在世界百年未有大变局中把握战略机遇期

观察世界大变局,需要有世界纬度的大历史视野。纵观人类历史发展进程,百年大变局的本质在于国际秩序的大发展与大调整,其核心议题是国际秩序的演进方向和发展趋势,其根本动力在于科技革命和产业革命的突破性进展以及思想和制度的伟大创新。在当前世界大发展、大变革和大调整时期,全球化进程、世界经济格局、国际权力格局、全球治理体系及治理规则、人类文明及交往模式都在发生富有历史意义的大变化。世界百年大变局和中国百年大发展同步交织、相互激荡,这是中国发展面临的重大战略机遇期。我们要"随势""顺势",也要积极"塑势"和"造势",不断拓展战略远见,增强战略定力,提升战略自信,强调战略运筹,坚持战略底线,在世界百年未有之大变局中把握中国发展的战略机遇期。     

战略机遇期与中国和平发展道路

我国正处在可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期,准确判断重要战略机遇期内涵和条件的变化,全面把握机遇,沉着应对挑战,确保2020年实现全面建成小康社会宏伟目标。     

做好重要战略机遇期的宣传思想工作

宣传思想工作战线应充分认识到抓住重要战略机遇期的意义及其对宣传思想工作的要求 ,精心组织重要战略期的宣传思想工作 ,引导广大干部群众增强抓住机遇、加快发展的紧迫感、责任感和使命感。同时 ,宣传思想战线自身也应抢抓这一难得的机遇 ,开创宣传思想工作新局面 ,从而树立良好形象 ,提高宣传思想工作的地位。     

继续抓住和用好重要战略机遇期

党的十七届五中全会强调,＂继续抓住和用好我国重要战略机遇期＂。第三次世界版图划分、科技创新、经济结构调整、国际金融危机以后世界经济格局变化给与我们重要战略机遇期,必须抓住和用好。     

抓牢战略机遇期后半程北大核心

胡锦涛总书记7月23日在省部级主要领导干部专题研讨班上发表重要讲话,对当今天下大势进行了精确研判,强调“我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期”。战略机遇期是十年前党的十六大提出来的,指的是21世纪的头二十年（2001～2020年）。而过去的十年（2003～2012年）大致属于机遇期的“前半程”。在这十年里,国际形势跌宕起伏、复杂嬗变,国际战略格局深刻调整、新陈代谢,以国际金融危机为“转折点”,     

试论当代中国政治体制改革的战略机遇期

<正>政治体制改革必须要把握战略机遇期。当代中国政治体制改革的战略机遇期应具有以下几个特点:经济发展尚处于上升势头,公众对公共权力总体上认同度较高;社会大众权利意识开始普遍生成,具有了较为广泛的参与要求;社会力量快速成长,社会阶层分化虽然具有不规范性,但并不排除通过调整而合理化的可能;政治上层对于总体局势具有可控性。     

抓住重要战略机遇期加快发展天津资本市场

一、差异化定位：我市加快发展资本市场的战略选择 鉴于天津与上海、北京以及深圳等地在全国资本市场发展格局中的差异，天津资本市场发展要走出自己的特色，即差异化定位。     

紧紧抓住可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期

党的十六大报告强调指出，纵观全局，2l世纪头一二十年，对我国来说，是必须紧紧抓住并且可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期。认真领会这一重要判断，对于准确理解和把握新世纪新阶段的历史特征和时代使命，增强全党的机遇意识和责任意识，动员全党和全国人民为全面建设小康社会而奋斗，具有十分重要的意义。     

抓住养老服务发展重要战略机遇期

“十四五”时期是养老服务发展的重要战略机遇期。顺应老年人居家就近养老期待需求,着力解决养老服务“最后一公里”问题,推动居家和社区养老服务进入高质量发展“2.0”版本到2025年,养老机构普遍具备医养结合能力。“十四五”时期,大力推进城市新建社区、新建居住(小)区配套建设社区养老服务设施,达标率达到100%。     

对中央红军长征战略性质的历史考察

对中央红军长征的性质,有人认为长征是“溃退”或“逃跑”,这显然是不能成立也不能接受的,目前史学界大多数人已接受“战略转移”之说。但笔者认为,笼统地将之称为战略转移是值得商榷的。准确地分析,以湘黔边转兵为界,应将其性质划分为两个阶段:转兵前称之为战略退却更符合实际;而转兵后则适宜称作战略转移。     

中国封建时代市场价格管理的历史考察

重视市场价格管理，是中国封建时代商业管理的重要内容。中国封建时代确立的市场价格管理方法，是和当时人们对于市场价格波动及对这种认识所作的理论分析是分不开的。许多市场价格管理的理论与方法，对今天的价格管理，仍有借鉴作用。     

当代大学生诚信问题的分析及对策

当代大学生是国家的未来和希望,其诚信状况就更值得我们关注。本文在调查分析大学生存在的诚信问题的基础上,提出了相应解决问题的策略,期望以此推动大学生思想政治教育工作的发展,努力构建和谐校园。     

论互联网时代思想政治教育面临的机遇与挑战

互联网和思想政治教育的结合,带来了思想政治教育的创新,使思想政治教育获得前所未有的优势。然而,互联网也给思想政治教育带来巨大挑战,这已被严峻的现实所证明。在新的条件下,我们必须努力掌握互联网这个新的认识工具、交流工具,特别重视互联网里的思想政治教育,在互联网中融入思想政治教育,提高受众的思想政治素质。     

论国史语境中的过渡时期总路线与党的执政能力

过渡时期总路线与党在社会主义建设时期的一系列的重大失误有着内在的联系。提出和确立重大决策需要足够的科学依据,需要经过党内外各界充分酝酿和广泛讨论,而且不应当超越当时的生产力状况,这是宝贵的历史经验。在这一系列结论方面,理性地辨析,过渡时期总路线可以提供教训意义层面的财富。历史与理性地审视和研究过渡时期总路线,对于加强党的执政能力建设具有重要意义。     

Good literature and bad history: The 9/11 commission's tale of strategic intelligence

Uncritical acceptance of the findings of the 9/11 Commission has obscured how the commission intentionally misrepresented pre-attack strategic intelligence on the threat from Al Qaeda. The commission staff used such techniques as highly selective use of material, partial truths, irrelevant references, plays on words, quotations out of context, and suggestive language leading to false inferences to portray as weak what had been a strong strategic analytical performance. The commission's misrepresentation corrupted history, damaged public understanding of the role of intelligence in counterterrorism, and helped to build support for a reorganization scheme that has made US counterterrorist intelligence worse rather than better.     

The vulnerability of point-voting schemes to preference variation and strategic manipulation

This essay measures and analyzes for a special class of point-voting schemes (the Borda method, plurality rule and the unrestricted point-voting scheme) sensitivity to preference variation (a simple change in the socially winning alternative resulting from alteration of a single voter's preferences) and vulnerability to individual strategic manipulation (a change in the winning alternative that benefits the voter whose preferences are altered). Assuming that society (n voters with linear preference orders on a finite set of m alternatives) satisfies the impartial-culture assumption, that is, each randomly selected voter is equally likely to hold any one of the randomly picked possible preference orders on the alternatives, we demonstrate:

1. for a given rule and a fixed number of voters, the sensitivity to individual preference variation and the vulnerability to individual strategic manipulation are greater, the larger the total number of alternatives.
2. For a given rule and a fixed number of alternatives, the vulnerability to individual strategic manipulation, in general, is not greater the smaller the total number of voters. Such a relationship does hold, however, if n is sufficiently large.
3. For any given combination of number of voters and number of alternatives, the unrestricted point-voting scheme is more sensitive to preference variation than the Borda method, which, in turn, is more exposed to such variation relative to the plurality rule. A similar conclusion does not hold with respect to vulnerability to individual strategic manipulation, unless the number of voters is sufficiently small.

     

Polls,coalition signals and strategic voting: An experimental investigation of perceptions and effects

Polls and coalition signals can help strategic voters in multiparty systems with proportional representation and coalition governments to optimise their vote decision. Using a laboratory experiment embedded in two real election campaigns, this study focuses on voters' attention to and perception of polls and coalition signals. The manipulation of polls and coalition signals allows a causal test of their influence on strategic voting in a realistic environment. The findings suggest that active information acquisition to form fairly accurate perceptions of election outcomes can compensate for the advantage of high political sophistication. The theory of strategic voting is supported by the evidence, but only for a small number of voters. Most insincere vote decisions are explained by other factors. Thus, the common practice to consider all insincere voters as strategic is misleading.     

The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the strategic shift to forced disappearance

Political leaders not only assess the costs and benefits of repression but also act strategically in their use of particular repression types. Choices amongst repression types depend partly upon leaders being held responsible for their particular actions. The codification of the international human rights regime indicated by broad ratification of the core International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights increases the likelihood of criminal responsibility, and political leaders who repress but want to avoid accountability for their actions respond strategically. These governments refrain from extrajudicial killing, which is easier to link to the government, relying instead on forced disappearances, a violation that is more difficult to tie to the incumbent regime. Using a sample of 194 countries from 1981 to 2009, we find that decreases in the use of extrajudicial killing in International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights member states are associated with increases in the use of forced disappearance. This indicates a substitution effect as governments attempt to maintain the benefits of repression while avoiding the costs of accountability. Our findings are robust to changes in measurement, sample size, and model specification.