私人安保公司：东南亚海上安全治理的新主体

近年来,东南亚海上私人安保公司悄然兴起。其参与东南亚海上安全治理是海上安全环境的变化、海上安全供给与需求的鸿沟、东南亚民主化进程及安全部门改革所共同驱动的结果。海峡和港口是私人安保公司重点参与的治理区域,在马六甲海峡,尽管私人安保公司挑战了国家主权,但其能有效应对海上安全威胁,在短期内已得到国家“默许”;而印尼勿拉湾港口是一种多主体参与治理的安全系统,私人安保公司与其他行为体竞争,反而导致港口不安全。相比较而言,私人安保公司在海峡和港口安全治理中具有隐秘性强、与国家关系复杂、规制难及趋利性等共性;而不同的参与模式与作用则反映了二者的差异性。当前,中国要进一步挖掘海上私人安保的潜力,并做好相应的规制;要重视利用私人安保公司在海峡和港口安全治理中的共性与差异,鼓励中国与东南亚私人安保公司发展战略合作,保护中国海外利益。     

东南亚海盗问题探究

海盗问题是对当今世界安全构成重大威胁的非传统安全问题之一。东南亚海盗对我国的安全,尤其是海洋和能源安全构成了巨大的威胁和挑战。本文力图探讨东南亚海盗的历史与现状、当今东南亚海盗猖獗的主要原因以及东南亚海盗问题的影响和前景。     

From Cottage Industry to International Organisation: The Evolution of Salafi-Jihadism and the Emergence of the Al Qaeda Ideology

Al Qaeda after the invasion of Afghanistan can now be understood as not only an international terror organisation but an ideology which inspires groups with similar goals of a supranational caliphate. The Al Qaeda ideology draws from long standing historical Islamic concepts that date to the time of Muhammad. The ideologues of the organisation, most notably Ayman al Zawahiri, have cleverly used these ideas and the works of other Islamists to create not just a terror organisation but an ideology designed to unite disparate groups of Islamic radicals around the world.     

Comparing Extremist Perpetrators of Suicide and Non-Suicide Attacks in the United States

ABSTRACT

This study explores differences in perpetrators of suicide attacks and non-suicide attacks in the United States. The study uses data on far-right and Al Qaeda and affiliated/inspired terrorists between 1990 and 2013 from the United States Extremist Crime Database. Our analysis estimates logistic regression models to test whether suicide attackers were more likely to have exhibited specific risk factors for suicidality, while examining other prominent claims regarding patterns of suicide terrorism. Suicide attackers were no more likely than non-suicide attackers to have previously attempted suicide or to have been diagnosed as mentally ill. Suicide attackers were more likely, though, to have a history of substance abuse, to be loners, have served in the military, participated in paramilitary training, and be more ideologically committed to the cause. We found that Al Qaeda affiliated/inspired attackers were more likely than far-right attackers to have engaged in a suicide mission. With the current focus on Americans traveling to Syria and Iraq to receive training and fight for jihadist movements (e.g., the Islamic State), our findings appear relevant. Observers have expressed concern that these fighters may return and then commit attacks in their homeland. Law enforcement could make use of this study’s findings.     

Analysis and Evolution of the Global Jihadist Movement Propaganda

The Global Jihadist Movement (GJM) has a series of well-defined objectives, which constitute the central points of their ideology. In the realization of these goals, propaganda and public communication play a central role. This article studies the evolution of the principal characteristics of GJM propaganda, analyzing over 2,000 documents issued by the GJM between 1996 and 2005.     

全球化背景下的东南亚伊斯兰金融

全球化包括经济、政治、文化、社会等多个维度,其中经济全球化最为重要。经济全球化突出表现为金融的全球化。20世纪70年代,伊斯兰国家创建现代伊斯兰金融业,并逐步将伊斯兰金融推向全球,形成一个声势浩大的伊斯兰金融体系。本文试以东南亚地区为例,分析全球化背景下东南亚伊斯兰金融业发展的特点和趋势。     

The Quantitative Analysis of Terrorism and Immigration: An Initial Exploration

This article uses immigration and other biographical data to refute much of the conventional wisdom about the relationship between terrorism and immigration. Using a database created from the biographical data of 373 terrorists, we have established a number of significant findings. Over forty percent of our database is made up of Western Nationals. Second, despite widespread alarms raised over terrorist infiltration from Mexico, we found no terrorist presence in Mexico and no terrorists who entered the U.S. from Mexico. Third, we found a sizeable terrorist presence in Canada and a number of Canadian-based terrorists who have entered the U.S. In addition to illuminating the terrorist networks entrenched in the West, this paper is also an attempt to advance the field of terrorism studies by taking a quantitative approach to data analysis.     

The Evolution of Jihadist Terrorism in Morocco

Over the last few years, Moroccans have been disproportionately involved in jihadist terrorism. Morocco has been increasingly identified as one of the largest producers of terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout Europe. This article examines the factors behind the emergence of jihadist terrorism in Morocco, and how this terrorist threat has gone beyond this country's borders. Three factors have contributed to this development: the influence of global jihad on potential Moroccan jihadists; the growing Islamization of the country; and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. In analyzing these variables, special attention will be paid to the Casablanca terrorist attacks on May 16, 2003, marking the debut of suicide terrorism in Morocco. The article will also examine the principal counterterrorist initiatives Morocco has implemented in response to this threat.     

Universal soldiers or parochial actors: Understanding jihadists as products of their environments

ABSTRACT

Why did the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra (JN)—two groups that shared similar ideological preferences and were both initially part of the Al Qaeda network—take different paths in the Syrian conflict? Part of the answer lies in the fact that JN is primarily a Syrian organization, whereas Iraqis lead ISIS. A jihadist group’s relationship to its country of origin and domicile (the two are not always the same) helps to explain that organization’s ideological preferences and alliance behavior. Yet no method of categorization based on jihadist-state relations exists. I fill this gap by theorizing an explanatory typology based on a jihadist group’s relationship with its country of origin and/or domicile. This typology consists of two tiers. The first classifies jihadist organizations based on whether they are nationally homogeneous or heterogeneous, and whether they are based in their country of origin, exile, or multiple locations. The second tier categorizes groups based on the nature of their engagement—collaborative, belligerent, or neutral—with a state. This new typology enables the generation of multiple hypotheses and has practical implications given that most U.S. counterterrorism efforts require cooperation from partner nations.     

The nature of Islamic fundamentalism in Israel

This article focuses on the nature of Islamic fundamentalism in Israel. The interplay of Islamic fundamentalism's attitude toward the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict and the extent of the movement's integration into Israeli political life is explored. In addressing these themes, the history of Israeli Islamic fundamentalism is reviewed from the pre‐state period through the present, as are effects of both internal and external factors on the movement's development. In general, the movement has followed a pragmatic line, although its future endeavors and nature will undoubtedly be influenced by the continuing peace process.     

The Strength of Weak Terrorist Ties

The current age of technology, mass communication, and globalization makes networks analysis an especially useful tool for understanding cell-based terrorism. Some concepts from traditional networks analysis may be especially relevant. The Strength of Weak Ties hypothesis (SWT) is particularly promising and will be used here to demonstrate the usability of traditional networks analysis for studying modern terrorism. The findings suggest that the strength of weak terrorist ties may improve Al Qaeda's operational capabilities despite the group's decentralization following the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan beginning in 2001.     

The Logic of Terrorism: Existential Anxiety,the Search for Meaning,and Terrorist Ideologies

Drawing from the work of political theorists, theologians, anthropologists, journalists, philosophers, and contemporary psychologists studying Terror Management Theory (TMT), it becomes possible to see that the concepts of existentialism and ideology may be useful for modern thinkers attempting to understand a problem such as terrorism. Integrating work from these fields makes it possible to see that terrorism may be driven by an existential-terroristic feedback loop: a cycle in which people support or engage in terrorism to alleviate existential anxiety but ultimately find this anxiety exacerbated in the wake of the violence they create or sanction. The loop is closed when this exacerbated anxiety compels them to reaffirm their support of, or participation in, terrorist violence. If this model is valid, then effectively addressing the problem of terrorism requires joining existing U.S. policies with policies that address ideologies. Specifically, policies must aspire to a) mitigate existential anxiety, b) provide a compelling counter-narrative, c) address environmental factors conducive to radicalization, d) prevent the formation of radicalized groups, and e) deradicalize existing ideologues.     

东南亚地区非传统安全合作机制架构与中国的策略思考

在东南亚地区的非传统安全合作中,存在3个层次的合作机制。东盟主导下的非传统安全合作机制,深化缓慢,执行乏力,主要扮演着合作的倡导者和规划者的角色;成员国间的双边或多边小范围合作机制是东盟合作计划的实施者,但合作领域单一,能力有限;区外西方大国主导的双边或多边合作机制,将传统安全与非传统安全合作相结合,发展迅速。这3个层次的非传统安全合作机制既相互支持,又相互竞争。面对东南亚非传统安全合作机制的独特架构,中国需进行策略思考。     

NATO and the war on terror: The organizational challenges of the post 9/11 world

This paper deals with NATO’s ability to contribute to the war on terrorism. The paper highlights the difficulties that the organization has encountered in dealing with a threat that is entirely different from the one that the organization was created to deal with. The paper discusses NATO’s new policies, al Qaeda’s transformation since 9/11, and the nature of terrorism. The paper suggests that although NATO has drafted a number of new antiterrorist policies they are all premised on the idea of fighting a war against terrorism as if terrorism were a well defined military enemy. We conclude by arguing that the organizational behavior demonstrated by NATO is consistent with what Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow predict in their organizational process model and that many of the difficulties encountered by NATO in the war against terrorism are due to the nature of the organization. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Tactical Means,Strategic Ends: Al Qaeda's Use of Denial and Deception

This analysis surveys Al Qaeda's employment of denial and deception (D&D) and shows that it uses D&D on tactical and operational levels in order to achieve strategic results. It defines denial and deception and explains how they relate to Al Qaeda, overviews Al Qaeda's changing network structure and seeks to summarize how Al Qaeda employs D&D throughout its operations. This paper is structured to show that denial and deception are institutionalized factors that manifest themselves through all aspects of bin Laden's organization and that the traditional conception of D&D—that nonstate actors are incapable of employing deception as an element of grand strategy—is incorrect.     

The Islamic State and the New Tribalism

This article focuses on the apocalyptic zeitgeist of the Islamic State through the lens of what we call the New Tribalism. It finds that IS emerged from the Al Qaeda (AQ) milieu, but soon split with AQ as the messianic excitement surrounding Al-Baghdadi and his teachings grew. In common with previous millennial/messianic movements in all three “Peoples of the Book”—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—IS soon evolved beyond the laws of the normative faith (antinomianism). We hold that for this reason, despite its claims of faith and fealty, IS has left the Islamic Umah behind, becoming a malign sectarian group of its own whose dynamism and successes are attracting a global audience and support from Muslims in almost every country. This helps to explain such abhorrent practices as forced conversion, sexual servitude, the destruction of historic artifacts, and mass executions. We find that the American invasion of Iraq was the vital first step in a series of events, which gave birth to IS. A thorough review of IS history and political culture traces these historic moments in time.     

中国与东盟关系现状、趋势、对策

在中国国际战略环境中,东盟处于十分重要的地位。目前中国与东盟关系正面临着美国"重返东南亚"和南海部分岛屿主权争端矛盾上升的两大考验。我国应高度重视对东盟关系的发展,继续坚持"与邻为伴、以邻为善"的周边外交方针,大力促进双方的全面合作、创新合作、务实合作、互利合作,不断深化双方战略伙伴关系。     

东南亚安全合作构想

本文着重对东南亚安全合作相关问题进行探讨,并就我国在东南亚安全合作背景下面临的挑战提出相应对策,认为中国作为东亚地区的大国应顺应经济全球化和区域一体化的发展趋势,主动融入和积极推动地区安全合作的发展,为新时期我国国家目标的实现创造良好的国际环境。     

中国在东南亚的国家形象

冷战结束以来,中国与东南亚关系不断提升,东南亚成为中国塑造负责任大国形象、推进＂和谐周边＂建设的重地和示范区。一方面,中国成功地从＂威胁者＂转变为＂合作者＂,负责任大国形象日益鲜明突出,并有进一步拓展深化的可能;但另一方面,随着当前中国快速崛起,各种制衡和挑战因素不断增加,中国的国家形象也有被国际舆论再次塑造为＂挑战者＂甚至于＂威胁者＂的可能。今后五年,中国应制定针对东南亚的国家形象塑造战略,在继续保持＂合作者＂形象的基础上,致力于塑造＂成熟的战略合作伙伴＂形象。     

发展中的东盟“中国观”：从威胁到机会？

本文旨在分析为何东盟国家曾经将中国视为威胁，如今却转变观念，将中国视为促进地区稳定和一体化的重要推动力。第一部分将阐述东盟国家对中国的官方立场的变化，即从“中国威胁论”向“中国机会论”的转变。在80年代，当中国的经济开放促进了其与南部周边国家之间的关系时，这种观念的转变尤为突出。第二部分认为，在欧美日经济发展呈现出保护主义趋势，并遭遇发展瓶颈的情况下，中国的发展为东盟国家的经济增长提供了新契机。同时，笔者着重分析了中国从地区的不稳定根源向地区安全保障者转化的原因。第三部分指出，尽管中国与东盟国家之间建立起了特殊关系，但中国无法排斥其他大国，尤其是日本与美国在该地区的影响力。