社会资本、工业集聚与经济增长——基于中国经验的实证研究

社会资本对经济增长的重要作用,已越来越受到人们的广泛关注。笔者在对社会资本、工业集聚与经济增长相互关系进行理论分析的基础上,采用中国2000年的截面数据,实证检验各地区信任指数对地区工业集聚水平的影响。结果发现,我国各地区的信任指数对地区工业集聚具有非常显著的促进作用。在我国,社会资本通过加速工业的集聚的方式,进而促进了经济的增长。这也进一步表明,我国地区间在社会资本水平上的差异是造成我国地区经济差异的一个十分重要的原因。     

Understanding Income Inequality in China: A Multi-Angle Perspective

Economic reforms have brought about spectacular growth and vast improvements of people’s living standards in China since 1978. In the meantime, unbalanced regional growth and income inequality have become two important concerns of future development. Most available studies on income distribution have either focused on the rural population or on the urban citizens. This paper stresses the importance of adopting a multi-angle approach to fully understand income inequality in China. We first use some top-down information to form a general picture of inequality for the whole country, and then use some bottom-up household survey data to explain in detail the development of inequality over time regarding rural/urban inequality, rural inequality, urban inequality and inter-regional inequality, the relative importance of different income sources to overall inequality.     

Poverty, Inequality, and the Urban Homicide Rate: Some Unexpected Findings

The purpose of this article is to report findings concerning the relationship between poverty, inequality, and the homicide rate for a sample of 204 SMSAs. A measure of family income inequality exhibits a moderate zero order correlation with the homicide rate, but the effect becomes insignificant in the regression analysis. A second economic measure, that of the size of the poverty population, also exhibits a moderate zero order correlation with the homicide rate, but the partial effect is significant and the sign is quite unexpectedly negative. Additional unexpected results include strong partial effects for measures of Southern regional and racial composition. These findings suggest the need for reconsideration of the role of economic and perhaps subcultural factors in the explanation of urban homicide.     

Regional Differences in the Economic Correlates of the Urban Homicide Rate

This article examines regional differences in the economic correlates of the urban homicide rate. On the basis of cultural variations between the South and other parts of the country, the proportion of the population below the poverty line and the level of income inequality are hypothesized to have stronger positive effects on the homicide rate in nonsouthern than in southern cities. Regression results for a sample of 256 nonsouthern cities and a sample of 91 southern cities do not support the hypothesis for the measure of income inequality, however. The Gini coefficient of family income concentration has no significant effect in either region. In contrast, the results for the poverty measure are consistent with expectations. The proportion below the poverty line has a significant, positive effect on the homicide rate only in the nonsouthern sample. These findings suggest that the impact of economic deprivation on rates of violent crime is likely to vary appreciably depending on the general cultural context.     

Skills and regional entrepreneurship capital formation: a comparison between Germany and Portugal

Entrepreneurship capital has frequently been characterized as an important determinant of regional economic growth. Yet, we have limited knowledge about what explains why certain regions are more successful in creating entrepreneurship capital in general and in particular in technology- and knowledge-intensive sectors. In this paper, we shed light on the skill base of a region in terms of its endowment with human capital and the composition, i.e. specialization or diversity, of skills. Moreover, we look at the context in which entrepreneurship capital formation takes place by focusing on differences in the institutional infrastructures for entrepreneurship in two European countries: Germany and Portugal. Based on harmonized datasets, our results indicate important differences between the countries. Specifically, our results suggest that both specialization and diversity theories hold, and that the effects are thus contingent on regional factors.     

Patent laws and innovation in China

This paper explores whether the patent laws and intellectual property rights (IPR) system in China have resulted in innovation during the reform period. Subject to criticism on account of imperfect enforcement, the patent law system has produced a stock of patents which has grown rapidly alongside economic growth. The success rate of patent applications is similar across the country despite the considerable regional disparities in income and in the level of innovation. This paper presents a simple model of patent production in China derived from the patent law system that also considers the relevant contextual factors that could influence innovation. The main innovation input of R&D personnel is found to be a significant determinant of patents. While per capita GDP increases the propensity to innovate across all regions, notable heterogeneity exists whereby the coastal, central and interior areas are associated with different factors that produce innovation and influence the innovation process. The paper concludes that China's imperfect IPR system is nevertheless generating innovation as the country develops and hinges on the key factor of researchers.     

Ideological stratification: American beliefs about economic justice

By integrating systematically the common themes in the stratification and justice literatures, researchers have sought to advance our understanding of the role of ideologies in legitimating inequality. This paper examines how beliefs about meritocracy and opportunity in American society relate to the way people think about reducing income differences between the rich and the poor. Using a national sample of U.S. adults (N=1473), we find that the majority of the respondents believe that America has an open system where achievement is tied to individual abilities and educational opportunities. On the other hand the respondents are split in their views on meritocracy, with 50% believing that an individual's high socioeconomic position is reflective of special abilities. The role of ideologies in influencing beliefs about economic justice is direct in that persons who believe in the tenets of equal opportunity and meritocracy are not in favor of reducing income differences between the rich and the poor. Additionally, stratal differences in beliefs about economic justice are seen, with disadvantaged individuals more likely to question the legitimacy of inequality.     

Economic freedom and economic growth in India: What is the empirical relationship?

The recent moves of the Indian economy towards further opening up of the economy with less government control has brought about changes in its policy structure. The objective of this study is to test the hypothesis that greater economic freedom leads to higher levels of economic growth in a federal system like India where business regulations, taxation, and government spending differ widely across states. Pooled linear regression model is applied to categorical data containing economic freedom and its three components as independent variables, and growth rates of income per capita and gross state domestic product as dependent variable, for a panel of twenty states for three time periods, 2004/2005, 2006/2007 and 2009/2010. While examining this relationship, the variables like initial income per capita, initial literacy rate, sectoral composition, and inflation rate are taken as control. The results tend to establish the fundamental effects of economic freedom in fostering economic growth. Three individual dimensions of economic freedom namely size of government, strong rule of law, and flexible regulations governing credit, labour, and product markets are likely to exert beneficial impacts on income growth. Initial income per capita exerts a positive impact, thus proving the prevalence of regional divergence on this front. High human capital, greater share of the services and inflation exert direct impact on growth.     

Fragile Convergence: Understanding Variation in the Enforcement of China's Industrial Pollution Law

Official statistics and independent survey data show that in the last decade China has witnessed a remarkable change in its enforcement of environmental pollution violations, moving toward more formalistic and coercive law enforcement with more enforcement cases as well as higher fines. The data also show that there is considerable regional variation with coastal areas having more and higher punishments than those inland. This article explores these findings, seeking to understand the explanation and meaning of these temporal and regional variation patterns. The study shows how enforcement varies when there is a convergence of governmental, social, and economic institutional forces. The article argues that the basis for such convergence has been fragile, as national pressures have lacked consistency and local community and government support evaporates when dominant sources of income are at stake.     

货币政策的资本市场传导机制

随着资本市场的迅速发展,传统的货币政策传导渠道有所削弱,资本市场在货币政策的传导过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用.货币政策的资本市场传导机制主要体现在托宾的q效应、非对称信息效应、流动性效应、财富效应和资源配置效应等,应该对经典的IS-LM模型进行修正,从而准确反映资本市场传导机制在均衡产出水平决定过程中的作用.从目前中国的现实来看,货币政策的资本市场传导机制还存在着不少问题,严重影响了货币政策的实际效果,应该采取积极措施,逐步完善我国资本市场的货币政策传导功能,以提高货币政策的有效性.     

创建中国迈向“发达”的战略高地——21世纪我国经济特区及沿海经济发达地区的战略定位

在过去20年的改革开放过程中,经济特区曾经发挥着极为重要的作用,并带动我国沿海出现了一个较为发达的经济带。在新的历史条件下,经济特区和沿海经济带必须要重新进行自己的战略定位,在积极配合中央政府西部大开发战略的过程中,通过率先基本实现社会主义现代化的目标,在东部建立一个中国全面迈向发达的战略高地和操作平台,为21世纪中华民族的全面复兴做出更大历史贡献。     

Foreign direct investment and human capital in developing countries: a panel data approach

Theoretical studies have shown that there is a direct relationship between human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI). However, only a few available empirical studies have attempted to investigate this relationship simultaneously. Using country level panel data from 55 developing countries over the 1980–2011 period, this paper examines the interrelationship between FDI and human capital. Statistical analysis, based on simultaneous equations fixed effect estimation, reveals significant bi-directional causality between human capital and FDI, which suggests that FDI and human capital development policies need to be coordinated. FDI-led economic growth models may not be entirely suitable for all developing countries aiming to replicate the economic success of countries such as Brazil and China unless attention is also paid to human capital development through increased spending on education and training.     

Economic Growth and Structural Changes in Employment and Investments in China, 1985–94

This paper uses a shift-share method to quantify the components of economic growth and structural changes in employment and investments at both the national and regional levels. The results indicate that rapid economic growth has been characterized by significant shifts in employment and investments between industries in China. Such structural changes have a distinct regional pattern which has important policy implications regarding spatial disparities in economic growth and income. The results shed some important light on the understanding of Deng's development thought that is formalized in this paper as a multi-tier and multi-stage development strategy for a large developing economy.     

International integration and the determinants of regional development in China

Concerns about the duration of China??s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China??s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced a more moderate development. To obtain broad continuos growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (1) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (2) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China??s provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Extending the model using an unbalanced panel leads to a positive effect of the quality of governance and institutions on development.     

死刑赦免制度构建的必要性和可行性分析

死刑赦免制度是限制死刑适用的重要途径。我国古代死刑赦免适用范围较为宽泛。我国宪法规定了赦免制度,刑法和刑事诉讼法提及了赦免。从1959年至1975年我国总共进行过7次特赦,之后没再实施过。在我国经济发展、社会进步、人权保障、政治昌明的今天,构建死刑赦免制度不仅必要而且切实可行。     

我国国有资本收益若干法律问题研究

我国于1994年开始进行国有资本收益制度改革并取得了一些成效,但从实践来看,仍然存在收益分配范围过窄、收缴主体不明、比例过低等诸多问题,亟需进行相应的修改完善,使国有资本收益制度在保障国家作为国有资本投资者应当享有的权益、实现国民收入公平分配方面的作用真正得到发挥。     

The Crime Kuznets Curve

Objectives

Criminologists have long studied the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, pointing at different directions. This may reflect the conflicting theoretical predictions on the relationship between these phenomena, but also the prevailing methodological choice which focuses on linear relationships even though nonlinearities are plausible theoretically.

Methods

In this paper, we revisit the empirical relationship between economic conditions and crime by exploring potential nonlinearities. We look at flexible parametric specifications that include up to a cubic term of per capita income (or one dummy for each income quintile) and nonparametric and semi-parametric specifications (such as General Additive Models). Our results are robust to controlling for the standard socioeconomic, demographic, and policy determinants of crime, as well as to including a lagged dependent variable or state and time fixed effects.

Results

We document the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between crime and income within US states for the period 1970-2011. Crime increases with per capita income until it reaches a maximum, and then decreases as income keeps rising. This “Crime Kuznets Curve” (CKC) exists for property crime and for categories of violent crime that can be related to economic appropriation, like robbery, and is less robust for violent crimes not connected to economic incentives. We show that this pattern cannot be explained by correlated changes in economic inequality or by changes in law enforcement.

Conclusions

In addition to providing robust evidence of the existence of a CKC, our findings lay the groundwork for studies exploring the underlying theoretical mechanisms. These should go beyond income inequality or law enforcement, and should explain why the results hold more clearly for property than for violent crime. Our findings and subsequent research to understand the underlying drivers are relevant for policy, as they suggest that violent conflict cannot be tackled solely by the trickle-down forces of economic growth.

     

Fiscal Federalism in Transition: Evidence from Ukraine

Effects of fiscal federalism on redistribution and economic growth are analyzed for Ukraine, a country with large regional differences. Since there is virtually no such empirical literature, except a study of the German case, and since there are several potential flaws, the results must be interpreted in a very tentative way. We find that this relatively poor, disorganized country with little democracy has effectively redistributed income from relatively wealthy to relatively poor regions and thus promoted regional economic convergence, and even dampened the recession in both types of regions. We also find that the evidence does not reject the view that relatively poor regions used the transfers in a growth-conducive fashion, and the paper argues that the findings may have implications beyond the case of Ukraine. But the analysis is tricky, uncertain, and merely a small step to an interesting research issue.     

Fixed Investment and Economic Growth in China

This paper attempts to investigate empirically the investment-growth relationship in China. Using the exogeneity framework pioneered by Engle et al. (1983) and Engle and Hendry (1993), we find that fixed investment is a key determinant of China's economic growth, which, surprisingly, has not been rigorously examined in the literature. The super exogeneity test results suggest that there exists a robust (or structurally invariant) relationship between capital formation and income growth, thereby giving credence to policy evaluation.