IRAN OBSERVED: THE RISE OF THE IRANIAN NEO-CONSERVATIVES

McDowall relates how in 2005, contrary to the predictions of many western observers, Ahmadinejad was elected as President of Iran, reflecting popular disillusion with the reformist president, Khatami, and the rise of a new generation of politicians, whose relationships had been forged during the war with Iraq. Ahmadinejad came to power at an opportune moment: he could profile himself as an opponent of America and Israel. Wholesale changes in personnel formed the other mark of his revolution. Four years on, his populist economic policies have not proved effective, which could be significant in terms of the 2009 presidential elections. The crucial question is whether there is a suitable opposition candidate who might run against him. This is the edited text of the lecture which he gave to the Society on Wednesday 7 May 2008.     

THE IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS: ONE YEAR ON

This article, written by the former British Ambassador to Iran, starts with an overview from an insider's perspective of the 15 years of diplomacy leading up to the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran's Nuclear capabilities. It discusses the merits of the plan and its prospects for the future. It examines the development of international economic engagement, and in particular argues that the western powers need to do far more to deliver an economic quid pro quo for Iran's nuclear concessions: if the situation is not appreciably better soon, it will be impossible for the US and its partners to argue credibly that they are not in breach of the JCPOA. The article concludes with a discussion of Iran's economic and political prospects in the light of the nuclear deal.     

DROUGHT: THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.     

SYMPOSIUM ON DUAL CONTAINMENT: U.S. POLICY TOWARD IRAN AND IRAQ

The following is an edited version of a symposium sponsored by the Middle East Policy Council on February 24, 1994, in the Russell Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C. George McGovern, president of the Council, moderated the panel; Thomas R. Mattair, the Councis resident policy analyst, was the organizer and discussant.     

THE INDIAN CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AND THE MAKING OF HINDUS AND MUSLIMS IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR

Article 370 of the Indian constitution gives the northern province of Jammu and Kashmir special status within the union. Today that provision forms a nucleus of fierce political contention between secularists and religious nationalists in India, despite the manifest whittling down of the article's most significant aspects. This development is counterintuitive: the original intent of the article's introduction had no relation to questions of religion. This essay attempts to understand this unanticipated role, as a marker of the state's secularity or lack thereof, the article has come to play in Indian politics. It contends that the seeds were sown even at the time of shaping the Indian constitution of a perspective that viewed the people of Jammu and Kashmir according to their religious affiliations.     

THE FIRST WORLD WAR AND THE MIDDLE EAST

The First World War in the Middle East swept away five hundred years of Ottoman dominion. It ushered in new ideologies and radicalized old ones – from Arab nationalism and revolutionary socialism to impassioned forms of atavistic Islamism. It created heroic icons, like the enigmatic Lawrence or the modernizing Atatürk, and it completely re-drew the map of the region, forging a host of new nation states, For many, the self-serving intervention of these powers in the region between 1914 and 1919 is the major reason for the conflicts that have raged there on and off ever since. Yet many of the most common assertions about the First World War in the Middle East and its aftermath are devoid of context. This article argues that, far from being a mere sideshow to the war in Europe, the Middle Eastern conflict was in fact the centre of gravity in a war for imperial interests. Moreover, contrary to another persistent myth of the First World War in the Middle East, local leaders and their forces were not simply the puppets of the Great Powers. The way in which these local forces embraced, resisted, succumbed to, disrupted, or on occasion overturned the plans of the imperialist powers for their own interests in fact played an important role in shaping the immediate aftermath of the conflict – and in laying the foundations for the troubled Middle East.