地铁站事故疏散时间计算方法对比分析

为提高我国地铁站事故疏散时间计算结果的准确性和可信度,本文通过对我国与日本事故疏散时间计算的方法、结果可信度的对比,分析事故疏散时间计算方法的差异.结果表明:我国地铁站事故疏散时间的计算方法存在诸多不合理之处,日本事故疏散时间相对之下能更好地反映换乘地铁站的站体设计、疏散设计的要求,建议在今后的换乘地铁站的疏散计算中参考日本规范中的计算方法.     

Monte-Carlo模拟在确定可用安全疏散时间中的应用

可用安全疏散时间(ASET)是衡量公共场所安全性能的重要指标,本文采用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对建筑物可用安全疏散时间进行确定。研究采用在M语言编程,在Matlab平台上进行蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明,蒙特卡罗模拟技术是描述同时具有参数不确定性和模型不确定性的复杂问题的有力工具。     

高校宿舍楼延迟疏散法的模拟研究

疏散拥堵是火灾中导致人员伤亡的重要因素,因此合理有效地解决疏散过程中的拥堵问题对于提高疏散效率,减少人员伤亡具有现实意义.针对此问题引入延迟疏散法,运用buildingEXODUS软件进行模拟研究,重点讨论不同反应时间间隔对疏散时间的影响.通过某高校宿舍楼的模拟研究发现,反应时间间隔为5s时,人群的疏散时间最短,疏散效率最高.当无反应时间间隔时,疏散时间增长20s;随着反应时间间隔增长,疏散时间也不断增长.该结果对疏散预案的制定和优化有一定的借鉴意义.     

基于GIS的都市应急疏散系统

我国是灾害频发的国家之一。自然灾害如近日发生的印度洋大海啸、工业事故以及潜在的恐怖袭击等严重威胁都市人民的生命安全。一旦发生重大灾害性事件，往往需要在短时间内安全地进行大规模紧急疏散高密集人群。实施科学的应急救灾策略，是减少灾害（事故）后果严重性的重要措施之一。本文提出了基于时变动态流的网络优化模型，该模型以最短疏散时间为目标函数，同时对疏散路径、疏散目的地以及疏散开始时间进行优化。并以此优化模型为基础，初步建立了基于GIS的大规模应急疏散系统。该系统可以模拟优化各种灾害条件下最优应急疏散策略，为政府有关部门在城市建设和城市防灾规划中的决策提供科学依据。该系统可用于城市应急规划设计和实时应急管理指挥。     

不可预警突发事件下城市应急交通需求预测及分配

以"四阶段法"的方式研究对城市道路不造成破坏的不可预警突发公共事件应急交通疏散。在对城市道路不造成破坏的不可预警突发公共事件情况下,对城市内突发事件应急交通的人员疏散及救援人员和物资进入问题进行了分析。按类型分析法引入当量车辆的概念对突发事件下城市的交通需求进行预测,在此基础上得出应急交通分配矩阵的求解方程,并对应急疏散所需车辆及往返次数进行了预测,最后,结合路网情况和时间因素改进了应急交通需求量的加载模型。     

大型公用建筑火灾时人员应急疏散评价模型研究

应急疏散措施的优劣是评价大型公用建筑安全水平高低的重要标准之一。本文通过分析影响大型公用建筑应急疏散措施有效性的主要因素,参照相关法规及大型公用建筑应急疏散时各指标因素的层次,建立了大型公用建筑应急疏散评价模型。将该模型应用到某高校图书馆的应急疏散评价过程中,验证了模型的准确性,为建筑物火灾人员应急安全疏散提供了切实可行的参考依据。     

建筑物性能化设计中人群安全疏散问题探讨

本文首先分析了建筑物发生火灾时影响人群安全疏散的因素,包括火场中人员状况对安全疏散的影响、建筑物结构对人群安全疏散的影响以及人群安全疏散的基本条件等。在此基础上,提出了满足人群安全疏散需要的建筑物性能化设计方案的基本框架。     

建筑物火灾疏散中人的行为可靠性评价

为尽可能减少建筑物火灾造成的人员伤亡,并体现“以人为本”的发展观,笔者对建筑物火灾疏散中人的行为可靠性进行分析评价.本文建立了建筑物火灾疏散中人的行为可靠性评价的指标体系,应用模糊综合评价的方法建立了建筑物火灾疏散中人的行为可靠性的模型,并讨论了权值的确定方法,并结合某大学图书馆的实例讨论了该方法的应用.     

基于Anylogic地下空间火灾人员疏散仿真模拟

Anylogic是目前提供专业虚拟原型环境,包含离散、连续、和混合行为模拟,同时又是少数提供了人员行为库的先进仿真模拟平台之一,它为研究地下空间火灾人员疏散提供了一个良好的环境.本文结合该软件的特点系统地分析了发生地下火灾时影响人员安全疏散各种的因素,对人流密度、人流速度、辐射热、对流热、毒性计算进行了讨论;论文介绍了利用Anylogic进行地下火灾仿真建模的方法,给出了一个地铁车站火灾环境进行了疏散模型的设计和模拟仿真实例,对模拟的效果进行了评述,指出后继工作的研究方向.     

某地下商业区消防安全问题的数值模拟

地下商业区是一类典型的建筑形式,同时具有地上商业建筑和地下建筑的特点,一旦发生火灾,极易造成重大损失,其消防安全性甚为重要.本文选取某典型地下商业区,采用数值模拟的方法对其进行消防性能化验证.5个火灾场景的计算结果表明,防火分区L的疏散宽度不足会导致人员疏散不及时,建议采用镂空吊顶提高该分区的集烟能力,增加可用疏散时间,确保发生火灾时所有人员能够及时安全疏散.     

火灾逃生中的安全问题

本文通过简单描述火灾场合中人员可能出现的各种逃生行为，以对火灾的调研结果为依据分析比较了这些行为方式对安全逃生的影响。     

Theory, Operationalization, Identification, and the Interpretation of Different Differences in Time Series Models

The principals in this exchange, David Cantor, David Greenberg, and Kenneth Land, have each contributed outstanding methodological and substantive scholarship to criminology and to the social sciences more generally. In exchanges such as this we are engaged in a collective process of refining and advancing our knowledge in the areas of both criminology and statistical methods. The issues raised by Greenberg provide an opportunity to reflect on time series modeling and to revisit some issues concerning operationalization and model specification. I do not expect any of us to agree fully on these issues, but we may be able to shed some light on these issues, and collectively this may help the larger community of criminologists and social scientists.     

A model for using time out as an intervention technique with families

Using time out to interrupt escalating conflict is an important first step in treating couples and families where physical and emotional abuse is present. Since a time out failure can jeopardize further treatment, developing effective methods for using time out is a therapeutic priority. By interpreting the family's failed attempts as skill deficits, their efforts can be reframed to facilitate their acceptance of new time out methods. These methods are integrated into a model which outlines six hierarchical levels of supplemental control needed to inhibit destructive behavior. The model provides guidelines and establishes incentives for developing a time out strategy appropriate to the family's current level of control. It is designed to guide therapists in helping families strengthen their skills and choose an alternative time out strategy when an initial method fails.     

论诉讼时效期间的起算——以未定期限债权为客体的分析路径

现行民法以“权利被侵害时”为诉讼时效期间的起算点 ,在适用于未定期限债权时 ,其效果与诉讼时效制度限制权利的功能不甚契合 ,在法技术上亦欠完善和周延。比较而言 ,以“请求权可以行使时”代替“权利被侵害时”可以较好地解决现行法的问题 ,是更好的立法选择 ,但必须同时对未定期限之债的清偿期规则进行修改 ,将债权可以行使的基础定位于客观标准而非债权人意志之上 ,才能从根本上贯彻“行使论” ,避免重蹈现行法的覆辙。在上述分析的基础上 ,本文就未来民法典提出两点建议 :第一 ,诉讼时效期间起算点规则应规定为 :“诉讼时效期间从请求权可以行使时起开始计算” ;第二 ,未定期限之债的清偿期规则应规定为 :“履行期限不明确的 ,债权人可以随时请求债务人履行 ,债务人也可以随时履行。但是 ,根据债的性质或诚实信用原则不宜立即要求债务人履行的 ,债权人应于必要期间经过后请求”。     

物证时间信息检验

物证鉴定是犯罪侦查和法庭诉讼重建犯罪事实的重要手段,物证鉴定提供的时间信息是事实重建的核心要素。本文概述了现代物证时间信息检验的技术方法和结果应用,阐述了以“时点、时长和时序”为时间参数的物证时间信息检验技术和应用理论框架。     

I. Community Responsibility and Action

Community is the key to successful reduction of alcohol and other drug abuse. Only at the community level can effective comprehensive response be developed that will reduce both supply of and demand for destructive psychoactive drugs. Only the community can bring about the fundamental societal changes in attitudes and behavior that will reduce significantly our demand for drugs. Only the community can develop and sustain accessible programs that over time, will successfully prevent, treat and control substance abuse. The interest of society is to create a safe, secure and healthy environment that is free of drug abuse among all its members.     

Special conditions: modified Boeing Model 767-200 and -300 series airplanes; installation of a medical oxygen system utilizing liquid oxygen--Federal Aviation Administration. Final special conditions; request for comments

These special conditions are issued to E-Systems for design of Civil Reserve Air Fleet aeromedical evacuation ship set kits used to modify Boeing Model 767-200 and -300 series airplanes. Removal of existing passenger seats and installation of the kit will result in these airplanes being equipped with an aeromedical evacuation interior that can accommodate up to 111 litter patients and their attendants. The aeromedical evacuation ship set kit includes an additional oxygen system, utilizing liquid oxygen for storage, that provides medical oxygen for the litter patients. The applicable regulations do not contain adequate or appropriate safety standards for the design and installation of liquid oxygen systems. These special conditions contain the additional safety standards which the Administrator considers necessary to ensure that the design and installation of the liquid oxygen system is such that a level of safety equal to that intended by the applicable regulations is provided.     

Managing Police Patrol Time: The Role of Supervisor Directives

Contemporary police practice advocates the importance of proactive policing activities. Proactive policing reforms emphasize self‐initiated tasks during unassigned patrol time and directed activities based on supervisor review of crime analysis and problem identification. Our study analyzes data from systematic social observations of police patrol officers to examine how officers spent their discretionary time. We find that, on average, over three quarters of a patrol officers’ shift is unassigned. During this time, officers primarily self‐initiate routine patrol, or back up other officers on calls to which they were not dispatched. Just 6 percent of unassigned time activities are directed by supervising officers, dispatchers, other officers or citizens. Moreover, directives provided by supervisors are vague, general in form, and do not operationalize problem‐oriented policing, community‐oriented policing, or proactive policing strategies. We conclude that first, a very significant proportion of patrol officer time is spent uncommitted that could be better utilized doing proactive, problem‐oriented policing activities, and second, supervisors need to provide patrol officers with much more detailed directives, based on sound crime analysis, to help capitalize on the under‐utilization of patrol officer time.