Evaluating the impact of repeated leadership targeting on militant group durability

ABSTRACT

The effects of repeated leadership targeting on militant organizations have been little discussed and quantitatively assessed. This research undertakes to assess the policy’s effectiveness by account for targeting policies’ repeated nature. Analysis of 207 militant organizations between 1970 and 2008 finds that repeated targeting can hasten a group’s demise, but quadratically. While initial targeting interventions actually increase a group’s resilience, a series of successive attacks significantly reduces their survivability. This effect is particularly significant for young organizations. The findings suggest that for targeting to be effective, patience and repeated interventions are required; it is erroneous to conclude its effectiveness based on a single intervention result.     

Coups and nascent democracies: the military and Egypt's failed consolidation

Why do coups happen in some nascent democracies but not in others? To answer this question, I probe four interconnected variables in democratizing regimes: the military's ethos; the military's corporate interests; the military's perception of the new civilian ruling elite; and the correlation of force between the military and the founding democratic government. My argument is twofold: first, I maintain that ideational variables are central to shaping the military's political behaviour; and second, I argue in favour of merging insights from cultural, corporate, and structural theories to understand the consolidation, or breakdown, of nascent democracies.     

Britain and the Collapse of Egypt's Constitutional Order, 1950-52

Britain's longstanding practice of intervening in the struggle between King Farouk, the Wafd and the constitution was one of the main causes of the demise of parliamentary politics in Egypt. Indeed, the sharp deterioration in the political situation in the winter of 1951-52, which paved the way for the Free Officers' coup on 23 July 1952, was the result of a breakdown in the Anglo-Egyptian defence negotiations. The Wafd government used the 'British question' as a distraction from its own internal shortcomings. Britain responded by pursuing a policy of toppling the Wafd and replacing it with a more amenable administration. To this end, British officials manipulated the United States into co-sponsoring the Middle East Command proposals of October 1951, aware that American backing would be required during imminent disturbances in Egypt. The subsequent Ismailia incident of January 1952 hastened the collapse of Egypt's constitutional order and also transformed British perceptions of the usefulness of the Suez base.     

伊斯兰法渊源的整合机制

伊斯兰文化在最终形成体系的过程中，始终以伊斯兰原则与精神为价值取向和指导方针，并以兼容并蓄、广泛继承的开放态度把阿拉伯、波斯、印度、希腊等东西方古典文化融为一体，以伊斯兰文化的形式出现。在这一历史进程中，伊斯兰法渊源作为筛选净化、整合定型机制，是伊斯兰文化体系得以绵延千余年，保持纯洁性、主体性、独特性不变的根本原因和成为独立形态的基本要素。如若不是伊斯兰法学家从《古兰经》、“圣训”中创制演绎出的伊斯兰法渊源，伊斯兰文化体系是难以建立的。     

伊斯兰世界转型浅论

伊斯兰世界面临经济全球化、西方民主化和伊斯兰文化与价值观变革要求的挑战,正处于一个新的转型时期.其转型的本质是建立在伊斯兰文明基础上的自我革新与完善.伊斯兰运动重趋活跃和伊斯兰国家同美国矛盾激化是伊斯兰转型时期的突出特点.     

Foreign Policy Restructuring: Egypt's Disengagement from the Arab–Israeli Conflict Revisited

This article first examines the relative potency of explanations of Egypt's disengagement from the Arab–Israeli conflict that have stressed Sadat's beliefs, class interests or US influence, and it then makes the case for a state–society-centred explanation. Much is written about a diversionary internal–external linkage when a state threatened by internal unrest resorts to international aggression. This article makes the case for a preservative linkage between domestic tensions and accommodationist external behaviour. It identifies the fiscal crisis and societal challenges as key factors behind the policy shift and examines state utilisation of the policy shift to reduce domestic threats. Foreign policy provided the means for easing strained state–society relations by generating resources to alleviate societal crisis and limit the politically costly domestic taxation. Though this did not necessitate making a specific decision (e.g. the visit to Jerusalem), it tipped the scales towards a particular policy option, in this case disengaging from the external conflict rather than maintaining the status quo.     

Islamic extremism and the peace process

This article first discusses the negative attitude of Islamic radical groups toward Israel and the peace process. It then presents an assessment of the long run potential of the Islamic radicals, as well as their present politico‐military capabilities to harm the peace process. The article focuses on the capacity of Islamic radicals to subvert or intimidate the pro‐peace Arab regimes, wage war and develop nuclear capabilities. It ends with some observations on how the activities of Islamic extremists influence the ongoing political debate in Israel on the future of the peace process.     

Egypt's Wall with Gaza & the Emergence of a New Middle East Alignment

In December 2009, Egypt began construction of an underground steel wall on its border with Gaza in a move designed to halt the smuggling of illegal weapons and other contraband via the Hamas-run underground tunnel network. Egypt's initiative, which is being carried out in the name of its own strategic-national interests, has been the subject of intense criticism throughout the region. This article examines the emergence of a new alignment in the Middle East, based upon a new fault line between moderates and radicals. This alignment is manifested in Egypt's construction of its underground steel wall. By exploring the motivations, responses, and implications of building such a wall, it will become apparent that two camps have emerged in the region on this issue and that their stances are but an illustration of the aforementioned shift.     

The Islamic State and the New Tribalism

This article focuses on the apocalyptic zeitgeist of the Islamic State through the lens of what we call the New Tribalism. It finds that IS emerged from the Al Qaeda (AQ) milieu, but soon split with AQ as the messianic excitement surrounding Al-Baghdadi and his teachings grew. In common with previous millennial/messianic movements in all three “Peoples of the Book”—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—IS soon evolved beyond the laws of the normative faith (antinomianism). We hold that for this reason, despite its claims of faith and fealty, IS has left the Islamic Umah behind, becoming a malign sectarian group of its own whose dynamism and successes are attracting a global audience and support from Muslims in almost every country. This helps to explain such abhorrent practices as forced conversion, sexual servitude, the destruction of historic artifacts, and mass executions. We find that the American invasion of Iraq was the vital first step in a series of events, which gave birth to IS. A thorough review of IS history and political culture traces these historic moments in time.     

论伊斯兰伦理道德的社会应用

伊斯兰伦理道德是社会稳定的构成要素。它作为重大的社会财富保持着稳定的社会功能,促进了阿拉伯民族延绵不断的文化传承。在社会应用层面,伊斯兰伦理道德在社会生活中发挥着有效作用,这便是其价值所在。伊斯兰伦理道德立足于社会实践,服务于世俗生活,故为世俗生活而制定,它具有神圣性的规范要求,即敬畏安拉,并将这一规范变为道德义务和纲纪,成为最重要的内容和精神支柱。伊斯兰伦理道德属于稳定的社会基础,为社会成员所接受和维护,用伊斯兰伦理道德的眼光评判人和事物,是穆斯林的主要思维方式,这就使伦理道德成为社会进步发展的重要精神资源。伊斯兰伦理道德文化内涵的重要性在于它对当今伊斯兰社会依然具有社会现实价值,对塑造穆斯林的精神世界、价值观有着很强的规范和指导作用。     

伊斯兰极端主义的概念阐释

一宗教极端主义的涵义目前,国内学术界对“宗教极端主义”这一概念尚未形成一致的定义。金宜久先生认为,“宗教极端主义是‘宗教’与‘极端主义’的复合概念,可以理解为‘宗教的极端主义,或宗教中的极端主义’,指宗教中含有极端主义的成分或因素,是宗教性的极端主义”。或者是“在宗教名义下的极端主义”,即“为达到一定目的而以宗教名目活动的极端主义”1。吴云贵先生则认为,“宗教极端主义是个泛称。它所指的是各种宗教内部的极端主义倾向,或假借宗教名义进行违法犯罪活动”2。还有学者认为,“宗教极端主义是一种与宗教有密切联系的极端主…     

Characteristics of the ＂Islamic State＂

The extreme organization that calls itself the ＂Islamic State＂ has alarmed the world with its rapid rise and grave damage while drawing sharp censure from numerous directions. In his speech on the strategy of dismantling the ＂Islamic State of Iraq and Syria,＂ American President Barak Obama＇ s called it ＂a terrorist organization, pure and simple.＂ 1 Rooted in Middle East turmoil, facilitated by the irresponsible policies of the great powers and nearby countries, the ＂Islamic State＂ （also known as ISIS or ISIL） stands out from among regional terrorist organizations in a number of vital characteristics. ISIS, disowned by the A1-Qaeda, nevertheless challenges it and seems to gain the upper hand. What lies behind its success are at least two powerful characteristics： its religio-political ambition to establish a recognizable country, and its ability to entice the zeal of Western jihadists.     

伊斯兰世界的命运与前途

伊斯兰世界的命运与前途,这是一个庞大、复杂的历史命题,但同时也是一个无法回避的问题。全球穆斯林已经超过16亿人。伊斯兰国家[1]的穆斯林也已超过13亿,即占世界人口的四分之一,伊斯兰世界的发展与变化不仅将改变伊斯兰各国的面貌,无疑还将影响整个世界。     

Rethinking the repression-dissent nexus: assessing Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood's response to repression since the coup of 2013

This article examines the repression-dissent nexus in Islamist social movements. Several studies have overwhelmingly focused on the effects of repression on protest volume, level, and tactics. However, understanding the responses of individual members to regime repression and how they relate to the movement's collective response is rarely discussed. By analysing the response of the Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood to regime repression since the coup of 2013, this article explains the effects of repression on opposition movements. It argues that to understand the impact of repression on these movements, we need to differentiate between the collective and individual responses to repression. These two levels of analysis are crucial to better understand the repression-dissent nexus. Also, the article contends that collective and individual responses to repression cannot be explained by focusing solely on the structural and institutional factors (i.e. organization, ideology, leadership, etc.). Members’ personal experiences, memory, emotions, and trauma play a key role in shaping their response to repression. The article thus accounts for both the formal and informal effects of repression on Islamists.     

De-terrorising the Palestinian national struggle: the roadmap to peace

This article follows the representation of Palestinian nationalism as a history of terrorism. This representation was produced in the Israeli media and academia, and broadcast by the state's political elite in international arenas. In the West, this image was accepted in many circles and affected the chances of the Palestinians having a fair hearing in the peace negotiations which began after the 1967 war. The article follows the construction of the equation of Palestinian nationalism with terrorism, assesses its impact on the peace process, and suggests the deconstruction of this narrative as the best way forward in future negotiations.     

揭开伊斯兰世界之谜--《伊斯兰教势力》介评

长期以来伊斯兰世界一直披着神秘的面纱,加上美国等西方国家的大肆渲染,伊斯兰教几乎成了暴力恐怖活动的代名词,这种状况阻碍了人们对伊斯兰教的全面了解和认识。日本讲谈社2000年12月出版了伊斯兰教问题专家宫田律的《伊斯兰教势力--统治21世纪的全球最大势力之谜》一书,全     

《伊斯兰极端组织现状》专题之三：中东主要伊斯兰极端组织现状

中东是伊斯兰极端势力的策源地和大本营，同时也是国际伊斯兰极端势力泛滥的“重灾区”。据统计，中东地区共有上百个伊斯兰极端组织，它们多崇尚伊斯兰原教旨主义，追求全球圣战，带有强烈反美、反以色彩。20世纪90年代中后期，在各国严厉打击下，中东的伊斯兰极端势力遭到很大削弱。     

从沙里亚蒂思想看伊斯兰革命

阿里·沙里亚蒂是伊斯兰革命的三大著名理论家[1]之一,也是伊斯兰革命早期最重要的理论家.然而,他的激进思想,就其实质而言,与当时第三世界理论家(即西方所谓"第三世界主义者")的理论框架和内容有本质上的相似性与一致性,表现出强烈的"民族主义"情绪和突出的"社会主义"倾向.伊斯兰革命早期阶段所呈现的民族民主性质与沙里亚蒂的思想特征完全一致,后者也部分地折射出伊斯兰革命性质的复杂性.     

赫鲁晓夫时期围绕宗教路线问题的党内斗争

在苏联历史中,赫鲁晓夫执政的十年是以解冻著称的。但是,人们对赫鲁晓夫的另一个业绩——从1958年到1964年持续6年的大规模反宗教运动却了解甚少。反宗教运动与政治上的解冻,正好是相逆的两种政治潮流,但赫鲁晓夫却在这两种相逆潮流的漩涡中挣扎着执政最后的6年。难怪他正在踌躇满志地陶醉于自己创造的共产主义美景时,却突然被他的同伴赶下政治舞台。