The politics of mortgage credit expansion in the small coordinated market economies

Abstract

Recent contributions to the comparative political economy literature claim that liberal market economies are vulnerable to asset booms and busts because of financial deregulation, shrinking welfare states and a political ideology emphasising financial self-sufficiency. This article examines the rapid expansion of mortgage lending in three coordinated market economies (CMEs): Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands. This expansion is puzzling given that all three countries are CMEs with generous welfare states. Yet the pattern of mortgage lending resembles the Anglo-Saxon or liberal market economies (LMEs) more than other CMEs. The article argues that mortgage bubbles in the small CMEs emerged as the unintended outcome of pairing neoliberal programmes to expand home ownership with collectivist housing institutions. This resulted in supply restrictions and rising property values which saddled households with extraordinarily high mortgage debts. In short, mortgage credit bubbles are not unique to Anglo-liberal welfare states and may have different origins.     

Covering the private parts: the (re-)nationalisation of housing finance

Abstract

Is state power or control over financial markets really withering? Most narratives/analyses of financialisation see a growing penetration of private capital into everyday life that runs parallel to the increasing power of private financial capital over state policy. Yet housing finance – mortgages – sits at the centre of banking, and banking sits at the centre of the financial system. Large-scale mortgage markets only function where the state wraps around the banking system to remove maturity risks and to limit excessive credit creation. Partial deregulation in the 1990s and 2000s created a crisis that states resolved by re-nationalising much of mortgage finance. This renewed and overwhelming state presence suggests that financialisation is a state-driven story, and that private financial power, stability and instruments require state support above and beyond contract enforcement and prudential regulation.     

The Federal Impact on Early Postwar Suburbanization

ABSTRACT

Researchers agree that, in Canada and the United States, federal policy with respect to mortgage finance encouraged suburbanization in the early postwar period. However, direct evidence has been lacking. Unique mortgage file data for 1951 for two Canadian cities, Hamilton, Ontario, and Vancouver, British Columbia, make it possible to assess this claim, and related claims. They show that the impact of federal mortgage assistance was similar in direction in both cities, but much more striking in Hamilton: federal involvement encouraged suburbanization, reinforced existing broad patterns in the social geography of the city, and increased the amount of income segregation at the scale of specific neighborhoods and suburban subdivisions. The broad generalizations that previous researchers have made about the impact of federal mortgage policy are confirmed, but the magnitude of that impact could vary enormously and cannot be assumed in particular cases.     

The reverse mortgage as an asset management tool

Abstract

Reverse mortgages are usually seen as a vehicle for increasing the income of poor, elderly households. This perspective, coupled with the relatively slow growth of reverse mortgage programs, has led some observers to question the growth potential of the reverse mortgage market. This article presents a more expansive view of reverse mortgages as a financial tool for tapping housing equity for various purposes and at various stages in the life cycle.

Three market segments for reverse mortgages are discussed: elderly persons living alone, other elderly households, and non‐elderly households. Potential uses include turning housing equity into personal human capital investment accounts, enabling children to provide care for their disabled parents, funding elderly households’ long‐term care insurance, and sustaining consumption. Recent progress in product development and availability and political pressures to find private financing for health and long‐term care suggest that the reverse mortgage market has considerable growth potential.     

Evidence and Actions on Mortgage Market Disparities: Research,Fair Lending Enforcement,and Consumer Protection

ABSTRACT

In this article, we present an overview of the research on discrimination in mortgage underwriting and pricing, the experiences of minority borrowers both prior to and during the financial crisis, and federal efforts to mitigate foreclosures during the crisis. We next discuss the history of legal cases alleging disparate treatment of minority borrowers, and recent cases alleging disparate impact in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Inclusive Communities decision. Using these discussions as a background, we examine and discuss mortgage regulations issued by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau following the financial crisis, describe recent developments in the FinTech industry and explore the implications for fair lending policy and minority borrowers more generally. Finally, we draw conclusions and make recommendations for improving the mortgage market outcomes of minority borrowers and increasing minority borrowers’ access to credit.     

The resurgence of denial rates for home loans: an examination of disparate effects on groups of applicants in the upper Midwest

Mortgage application denial rates have increased since 2002, but it is unclear to what extent this increase in denials has differentially affected “non-traditional” mortgage applicants that do not resemble “traditional” white, non-Hispanic opposite-sex couple applicants. This article uses augmented Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to investigate disparities in denial rates between traditional and non-traditional mortgage applicants between 2004 and 2008 in the Federal Reserve Bank's ninth district. We find evidence that lenders became more cautious in lending decisions between 2004 and 2008, treating applicants with the same incomes and requested loan amounts differently over time. After accounting for a variety of loan, applicant, lender, and environmental characteristics, we find that many “non-traditional” applicant groups across the ninth district experienced persistently higher mortgage application denial rates when compared to white, non-Hispanic opposite-sex couples. In some cases, the gap in the mortgage application denial rates between non-traditional and traditional applicants has actually increased over time.     

What makes community reinvestment act agreements work? A study of lender responses

Abstract

One response to the incentives provided by the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 (CRA) has been for lenders and community groups to enter into CRA agreements, which involve pledges to provide prescribed levels of service to targeted neighborhoods. This article examines whether lenders actually change their behavior after entering into these agreements.

Using data on CRA agreements and on mortgage lending, we find that institutions increase their lending activity with each year an agreement is in force and that increased lending persists after an agreement expires. Additional analysis shows that agreements that include provisions for mortgage counseling and technical assistance are associated with increased targeted lending. By contrast, agreements with provisions requiring small business counseling and technical assistance and periodic meetings by review committees are associated with somewhat depressed lending levels. Further research is needed to draw definitive implications from this second set of results.     

“The Color of Money” revisited: Racial lending patterns in Atlanta's neighborhoods

Abstract

In 1988, the Atlanta Journal‐Constitution published “The Color of Money,” an influential series examining mortgage redlining in Atlanta. The articles documented wide lending disparities between white and black neighborhoods of similar income levels. Given sweeping changes in housing finance since 1988, we seek to determine whether Atlanta's racial geographic disparities in mortgage lending have changed.

Analysis of 1992 to 1996 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data reveals slight improvement. Atlanta's depository lenders made 4.2 times as many conventional home purchase loans per owner‐occupied unit to middle‐income white neighborhoods as they did to middle‐income black neighborhoods; a decade earlier, this ratio was 5.2. Nondepositories post lower ratios, particularly for Federal Housing Administration‐insured loans, but this market segment raises concerns because of potential abuses. By the indicator of most enduring theoretical and policy interest—conventional home purchase lending by depositories—the patterns that aroused concern a decade ago are still evident today.     

Innovation and the cost of mortgage credit: A historical perspective

Abstract

Since the inception of U.S. institutional mortgage lending in the 1830s there have been major changes in mortgage instruments, the delivery system, and funding sources. Some of these changes qualify as innovations that have lowered the cost of credit and increased its availability. This article divides the history of U.S. mortgage finance into three periods and identifies the source and type of major innovations.

The “Origins” period, from 1831 to 1931, included the development of many mortgage lending institutions and instruments. The second era, “A Wonderful Life,” featured a government‐supported special circuit that dominated mortgage finance from 1932 to 1981 and witnessed development of mortgage‐backed securities. The current era, “A Brave New World,” features a new system of credit delivery dominated by specialized institutions and technology. In it, application of automated underwriting and artificial intelligence may have far‐reaching effects on the market and the accessibility of low‐income households to mortgage credit.     

Comment on “Does the Likely Demographics of Affordable Housing Justify NIMBYism?”

Abstract

Automated underwriting (AU) systems have become the tool of choice in mortgage lending decisions. While these systems provide significant benefits to mortgage originators and investors, questions have been raised about their impact on underserved populations. The questions focus on the relative accuracy of AU compared with manual underwriting and whether AU has increased the flow of mortgage credit to underserved consumers.

Using information from Freddie Mac's Loan Prospector AU service, we provide statistics useful in examining these issues. The data strongly support our view that AU provides substantial benefits to consumers, particularly those at the margin of the underwriting decision. We find evidence that AU systems more accurately predict default than manual underwriters do. We also find evidence that this increased accuracy results in higher borrower approval rates, especially for underserved applicants.     

The ongoing experiment with “regulation from below”: Expanded reporting requirements for HMDA and CRA

Abstract

The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) were enacted in the 1970s to curb redlining, the discriminatory lending practice whereby financial institutions refuse to make mortgage loans to certain neighborhoods based on the racial composition of those areas or the age of their housing stock. HMDA and CRA implicitly sanctioned an important role for local citizen monitors, whose “regulation from below,” as it has been termed, was believed to be needed to augment the formal enforcement apparatus. In 1989, Congress amended both of these laws by expanding publicly available information on the lending practices of financial institutions. The paper reviews the early experiences with the new requirements and suggests some of the factors likely to determine whether grassroots organizations seek further reforms.

While the use of “de facto” bank examiners succeeded more than many knowledgeable observers expected, it remains to be seen whether community‐based watchdogs can keep pace with the rapidly changing environment for CRA and for banking in general. As for the 1989 amendments to the Acts, it is still too early to determine the full impact of these changes on community lending.     

Racial Dynamics of Subprime Mortgage Lending at the Peak

Subprime mortgage lending in the early 2000s was a leading cause of the Great Recession. From 2003 to 2006, subprime loans jumped from 7.6% of the mortgage market to 20.1%, with black and Latino borrowers receiving a disproportionate share. This article leveraged the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data and multinomial regression to model home-purchase mortgage lending in 2006, the peak of the housing boom. The findings expose a complicated story of race and income. Consistent with previous research, blacks and Latinos were more likely and Asians less likely to receive subprime loans than whites were. Income was positively associated with receipt of subprime loans for minorities, whereas the opposite was true for whites. When expensive (jumbo) loans were excluded from the sample, regressions found an even stronger, positive association between income and subprime likelihood for minorities, supporting the theory that wealthier minorities were targeted for subprime loans when they could have qualified for prime loans. This finding also provides another example of an aspect of American life in which minorities are unable to leverage higher class position in the same way as whites are. Contrary to previous research, model estimates did not find that borrowers paid a penalty (in increased likelihood of subprime outcome) for buying homes in minority communities.     

Transit supportive home loans: Theory,application, and prospects for smart growth

Abstract

This article discusses mortgage lending programs aimed at lower‐income buyers looking to purchase homes in compact, transit‐accessible neighborhoods. Unlike traditional lending formulas, the transit supportive home loans consider the transportation cost savings from living in transit‐friendly neighborhoods and applies these savings to a larger mortgage calculation. However, little has been published positioning the concept against the broader goals of smart growth, describing the application of the product, or commenting on its prospects.

The first part of this article therefore draws heavily from the literature on smart growth to present the theoretical foundations of the transit supportive home loans and how they address growth management program goals. The second part describes the application of the concept, and the third examines the prospects for this tool and briefly comments on circumstances likely to bedevil its widespread adoption or overall impact.     

Responding to the foreclosure crisis

Abstract

Regional economic downturns, speculation on skyrocketing home prices, and rampant unfair and deceptive mortgage lending practices have combined to create the perfect foreclosure storm in America. More than 2 million foreclosures are expected to occur during the next 12 to 18 months. Common to all three of these contributing factors is the reality that effective regulation of the mortgage market would have greatly limited damage from foreclosures.

This article traces the origins of the subprime market crisis and the resulting impact of foreclosures on the housing market, minority households, and the economy. The article also reviews the effectiveness of current interventions to mitigate or limit foreclosures and recommends broader solutions to help families maintain their homes.     

Racial/ethnic differences in housing outcomes for first‐time,low‐income home buyers: Findings from a National homeownership education program

Abstract

Federal housing policies aimed at making homeownership more accessible through education and affordable lending have been successful in raising the homeownership rate among minorities. By marketing homeownership to underserved populations and helping them overcome financial and informational obstacles, such programs might be expected to promote equality in housing outcomes, including housing quality, neighborhood composition, and neighborhood conditions, for minority homeowners.

This article examines the experience of participants in a national home‐ownership education program. While the transition to homeownership has been associated with modest progress, it does not overcome persistent disparities in housing quality. Homeownership appears to lead to poorer neighborhood conditions for all lower‐income buyers—not just minorities—and may be exacerbating social and spatial isolation rather than helping to overcome it. Differences in neighborhood outcomes, however, may be due to locational preference rather than discrimination in housing and mortgage markets.     

Comment on Elvin K. Wyly and Daniel J. Hammel's “Islands of Decay in Seas of Renewal: Housing Policy and the Resurgence of Gentrification"—Gentrification resurgent?

Abstract

Gentrification is a procyclical process by which certain inner‐city neighborhoods are revitalized to meet the demands of professional households. It is confined to cities with substantial central business district office growth and with housing markets characterized by substantial suburb‐to‐inner city filtering. The process remains limited in scale, and available data do not permit a judgment as to whether changes in mortgage lending have changed the nature of the process.     

Islands of decay in seas of renewal: Housing policy and the resurgence of gentrification

Abstract

For many observers, the recession of the early 1990s signaled the end of what Berry called islands of renewal in seas of decay. In the past decade, however, shifts in mortgage finance have intersected with developments in assisted housing to alter the links between gentrification and housing policy. In this article, we use field observation, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, and HOPE VI plans to analyze the resurgence of gentrification in eight U.S. cities.

Between 1992 and 1997, gentrified neighborhoods attracted conventional homepurchase mortgage capital at a rate that grew at more than 2.3 times the suburban rate. Logit models confirm that mortgage capital favors gentrified neighborhoods even after controlling for applicant and loan characteristics, suggesting a new relationship between mortgage lending and neighborhood change. In some cities, gentrification has surrounded islands of decay and poverty with landscapes of renewal     

Home mortgage lending by applicant race: Do HMDA figures provide a distorted picture?

Abstract

The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975 (HMDA) was designed to further fair access to mortgage credit and requires lenders to report such information as location, loan amount, income, and race and sex for each application. However, race is missing in a significant proportion of applications taken by mail or phone. Given the widespread use of HMDA data by lenders, community groups, researchers, and regulators and the importance of mortgage lending as a public policy issue, the strengths and shortcomings of these data must be clearly understood.

The main findings are that reported approval rates by race are significantly overstated for refinance and home improvement loans, while home purchase loans are little affected. A review of trends in how race is reported and in the technology of mortgage lending indicates that missing data on race will become a bigger and bigger problem in the near future.     

The legacy of the home owners’ loan corporation

Abstract

The appraisal practices of the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) and its Residential Security Maps are often cited as major contributors to later redlining and the perpetuation of segregation through unequal access to mortgage credit. This article focuses on whether there was a relationship between the HOLC's neighborhood assessments and mortgage outcomes.

Our results indicate that the agency was clearly instrumental in restructuring the home finance system and permitting far greater access to homeowner‐ship, but it is important to consider other factors in examining the HOLC's legacy in the reshaping of the mortgage market and the operation of the financial sector after the Great Depression. Specifically, the issue of increasing segregation in older cities in the late 20th century remains inextricably linked to both the shifting nature of real estate finance after the HOLC era and the demographic, economic, and residential changes affecting U.S. cities.