Population Size,Age Structure,and Sex Composition Effects on Official Crime in Canada

Canada, along with most other Western, industrialized countries, has experienced a dramatic increase in both the overall volume and the rate of official crime, as well as significant increases in the amount of female crime since the mid-1950's. Several authors have suggested that much of this increase in official crime is related to major demographic fluctuations, such as the post-war “baby-boom.” Specifically, in this paper it is maintained that a large proportion of the increase in the overall amount of crime is due to both absolute as well as relative increases in those segments of the population which have high a priori crime rates.

Using 1957 as a base year, the volume of convictions for criminal offenders in Canada is standardized for population size, age structure, and sex composition effects. It was found that approximately one-half of the increase in volume of crime could be attributed to overall population growth. The impact of age structure and sex composition was not unambiguous, however, with the period 1958–1964 showing a greater sensitivity to these variables than the period 1965–1973.     

Crime Statistics as Constructs: The Case of Swedish Rape Statistics

Using Swedish rape statistics as a focus, this article aims to empirically describe the way in which different factors affect official crime statistics produced at the national level. It is argued that cross-national comparisons of crime levels are extremely hazardous when based on official crime statistics, since the construction rules vary widely. International comparisons of crime levels should as a rule be confined to findings of international victim surveys. The example of rape statistics in Sweden - about three times higher when compared to other countries in the European Sourcebook - is used to explain what factors can influence statistics. Statistical, legal and substansive factors are to be taken into account. The author shows that changes in statistical routines, the legal definition of rape and changes over time all influence the statistics in a substansive way. This article indicates the great extent to which crime statistics are a construct, whose appearance is very sensitive to the rules applied in the process of construction. In order to employ statistics appropriately, a thorough knowledge of the principles guiding this process is therefore essential.     

From Victim to Offender: Female Offenders of Child Sexual Abuse

Historically, women have been seen to have a much lower recorded rate of crime than men. In the area of child sexual abuse, women have figured prominently in official statistics as victims but have had virtually no official recognition as offenders. It is difficult for many people to accept that women do sexually abuse children and this can result in discounting by personnel in child protection services and police. This article discusses female offenders of child sexual abuse and the way in which these cases are processed by the criminal justice system.     

Short-term trends in crime and delinquency: A comparison of UCR,NCS, and self-report data

This study examines short-term (five- to ten-year) trends in crime and juvenile delinquency using FBI Uniform Crime Reports data on arrests and offenses known to the police, National Crime Survey data on victimization, and National Youth Survey data on self-reported delinquency. The focus is on FBI Index offenses, but less serious offenses are also considered. FBI statistics indicate generally increasing rates of crime, while NCS and NYS data indicate stable and occasionally decreasing rates. Data on the self-reported incidence of delinquency are more compatible with arrest data than are data on the self-reported prevalence of delinquency, but the two self-report measures are more compatible with one another than with arrest data. Attempts to reconcile official statistics with victimization surveys and self-report studies seem unlikely to overcome the differences among the sources when trends in crime, rather than rates of crime at a single time, are considered.     

The Sex Crime: Deterioration more Apparent than Real?

Public concern about an escalation of sex crime is unsupported by a critical analysis of official crime statistics in England and Wales. Assumptions about the inveterate recidivism of sex offenders are unconfirmed by follow-up studies. A great variety of behaviours is covered by sex crime, from the grave to the trivial. To the traditional offences of predatory aggressors, violent rapists and a small number of dangerous offenders driven by pathological emotions, are now added date rapes and harassments previously little reported. All sex incidents involving children are widely believed to cause lasting damage, despite evidence to the contrary. Female offenders and boy victims are receiving more attention. Adolescent involvement is insufficiently distinguished from paedophile offences and male homosexuals are suspected of paedophile tendencies. The development of constructive therapeutic approaches is impeded by doubts about efficacy and a punitive ethos.     

Is Chivalry Dead?

An apparent decrease in differences between the sexes in criminal behavior and law enforcement outcomes has been attributed to changes in attitudes toward sex roles and increasing female labor force participation. The research reported here addresses two related questions in this area: (1) Have there been changes over time in sex differences in the disposition of police contacts with juveniles and adults? and (2) Do any observed changes account for increases in the female crime rate? Our analysis of data from 10,723 police contacts in a mid-western city during the period 1948–1976 found a trend toward a diminished sex difference in police dispositions of juvenile and adult misdemeanors and adult felonies. There was no evidence for a similar trend for juvenile status offenses or juvenile felonies. The findings also suggest that part of the apparent increase in female crime may be due to changes in official reactions to female offenders.     

Risk assessment vs real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust

Confusing risk assessment and the prediction of individual behavior has led to false claims which, if translated into juvenile court or adult sentencing policies (selective incapacitation, for example), may lead to further erosion in public confidence in the justice system. Considerable emphasis has been placed on the consequences of false positives in the literature and in this paper. The false negative has different but equally damaging effects because the impression may be given that increasing the severity of sanctions for selected serious offenders is the solution to juvenile delinquency and adult crime. Analysis of official police records for three birth cohorts from Racine, Wisconsin, reveals that, although high-risk groups produce a disproportionate share of the delinquent and criminal behavior recorded in police reports and juveniles in high-risk groups continue into adult crime disproportionately to others, serious juvenile offenders still account for only a portion of the serious offenses that will ultimately be committed by adults. Therefore, selective incapacitation of early offenders may take only a small bite out of crime. When referrals rather than police contacts were utilized as the predictor variable, there was little difference in predictive efficiency.     

Robberies in Prague

This paper is concerned with the issue of robberies in the Czech Republic, primarily in the capital city, Prague. Statistics show that there has been a sharp rise in the number of robberies recorded in the Czech Republic following the political upheavals of 1989. In spite of this, current Czech criminology does not give proper attention to this kind of criminal activity. For this reason, the authors will attempt not only to summarise research efforts hitherto undertaken in this field and place them in a wider international context, but also to offer basic and criminologically relevant data on offenders, victims and some other significant factors, making use of official crime statistics as well as special police statistical records, including data obtained through the authors' own analysis of a sample of court files.     

Juvenile Delinquency and Victimization in Cyprus

Criminological and criminal justice research is a relatively new academic discipline in Cyprus. The current paper first examines and critiques official data on juvenile delinquency in Cyprus. As expected, the findings on delinquency and victimization gathered from self-reported surveys suggest higher rates of delinquency than those based on official statistics. This paper is based for a large part on data obtained from the International Self-reported Delinquency Study (ISRD-2), a national survey of 2385 Cypriot 12–16 year old pupils concerning a number of delinquency risk and protective factors. Those results were compared to the data collected as part of the ISRD-2 in five European Union (EU) member states, which – like Cyprus - joined the EU in 2004. This comparison focuses on data in the capitals of the six countries concerned. Research and delinquency prevention implications are discussed.     

A Comparison of Ideologically-Motivated Homicides from the New Extremist Crime Database and Homicides from the Supplementary Homicide Reports Using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations to Handle Missing Values

This study took advantage of the new open-source Extremist Crime Database (ECDB) to overcome obstacles to studying domestic far-right terrorism from a criminological perspective. In the past, exclusive definitions and inclusion criteria have limited available data on violent crimes committed by domestic far-right terrorists, and official data on violent crimes fail to capture offenders’ links to domestic far-right terrorism and ideological motivation (e.g., anti-government, anti-abortion, anti-religion). Therefore, little is known about the nature of far-right terrorist violence and how such violence is similar to and different from routine or more common forms of violence. Focusing on homicides, this study addressed why and how open-source terrorism data and official crime data can be comparatively analyzed. In doing so, we also demonstrate the utility of synthesizing terrorism and official crime data sources. Data on 108 far-right terrorist homicides were taken from the ECDB. Data on 540 common homicides (five comparison homicides for each far-right terrorist homicide) were randomly sampled from the 2000 Supplementary Homicide Reports. Using multiple imputation by chained equations and logistic regression, we imputed missing values and estimated models to compare the two homicide types on 12 different victim, offender, and event characteristics. Relative to common homicides, we found that far-right terrorist homicides were significantly more likely to have white offenders, multiple victims, multiple offenders, and to occur between strangers, and they were significantly less likely to have white victims, to be carried out with a firearm, and to occur in cities with more than 100,000 residents.     

A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

Risk-based crime statistics: A forecasting comparison for burglary and auto theft

A major criticism of official statistics on crime is that they use inappropriate bases for computing rates. Here we investigate whether computing crime rates that contain in their denominators the number of exposures to risk of a specific event (e.g., residential burglary and auto theft) provides more accurate forecasts than employing the traditional FBI denominators as a base (e.g., the number of auto thefts and burglaries per 100, 000 persons living in the United States). Single equation, macrodynamic structural models are fitted to both the “traditional” and “alternative” forms of computing auto theft and burglary rates over the twenty-seven-year period from 1947–1974, in order to determine how well they perform on statistical and substantive grounds over the estimation period. Ex-post forecasts of the 1975–1979 observed crime rates, used to gauge the accuracy of these models, reveal few differences between the two kinds of rates in terms of how well they forecast. Both types of rates forecast well with the exogenous variables employed here and lead to similar substantive conclusions. The forecasts of the “traditional” rates are consistently, but only slightly, more accurate than those of the “alternative” rates (in most cases the differences are less than 1 percent). It is argued that the criticism of official data may be overstated and that little benefit accrues from the modification of the rate base for some purposes.     

A Comparison of the Dispositions of Juvenile Offenders Certified as Adults with Juvenile Offenders Not Certified

Abstract In recent years, the transfer of juveniles to adult courts has been seen as one way of “getting tough” on juvenile crime. This study examined juvenile cases transferred to adult court, and compared them with a random sample of delinquents adjudicated in juvenile court for conduct that would constitute felonies if committed by an adult. The results indicated that juvenile cases transferred to adult court were far more likely to be pending and unresolved, as compared to the sample from the juvenile justice system. Furthermore, the results did not support the proposition that juveniles transferred to adult court would receive greater punishment than they could expect in juvenile court. Except for a small number of offenders, the prospect of transfer did not appear to provide a deterrent to crime.     

Measurement problems in official and survey crime rates

This paper analyzes sources of error in the two major methods we use to measure crime in America—official police statistics and victimization surveys. The two produce quite different pictures of the volume and distribution of crime, but it is not clear that this is because victim-based statistics are “accurate.” Each measurement procedure has its characteristic errors, some of which it shares with the other. Comparisons of official and survey data on crime are helpful in revealing the dimensions of these error terms, and they point out the analyses which must be conducted if we are to specify their exact proportions.     

Juvenile Delinquency in Central European Cities: A Comparison of Registration and Processing Structures in the 1990s

The authors trace and compare the developments in recorded juvenile delinquency in Hamburg, Prague, Cracow and Budapest from 1991-1997 and then analyse the processing and selection procedures of the various justice systems. They devote special attention to ethnic minorities within this filtering process. The most salient feature is that the crime rates and processing structures in the former socialist countries display considerable similarities. It would almost be possible to speak of a specific type of criminal justice system with a typical form of reaction. While in the West, the large number of suspects is considerably reduced during later stages of selection to a much smaller number (those actually sentenced and/or imprisoned), what the authors call a funnel model, in the East a smaller number of suspected offenders enters this selection process, but tends to remain within it and be sentenced - the cylinder model. These procedural structures have changed little in the 1990s, and there has certainly not been any increasing alignment of the Eastern systems with the Western one. Indeed, the difference has, if anything, become greater. These lower crime statistics as compared with the West - represented here by Hamburg - are, however, not only the result of equally large discrepancies between the real crime rates, but in this regard the pro-active crime prevention measures of the police, which in Hamburg have caused the inclusion of an increased number of juveniles and foreigners in the crime statistics since 1995, have also had a great effect. The research project thus clearly demonstrates the importance of interpreting crime statistics neither as a true representation nor as a distorted reflection of the activities of a criminal justice system. Instead, these statistics should be seen as reflecting specific processing procedures and methods of crime control.     

Crime in Central and Eastern European Countries in the Enlarged Europe

An enlarged European Union not only means more territory and a greater population, but also more crimes and perpetrators of crimes. The European integration brings a new challenge to criminology. Comparison of crime statistics across countries is still one of the most difficult methodological problems in criminological analyses. Countries differ in respect of their penal systems and penal policies. Reporting and statistical systems are also different. How, then, can one compare crime between European countries? Can one say where it is safer or where the police work better? Can one determine what the manner of data collection should be so that it reflects reality accurately? This article concentrates on a representation of some trends of crime in Central and Eastern European countries. A main source of information about crime are official crime statistics collected according to the methodological rules worked out by the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics. In the case of homicide, police data are confronted with vital statistics gathered by the World Heath Organization (WHO). The statistics on assault and robbery were compared, as much as possible, with the victimization data from the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS). The socio-economic context of the crime, the main circumstances of the crime statistics, which affected the interpretation of the crime trends for Central and Eastern European Countries, is presented.     

The Overrepresentation of Juvenile Crime Proportions in Robbery Clearance Statistics

Many, especially casual observers, interpret juvenile arrest statistics to bea measure of crime committed by juveniles. Others argue that clearancestatistics are a more representative index of the relative responsibility ofjuveniles. Using data from the FBI's National Incident-Based ReportingSystem, this paper explores the likelihoods of arrests for juvenile andadult robbery offenders. The findings show that juvenile robbery suspectsare 23% more likely to be arrested than adults, and 32% more likely aftercontrolling for other incident characteristics. Analyses also found anincreased likelihood of arrest in robbery incidents in which (1) the victimwas a juvenile, a female, or white; (2) the offender was white or female;and (3) the victim was injured. The presence of a weapon was not relatedto the likelihood of arrest. The differential influences of specificincident characteristics on the likelihood of arrest for juveniles andadults highlight the underlying biases of law enforcement statistics inassessing the juvenile component of crime.     

Youth hate crime offending: the role of strain,social control and self-control theories

Much of the existing research on hate crime focuses on the perspective of victims, while relatively little is known of the offenders. This study examines the prevalence of hate-motivated offending in the form of assaults and bullying, and variables that may explain some of the influences for such behaviour. It compares hate-motivated offenders to both non-offenders and offenders committing non-hate-motivated acts. Our data are based on a nationally representative youth survey collected in 2012 (n = 4,855) from Finnish students attending ninth grade (ages 15–16). It relies on three central theories in criminology: strain, social control and self-control theories. Frequent parental fighting, low parental supervision, low social control and male gender were significant factors in explaining hate crime offending. Our results suggest that the three criminological theories are relevant in the analysis of hate crime offending among Finnish youth.     

GENERAL THEORY OF SPATIAL CRIME PATTERNS*

I propose a general theory for examining the spatial distribution of crime by specifically addressing and estimating the spatial distribution of the residences of offenders, targets, guardians, and their respective expected movement patterns across space and time. The model combines information on the locations of persons, typical spatial movement patterns, and situational characteristics of locations to create estimates of crime potential at various locations at various points in time and makes four key contributions. First, the equations make the ideas involved in the theory explicit, and they highlight points at which our current state of empirical evidence is lacking. Second, by creating measures of spatial “potentials” of offenders, targets, and guardians, this theory provides a precise grounding for operationalizing spatial effects in studies of place and crime. Third, the equations provide an explicit consideration of offenders and where they might travel and, therefore, incorporates offenders into crime‐and‐place research. Fourth, these equations suggest ways that researchers could use simulations to predict stable patterns, as well as changes, in the levels of crime at both micro and macro scales. Finally, I provide an empirical demonstration of the added explanatory power provided by the theory to a study of place and crime.     

Recidivism among sex offenders: a follow-up study of 541 Norwegian sex offenders

A study of recidivism to sexual offences was conducted among Norwegian males who had received their first conviction for a sexual crime during the years 1970-1974. Five hundred and forty-one out of a total of 1,071 offenders were randomly selected and followed by means of official and public register systems until the end of August 1983. No one was contacted personally by the investigators. The recidivism rate was 12.8%, with the rapists having the highest tendency to commit new sexual crimes. Acts like incest, exploitation of someone in the custody of the perpetrator or similar felonies against so-called public morals were least likely to be repeated. Most of the repeat offenders only had one single subsequent offence, either of the same type of crime as at the first or to a less severe crime. Only a handful committed more than one repeat offence. A large number of the sexual offenders had committed others types of crimes, some prior to their first conviction for the sexual crime and some subsequent. Most of our criminally convicted males had a record of mixed criminality, in which crimes of profit and violence dominated.