DEMEANOR OR CRIME? WHY “HOSTILE” CITIZENS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ARRESTED*

It is a criminological axiom that displays of hostility by citizens towards police officers directly increase the odds of arrest in police-citizen encounters. This axiom rests on nearly three decades of observational research of interactions between police officers and citizens. Two features of this work, however, raise questions about the validity of findings that citizen demeanor independently affects police arrest decisions. First, although demeanor is conceptually defined as legally permissible behavior, measures of demeanor often include criminal conduct. Second, criminal conduct is not controlled adequately when the effects of demeanor on arrest are estimated. In an analysis employing a demeanor measure that does not confound crime and that controls for crime more comprehensively, it is found that displays of hostility which violate no laws do not increase the likelihood of arrest in and of themselves. The implications of this finding are discussed.     

THE PREVENTIVE EFFECTS OF ARREST ON INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE: RESEARCH,POLICY AND THEORY*

Research Summary: This research addresses the limitations of prior analyses and reviews of five experiments testing for the specific deterrent effect of arrest on intimate partner violence by applying to individual level data consistent eligibility criteria, common independent and outcome measures, and appropriate statistical tests. Based on 4,032 cases involving adult males who assaulted their female intimate partners, multivariate regression analyses show consistent but modest reductions in subsequent offenses targeting the original victim that is attributable to arresting the suspect. Although the reductions attributable to arrest are similar across all five studies, other factors, such as the suspect's prior arrest record, are stronger predictors of subsequent offenses. The effect of arrest is also modest compared with the general decline in offenses toward the same victim during the follow‐up period. Policy Implications: These results lend limited support for policies favoring arrest over informal police responses to intimate partner violence. However, the analyses also show that despite police intervention, a minority of suspects repeatedly victimize their partners and that factors other than formal sanctions play larger roles in explaining the cessation or continuation of aggressive behavior between intimates. These findings suggest that new policies replacing or enhancing arrest that target potential repeat offenders might produce larger reductions in intimate partner violence.     

MORE ON DEMEANOR AND ARREST IN DADE COUNTY*

A recent study of police behavior using data collected in Dade County, Florida, found that citizen demeanor is a spurious correlate of arrest in light of control for criminal conduct (Klinger, 1994). This finding calls into question the long-standing belief that hostility directly increases the odds of arrest in police-citizen encounters. Responding to this research, Lundman (1994) reanalyzed data used in several previous studies that had reported hostility effects. His reanalysis offered limited support for a demeanor-arrest link. Because the measures of demeanor he used and the models he estimated were somewhat different from those Klinger had used and estimated, Lundman suggested that it would be valuable to revisit the Dade County data to see whether Klinger's null finding regarding hostility effects might be artifactual. This study reanalyzes the Dade County data. It indicates that one of four measures of demeanor is a significant net correlate of arrest under some circumstances. The implications of this finding are discussed.     

Victim's perceptions of initial police responses to robbery and aggravated assault: Does race matter?

Despite the fact that police officers are usually the first persons within the criminal justice system to respond to a criminal victimization, the majority of research investigating racial discrimination within the system has examined primarily the effects of race on adjudication outcomes which occur after initial police interventions, such as conviction decisions and sentences. Very little empirical effort has been devoted to examining the effects of race on early police responses to a reported victimization. Using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey from 1987 to 1992, this paper investigates the effects of both the victim's and the offender's race on three police responses to robbery and aggravated assault: (1) police response time to the scene, (2) effort exerted by the police at the scene, and (3) likelihood of arrest. It was found that police were quicker to respond and also exerted more effort at the scene such as searching and taking evidence to incidents of black on white robbery compared to all other racial dyads. This relationship held even after controlling for other factors such as victim-offender relationship, poverty, injury to the victim, and victim's gender. No significant effects of race, however, were found when predicting the probability of arrest in cases of robbery. The effects of race on police responses to aggravated assault were more complicated. For assaults involving strangers, police were significantly more likely to exert additional effort at the scene if the victim was white and the offender was perceived to be black. This effect was reversed, however, for nonstranger assault victimizations. Police were significantlyless likely to exert effort at the scene or to make an arrest in black on white assaults involving nonstrangers. The most consistent predictors of arrest in both stranger and nonstranger assault victimizations were police response time, injury to the victim, and the incident occurring in a public setting.     

Criminal homicide and the elderly offender: A theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper theoretically develops and empirically tests factors that significantly affect criminal homicide arrest rate patterns in the United States for elderly criminals of the ages 65 years and older, from 1964 to 1985. The analysis reveais that changes in commonly selected economic, demographic, law enforcement, and punishment variables are significantly correlated with elderly criminal homicide arrest rates in a manner consistent with implications from general theoretical models of criminal behavior and with frameworks specifically dealing with criminal homicide.     

Gender difference or indifference? Detective decision making in sexual assault cases

Prior research examining sexual assault case decision making has failed to account for the demographic characteristics of the criminal justice practitioners charged with making case decisions. Inclusion of such information is important because it provides researchers with a greater understanding of how criminal justice practitioners' own gender, race, age, and past experiences affect their judgments. This study seeks to examine whether gender differences exist in detectives' arrest decisions in sexual assault cases. Victim, suspect, incident, and detective characteristics are collected from police case and investigatory files on 328 criminal sexual assault cases involving adult female victims reported to a large Midwestern police department in 2003. Logistic regression is used to determine whether detective gender predicted the odds of arrest after controlling for incident, victim, and suspect characteristics. It is hypothesized that cases involving female detectives would be more likely to result in arrest after controlling for other incident, victim, and suspect characteristics. However, contrary to expectations, female detectives are significantly less likely than male detectives to arrest suspects in sexual assault cases even after controlling for the influence of other factors shown to predict arrest. The findings support prior research that suggests female practitioners may not necessarily be more sensitive toward female victims despite previous assumptions that this would hold true. The findings suggest that efforts to hire female police officers for the purposes of dealing with female-related victimization may ultimately undermine efforts to improve victim experiences with the criminal justice system. They further suggest that both researchers and police administrators need to rethink the best ways to serve female victims beyond hiring mandates.     

The deterrent effect of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment: A review of the evidence and issues

This paper critically examines the role of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment in deterring criminal/deviant behavior. A thorough review of the perceptual deterrence literature from 1972–1986 is provided which indicates that cross-sectional correlations between perceptions of sanction threats and self-reported criminal/deviant behavior are moderately negative for diverse offenses, consistent with the deterrence doctrine. It is noted that rather than expressing the deterrent effect, these correlations probably indicate the effect of prior behavior on currently held perceptions—the experiential effect. In addition, since in many instances the reported correlations express simple bivariate relationships, the association may be spurious rather than causal. When researchers employing panel designs have estimated the deterrent relationship with variables in their correct temporal ordering and with more fully specified causal models, the moderate inverse effect for both perceived certainty and severity disappears. Although this would argue strongly for the continued utilization of longitudinal data and fully developed models of deterrence/social control, recent commentaries have raised questions about this line of perceptual deterrence research. These arguments are assessed and an agenda for future deterrence research suggested.     

Instrumental variables methods in experimental criminological research: what, why and how

Quantitative criminology focuses on straightforward causal questions that are ideally addressed with randomized experiments. In practice, however, traditional randomized trials are difficult to implement in the untidy world of criminal justice. Even when randomized trials are implemented, not everyone is treated as intended and some control subjects may obtain experimental services. Treatments may also be more complicated than a simple yes/no coding can capture. This paper argues that the instrumental variables methods (IV) used by economists to solve omitted variables bias problems in observational studies also solve the major statistical problems that arise in imperfect criminological experiments. In general, IV methods estimate causal effects on subjects who comply with a randomly assigned treatment. The use of IV in criminology is illustrated through a re-analysis of the Minneapolis domestic violence experiment. The results point to substantial selection bias in estimates using treatment delivered as the causal variable, and IV estimation generates deterrent effects of arrest that are about one-third larger than the corresponding intention-to-treat effects.     

To protect and collect: a nationwide study of profit-motivated police crime

This study is part of a larger research project on police crime in the United States. Police crimes are those criminal offenses committed by sworn law enforcement officers who have the general powers of arrest. Profit-motivated police crime involves officers who use their authority of position to engage in crime for personal gain. This study reports the findings on 1,591 cases where a law enforcement officer was arrested for one or more profit-motivated crimes during the seven-year period 2005–2011. The profit-motivated arrest cases involved 1,396 individual officers employed by 782 state, local, special, constable, and tribal law enforcement agencies located in 531 counties and independent cities in 47 states and the District of Columbia. Our data is the first systematic study of profit-motivated police crime. The study describes the nature of this form of police misconduct in terms of several dimensions, including the characteristics of police who perpetrate these crimes, where it occurs, the specific criminal charges, and the contexts within which profit-motivated police crime is punished through police agencies and the criminal courts.     

CRIME,ARRESTS, AND PRETRIAL JAIL INCARCERATION: AN EXAMINATION OF THE DETERRENCE THESIS*

Using longitudinal data calibrated in daily intervals and a vector ARMA (VARMA) study design, we investigate the causal relations among the number of crimes reported to the police, the frequency of arrest, and the number of defendants held in pretrial jail confinement. Results show a lagged negative effect of frequency of arrest on reported crime. As the number of wrests made by police increases, the number of index crimes reported to authorities decreases substantially the following day. Additionally the analysis reveals a significant positive contemporaneous relationship between criminal activity and arrest levels. No feedback effects among the three variables are noted. In sum, our findings add empirical support to the thesis that the instantaneous and lagged relationship between crime and clearances are of opposite sign. That is, criminal activity increases arrest levels instantaneously, or at least relatively so, while the negative effect of arrest levels on crime levels transpires more gradually.     

Police criminal charging decisions: An examination of post-arrest decision-making

Scholars have encouraged studies of police decision-making to move beyond the arrest decision into research that broadens the understanding of police behavior. The criminal charge placed by officers against offenders is largely an untouched area of study. Examining criminal charging decisions goes beyond simple dichotomous decisions, such as arrest, but instead explores the area of police leniency or punitiveness. Randomly constructed vignettes describing a domestic violence incident were given to officers from four agencies. Officers indicated the criminal charges they would likely list against an offender if they were to make an arrest. Serious criminal charges were often supported by additional, but less serious, charges. Victim injury and an uncooperative offender were related to the decision to charge a misdemeanor offense. There was a significant negative relationship between the number of charges listed and more experienced officers and officers working in smaller agencies. The implications of this study and directions for future research are discussed.     

Police Involvement in Incidents of Physical Assault: Analysis of the Redesigned National Crime Victimization Survey

Police involvement in incidents of physical assaults against women has been the subject of considerable research. There is still some debate, however, about the relationship between the social structure of the incident and the level of involvement of the criminal justice system. Using the Redesigned National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS; U.S. Department of Justice, 1997), this paper looks at several different dimensions of the criminal justice system's involvement in physical assaults against women including calling the police, police response, and arrest. Results suggest that police were more likely to become involved in first time incidents of physical assaults against women and incidents that involved injury. Differences between models, however, suggested that the involvement of the criminal justice system is a multidimensional process.     

Domestic violence: Victimization, police intervention, and disposition

The data presented here are consistent with prior research conclusions and indicate that wives have been victims in domestic dispute incidents in the United States more frequently than other family or household members. Further, in specific instances where criminal complaints were initiated, it is shown that in these instances, arrest under the Domestic Violence Program produced the strongest association when wives were the victims. The police were likely to arrest offenders (1) when criminal complaints were initiated and (2) when intimate family members, rather than strangers, were victims. The data indicate that victims who did not initiate criminal complaints did not receive adequate protection or services from the criminal justice system, and criminal complaints initiated by wives received significantly more arrest-and-referral activity than did complaints initiated by other family or household members.     

Domestic violence,domestic dispute reporting,and police disposition patterns: A pilot study

The data supported prior research findings that, in general, the police response to domestic dispute and violence incidents does not result in criminal complaints and subsequently, no action is taken. Considered separately, urban areas produce a lower reported domestic dispute rate, but display a stronger tendency to arrest offenders under the Ohio Domestic Violence Program and disputes result in action not being taken more often than in suburban and less often than in rural areas. Surburban areas evidence the highest reported domestic dispute rate, the lowest tendency to initiate criminal complaints under the Ohio Domestic Violence Program, and tend to arrest offenders less often and make fewer referrals to other agencies than urban areas. Rural areas have a higher reported domestic dispute rate than urban areas, arrest fewer offenders, and make more referrals to other agencies than suburban areas. The data suggested that domestic dispute and violence incidents are handled differently by urban. suburban, and rural police jurisdictions.     

Estimation of arrest careers using hierarchical stochastic models

This paper introduces a general procedure using hierarchical stochastic models for characterizing criminal careers within a population of heterogeneous offenders. Individuals engage in criminal careers which are treated as stochastic processes governed by fixed parameters (e.g., a rate parameter), and these parameters come from specified distributions. The parameters of these distributions at the upper level of the hierarchy must then be specified. The models are estimated using data on all persons arrested at least once in the six-county Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area during the 4 years 1974–1977 for a criterion offense (an index crime other than larceny) and arrested at least once for robbery through April 1979. The collected data set is not a random sample of all such offenders in the population. There is a bias toward selecting those with a higher arrest frequency. In order to make more general inferences, statistical adjustment was needed to overcome the arrest-frequency sampling bias. We construct a series of models for the arrest career and fit the models with the data set of arrests. After correcting biases in the data, we estimate the model parameters using empirical Bayes methods and then examine the resulting models.     

The effects of legal and extra-legal characteristics on organizational victim decision-making

A variety of factors influence decisions to mobilize formal social control. With few exceptions, studies considering the effects of legal (e.g., case specific) and extra legal (e.g., offender and victim characteristics) variables have concentrated on sentencing under criminal law, an outcome subject to sample selection bias given that the majority of cases never reach this stage. Analyses of earlier decision points (e.g., victim calls for service, police use of force, and arrest), have focused on street crime and single jurisdictions. A neglected research context is the organizational victim’s response to employee fraud. Using a sample of 663 fraud cases, this study applies Black’s (The behavior of law, San Diego, Academic, 1976) theory of law to victim organizations’ decisions to mobilize formal social control. Results demonstrate that extralegal characteristics weigh heavily on decisions to initiate both criminal and civil outcomes. Specifically, offenders’ education and age decreased the odds of criminal legal mobilization. Mobilization of criminal law was also more likely by government agencies. Implications for Black’s theory and directions for further research are discussed.     

Incorporating Co-offending in Sentencing Models: An Analysis of Fines Imposed on Antitrust Offenders

Analyses of sentencing (and other criminal justice processes such as the decision to prosecute, plea bargaining, and contact with the police) often use the isolated individual as the unit of analysis. However, the criminal justice system often processes either offenses or court cases rather than persons. If court cases always involved one individual, this would have little impact. However, offenses involving co-offending—two or more persons acting together—comprise a substantial proportion of criminal activity (Reiss, 1980, 1986). Depending on the prevalence of co-offending, it may be very likely that two or more individuals involved in the same case will be selected as members of the same sample of criminal justice or criminological data. Unless it can be shown that both the individual-level variables of co-offenders and their error terms are mutually independent, analyses based on methods such as ordinary least-squares multiple regression would violate the underlying assumptions of such models. However, alternatives to linear models assuming either type of independence are available. Among the most useful of these are mixed models, specifically those assuming compound symmetry. This is illustrated with an analysis of fines imposed on criminally convicted antitrust offenders. These models may yield results which are substantially different than those from models which ignore co-offending. In a model of fines imposed on antitrust offenders, models which ignore co-offending generally overstate both estimates and statistical significance of offense-level variables and understate those of offender-level variables.     

An economic model of social sensitivity: The case of individual criminal behavior

In general, economists have modeled criminal behavior as a problem in time allocation under uncertainty. Their Friedman-Savage utility models have been based on the binomial probability distribution and then tested using aggregate data on crime rates and neglect the nonpecuniary aspects of crime. This paper overcomes the shortcomings of previous work. Specifically, criminal activity is modeled with an underlying geometric probability process and explicitly accounts for the moral and social compromise involved in becoming a criminal. The empirical model enables the quantification of the criminal's moral and social sensitivity using data based on a consolidated file of police records and a cohort survey of criminals and noncriminals. On the basis of this unique data set, it is found that the included individual criminals are risk averse and that gang membership reduces social sensitivity.     

Just enough police presence: Reducing crime and disorderly behavior by optimizing patrol time in crime hot spots

Using observational data collected as part of a one-year preventive patrol study in Minneapolis, this investigation employs survival models to test hypotheses about the effects of specific instances of police patrol presence at high-crime locations on the time until the next occurrence of criminal or disorderly behavior at these locations. The results show that patrol stops must reach a threshold dosage of about 10 minutes in order to generate significantly longer survival times without disorder — i.e., greater residual deterrence — than that generated by driving through a hot spot. The optimal length for patrol stops appears to be 11 to 15 minutes. After that point, continued police presence brings diminishing returns. The theoretical and policy implications of these results are discussed.     

College Students' Evaluation of Police Performance: A Comparison of Chinese and Americans

Public evaluations of the police are equally important in the East and West as police legitimacy resides in the views of the public. Using survey data from over 800 college students in China and the U.S., this study compares and contrasts Chinese and American college students' global satisfaction with the police and specific evaluations of police demeanor, integrity, and effectiveness. Three groups of predictors, including demographic characteristics, crime and criminal justice experiences, and locality were used to explain these perceptions. It was found that Chinese college students generally viewed the police less positively than Americans. Some factors such as media influence and college major had a consistent effect on perceptions of the police across the two countries, while other factors such as victimization and fear of crime had varied effects depending on specific evaluative areas. Implications for future research and policy are provided.