浅析全球金融危机下的中国经济机会

全球金融危机背景下,中国不可避免地受到了一定影响,但整体上仍保持着经济高增长的潜力。本文探讨了金融危机给中国经济在出口产业结构调整、能源价格机制改革、企业和金融机构海外市场的拓展,以及整个国家在世界经济中地位的提升所带来的机会。     

How do fiscally decentralized federations fare in times of crisis? Insights from Switzerland

This article examines federal dynamics during times of crisis in fiscally decentralized federations using Switzerland as an example. Based on qualitative research, we analyse how the relationship between the federal government and the cantons evolved during the recent ‘Great Recession’ and ensuing financial crisis. We contend that fiscally decentralized structures, as well as the consensus-oriented institutions of the political system, protect the federal balance of power. Our results show that Switzerland indeed adapted well to the crisis of the 2009 economic recession. However, the deficit crisis has revealed challenging coordination problems, notably in the areas of fiscal equalization and corporate taxation, which have the potential to put federal stability under stress. So far, the system has adapted well and safeguarded the federal order. Due to its combination of fiscally decentralized institutions and a strong consensus culture, Switzerland has proven to be a particularly robust federation.     

金融危机中的佛教担当

在金融危机愈演愈烈之时,2009年春节佛教寺院相对于往年香火更旺。经济危机下的中国人也需要宗教的抚慰。佛教可以从教义、修持、仪轨和慈善活动等方面发挥作用,帮助人们化解因金融危机而造成的精神压力和心理问题,促进社会的稳定与和谐发展。     

新自由主义与阿根廷金融危机

本文重点分析了新自由主义的实质以及它对阿根廷经济所造成的危害,提出了必须从本国国情出发合理利用国家的经济职能,而不能完全听任市场和外资去主宰本国经济的中肯建议.     

Financial industry mobilisation and securities markets regulation in Europe

The 2007–2009 financial crisis has led to considerable debate about the role of financial industry actors in global regulatory processes. This article seeks to contribute to this debate by assessing when and why financial industry actors mobilise in order to influence securities markets regulations. Do these mobilisation patterns suggest undue influence by a small set of powerful industry actors, or do they reflect the engagement of a more diverse set of actors representing broader public interests? It is argued that variation in mobilisation patterns is a function of: (1) institutional opportunity (the openness and accessibility of regulatory politics); and (2) demonstration effects (how crises increase the salience of regulatory issues). Empirical analyses suggest that the financial crisis diminished the diversity of mobilising actors. This trend, however, is reversed when the news media disseminate information about the costs of weak financial regulation and thereby increase the salience of regulatory issues.     

Policy Inertia and the Persistence of Systemic Fragility

Many observers have diagnosed a fundamental shift in financial regulation since the 2008 crisis. In contrast, this article argues that changes have mostly been superficial. The ideas underpinning regulation have been adapted rather than overturned. Our financial system remains highly fragile, even if exceptionally loose monetary policy obscures such fragility temporarily. Governments show little appetite to correct the lopsided relationship between the financial sector and the real economy and turn the sector into a reliable engine of prosperity and stability rather than a continued source of systemic risk.     

Risk and Financial Armageddon in Ireland: The Politics of the Galway Tent

This article examines Ireland's financial crisis. Thus far explanation has focused on individual or collective administrative failure: the office(r) of financial regulation singularly failed to scrutinise the banks sufficiently: it was a matter of poor risk management. While this article would agree that the (mis)management of risk was important to how the crisis unfolded, I argue that an explanation of why the crisis emerged demands an altogether different focus. Put simply, after financial regulatory reform, a reconfiguration of risk in politics took place as the locus of decision‐making about financial risk shifted from the realm of the political/legal (Cabinet/Central Bank/Department of Finance) to the economic/legal (retail banks, shareholders/consumers). It was a critical development, one that mirrored events taking place in the UK, upon which Ireland drew experience, for now assessments about risk undertaken by the banks demanded that intervention could be justified only on an ascertainable risk, not a theoretical uncertainty (or spurious fear). The evidentiary bar for intervention was therefore raised, removing the precautionary instinct implicit in the prudential governance of Central Banks.     

Embedded policy preferences and the formation of international arrangements after the Asian financial crisis

New bilateral and multilateral arrangements emerged after the Asian financial crisis in the areas of financial assistance, financial regulation, and exchange rate stabilization. Strikingly, however, very few such arrangements emerged at the regional level. This paper argues that (1) the success of bilateral and international arrangements was the result of policy preference compatibility among East Asian countries and (2) the countries’ policy preferences can be explained as a function of their financial system features (securities-market-based or bank-credit-based) and external balance positions (capital-dependent or capital-sufficient). Although this framework cannot predict whether countries will agree on a particular policy proposal, it can explain the diversity of their proposals, the likely lines of conflict, the nature of their compromises, and why certain proposals succeed (or fail) even without the strong support (or opposition) of major powers.     

Regulatory novelty after financial crises: Evidence from international banking and securities standards, 1975–2016

Financial crises are often presented as triggers for important innovations in international regulation of financial markets, but existing evidence for this claim primarily derive from the analyses of individual initiatives, assessed against noncomparable benchmarks. In order to provide systematic evidence of financial crises' impact on international financial regulatory change, this paper develops a novel text-as-data approach to measure regulatory novelty. We use this approach to analyze the full population of international banking and securities standards between 1975 and 2016. Contrary to theoretical expectations, our empirical findings indicate rules designed by international banking and securities regulators following financial crises are on average as likely to build on existing international regulations as those designed before a crisis. We also find that international banking rules published after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis are an important exception.     

The Club Rules in Global Financial Governance

Though the list of reforms following the onset of the financial crisis is long, we should resist the temptation to view the emerging regulatory framework in terms of a paradigm shift. Many key features of the system, including the privileged position of financial institutions, remain unchanged. This is not merely due to obstruction or capacity shortcomings but can be explained by considering the sources of ideas and the governance setting. Ideas and policy programmes for reform were generated by a policy community also responsible for shaping the pre‐crisis governance framework. Moreover, the ideas and preferences of these players are moulded by their transnational interactions and the club‐like mechanisms in place for determining what (and who) is to be included in discussions. These settings have produced policy programmes that helped address the immediate, ‘fast‐burning’ elements of the crisis, but have so far failed to put together a comprehensive reform programme.     

全球金融动荡背景下中国证券行业发展趋势

美国"次贷危机"以惊人的速度愈演愈烈,震惊了全球金融行业。在短短几个月的时间内,华尔街排名前五名的投行依次倒下,或倒闭,或被收购,甚至收归国有。此次发生在大洋彼岸的金融危机对我国证券行业具有重要的参考意义。本文从本次危机成因分析出发,结合国内证券行业的历史及现状,展望今后我国证券行业的发展趋势。     

理性认识金融危机下我国中间阶层的作用

在全球性金融危机中,中国承受着巨大压力,一部分人认为,作为社会中流砥柱的中间阶层能够以其强劲的消费拉动中国经济,从而维护社会的稳定与发展。文章认为,在金融危机下,这不是一种理性的对待中间阶的态度,并从经济、政治和社会责任感三个角度,分析了在当前环境下这种观点是值得商榷的,随后,从不能正视中间阶层的现状,忽略中国社会发展的实情以及对中间阶层理解的偏差性等方面分析了持这种观点的原因。     

金融危机对我国经济增长的影响及应对策略

金融危机通过贸易领域传导至我国,对我国出口、投资、消费产生了较大的影响,从而抑制了我国的经济增长。我国经济增长除受到外因作用而放缓之外,还受到我国自身经济结构不合理、发展方式不科学的制约。面对金融危机的挑战,政府应加快推进经济结构调整、切实转变经济发展方式,促使消费、投资、出口协调拉动经济增长,以保持我国经济健康平稳可持续增长。     

Federal dynamics in times of economic and financial crisis

The global economic and financial crisis is a challenge for all governments, but particularly for federal states because divided and/or shared territorial powers make federations susceptible to coordination problems in fiscal policy making. This article explores the effects of the ongoing crisis on federal relations. Three kinds of problems that may become the cause of federal tensions and conflicts are evoked: opportunism of subgovernments, centralisation and erosion of solidarity among members of the federation. Our analysis of fiscal policies and federal conflicts of 11 federations between 2007 and the present reveals three kinds of coordination problems: shirking in the use of federal government grants, rent‐seeking in equalisation payments, and over‐borrowing and over‐spending. Our results show that shirking remained limited to few cases and occurred only in the first part of the crisis. However, rent‐seeking and over‐borrowing and over‐spending led to a reduction of solidarity among subgovernments and to increased regulation of the fiscal discretion of the members of the federation. Subsequently, tensions in federal relations increased – although only in one case did this challenged the federal order.