东北亚油气合作的现实选择:来自中国在中亚的成功经验

东北亚和中亚地区凭借丰富的油气资源,在世界能源版图中的地位日渐上升。近年来,中亚地区油气合作发展迅速,但是在资源总量上更具优势的东北亚油气合作之路却充满曲折。在地区性统一能源市场形成之前,政府间多边协调机制仍然是东北亚油气合作的现实选择。中国在互利双赢的理念指导下,以良好的政治互信为基础,以油气运输管线为纽带,通过以双边合作为主、双边合作带动多边合作的方式,循序渐进地稳步推进了与中亚国家的油气合作。因此,中国在推动地区油气合作方面积累了一定的成功经验,提高了驾驭复杂局面的能力,理应在推进东北亚油气合作方面发挥更积极的作用。     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

Peril and promise: a survey of India's strategic relationship with Central Asia

This article outlines the growing importance of India's relations with the Central Asian region. In particular, it explores security, economic, and cultural dimensions of the relationship. Important considerations for India in dealing with Central Asia include terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism, energy security, and new export markets. Of equal gravity, however, is the nature of great power competition in the heart of Asia. The argument presented here is that India's relations with Central Asia are calculated to gain strategic depth in the region. However, relationships with Pakistan, the United States, and the Asian great powers tend to constrain these ambitions. The future direction of India's strategic relationships with Central Asia remains fluid.     

What price access to the open seas? The geopolitics of oil and gas transmission from the Trans-Caspian republics

In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was the world's largest hydrocarbon producer. The landmass over which these resources are distributed is vast and the reserves mostly landlocked. To convey these hydrocarbons to refineries and to market, the Soviets constructed the largest integrated pipeline networks in the world. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, new competing national interests have produced tensions over these energy resources and transmission corridors, with economically detrimental and often irrational consequences. In Central Asia, the post-Soviet Republics of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan produce significant amounts of hydrocarbons and export their oil and gas to or through Russian Federation territory. Russian government policy aims to continue exercising political control over these resources and to maximize Moscow's share of profits from their export. This paper examines oil and gas transmission issues in Central Asia, against a backdrop of emerging new relationships between the Russian Federation and the three post-Soviet republics, the resurgent strategic competition between Russia and the United States, China's developing power base in the region and Iran's potentially key geographic position for channelling Caspian energy supplies towards the Persian Gulf.     

Negotiating state and society: the normative informal economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus

ABSTRACT

This special issue introduces new research on informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The research presented here was conducted in Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Beijing, Guangzhou, Yiwu and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China. The following eight articles illustrate how informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus provided spaces for people across the region to negotiate state and society in the last three decades; the articles also suggest that informality should be seen as constitutive of a normative order for polities in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Informal markets and trade in Central Asia rest on three factors: the inability of the state to measure commercial transactions; markets and trade becoming places from which citizens built personalized networks that required individualized networking and oral agreements based on social relations, particularly trust; and markets being embedded within states in which clientelism frequently thrives.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

Great powers,civil society and authoritarian diffusion in Central Asia

ABSTRACT

This article draws on the authoritarian promotion literature to assess contending pressures for democratization and authoritarianism in Central Asia. Domestic actors ultimately determine receptivity to democracy promotion, but external pressures for democratic transformation or authoritarian persistence exist in Central Asia. A brief overview of authoritarian trends in Central Asia is followed by the theoretical arguments for authoritarian persistence, with special attention to the civil society dimension in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Western programmes supporting liberal democracy and civil society have encountered resistance from authoritarian leaders in Central Asia, though the evidence for direct influence from authoritarian external actors is limited. A process of indirect authoritarian diffusion, in combination with the region’s illiberal societies and Western democracy promotion fatigue, undermines the development of civil society and makes authoritarian persistence in Central Asia likely.     

中亚——日本双边、多边关系及其对中国的启示

中亚各国与日本建立外交关系以来,随着官方交往水平的提高,其伙伴关系稳步发展。1997年,"新丝路外交"这一概念总结了日本的中亚政策。21世纪伊始,新的地区伙伴开始受到中亚的欢迎。20多年间,日本与中亚的合作突出了几个特别的领域,即教育、区域经济发展、政治改革以及能源资源,其多边外交关系提升到了建立"中亚+日本"的对话机制。构建"丝绸之路经济带"的构想,反映了中国领导人对中亚政策的重要体现,反映了中国的中亚战略。日本的中亚政策,会在一定程度上给中国与中亚国家合作关系的发展造成一些影响,但是不能看作遏制中国与中亚国家合作关系的政策,应从中获得一定的启示。     

Russian Energy and the Korean Peninsula

The recent agreements concerning North Korea’s nuclear program raise possibilities for providing North Korea with energy (oil and gas) to compensate for the termination of its nuclear program and of integrating it more broadly into the Northeast Asian economy. Russia has long wanted to play the role of provider of oil and gas to North Korea and these agreements open up new opportunities for it to do so. However, serious obstacles in the nature of North Korea’s precarious economic situation and its consequences, international rivalries in Northeast Asia, and Russia’s own energy policies present serious obstacles to the realization of Russia’s ambitions as regards North Korea and as energy provider to Northeast Asia as a whole.     

Japan-Asia economic relations: Trade, investment, and the economic crisis

Japan has been and will continue to be an important economic player in the Asian region through its internationalization policy involving trade, foreign investments, aid, technical and other forms of economic cooperation. More recently, despite its own domestic problems, Japan has extended financial and other forms of assistance and support to the Asian economies which have been hit by the economic crisis. As it is in its interests that the Asian region survives and recover, Japan will indeed continue to lend a helping hand to Asia, either through unilateral or multilateral forms of assistance or both. Due to growing interdependence, Asia needs Japan and Japan needs Asia. This article analyzes Japan's economic relations with Asia. In particular, it hopes to present an overview of Japan’s involvement in Asia through trade and investments prior to the Asian economic crisis which began in July 1997. Moreover, this article provides an assessment of the crisis and identifies Japan’s responses and involvement towards the economic recovery of the crisis-hit economies in the region. The article draws from earlier versions of various papers presented at conferences and seminars in Washington, D.C. (1997), Japan and Mexico (1998), and Singapore and Thailand (1999).     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CONFLICT IN THE FERGHANA VALLEY

The Ferghana valley which is an ethnically and culturally complex region divided among three Central Asian Republics of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, witnessed a number of problems ranging from inter- ethnic tensions to border incursions; from security related complications to a number of socio- economic difficulties in the recent years. Moreover, it is also the most densely populated areas in Central Asia. Though sometimes the threat of religious extremism and intolerance in the Ferghana valley has been exaggerated yet it is difficult to completely deny their presence in the region and the obvious threat it has been posing for the entire Central Asia in future. The artificial delineation of border in the Ferghana valley which was finalized during the soviet era can be considered as one of the principle reasons behind the occurrences of various conflicts in the valley especially after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Similarly, economy also plays a pivotal role in accentuating the conflict in the region as it is found that the root cause of majority of the conflicts prevalent in the region are regarding the domination of a particular ethnic group on the economic resources of that very area. However, the rivalry between the elites of the three republics and their struggle for power also play a prominent role in the disturbances that has been taking place in Ferghana valley as the elites of the valley do not want to lose their predominant position in the newly formed political establishments of their respective republics.     

Embedded rubber sandals: trade and gifts across the Sino–Kyrgyz border

How does a group of Uyghur traders from a village in Atush (Xinjiang, China) end up with a stock of unsellable rubber sandals in Kadamjay (Batken, Kyrgyzstan), and why don’t they compete according to market principles? This article explores the social investments of the traders and their families, and reveals their behaviour to be rational, both economically and socially. It illuminates the business and daily life of Uyghur traders in southern Kyrgyzstan, an environment that is increasingly challenging and uncertain. The examination of exchange relations between their households explains why the traders cooperate as they do and also why they do not cooperate more. Economic rationales and social obligations prove to be mutually embedded. This insight expands and deepens a nascent analytical approach that recognizes social motivation for economic activities in Central Asia alongside undeniable economic incentives. This approach has much to gain from being more explicitly reconnected to classical anthropological theories of gift giving.     

欧盟援助下的中亚边界管理合作

自独立以来,中亚国家的边界管理一直无法有效保障该地区安全,也未能起到促进该地区经济发展的作用.欧盟为保证在中亚的能源和安全利益,积极推广欧盟边界一体化管理经验,主要通过BOMCA(边界管理)和CADAP(毒品行动)两个援助项目予以实施.欧盟援助下的中亚边界合作已初具规模,其最终目的是将中亚国家边界与其东部邻国边界有机连接起来,再将东部邻国边界与欧盟边界有机连接起来,形成从欧盟到中亚统一而有效的边界管理体制.     

Environmental migrations in Central Asia: a multifaceted approach to the issue

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, studies are considering Central Asia a ‘hot spot’ of climate change and a region prone to environmental migrations. Growing aridity and the shrinking of glaciers may have important impacts on food security, health, human security and infrastructure in the region and compel people to move. Drawing on the literature on environmental issues in Central Asia and on interviews conducted in the Kuhistoni-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan, this article provides a literature survey on environmental migrations in the region and positions Central Asia in the current debates within the broad environmental migrations literature. The article shows that environmental issues can stand out as an important push factor for out-migration in Central Asia, highlights the important role of the Soviet heritage of environmental management as well as of post-Soviet socio-economic transformations in understanding these issues, and discusses possible adaptation strategies.     

多重三边关系影响下的中亚地区

作者通过总结和分析中亚的态势,提出在中亚存在的多重三边关系.首先,作为中亚区域的核心三角关系:例如在上海合作组织框架下的中亚国家、俄罗斯、中国三边关系; 其次,跨欧亚区域的三边关系,包括俄罗斯、欧洲、中亚国家,其中包含俄罗斯、中国、印度等国家; 第三,全球层面的三边关系,例如:俄罗斯、美国、中国的关系,俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的关系.从长远来看,中亚地区内部的多元化以及外部的多样化共同深刻地影响这个区域的发展.作为中亚外部环境的基本形式,三边关系应以尊重国家基本安全利益为目标,并考虑在不可避免的合作与竞争的外部行为过程中采用共同的价值标准.     

安全预期、经济收益与东亚安全秩序

冷战后,东亚地区不仅没有进入一个充满紧张和冲突的时期,反而维持了相对长时间的和平状态。有关东亚安全秩序的既有解释主要强调的是体系结构或过程,但不足以解释东亚安全秩序内部的动力和机制,以及这种秩序蕴含的内在不稳定性的主要原因。本文提出了一种功能论的解释,认为美国和中国分别为东亚地区提供了安全预期和经济收益两项最为重要的公共产品,是维系当前东亚安全秩序的基础。然而,在中国崛起和美国重返东亚带来的冲击下,这两种地区性公共产品的供给脱节和供给矛盾使既有东亚安全秩序面临内在的不稳定性。为了应对这种不确定性,达到稳定周边环境和缓解崛起疑虑的效果,中国在为本地区提供稳定的经济收益的同时也需要在政治和军事方面采取积极的安全保障措施,营造东亚安全秩序的新基础。     

New Nationalism in Australia and New Zealand: The Construction of National Identities by Two Labo(u)r Governments in the Early 1970s

During the 1970s the Whitlam government in Australia and the Kirk government in New Zealand each adopted a policy of new nationalism in an attempt to come to terms with a rapidly changing and increasingly decolonised world marked by the decline of Britain as an economic and military force in the world. In each case this new nationalism prioritised local and national identities over a larger pan‐British identity. Both governments were more inward‐looking and yet also more engaged with the Asia‐Pacific region than their predecessors. They promoted their own national distinctiveness and independence, while also forging closer relationships with each other and the wider region. Both embraced a new understanding of their geographic position and repudiated the idea that Australia and New Zealand were European nations on the edge of Asia. The nationalisms they promoted were remarkably similar, yet there are important differences that reflect their different ethnic makeup and geographic position.     

Apec beyond Osaka: A balanced approach

Good ideas for economic cooperation within APEC must be adapted to Asia‐Pacific realities, says Andrew Elek, Senior Fellow at Australian National University's Australia‐Japan Research Centre. Emphasizing that “APEC will not make decisions, Asia‐Pacific governments will make decisions,” Elek asserts that APEC can draw on EU experience, while avoiding the creation of a regional bureaucracy, through a voluntary but orderly process of concerted, unilateral decision‐making. At Bogor, APEC governments agreed to reduce obstacles to economic development and integration within the region, without discriminating against the rest of the world. Elek notes that the November 1995 high‐level APEC meeting in Osaka provides the opportunity to clarify the historical Bogor vision. In this article, he proposes concrete measures for realizing APEC's potential as an open economic association.     

The bridge that divides: local perceptions of the connected state in the Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan–China borderlands

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought profound changes to the borderlands of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Xinjiang. In eastern Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan region, present-day weaknesses in territorial control of the post-Soviet state’s edges are directly wedded to borderlanders’ memories of Soviet-era practices of bordering, perceived locally as both systemically stronger and cognitively more beneficial to local lifeworlds than contemporary ‘Chinese penetration’. Across the border in Xinjiang, a formerly distant state has been brought into borderlanders’ locales and inscribed into everyday lifeworlds through novel manifestations of the state, which significantly affect cross-border interaction. By comparing how borderlanders on both sides of this frontier themselves choose to characterize border processes between ‘their’ states in the initial two decades of connections to Xinjiang, I explore how and why Kyrgyz and Tajik/Pamiri borderlanders voice strong opinions about what it is they feel has changed in these administrative-territorial homelands. Based on extensive ethnographic fieldwork on both sides of this frontier, I argue that the gradual bridging of this formerly sealed border has led to neither the development of a new trans-frontier identity nor locally established trans-frontier networks but, instead, reconfirmed borders between China and Central Asia.     

Native rhythms in the city: embodied refusal among Uyghur male migrants in Ürümchi

Over the past two decades, state-directed Han settlement and capitalist development in the Uyghur homeland in Chinese Central Asia have uprooted thousands of Uyghurs, causing them to move to the city. In this article, I explore how low-income male Uyghur migrants and Uyghur culture producers build a durable existence despite these challenges. Based on analysis of migrant responses to the Uyghur-language urban fiction and indigenous music as well as ethnographic observations of Uyghur migrants from Southern Xinjiang, I argue that indigenous knowledge provides underemployed male Uyghurs a means to refuse the alienating effects of settler colonialism and economic development. By broadening the scope of what counts as ‘resistance’ to Chinese attempts to eliminate aspects of Uyghur society, I show that ‘refusal’ can be a generative way of embodying sovereignty, particularly when confronted by structural violence.