阿拉伯国家与以色列的新一轮和解及其限度北大核心

近年来,阿拉伯国家与以色列出现和解势头,突出表现为阿联酋、巴林、苏丹和摩洛哥等四国于2020年与以色列签署《亚伯拉罕协议》,实现关系正常化。这是继1979年埃及与以色列媾和、1993年巴勒斯坦解放组织与以色列言和以及1994年约旦与以色列建交之后,阿以关系的又一重大突破,继而推进阿以双方在各领域的交流合作,尤其是短期内由经贸扩展到外交、安全等领域。阿以和解的驱动力源自以色列、部分阿拉伯国家和美国等有关各方根据地区形势变化作出的战略调整。2023年1月以来,以色列极右翼政府推行强硬政策,以色列与巴勒斯坦的冲突不断升级,给阿以和解蒙上阴影。有鉴于巴勒斯坦问题、阿拉伯国家与以美深层次矛盾等制约因素,阿以关系的根本改善仍面临不少困难与障碍,全面和平之路依然曲折漫长。     

以色列俄籍犹太移民的社会地位分析

以色列是一个移民国家,其主体民族犹太人绝大多数是在建国后从一百多个国家和地区迁居而来的移民及其后裔。目前,以境内最庞大的移民群体是来自苏联、俄罗斯联邦和独联体等国家的犹太人。俄籍犹太移民积极参与以色列政治、经济、文化、社会等方面事务,他们对以色列内政外交的影响日益加深。     

北美犹太基金组织援助以色列阿拉伯人 非政府组织现象分析

近年来, 一批总部设在北美地区的犹太基金组织不断向以色列境内巴勒斯坦阿拉伯 人非政府组织提供资金援助, 对其援助动机主要有两种看法:一是意识形态说, 即认为援助阿拉伯 人非政府组织是为了推动以色列的民主、自由和多元化发展, 维护社会稳定, 同时提升作为整体的 以色列的力量;二是控制与削弱说, 即认为财政援助只是犹太基金组织的一种手段, 其最终目的在 于控制并削弱巴勒斯坦阿拉伯人非政府组织。但无论“意识形态说”还是“控制与削弱说”都很难 做到独排众议、一语中的。追究援助动机本无意义。只要这种援助有利于弥合阿犹两族人民之间 的历史裂痕, 维护以色列的国家稳定和繁荣, 缓和当前紧张的巴以局势, 就是成功的援助     

当前中东剧变的内生性和阿拉伯性

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为"当前北非、中东变局及其影响"的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

阿拉伯国家政治文化的多维考量

阿拉伯国家的政治文化是阿拉伯民族关于政治生活的心理学。阿拉伯国家的政治文化只是阿拉伯文化流变历史进程中的一个组成部分,具有一定的独立性与特殊性。第二次世界大战后至今,阿拉伯地区政治生态先后经历了民族国家构建、伊斯兰复兴运动以及最近席卷西亚北非的阿拉伯之春。在此期间诸多政治思潮、宗教主义与文化观念融入到阿拉伯国家,深入到政治生活的各个层面,构成阿拉伯国家政治文化丰富多彩的内容。由于阿拉伯世界特殊的宗教地域特色,导致其政治文化不可避免地具有阿拉伯民族性与伊斯兰宗教性,二者的此消彼长则是阿拉伯政治文化最鲜明的结构模式。     

主体民族主义与国族构建的悖论——以色列民族政策思想之评析

以色列是一个以犹太、阿拉伯两大族类为主体的多民族国家。国家的犹太属性、内部殖民主义和分而治之是以色列处理与国内阿拉伯人民族关系的基本思想。以色列的民族政策造成阿拉伯人在社会生活的各个方面遭受挤压、歧视,成为经济落后、政治孤立的少数族类,与主流社会十分疏远。这一现实与以色列理应将全体国民纳入其民族国家构建范畴,以塑造统一的政治文化共同体和国族认同的民族构建产生了直接的悖论,并且从根本上制约着国家的稳定、健康与和谐发展。     

宗教政党对以色列政局及阿以冲突的影响

犹太教是以色列国教,大部分犹太人都不同程度地信仰犹太教。宗教政党得到正统派犹太教徒及部分宗教色彩较浓重的东方犹太人的支持,他们的支持者总体来说比较稳定,在历届政府中所占席位变化不大,近年来有上升的趋势,是各执政党在组阁中争取和团结的对象。在政府制定内外政策时,宗教政党经常起到“四两拨千斤”的作用,尤其在制定对阿拉伯国家政策时产生重大影响。     

阿拉伯君主制政权相对稳定的原因探析

阿拉伯君主制国家在阿拉伯剧变浪潮中平稳过关,促使学术界重新关注君主制在阿拉伯世界长期存续的现象.阿拉伯世界现有8个君主制国家虽然国情差异较大,但源于传统的政治合法性、地租型经济、以家族和部落为核心的政治联盟、外部力量支持是这些国家保持政权稳定的主要原因.阿拉伯君主制虽然具有合法性和生命力,仍将长期存在,但也面临诸如经济、民生问题,族际、教派冲突等挑战.阿拉伯君主制国家须通过改革,适应快速变化的经济、社会现实.     

The Arabs in Israel: Identity,criminality and the peace process

The basic datum that criminality among the Palestinian Arabs of Israel is nearly double the average among the population in general begs some hard questions and answers. It is suggested here that, besides the regular crimes endemic in Israeli society of which Arabs and Jews alike partake, there is a category of criminal activity that is peculiar to the Arabs, under the heading of ‘ideological’, namely nationalistically and/or religiously induced. It is suggested here that the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians does not necessarily reduce the rate of criminality among Israeli Arabs. Quite the contrary, in some cases it might increase criminal partnerships between Palestinians on both sides of the Green Line divide even when the peace process is alive and kicking; and when it is not, things might even get worse with the Israeli Arabs increasingly identifying with their brethren across the border in their struggle against the right‐wing government of Israel from which they are totally alienated.     

Evaluating the Communication between Groups in Dispute: Equality in Contact Interventions between Jews and Arabs in Israel

This article examines a new approach for evaluating the process of interactive conflict-resolution interventions by focusing on the quality of communication between the groups in dispute. This approach assesses the extent to which contact interventions, aimed at improving relations between sides in dispute, actually promote among their participants relationships, behaviors, and interactions that fulfill standards of social justice, equality, and fairness. Creating equality in communication models and reinforces values of mutual respect and tolerance. Thus, establishing symmetrical communication can be especially important for many interventions conducted to resolve conflicts marked by unequal distribution of power. One such asymmetrical conflict is the one between the Jewish majority and the Arab minority in Israel. This article describes a study that applies our process-evaluation approach to assess equality and social justice in planned contact interventions between Israeli Jews and Arabs by measuring the degree to which members of the two groups contributed equally to the communication between them. Finally, the article presents guidelines, derived from this and other similar studies, for establishing communication equality in other planned contact interventions.     

Analogies to Terror: The Construction of Social Problems in Israel During the Intifada Al Aqsa

Studies of the construction of social problems suggest that claims makers only relate to the issue that they are trying to place on the national agenda. However, an analysis of the Israeli public discourse about a number of social problems during the Intifada Al Aqsa indicates that this is not the case. The external threat served as an inferential structure for understanding and explaining the country's internal ones. Because of the centrality of the Intifada in the public imagination, claimants made a wide variety of analogies to the problem of Palestinian terror. All four areas of the discourse—about the severity of the problems, their causes, the rationales given for taking preventive and/or ameliorative action, and the solutions offered—were replete with references and analogies to the uprising. Clearly, the claimants believed that this was a particularly effective way of competing in the social problems marketplace, but the analogies may, in fact, have reinforced the existing hierarchy of priorities rather than lead to a significant shift in the public agenda.     

以色列阿拉伯人口分析

1948年5月14日,以色列首任总理本·古里安在《以色列独立宣言》中声称:"以色列国……将尽全力促进国家的发展以造福于所有的居民;将以以色列先知所梦想的自由、正义与和平的原则为基础;将保证全体公民不分宗教信仰、种族和性别充分享受社会的和政治的平等;将保证宗教信仰、语言、教育和文化的自由……"[1]在以色列这个犹太人占总人口约80%,且在其社会、经济、政治、军事和文化等诸方面占据绝对优势的国家中,阿拉伯人是一个民族(作为阿拉伯人)、族群(作为巴勒斯坦人)、宗教(作为穆斯林、基督徒和德鲁兹人)和语言(阿拉伯语)上的少数群体.时间已过半个多世纪,以色列政府是否实现了它在独立宣言中的庄严承诺呢?     

印度女性社会地位探析

印度政府长期致力于从经济、政治、法律等各方面促进女性发展，从为女性创造一个良好的外部发展环境、帮助女性在经济上获得独立、消除性别歧视等方面入手，使女性参与社会经济活动的人数和经济活动的范围都在不断扩大。尽管如此，印度女性在发展进程中还存在着种种问题和挑战。     

The nature of Islamic fundamentalism in Israel

This article focuses on the nature of Islamic fundamentalism in Israel. The interplay of Islamic fundamentalism's attitude toward the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict and the extent of the movement's integration into Israeli political life is explored. In addressing these themes, the history of Israeli Islamic fundamentalism is reviewed from the pre‐state period through the present, as are effects of both internal and external factors on the movement's development. In general, the movement has followed a pragmatic line, although its future endeavors and nature will undoubtedly be influenced by the continuing peace process.     

The single-state alternative in Palestine/Israel

Since the Oslo Accords, the two-state solution has dominated, and frustrated, the official search for peace in Palestine/Israel. In parallel to it, an alternative struggle of resistance—centred upon the single-state idea as a more liberating pathway towards justice to the conflict—has re-emerged against the hegemony of Zionism and the demise of a viable two-state solution in Palestine/Israel. This paper inquires into the nature of this phenomenon as a movement of resistance. To this end, it reconstructs the re-emergence of the single-state solution intellectually and organisationally from within a Gramscian-inspired lens—while specifically focusing upon the centrality of the anti-Oslo writings of Edward Said and the consequent role of the Diaspora within this alternative. This it does from within a de-colonial approach to the politics of resistance which centres the political practices of the oppressed themselves in its analysis. Thus, it analyses the potential of the single-state alternative as a Gramscian ‘philosophical movement’ from within its own self-understandings, strategies and maps to power. In doing so, it aims to shed light upon a largely silenced pathway of resistance to the current peace process, to question its location between the ‘local’ and the ‘global’, and to take its possibility as a more just alternative to the status quo seriously.     

以色列总理直选制的兴废

单一选区比例代表制是以色列议会选举的核心。建国后 ,对它的争议几乎从未停息过 ,人们不断尝试改革选举制度。 1 992年 ,议会终于通过了由选民直接选举总理的新选举法 ,堪称以色列最大的选举改革。然而 ,事实证明这是一次事与愿违的改革 ,它“产生了与改革者的意图正好相反的结果” :党派数量大幅度增加 ,以色列政坛分崩离析 ;议席呈分散化趋势 ,大党的优势减弱 ,小党尤其是宗教党的作用不断增强 ;内阁危机更加频繁。因此 ,废除总理直选制势在必行。     

The PLO and Israel in Central America: The geopolitical dimension

Recently, attention has been drawn to the close relations between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the ruling Sandinista regime in Nicaragua. The support, training, and arms furnished by the PLO to the Sandinistas and like‐minded revolutionary movements in surrounding Central American countries have often been cited as proof that Nicaragua has been transformed into a base for international terrorism in the Western Hemisphere.

This article assesses the relationship between the PLO and the Sandinistas. In particular, it examines the geopolitical dimension of this relationship, that is, the extension or transposition of the conflict between the PLO and Israel in the Middle East to Central America. In this respect, PLO support and assistance to the Sandinistas and other revolutionary movements in surrounding countries has served as a counterbalance to Israeli support and arms sales to Nicaragua's neighbors in Central America.