,即在参与面上有所保留,有所为,有所不为。在当前形势下,中国应继续坚持在阿安全重建问题上有限参与,但应扩大在阿政治、经济、文化、教育重建等方面的参与。     

The evolution of the European Union’s failed approach to Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

This article provides a genealogical account of European actorness in Afghanistan. It argues that European agreement towards facilitating modernisation and development in Afghanistan was initiated with aid and trade, evolving into humanitarianism in the 1990s, and reconstruction and democratisation in the 2000s. The European Union has had a positive impact on Afghanistan, focusing on humanitarianism, but its multilateral and programme level approach to reconstruction and democratisation has failed to meet the EU’s stated objectives. By promoting the flawed “Bonn Model”, the EU is proportionally culpable for failed international attempts to reconstruct Afghanistan; even though the United States has been the primary international actor. Drawing a series of broader lessons, such as tensions between Atlantic solidarity and European integration, and the limitations of the European crisis management, the article demonstrates how European policy has been shaped by crises inside Afghanistan and the larger geopolitical crises these have generated. These have contemporary importance as history suggests that as the US withdraws its commitment to Afghanistan, the EU will have a very significant role in attempting to fill a humanitarian vacuum.     

Insurgents,accidental guerrillas and valley-ism: an oral history of oppositional US soldiers' attitudes toward the enemy in Afghanistan

In recent years Western policy towards Afghanistan has been marked by inconsistencies and errors. This article explores United States (US) soldiers' perceptions of the enemy in Afghanistan based on oral history interviews with dissenting combat soldiers who served in the Afghan theatre. By foregrounding soldiers' attitudes towards the enemy, this study includes marginalized voices, often overlooked, that challenge prevailing misconceptions. General David Petraeus, the former commander of US forces in Afghanistan, has argued that significant battlefield decisions are not reserved for generals alone. Petraeus' counterinsurgency programme promotes ‘strategic corporals’ whose decisions hold important consequences. If strategic corporals are involved in military decision-making, it follows that their interpretation of the conflict may also hold strategic implications for the researcher. Soldiers' views of war are not the final, authoritative verdict. However, this article suggests that these strategic corporals should be included in a complex matrix of interpretation to broaden US understanding of the enemy.     

试析巴基斯坦参与阿富汗重建

自美国发动阿富汗战争以来,阿国内局势一直动荡不安,这给巴基斯坦的经济、政治、外交战略及安全局势都造成了严重影响。为尽快恢复阿富汗的和平与稳定,巴通过提供经济援助、增强战略互信以及加强反恐合作等方式积极参与阿富汗重建,并取得一定成效。同时,巴积极参与阿富汗重建对巴自身以及巴阿、巴美及巴印关系都产生了影响。此外,由于巴国内经济形势恶化、安全局势欠佳等因素,巴积极参与阿富汗重建也面临诸多困难和挑战。     

On the Trail of the ‘Lions of Islam’: Foreign Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1980-2010

This article provides a review of the history of jihadi foreign fighters in Afghanistan over the last 30 years. It details the post-9/11 period and the invasion of Afghanistan by U.S. forces, focusing on the ethnic origin of the foreign fighters and how different groups engaged in different aspects of the conflict. Additionally, the piece explains that while the foreign fighters who came to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan included, among others, Uzbekistanis (not Afghan Uzbeks), Turks, and Arabs, there was also a significant force of Pakistanis—of both Pashtun and Punjabi origins—that joined, bolstering the Taliban army.     

British and American military operations in the Battle of Helmand, 2006–2011

In summer 2006, elements of the British Army were deployed to Helmand province in southern Afghanistan. The US Army followed with a surge in 2009 and 2010. The British and American military forces attempted to construct a counterinsurgency (COIN) approach to win the war in Helmand from 2006 until 2011, but the operational approach implemented was most often that of conventional warfighting. The inability to successfully implement COIN owed not to a lack of will, but rather to short tours, mission command, a lack of available resources, the particular situation on the ground in Helmand and the propensity of the Taliban to launch major conventional operations during much of the period in question.     

Afghanistan: the politics of post-war reconstruction

Post-war reconstruction has become a dominant feature of Western political discourse and a key policy concern since the 1990s. While there is an acute need for informed debate between political scientists and practitioners engaged in such activity, this requirement is often ignored. From a practical perspective, most post-war reconstruction initiatives have, in recent years, been mired by lack of donor support or by no reduction in the dangers that were present prior to the outbreak of violence. Using Afghanistan as a case study, this article seeks primarily to advance policy thinking on what has become known in the literature as ‘state building’. Based on a theoretical and empirical examination, it attempts to assess the political future of Afghanistan following international involvement in the country over the past year. Most importantly, it highlights that the reconstruction of Afghanistan is dependent on developing a new political culture and a new way of thinking among the citizenry that ranks compromise over con?ict. More generally, the paper concludes that contemporary approaches to post-war reconstruction have been depressingly limited in their results.     

美国奥巴马政府的南亚政策初探

随着奥巴马大选胜出和入主白宫,美国的南亚政策和美印关系的发展走向再次引起国际社会的关注。普遍关心的问题包括美国南亚政策的调整、奥巴马政府扩大在阿富汗和巴基斯坦的反恐行动、美印战略关系前景、美国对印巴关系的影响,以及美国对印美民用核合作、克什米尔争端的具体政策选择。本文试探讨奥巴马政府的南亚政策、反恐战略、美印关系走向及可能对该地区局势产生的外交与安全效应。     

Interdependent Preferences, Militarism, and Child Gender

Selection effects make it difficult to determine whether concern for other people genuinely affects individuals' policy preferences. Child gender provides a conveniently exogenous means of exploring the issue, especially in contexts such as military policy where girls and boys face different risks; in many countries male children are disproportionately likely to become soldiers and thus bear the costs of militarism. This creates divergent effects: those in households with girls generally prefer more hawkish foreign policies than do members of households with boys. Data from the 2004 American National Election Study confirm these intuitions, both in general statements of policy preference and in evaluating the net costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts.     

Development and political legitimacy: the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan

Development's policies are based on a set of premises: state‐building, state of law, democratisation, accountability and privatisation. The idea is that the Western concept of democracy could be implemented through the development of a ‘civil society’ of the building from scratch of new institutions. Such a model works when there is political will from the local political authorities and the society to adopt such a model (as was the case in Poland and Hungary after the collapse of the Soviet Union). But in any case a policy of development should be based on political legitimacy. In Iraq, as well as Afghanistan, political legitimacy means abiding with nationalism, Islam and local political culture (often based on clan‐ism and networks). In Iraq, the US policy has deliberately ignored the issue of legitimacy. In Afghanistan, because the US intervention was not part of a great design, it relied more on local constraints and thus has been more effective, or at least, less disruptive. The issue is not opposing a Western model of democracy to a national authoritarian political culture, but to root democracy into the local political culture. If not the policy of strengthening civil society, through political and military pressure as well as NGO's, has a disruptive effect and may lead to a conservative, nationalist and religious backlash.     

Women in Afghanistan: Passive victims of the borga or active social participants?

This paper, based on field research in Kabul in February 2002, begins by discussing how women experience war and violent conflict differently from men, in particular by defining different types of violence against women in Afghanistan. Second, by identifying individual Afghan women, as well as women's networks and organisations, I analyse their different coping strategies and the ways in which networking and different forms of group solidarity became mechanisms for women's empowerment. Third, I demonstrate how, throughout Taliban rule, many women risked their lives by turning their homes into underground networks of schools for girls and young women. I argue that, as social actors, they created cohesion and solidarity in their communities. Their secret organisations have already laid the foundation for the building of social capital, which is crucial for the process of reconstruction in Afghanistan. In the final section, I propose that women in Afghanistan, as social actors, are optimistic and willing to participate in the process of reconstruction. As a researcher, I intend to articulate their voice, views, and demands, which I hope will be taken into consideration by policy makers and aid workers.     

Preliminary results from voices of the Mada'in: a tribal history and study of one of Baghdad's six rural districts

From July to October 2008, Human Terrain Team Iraq 6 (HTT IZ6) undertook an oral tribal study and social history project in Mada'in Qada, Iraq. During that four-month period IZ6 formally interviewed over forty tribal leaders. At the same time team members participated in humanitarian assistance operations with internally displaced persons (IDPs), as well as regular citizens of the region. In both the formal, elite-level interviews and the participant observations, four major themes became apparent: (1) The tribal law, written or oral, is often generally perceived as codes, covenants, and/or constitutions. (2) The tribal legal system and the tribal courts are an adversarial and remedial/restorative justice mediation system. (3) The Government of Iraq (GOI) is perceived as being under foreign influence. Members of the GOI are commonly referred to as Iranian agents, Iranians, Zoroastrians and/or fire worshippers (Mithraites) by both Sunnis and Shi'a alike. And (4) the dispute between Sunni and Shi'a is predominantly about resources, not religion. The purpose of this article is to describe the task order for the project, describe the oral history project itself, discuss the research challenges that arose in a semi-permissive environment, present the preliminary findings and tie them into the reality of the ongoing Counterinsurgency Operations in Iraq.     

Numerous,Capable, and Well-Funded Rebels: Insurgent Military Effectiveness and Deadly Attacks in Afghanistan

Why do some of Afghanistan's provinces experience more deadly attacks on counterinsurgents than others? We argue that provinces with more militarily effective insurgents will be deadlier for the forces of the counterinsurgency. We posit that insurgent military effectiveness is an interactive function of the rebel group's size, the quality of its recruits, and the group's operational budget. More militarily effective insurgents should, in turn, produce more deadly violence against Coalition forces. We model this relationship at the provincial level in Afghanistan using negative binomial regressions. Ultimately, we find that in provinces where the insurgency is more militarily effective, deadly attacks against counterinsurgent forces occur more often. Based on this finding, we conclude with directions for future research and policy recommendations for both the current operations in Afghanistan and for future counterinsurgency campaigns.