The Islamic challenge in North Africa

This article analyzes and compares the growth of Islamist movements and regime responses in the three core Maghrib states — Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. In spite of the many points of commonality and their geographical proximity, the particular sociopolitical and historical circumstances of each of the three states have varied widely, producing a different state‐society/regime‐opposition dynamic in each case, resulting in very different political outcomes. Algeria has been, and remains, in many ways, sui generis in the Arab world. Consequently, even if the Islamists do eventually come to power there, one should avoid adopting any simplistic Islamic ‘domino theory’ for the region.     

The Age of Ebrahim Raisi

The Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself in an unusual paradox. It is a regime that is growing stronger in the region while weaker at home. The mullahs will stand as Persia’s most dedicated and ardent imperialists, who have implanted their influence throughout the Middle East. Iran has prolonged regional civil wars, harassed Arab potentates, and reduced the once proud Arab nation of Iraq into a vassal state. Yet, it is at home that the regime faces its most significant challenges. Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s new dogmatic and unimaginative president, is facing a depleted economy, popular protests, and massive corruption. The clerical oligarchs have no answer to Iran’s mounting problems. It remains unclear whether the regime can survive the many predicaments of its own making.     

Determinants of Military Strategy, 1903–1994: A Quantitative Empirical Test

Military strategy is centrally important to understanding the causes, conduct, and outcomes of war. Several foreign policy theories make predictions as to what military strategies a state will choose. This article presents the first quantitative, empirical tests of hypotheses of strategy choice. Analysis was conducted on a random sample of country-years taken from the population of all countries from the years 1903 to 1994. Military strategy is classified as being either maneuver, attrition, or punishment. Empirical findings reveal that democracies and industrialized states are more likely to choose maneuver strategies, and that a state's own experiences affect the likelihood of it choosing maneuver. Factors found not to affect strategy choice include terrain, the level of external threat, troop quality, whether a state is democratizing, whether a state is a mixed regime, whether a state is a military regime, and vicarious experiences.     

The political effects of information warfare: Why new military capabilities cause old political dangers

When collective violence breaks out during periods of regime change, the root cause of that violence is ordinarily assumed to be a failure of state and/or governmental organizations, alongside transition. However, there are limits to the applicability of this understanding, since violence sometimes erupts during regime change, even when state and executive organs remain intact. This paper addresses those puzzling cases, by arguing that transitional violence can be a by-product of competition between, or within, a state's security services—for power and resources in an emerging regime. Competition develops where there is intense uncertainty about the form that the new regime might take and associated uncertainty about the distribution of power and state funds among state security services within that regime. The dynamics of transitional violence through intrastate competition are illustrated in the paper through treatment of two “most different” cases: Indonesia (1998) and Romania (1990).     

Thickening Civil Society: Explaining the Development of Associational Life in Mexico

Scholarship has demonstrated the important role that associational life has played in democratic transitions, democratic consolidation, and making democracy work. Unfortunately, however, many countries that have recently completed the transition to democracy lack a strong history of autonomous associations. Given their importance, this research seeks to understand how nonprofit organizations emerge in current-day Mexico, a recent transition country with a traditionally weak associational life, historically controlled by the state. Through a comparison of four Mexican cities this research finds that a transition from one-party rule to competitive elections was necessary to break the incentives for clientelism. Even following the transition, however, the persistence of informal rules from the old regime operating in both government and society restricts the opportunities available to potential ‘public entrepreneurs’. As a result, such entrepreneurs are highly dependent on already existing social infrastructure to obtain necessary human, organizational, and financial resources.     

Informal governance and participation in non-democratic international organizations

This article uses the informal governance framework to elucidate the connection between regime transition and participation in regional international organizations (IOs). In particular, this study focuses on non-democratic regional IOs and examines the empirical case of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). We investigate how the level of regime transition of each CIS member state affects its participation in the CIS. The paper utilizes an original dataset that contains information regarding the number of CIS-related agreements that have been signed by each CIS member state during the 1991–2010 time period, which can be used to measure the level of participation of each state in the CIS. We find that states with a lower level of democratization and a higher level of marketization are more likely to participate in agreements within the CIS. The paper contributes to the wider application of informal governance framework by demonstrating the usefulness of these theories for understanding the nature and dynamics of regional IOs, such as the CIS.     

Was Idi Amin's Government a Terrorist Regime?

What does state terrorism look like? How do we distinguish it from other forms of mass state violence, such as repression or genocide? Based on the developing literature on state terrorism, this study presents three expectations that violence perpetrated by the state should meet if it is to be classified as state terrorism: these are (a) that the violence is perpetrated by agents of the state, (b) that the violence is visible, and (c) that state terrorism focused against a state's own citizens will be carried out by an autocratic, personalistic regime. Drawing substantially on a series of primary sources, this study demonstrates that Idi Amin's regime in Uganda from 1971 to 1979 did engage in state terrorism against its own citizens.     

Science and technology in the South Atlantic: minding the gaps

The notion of a geopolitical system known as the South Atlantic is severely tested when it comes to science and technology (S&T), especially given the enormous disparities between (and sometimes within) countries of the region. The essay attempts to characterise the S&T policy pursuits of these countries by dividing them into the most advanced (Brazil and South Africa) versus the poorer remainder, and identifying the most powerful drivers for S&T investment for each group. The practical needs of social and economic development for the latter group are self‐evident. Rather more subtle are the multifaceted initiatives of the two more developed countries, with drivers ranging from prestige and national security to economic competitiveness and growth. The increasing complexity of policy making in Brazil and South Africa is driving analysis of their behaviour more towards the model of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. A major restraint on better research is the parlous state of data on research and development in all of the countries of the region; finding a remedy for that weakness would not only benefit policy researchers but also the policy makers themselves, who lack adequate feedback mechanisms for their investment paths in S&T.     

俄东部交通基础设施大建设对黑龙江省与俄经贸合作的影响

俄罗斯70%的领土位于亚洲,亚太地区经济的快速发展对俄罗斯产生了重要影响,因此俄政府愈来愈重视与亚太毗邻的东部地区的经济发展。但长期以来,由于政策缺乏连续性、资金投入不足等原因,俄东部地区经济发展缓慢。而制约其经济发展的一个主要因素就是交通基础设施落后。目前,俄领导人已意识到要发展经济必先大力改善交通基础设施状况。黑龙江省积极参与俄东部地区交通基础设施大建设必然会提升对俄经贸合作水平。     

The Human Price of Reparations

Post-1918 Germany was gripped by severe foof shortages that devastated the health of urban children in particular. German politicans and officials became increasingly convinced that a state of near famine and the accompanying scourges of social and political disorder could not be adequately addressed given the demands placed on public finances and the wider economy by the reparations regime. While the British reacted by counselling a moderation of the reparations regime, the French accused Germany of instrumentalizing domestic crisis to undermine reparations and thereby compromise the Versailles Settlement. French sanctions culminated in an invasion of the Ruhr District in January 1923, which served to create a devastating famine in the region and to intensify popular antipathy in Germany to the reparations regime. The article concludes by considering briefly links between the perceived perfidy of reparations and the subsequent resonance of Nazi ideology and policy.     

The Human Price of Reparations

Post-1918 Germany was gripped by severe foof shortages that devastated the health of urban children in particular. German politicans and officials became increasingly convinced that a state of near famine and the accompanying scourges of social and political disorder could not be adequately addressed given the demands placed on public finances and the wider economy by the reparations regime. While the British reacted by counselling a moderation of the reparations regime, the French accused Germany of instrumentalizing domestic crisis to undermine reparations and thereby compromise the Versailles Settlement. French sanctions culminated in an invasion of the Ruhr District in January 1923, which served to create a devastating famine in the region and to intensify popular antipathy in Germany to the reparations regime. The article concludes by considering briefly links between the perceived perfidy of reparations and the subsequent resonance of Nazi ideology and policy.     

The generosity moment: Ethnic politics,democratic consolidation and the state in Yugoslavia (Croatia), South Africa and Czechoslovakia

In the course of regime change in multiethnic societies there arises a critical juncture at which dominant ethnic groups must decide whether to accommodate minorities. Such critical junctures are called ‘generosity moments’. It is hypothesized that a generous, liberal approach towards minorities is the best way to ensure a peaceful transition, earn the democratic consent of minorities, and secure the legitimacy of the state. Competing ideas about the generosity moment are considered, such as the role structural factors play in determining political outcomes and the possibility that generosity will only encourage a series of unappeasable minority demands (the slippery slope thesis). This study finds that the structuring of ethnicity has a relatively stronger causal role to play than leadership variables in determining political outcomes. Czechoslovakia's ethnic structure (that is, homogeneous republics, no historical memory of interethnic war, and the absence of contested borders) inhibited the integrative effects of generosity and instead made possible a slippery slope dynamic. South Africa indicates that generosity can make a difference in some cases, but the more intense, multiple cleavages of Yugoslavia suggests limits to its effectiveness.     

Politics and Threat Perception: Explaining Pakistani Military Strategy on the North West Frontier

Abstract

Analysts and policymakers agree that the Pakistani military has engaged in selective repression of and collusion with armed groups. Yet beyond this general observation, fine-grained theory and evidence do not exist to systematically explain patterns of military strategy across groups and over time. This paper provides a theoretical framework for explaining regime perceptions of armed groups and the strategies state security managers pursue toward different types of groups. It then probes this framework using a combination of new medium-N data on military offensives, peace deals, and state–group alliances in Pakistan’s North West and four comparative case studies from North and South Waziristan. We argue that the Pakistani military—the key state institution in this context—has assigned armed groups to different political roles reflecting both their ideological affinity with the military and the operational benefits they can provide to the army. This mixture of instrumental and ideological motivations has created a complex blend of regime threat perceptions and state–group interactions across space and time. A clearer understanding of how the military views Pakistan’s armed political landscape can inform policy debates about the nature of Pakistani counterinsurgency, as well as broader theoretical debates about order and violence.     

The Moore thesis: what's left after 1989?

This article reconsiders the work of Barrington Moore and his critics on the historical emergence of democracy in the light of post-communist democratization. What are we to make of a region which violates Moore's dictum – “No bourgeoisie, no democracy”? Using the tools of comparative historical analysis, it makes sense of how democracy emerged in the region by developing a theory which both explains why this was possible and what social actors were essential to this outcome. With attention to patterns of social development in the region, the politics of elite alliance in the final phase of communism, the strength of civil society at extrication, and the role of the international system, it explains differences in regime outcomes across the region.     

The Twin Peaks of Pyongyang

The United States has been negotiating with North Korea in an effort to have it renounce its nuclear program for over a decade, since Washington negotiated an Agreed Framework in 1994. In this time, North Korea has only amassed more plutonium. The negotiations are hindered by mutual distrust and hostility, but it is doubtful whether any change in Washington's attitude toward the dprk would help solve the nuclear issue. It is the Kim regime that is the core problem. Until the regime is removed, there can be no durable peace in the region. This article suggests that with the prospect for a negotiated resolution of the nuclear issue remote, and since any attempt to remove the Kim regime militarily would entail huge costs, Washington might consider a third option: directly engaging the North Korean people.     

Intangible Infrastructure of the GCC: Bridging the Divide

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments have made great efforts to cross the urban/rural divide, which have dramatically reduced illiteracy and the accessibility of basic health care. The GCC has enjoyed little success with addressing both urban and rural unemployment, and the growing number of young citizens who cannot find work. Freeing up jobs for educated young citizens and revitalisation of national economies require governments to deport expats by the hundreds of thousands. There are extreme pressures that divide the urban and rural residents of GCC states. Equitable access to the Internet served as a unifying factor in Vietnam and Scotland, and similar success can be seen in the GCC. Internet access via satellite or 4G is actionable with minimal infrastructure. Building of infrastructure for reliable delivery systems will be expensive, but the building and maintenance of the network will provide jobs and improve local economies. Access to high-speed Internet will give poor people in rural areas means to improve their economic situation and access education, which are two main factors of discontent with the government. Access to high-speed Internet in rural areas of the GCC will serve as one of the catalysts for peace in the region.     

‘Unity in diversity'? Coalition politics in India (with special reference to Kerala)

India is the biggest of the very few post‐colonial (and non‐Western) states to have sustained a competitive multi‐party democratic system of government. But as India completed half a century of independence, it was also beginning a new chapter in its democratic development. The steady decline of the Congress Party appeared to presage a fresh phase in which the emerging patterns of political diversity and competition seemed to make coalition government an unavoidable necessity. This articles considers the record of coalition governments in India, both at the centre and in the state with the longest experience of such governments ‐ Kerala. In doing so it seeks to identify the factors that help determine the success of coalition politics, partly with reference to the features of the consociational model that has been mooted as offering one possible way of resolving problems of democratic governance in plural societies.     

Egypt's struggle against the militant Islamic groups

This study deals with the militant Islamic challenge to the Egyptian regime during the early 1990s. The article analyzes the militant Islamic groups’ modes of operation and the regime's counter‐measures. This analysis leads to the conclusion that although the Islamic groups are a major source of instability in Egypt, their ability to overthrow the government and to establish an Islamic order is doubtful. The militant Islamic groups would be able to pose a viable alternative to the regime only if they could overcome the disputes among themselves, broaden their socioeconomic infrastructure, penetrate the army and find a charismatic leader capable of attracting and leading the masses.     

The EU and Russia's conflicting regime preferences in Ukraine: assessing regime promotion strategies in the scope of the Ukraine crisis

This paper evaluates the competitiveness of the European Union (EU) and Russia's regime preferences in their foreign policies towards Ukraine in the scope of the on-going Ukraine crisis. It is argued that the underpinning geopolitical environment Ukraine currently resides in, wedged between two much larger powers (the EU and Russia), renders it a vulnerable target state for regime promotion from both sides. Indeed, since the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine, both the EU and Russia have had discernible regime promotion strategies in their foreign policies. The EU's regime promotion has focussed on facilitating democracy in Ukraine, along with more material interests (trade and strategic aims) while Russia has reacted with increasingly zero-sum policies which pursue its preference for having a loyal and Russian-facing regime in Ukraine. Ultimately, the increasing competitiveness of the EU and Russia has been a key factor in the onset of the Ukraine crisis, which offers important insight into the relationship between large powers and the smaller third states which lie in their overlapping spheres of influence.