Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability

Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral toward the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with “bad neighborhoods”: safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951–2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.     

Islamism in the Diaspora: Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon

In recent years there has been increasing academic interestin Islamism in the Middle East, not least in Palestinian Islamismchampioned by groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, whichare waging a war of attrition against the Israeli occupationof the West Bank and Gaza. There has been less concern withIslamism among the Palestinian refugees dispersed in MiddleEastern countries such as Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. The articleoutlines the sources of Islamism (‘political Islam’)among Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The rise of Islamismis a complex mix of contingent factors that is fuelled by socialand political deprivation and shaped by divergent views on Palestiniannationalism (secular vs. Islamist), the Islamist revival inLebanon and ‘strategic localization’ that turnsrefugee camps into battlefields between Palestinian factions.The Islamist groups cater for narrowly defined segments of therefugee population and have been unable to attract wider support.Instead, they cater for minor, camp-based constituencies whichcompete with secular groups for internal control of the campsand, by implication, of the Palestinian nationalist cause itself.     

政治参与和政治稳定——关于当前拉美国家政局经常出现局部动荡的一种解释

拉美国家政治参与的主体主要有政党、社会运动、土著人组织、天主教会、工会、军队、国际组织和个人等。首先,上述任何参与既可能采取体制内或合法的参与形式,又有可能采取体制外的或非法的参与形式,这主要取决于一国和地区内各主体时代背景、政治经济条件以及参与主体的力量结构的不同。其次,上述任何主体体制外的政治参与都有可能影响到该国或地区的政治稳定。第三,拉美国家政局局部动荡的制度方面的原因,就是这些国家议会民主制度已经确立,但由于人民教育水平和政治觉悟的提高,文化、分配和政治上的需求迅速增加,与当前拉美的政治参与机制,如政党制度、三权分立等制度不健全之间产生矛盾,人民的愿望难以伸张,需求难以得到满足,对政府的信任度降低,转而采取非法参与形式,引发政治局部动荡。     

浅谈现代化进程中发展中国家政府职能的定位——以拉丁美洲国家为例

拉美国家和其他发展中国家在现代化进程中 ,其政府职能只能强化而不能弱化。现代化进程是个庞大而复杂的系统工程 ,只靠市场经济规律而没有政府干预 ,势必造成无序和失控。因此 ,政府通过经济杠杆、法律约束和必要的行政干预对现代化进程中发生的一些矛盾和冲突进行调解十分必要。在对外关系方面 ,发展中国家的政府职能也只能强化而不能弱化。要坚持“主权平等”的原则 ,反对西方发达国家借口“全球治理”干涉别国内政。总之 ,发展中国家只有制定出符合本国国情和适应新形势的发展战略 ,并从体制、制度、政策和机制等层面上强化政府的职能 ,才能使现代化进程沿着正确的方向不断向前发展。     

Confronting Islamist Insurgencies in Africa: The Case of the Islamic State in Mozambique

The proliferation of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies across Africa challenges the United States’ counterterrorism approach. From its inception, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique was driven by local and foreign dynamics, which have been complicated by additional external intervention in the conflict. Using the Cabo Delgado insurgency, we demonstrate how efforts to address its global dimensions, such as the group's affiliation with the Islamic State, can work against attempts to mitigate its local drivers. We conclude with recommendations for a more effective U.S. response that takes both the local and global dynamics into account. This article builds on our February 2021 report “Combating the Islamic State's Spread in Africa: Assessment and Recommendations for Mozambique,” published by the American Enterprise Institute.     

Reintegration and the relevance of social relations: the case of Lebanon

The DDR process that took place in Lebanon after the internal wars (1975–89), based on the Ta'if Accord (1989), was not co-ordinated by any international organisation. This paper assesses the reintegration of a number of combatants of one of the militias, the Lebanese Forces, placing particular emphasis on the context in which it unfolded. A programme of reintegration into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) was proposed to the ex-combatants, but because of the high number on one side and because of the situation within the LAF itself (a pluri-religious organisation under reorganisation) this programme had little effect on the process. Instead the majority of the ex-combatants came to rely on their family and network established within the militia for their social and economic reintegration. This study finds that there has been little rupture between life as combatants and life as civilians. Three contextual factors were particularly important: the small size of the country, the rhythm of the war where periods of combat alternated with periods of calm, and the close contact combatants managed to keep with their family, work, schools and universities. A key lesson for DDR processes more generally stems from the study: DDR initiatives are likely to be most effective when they work alongside and augment indigenous positive social processes contributing to reintegration.     

阿卜杜·拉赫曼、伊斯兰教与阿富汗国家的形成

阿卜杜·拉赫曼是阿富汗近代史上最有远见卓识的领袖人物之一,在长达21年中,他不仅以军事手段削平了地方割据势力,建立起了一套比较完整的中央与地方管理体系,尤为重要的是,他试图以伊斯兰教构建政治合法性和国家认同,以超越因地域、民族、部落等因素造成的分裂。正是在阿卜杜·拉赫曼统治时期,阿富汗作为现代民族国家才渐具雏形。     

Reconstructing post-war Lebanon: A challenge to the liberal peace?

This piece uses the example of reconstruction following the July–August 2006 Israeli–Hezbollah war in Lebanon to reflect on the existence of alternatives to the liberal peace. The term ‘liberal peace’ is used as shorthand for internationally-sponsored peace-support and reconstruction interventions and it is marked by its increasingly formulaic, top–down and ethnocentric nature. Two significant non-western actors were apparent in Lebanon's post-war reconstruction: the Gulf States and Jihad Al Bina (the reconstruction wing of Hezbollah). Using fieldwork, this article examines the extent to which the reconstruction activities of these non-western actors constitute an alternative to the liberal peace. It finds that these activities do not have the critical mass or ambition to form a fully-fledged alternative but argues that they reveal serious limitations in the liberal peace approach to post-war reconstruction.     

Assessing State Preferences and Explaining Institutional Choice: The Case of Intra–German Trade

A solid knowledge about states' interests in the case under investigation is required to reinforce the neoinstitutionalist hypothesis that international institutions are built to reap joint gains in issue areas in which uncoordinated activities may lead to a suboptimal outcome. However, most neoinstitutionalists who apply game theory to international politics seem to assume that, regardless of the outcome to be explained, no case–specific empirical assessment of actors' interests is needed to understand regime formation. This article aims to empirically assess the constellation of state interests on the basis of which the intra–German trade regime came into existence. Furthermore, solution concepts are used merely as indicators for describing a situation, they are not taken as unqualified predictions of what will happen. This application of game theory still proves useful. By demonstrating that the intra–German trade regime emerged from a constellation of interests resembling a prisoner's dilemma, the neorealist argument that international institutions are unable to regulate important issues in a really competitive relationship is challenged. At the same time, the article points to at least one necessary addition to the neoinstitutionalist argument, as the explanation of given international institutions requires a two–step procedure: first, the explanation of state interests, and second, the explanation of behavior brought to light on the basis of these interests.     

试论拉多加城在古罗斯国家形成前后的地位与作用

中世纪早期拉多加城始建之初，只是斯堪的纳维亚人的海外商站，发挥着“斯堪的纳维亚人东进桥头堡”作用。后来，商人和手工业者逐渐在这里聚集，推动了拉多加城地方经济的发展。与此同时，拉多加城罗斯化的进程也进一步加强。一些学者曾将此时的拉多加城喻为“留里克王朝的基础”。随着时间的推移，拉多加城逐渐成为古罗斯“西北部贸易前哨和防御堡垒”。     

Globalization,the State,and India's Halting March to Common Market: The Political Economy of Tax Reform Under Federalism

As a social phenomenon, globalization has been the target of much criticism. One particular line of attack holds that it will lead to the segmentation and disintegration of the national economy. However, an examination of the long process of reform of the indirect tax system in India underlines, paradoxically, the significant role of globalization precisely in fostering domestic economic integration in the form of a common market, which would overcome the economic segmentation existing prior to globalization. Interestingly, such tax reform has, in considerable part, been driven by the need to meet globalization's challenge that India's economy be efficient and internationally competitive. At the same time, one should not underestimate the critically important role of the state as an institutional variable—which critics tend often to ignore—in carrying through the goal of establishing a common market, presently a work still in progress.     

The Social Construction of Identity: Israeli Foreign Policy and the 2006 War in Lebanon

This article uses a constructivist analysis to consider the social construction of identity and the Israeli military action in Lebanon in 2006. Strands of meaning, constructive of a collective sense of self, emerged out of historical continuities, interacted and were made meaningful in relation to each other around the issue of the Hezbollah threat in 2006. They framed, contextualised and constituted that policy issue to form a situated and contingent identity of the possible, within which the policy decisions that produced the second Lebanon War were taken. Whilst a body of work has resulted from engagement with this conflict, and a well established literature discusses Israeli identity, little has been done to bring the two together and consider in detail the role of identity in constructing the 2006 war as possible and desirable for Israel. This is the focus and contribution of this article. Domestically, the institutional context of the 2006 Knesset elections revealed a national identity in which the multi-faceted vulnerability identity and Fighting Jew identity were salient, interacting strands. The narratives of ordeal, existential threat, and self-reliance acted to increase the power of the Fighting Jew identity, predicated on a faith in military solutions to threats. These ideas came up against and were rearticulated in the context of the global “War on Terror” to make the war in 2006 both possible and desirable.     

The unlikely terrorist: women and Islamic resistance in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories

Islamic resistance groups in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories have been accused of using terrorist tactics to achieve their aims. Although some critics suggest that such groups may also have hijacked the democratic agenda in ways that disadvantage women, their supporters claim that they are promoting a model of modernity that is empowering women. This article examines the reasons why some Lebanese Shi'i and Palestinian women support the resistance against Israeli invasion and occupation that is justified in terms of religion. Far from seeing the actions of Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories as acts of terrorism, many women welcome the resistance as it brings dignity and meaning to their lives and enhances feelings of national identification.     

The Growing Role of States in U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case of the State Partnership Program

States can and do play an important role in contemporary U.S. foreign policy. This article will discuss the growing role of states through an investigation of the State Partnership Program (SSP). The SSP pairs state National Guards with the militaries of other countries through U.S. military engagement programs. The state-level National Guard then becomes the primary site for implementing U.S. military engagement programs. Both a federalism and decision-making perspective, however, are unable to recognize this role. The decision-making bias of foreign policy analysis affords states a limited international role and minimal influence in shaping the policies of the government toward other countries. An implementation perspective, however, reveals a growing role of states carrying out U.S. foreign policy, including the "high politics" of national security issues. States give decisions meaning through the practice of policy implementation. A detailed case study of the Maryland–Estonia partnership illustrates how an implementation perspective can recognize a growing role of states in shaping U.S. foreign policy.     

有限战争理论与以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动

有限战争在战略目标、战略手段、打击对象和打击范围的选择方面受主观克制和客观限制的双重影响。有限战争是安全战略的重要选项,其能否上升为决策者的首选,主要取决于以下5个因素,即外来威胁的强度、国内支持度、盟友支持度、国际舆论支持度和敌我力量对比悬殊程度。这些因素同样是2006年7月起以色列对黎巴嫩真主党游击队发动有限战争的内在逻辑。