Business as usual

The tech stock crash of 2000 discredited the new economy as business model. This article introduces a journal special issue which takes up the challenge of putting new economy developments into this post-crash perspective and establishing long-run continuities, without discounting the importance of what happened. This article opens the debate by highlighting two themes in the articles that are collected together in the special issue: first, it discusses what was and is the new economy in the USA; second, it examines the relevance and resonance of the new economy in Europe.     

新时代意识形态安全态势的变化向度与应对策略——深刻领会习近平关于意识形态安全重要论述的精髓要义

意识形态领域是政治安全的前沿阵地,意识形态安全关乎全局,是总体国家安全的重要基石。意识形态安全形势在与国际形势和社会转型的链接中不断发展变动,当前,我国发展进入风险挑战不断积累甚至集中显露的时期,意识形态领域的安全态势发生深刻变化。党的十八大以来,习近平总书记审视治国理政全局,科学标识意识形态安全的战略定位,深刻洞察意识形态安全态势的变化向度和未来走向,为新形势下进一步维护意识形态安全提供了思想指引和实践遵循。新时代,应以习近平总书记关于意识形态安全的重要论述为指导,积极探索维护意识形态安全的着力点,构建牢固的意识形态安全防线,从而为维护国家长治久安和社会稳定发展提供坚实支撑。     

New economy housing markets: Fast and furious—but different?

Abstract

This article explores the effects of metropolitan industrial structure on housing market outcomes. Housing prices in new economy metropolitan areas are found to be higher, peakier, and more volatile than in old economy markets. Homeownership rates are found to be lower in new economy metropolitan areas, while crowding is higher. Although the distribution of housing values, costs, and rents was more equal in new economy markets, the cause would seem to be differences in area income levels, with poorer metropolitan statistical areas having greater inequalities.

Regression analysis is used to identify the contribution of traditional supply and demand factors, such as job growth, income, and residential construction, as well as new economy indicators, to housing market outcomes. Rather than being fundamentally different, new economy housing markets are found to be faster and more extreme versions of traditional housing markets.     

Do political budget cycles work? A micro-level investigation of pre-electoral budgeting and its electoral consequences

One of the most puzzling empirical patterns in political economy is the disconnect between the regular use of fiscal instruments for re-election purposes by incumbents (otherwise known as political budget cycles) on the one hand and their relative electoral ineffectiveness on the other. This article engages with this puzzle by shifting the analysis from the macro to the micro-level. It shows that when taking into account individual-level heterogeneity in the electoral response, one can gain a more nuanced understanding of the political consequences of pre-electoral budgeting. By relying on a set of multi-level random-effects regressions using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral System surveys, it points to two such sources of heterogeneity: social status and ideology. In particular, higher status individuals are considerably less responsive to pre-electoral deficits, though the effects depend on the composition of fiscal measures. Results for ideology are somewhat less consistent across different operationalizations of ideology as well as model specification.     

How do established voters react to new parties? The case of Italy, 1985–2008

The Italian party system largely collapsed in the early 1990s, providing us with a natural experimental situation in which voters were confronted with new parties – indeed, with an entirely new party system. How did they react? This paper develops a number of expectations on the basis of existing theory and tests these expectations using a dataset consisting of election studies conducted in Italy between 1985 and 2008. We find that a new party system causes confusion as to where parties stand in left-right terms, making it difficult for voters to make their choices on the basis of ideological cues. The confusion is greatest among older voters – those already set in their habits of voting, but only the very oldest cohorts (containing voters over 60 years old) are significantly debilitated.     

Consumer Preference for Neotraditional Neighborhood Characteristics

Abstract

Much research on residential mobility relies on examining people's choices within the context of what is available in a local housing market. However, it is difficult to determine the demand for alternative housing or neighborhood types that may not be available or are available only in limited quantities. Hence, the market may not accurately reveal consumer preferences for such alternatives.

We estimate a discrete choice model of neighborhood choice by using data from a choice‐based conjoint analysis survey that allows us to vary characteristics experimentally. The model is used to determine consumer preferences for neotraditional neighborhood design features, including neighborhood layout, housing density, surrounding open space, and commuting time, while holding other characteristics, including school quality and neighborhood safety, constant. The results indicate that the neotraditional design with higher density is less preferred on average, but that niche marketing, additional open space, or other amenities can overcome its negative effects.     

Fiscal consolidation under electoral risk

The European debt crisis has uncovered serious tension between democratic politics and market pressure in contemporary democracies. This tension arises when governments implement unpopular fiscal consolidation packages in order to raise their macroeconomic credibility among financial investors. Nonetheless, the dominant view in current research is that governments should not find it difficult to balance demands from voters and investors because the economic and political costs of fiscal consolidations are low. This would leave governments with sufficient room to promote fiscal consolidation according to their ideological agenda. This article re‐examines this proposition by studying how the risk of governments to be replaced in office affects the probability and timing of fiscal consolidation policies. The results show that governments associate significant electoral risk with consolidations because electorally vulnerable governments strategically avoid consolidations towards the end of the legislative term in order to minimise electoral punishment. Specifically, the predicted probability of consolidation decreases from 40 per cent after an election to 13 per cent towards the end of the term when the government's margin of victory is small. When the electoral margin is large, the probability of consolidation is roughly stable at around 35 per cent. Electoral concerns are the most important political determinant of consolidations, leaving only a minor role for ideological concerns. Governments, hence, find it more difficult to reconcile political and economic pressures on fiscal policy than previous, influential research implies. The results suggest that existing studies under‐estimate the electoral risk associated with consolidations because they ignore the strategic behaviour that is established in this analysis.     

Blairite Modernisation and Countryside Policy

When New Labour came to power in 1997, the party's manifesto had little to say about rural policy, beyond a proposal to allow a free vote to ban hunting with dogs and a commitment to establish a right to roam—essentially 'old Labour' and symbolic issues. However, in its early years the Blair government became drawn more heavily into rural policy reform and increasingly came to see rural issues as a territory on which its grand project of national renewal and modernisation could be played out. This article reviews the rise and fall of rural policy under New Labour, and charts how the aftermath of the 2001 foot and mouth disease crisis eventually saw rural issues marginalised within government. It shows how the Blair governments' strange and unexpected excursion into reforming rural and agricultural policy provides a case study of the rise and fall of modernisation more generally.     

Choice in Public Services: Crying 'Wolf' in the School Choice Debate

Choice, diversity and personalisation have been key to the New Labour project in public services. With the emergence of a reinvigorated Conservative party as a credible electoral threat, and the end of the Blair era, it seems appropriate to consider the continuing viability and longevity of the New Labour public service project. In this article, I approach the issue of choice in public services through an examination of the long-running controversy over choice in the English secondary school system. I argue that the opponents of choice have been reluctant to engage with the notion of choice in public services due to concerns over the supposed negative effect that consumer choice has on the equity and quality of service provision. This paper aims to challenge the claim that any element of choice in education necessarily has deleterious effects on social justice. I argue that the case against school choice has not been decisively made and that school choice can, in principle, form part of a socially progressive educational project by redistributing power to service users and helping to maintain popular support for public provision of education.     

Brothers’ Keepers?

Relying on rarely analyzed public opinion data from the 1930s and early 1940s, we take issue with the notion popular in contemporary liberal circles that the New Deal era represented a period of expansive commitment to the security and well-being of the poor and politically disenfranchised. At least where the public is concerned—as opposed to the progressive policy makers in the Roosevelt administration—the jobless were regarded with suspicion, immigrants should be forced to “go home,” women belong in the kitchen not on the shop floor. The harsher the economic conditions (by state), the more conservative were the public attitudes. Hence New Deal legislative victories accrued despite rather than because of public support.

略论中国人口与经济发展战略问题

人口问题是一个世界性的问题。千百年来,人们不断地思考人类自身数量规模的扩大与地球所能够提供的资源如何协调的问题。在这个问题一直困扰着各国政府和学者们的同时,人们又观察到人口规模与经济发展之间存在一些经验性的规律性,即人口规模大的地方往往比较贫穷。这样一来,人口规模问题与反贫困问题交织在一起。中国历来是一个人口大国,这一背景因素已经长期成为理解中国经济社会发展、运行的重要因素。本文通过对世界以及中国人口数据的整理,探讨了新形势下我国人口与发展之间的关系以及存在的问题,并提出了一些有针对性的对策建议。     

The EU’s Emissions Trading System,Part 2: A Political Economy Critique

This is part 2 of a paper that revisits the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in an attempt to take stock of how the system has worked and evaluate it from the standpoint of radical political economy. In part 1 of the paper the basic design, the workings and the outcomes of the scheme were discussed with critical perceptiveness. In particular, the paper revealed the unsatisfactory results of the scheme (even in its own proclaimed aims), including allowances surplus, allowance trades for pure financial profit, low and volatile prices of allowances, windfall profits, extensive use of Kyoto project-based credits, and several malfunctions and instances of fraud. These findings set the ground for part 2 of the paper, which offers a critical assessment of ETS, proclaimed by mainstream analyses as the major vehicle for the transition to a low-carbon economy. In particular, the complications and instabilities created by the increasing financialization of the carbon market are exposed. Moreover, the ineffectiveness of the ETS as a catalyst for investments in clean energy technologies, especially in times of economic crisis, is substantiated. Since the deep embeddedness of the scheme in capitalism risks climate sustainability, the analysis concludes that a more radical transformation of society with an eco-socialist orientation is needed.     

The EU’s Emissions Trading System,Part 1: Taking Stock

This is part 1 of a paper that revisits the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in an attempt to take stock of how the system has worked and evaluate it from the standpoint of radical political economy. The paper briefly discusses the basics of the scheme, including its design as a financial instrument and its performance during the first trading period (2005–2007). It then moves to elaborating on the workings of the scheme during phase 2 (2008–2012) and on the initiation of phase 3 (2013–2014). This analysis discusses the adjustments and the extensions of the scheme, compliance results and allowance trades and prices with a critical eye. The paper reveals the unsatisfactory results of the scheme (even in its own proclaimed aims), which include allowances surplus, allowance trades for pure financial purposes, low and volatile price of allowances, windfall profits, extensive use of Kyoto project-based credits, and several malfunctions and instances of fraud. These findings set the ground for part 2 of the paper which offers a critical assessment of ETS from the standpoint of radical political economy, putting emphasis on the needs and interests of the unprivileged working people.     

Conflict, Fusion, or Coexistence? The Complexity of Contemporary American Conservatism

This paper draws on an original survey and on the 2004 NES to explore the complexity of contemporary American conservatism. In both datasets, we find evidence that economic and cultural conservatism stand as distinct strands of conservative attitudes. The original survey also allows us to further explore the role of beliefs about the market in economic conservatism. In the end, we find little support for either liberal hopes of fundamental ideological conflict among conservatives or conservative hopes of ideological fusion. Instead, our data suggests that a particular type of ideological coexistence among economic and cultural conservatives is the norm.

Strategic Thinking,Shared Meaning‐Making and the Interpretive Turn in Policy ‐ A Case Study

Governments' demands for results in a complex and rapidly changing policy environment call for more strategic and nuanced ways of approaching policy. Drawing on the work of the British interpretive ‘turn’, evidenced in the network governance literature and the differentiated polity critique of Westminster narratives, and of Liedkta on strategy as design, this paper suggests that shared strategic narratives, more consciously applied to policy development and implementation, could deliver better results; that consensus from shared meaning‐making may have depth, and that it could emphasise the transformative over the conservative forces of individuals' traditions and beliefs. Data for the paper came from a micro‐study on the implementation of SmartGate automated border processing system in New Zealand.     

Socialised to think in terms of left and right? The acceptability of the left and the right among European voters

The left-right dimension plays a crucial role in how political scientists think about politics. Yet we know surprisingly little about the extent to which citizens are able to position themselves on a left-right dimension. By analysing non-response on left-right self-identification question from seven waves of the European Social Survey (N = 295,713), this study demonstrates that citizens’ ability to position themselves on the left-right dimension depends on the political system they live in and its history. Citizens in countries with lower levels of elite polarization place themselves on a left-right dimension less often, this difference is partiularly pronounced for citizens with high levels of political interest. Citizens in countries with a recent authoritarian history were unable to place themselves on the left-right dimension more often. These findings show the importance of political socialization for left-right self-identification.     

How Bush bungled Asia: militarism,economic indifference and unilateralism have weakened the United States across Asia

Abstract

Criticism of the Bush administration's policies in East Asia is hardly common fare. Roseate colors certainly pervade the picture painted by defenders of Bush's policies toward Asia who argue that relations between the US and that region have never been better. This paper shows to the contrary that the Bush administration politicized wide swaths of public policy, including foreign relations, in an effort to create a permanent Republican electoral majority. That effort created a host of failures in America's Asian relations. The article focuses on three central problems: excessive militarization of American foreign policy; economic mismanagement; and a unilateralism that distanced the US from the rising Asian regionalism. The failures are not irreversible however and a change in administration has the potential to revitalize cross Pacific ties.