The interaction of monetary policy and wages

This paper focuses on the interaction of monetary policy and wage formation in economies with strong labor unions. Government and unions are viewed as endogenous utility maximizers and the macroeconomic consequences of their strategic interaction are explored with the aid of some elements of simple game theory. Specifically, it is shown (a) how labor unions adjust wages to prices so as to maximize their utility following changes in monetary policy; (b) how the effectiveness of monetary policy is circumscribed without necessarily being nullified by the utility-maximizing reactions of unions; and (c) how the interplay of government and unions can create a persistent tendency towards inflation and unemployment simultaneously.     

The Postcapitalist Transition: Policy Implications for the Left

The postcapitalism thesis asserts that open source and collaborative non-profit organisations represent a new, non-market sector in which the profit motive and monetary exchange no longer drive economic activity; in Marxist political economy terms, they are a new means for suppressing the law of value . Information technology has produced four systemic dysfunctions, limiting capitalism’s ability to function as a complex adaptive system: the zero marginal cost effect, the tendency to delink work from wages, positive network effects, and information asymmetries. In response, in addition to the traditional remedies of social democracy for a stagnant neoliberal economic model, left parties must adopt a programme of transition: aggressively breaking up technological monopolies; promoting universal basic income and basic service solutions; outlawing rent-seeking business models; and promoting data democracy.     

如何治理“滞胀”

金融危机后,我国经济面临着诸多新问题,其中包括"滞胀"风险。"滞胀"的成因包括国际商品市场上原材料价格上涨、经济结构转型成本上升等因素。在我国传统的调控体系中,由原材料、能源价格上涨引起的"滞胀"可以通过降低工资来应对,但工资上涨恰恰又是诱发我国"滞胀"的原因之一,而且工资上涨将是中国今后相当长一段时期内的常态。因此,如何从供给出发,降低生产成本、交易成本以消除企业成本上升给经济带来的影响就成为今后我国设计宏观调控政策必须解决的重要问题。     

EXPLAINING FEDERAL RESERVE MONETARY POLICY

In an examination of Federal Funds rate monthly from 1954 to 2000, we compare a model using presidential party as a compositional variable with a model using presidential party as an interactive variable. Federal Reserve monetary policy was found responsive to the economy, to business elites, and to political circumstances. However, these influences had different patterns depending upon presidential party. The Federal Reserve appears to act neither randomly nor in isolation. It is responsive to the economy and interest groups but a President's partisan preference is particularly influential in decisions on monetary policy.     

The reservation wages of Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries

There exists a lot of research on the reservation wages of the unemployed as a determinant of unemployment duration. Little is known about the reservation wages of those who are not in the labor force but might be potential labor force returnees, such as Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) beneficiaries. The main objective of this article is to assess what can be learned from the subjective reservation wages of DI beneficiaries. Using the New Beneficiary Data System (NBDS), the article assesses the magnitudes of reservation wages compared to the last wage earned and the benefit amount, as well as the determinants of reservation wages in a regression framework. The NBDS is unique in that it provides the reservation wages and the work history of DI beneficiaries before and after joining the DI rolls. The article has several noteworthy results and policy implications: *Data show that a significant portion of beneficiaries report being likely to accept a job if offered one. Based on the NBDS, 13 percent of DI beneficiaries who did not work since joining the rolls in 1981-1982 reported in 1991 that they would be willing to work if offered a job and provided their reservation wages. *DI beneficiaries do not appear to price themselves out of the labor market. Half of them would want a wage that is 80 percent or less of the last wage earned before receiving DI. It is estimated that approximately 7 percent of long-term DI beneficiaries may potentially return-to-work if they search for jobs and have a wage offer distribution with a mean at 80 percent of their last wage. *The nonlabor income in addition to the benefit is positively and significantly associated with the reservation wage, while the benefit amount per se is not. However, this result needs to be treated with caution given that nonlabor income is endogenous to the model. *Heterogeneity exists between persons still under the DI program and those that have moved to the Old-Age program. The subsamples of persons who have shifted to the Old-Age program and those who are still under the DI program have median reservation wage to the last wage ratios of 0.69 and 0.93, respectively. A significantly lower reservation wage for persons who have moved to the Old-Age program was also found in a regression framework. This heterogeneity between the two groups may result in part from the different program characteristics both groups face, for instance, in terms of benefit termination and Medicare eligibility rules. *Subjective reservation wage data can be useful to study populations that are out of the labor force. This article is innovative in that it focuses on a group of persons who are typically considered as being out of the labor force, and therefore are not asked reservation wages in general household surveys such as the Current Population Survey. It would be of great interest to collect more reservation wage data for DI beneficiaries in a longitudinal data set to expand this analysis, for instance, to assess conclusively the effects of changing program characteristics on reservation wages and return-to-work outcomes as beneficiaries transition to the Old-Age program or as new return-to-work programs are put in place.     

Public and private sector wages interactions in a general equilibrium model

It is common wisdom that public sector wages are not determined in the same way as private sector wages. At the same time, the empirical evidence available for OECD countries finds a strong positive correlation between public and private sector wages. In this paper, we develop a model that is consistent with a political economy view of the determination of public sector wages and employment, while being consistent with the said empirical evidence. Public finance constraints are crucial: In booms, governments expand employment and wages, while in downturns, lack of tax revenues forces the government to cut back the wage bill.     

THE NEW POLICY CHALLENGES OF FINANCIAL SERVICES GLOBALIZATION

Can nation states cope with numerous public policy challenges–ranging from regional financial crises to the failures of large financial services firms–posed by today's globalized financial and monetary landscape? As Benjamin Cohen has argued “governments must consciously adapt to a dramatic transformation of their status, from monopolists to oligopolists, if they are to adequately represent the interests of all their citizens in monetary affairs.” This article briefly examines the nature of the policy challenges facing states and reviews the findings of symposium contributors who explored the national, regional and international responses of states to the fast moving global financial and monetary developments.     

Does the minimum wage affect welfare caseloads?

Although minimum wages are advocated as a policy that will help the poor, few studies have examined their effect on poor families. This paper uses variation in minimum wages across states and over time to estimate the impact of minimum wage legislation on welfare caseloads. We find that the elasticity of the welfare caseload with respect to the minimum wage is between 0.1 and 0.2, but this estimate is sensitive to the sample period and assumptions about state trends. We tentatively conclude that higher minimum wages increase welfare dependence; however, more research is warranted.© 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

USA,the West and the Rest after September 11/October 7, 2001+: A Midterm Report

This article argues that if the proponents of immigration reform have it their way, the proposed guest worker program will transform American citizenship from an institution based on civic membership to one based on residence rights and socio-economic status. American citizenship, now a relatively accessible option, will become a closed-off status, unattainable for the majority of temporary workers. With this policy, the United States will create a permanently disadvantaged category of guest workers and further reduce the competitiveness of low-skilled minimum wage American workers. The concept of immigration has begun to change from an inclusive notion granting equal rights to immigrants and citizens to a more ambivalent model emphasizing obligations and responsibilities of newcomers while withholding social, political, and legal rights. Guest worker programs with limited residence will accentuate for immigrants that they must pay taxes and benefit the American economy, obey US laws and otherwise contribute to the host society which, in turn, has no reciprocal obligations toward them. This will exacerbate the already existing two-tiered system of human and social rights, creating a new feudalism in America.     

The causal nexus of interest rate policy and gold market: The case of Turkey

The relevance of gold to the financial market and global economies is responsible for the commodity's (gold) link with financial instruments such as the oil price, currency and gold price, stock index, and other commodities price. In this case, the causal analysis between the interest rate and the gold price has been examined in a novel approach. This study uses the standard Granger causality approach to test the relationship for the economy of Turkey over the period June 1, 2000–June 1, 2017. The results revealed that while gold price depends on daily announcements, demand, and supply, the interest rate depends on some factors such as the monetary policy of the central bank, inflation rate, and different macroeconomic parameters. Thus, the causality between the two financial instruments is observed to be significant. According to the conducted statistical analysis, the interest rate and gold price have interaction between each other. Because there is insufficient evidence in the extant literature that establishes a causality relationship between the two variables, the current study is believed to enhance policy directives and contribute to the financial literature. Considering the peculiar situation of the Turkish financial market, this novel approach presents significant policy directions.     

Bündnisse für Arbeit: Nationale Handlungsfähigkeit im europäischen Regimewettbewerb

In recent years, new forms of tripartite concertation between governments, employers’ confederations and trade unions have re-emerged in the form of social pacts. The paper aims at explaining the emergence of social pacts under the impact of European regime competition. It argues that governments increasingly seek structural reforms of the labour market in order to solve the employment crisis. These structural reforms are however hardly attainable without the co-operation of the social partners. Using tripartite agreements, governments try to get the acceptance of trade unions to a reform policy which is conducive for employment growth. While social pacts are struck under the impact of regime competition, the political exchange between trade unions and governments does not have to foster this competition, but social pacts can facilitate European co-ordination of employment policies, since they strengthen the role of social partners.     

States' interests as limits to the power of finance: Regulatory reforms in early local government financialization in the US and UK

Through a comparison of typical and deviant cases, this study probes and refines the augmented power model which argues that the structural power of the financial industry fosters its instrumental power in influencing regulatory reforms under certain scope conditions. It shows the industry's success in influencing policymakers to authorize municipalities to use derivatives and thereby to financialize their debt management in the US (typical case). The failure of banks to acquire such a law in the UK (deviant case) reveals a hitherto little-noticed condition under which this power explanation collapses: states' fiscal and monetary constitution. We demonstrate that analyzing the operation of finance power requires a precise consideration of how states' fiscal and monetary constitution structures governments' responses to financial industry's regulatory preferences. Moreover, we conclude that synthesizing business power research with literature on the mutual dependence between states and finance helps to explain patterns of state financialization.     

Welfare,work experience,and economic self‐sufficiency

The potential of former AFDC recipients to earn a living wage is central to the success of welfare‐to‐work programs. Previous studies have found that welfare recipihyphen;ents see little increase in their wages over time. Low wage growth could arise from either low returns to work experience or low levels of experience. This distinction is important for designing effective welfare policy. In the following paper, we estimate how wages grew with work experience between 1978 and 1992 for a national sample of women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We compare women who never received welfare with both short‐ and long‐term recipients in order to see to what extent the rates of wage growth with work experience differ. We find that they differ very little. We use numerous specification checks to test the robustness of our results and find consistent evidence that the wages of AFDC recipients grew at a rate similar to those of nonrecipients once work experience is taken into account. © 2001 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

When Are Monetary Policy Preferences Egocentric? Evidence from American Surveys and an Experiment

This article enters the international/comparative political economy debate about whether individual‐level macroeconomic policy preferences are egocentric and, if so, on what basis (factors, sectors, or firms). It argues that contextual information may function as a precondition for the emergence of egocentric preferences. With a focus on the trade‐off between using monetary policy for a domestic or an international goal, it presents evidence from three original American surveys using informative vignettes to show how monetary policy preferences exhibit firm‐based egocentric variation: Individuals whose employer does most of its business in overseas markets have a lesser preference for domestic monetary autonomy. It also presents evidence from a survey experiment to show how the strength of this egocentric relationship depends on the informative power of the vignette: A more contextually informative vignette produces a stronger relationship between overseas business activity and a preference against domestic monetary autonomy.     

Reciprocal policy diffusion: the regulation of executive compensation in the UK and the US

Because of popular and political pressure, governments have been compelled to regulate ‘excessive’ executive compensation and search both a policy and political solution. In this paper, I seek to establish the mechanisms of policy learning, competition, and emulation by examining American and British regulatory policies of executive compensation that show evidence of reciprocal diffusion, i.e. from the US to the UK and vice versa. The evidence suggests that during the past two decades, the extent of reciprocal policy diffusion varied and was primarily driven by policy learning. Using published government reports, press releases, public hearings, newspaper articles, and interviews, I demonstrate that reciprocal learning occurred because one country's policymakers and practitioners explicitly discussed and/or referred to the practices in the other country when deciding to adopt a specific policy solution to the problem of excessive executive pay. I discuss the implications for the literature on diffusion and point out avenues for future research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uber in Queensland: From policy fortress to policy change

Emerging technologies are challenging the regulatory systems and industry policy settings that were settled during the microeconomic reforms of the 1980s and 1990s. In 1994, in the absence of credible competition in the taxi industry, Queensland legislation constructed a protective ‘policy fortress’ that benefited taxi licence holders in return for specific service standards. This entrenched a policy–industry nexus upheld by all political parties for two decades. But in 2014–2016, using disruptive digital platforms, Uber and similar organisations directly challenged the policy regime by rapidly expanding their unlicensed operations for personalised passenger bookings. Queensland policy-makers were eventually shocked into establishing a major review, leading to the termination of the protective regime. Drawing on interviews and policy documents, we identify the contextual and ideational factors that facilitated the unlocking of policy change. As consumers became more ‘tech-savvy’, the policy ideas championed by powerful new agents of change came to highlight consumer convenience, flexibility, and the ‘sharing economy’. Such narratives reframed the economic disruptions flowing from new technologies as opportunities to lower service costs.     

The politics of policy diffusion

This article discusses the recent literature on policy diffusion and puts forward a new articulation of its political dimensions. Policy diffusion means that policies in one unit (country, state, city, etc.) are influenced by the policies of other units. The diffusion literature conceptualises these interdependencies with four mechanisms: learning, competition, coercion and emulation. The article identifies a model of diffusion that is dominant in the diffusion literature. According to this model, policies spread because decision makers evaluate the policy implications of the actions of other units. It is argued that the role of politics remains in the background in this model, and the article shows how going beyond a narrow focus on policy adoptions helps us to consider the politics of policy diffusion more explicitly.     

US state government privatization: Implications for social equity and inequality?

Privatization of state government services is commonplace, but our understanding of its effects is limited by data availability. We study the relationship between American state government contracting and public sector wages. Governments have used public sector employment to support a variety of goals, including social equity and economic development, but privatization, as a new public management (NPM) reform, may shift the focus. Our empirical analysis shows that state privatization of service delivery is associated with decreases in the public sector wage premium, but that these effects are not driven by gender, race, or low-levels of educational attainment. The fidelity of the implementation to NPM values conditions these effects. We also find that contracting service delivery is associated with a lower public sector wage premium for middle-class workers.     

The political temptations of rationing by insiders

Long waits for goods, services, and jobs to become available still exist in and to the east of Europe. This paper explores the political economy of what has made pervasive rationing an attractive way to cope with shocks in the past. The explanation advanced lies not in the creation of shortage rents for the personal profit of corrupt insiders controlling the production and distribution process. Instead, rationing with queuing is viewed as a “populist” scheme that allows a majority to keep its wages above levels that would clear the labor market while hiding the cost of such a policy, increased unemployment.