冷战后东盟地区安全机制的发展及对中国的影响

安全机制是当今国际安全研究领域的一个热点问题。在本文中，“安全机制”将被界定为“容许国家相信其他国家将予以回报，而在它的行为上保持克制的那些原则、规则和标准。这一概念不仅指便于合作的标准和期望，而且指一种超出短期自我利益追逐的一种合作形式”。而所谓东盟地区安全机制，在文中则主要指的是以下两类机制：一是东盟组织框架内、涉及东南亚地区的安全机制；二是由东盟主导的、有区域外因家参加的、     

吉尔吉斯斯坦的政权更迭及新政权面临的挑战

吉尔吉斯斯坦的经济、政治、社会问题积重难返,加上西方势力的渗透,引发今年3月的政治事变,导致政权更迭。这一事变将加重中亚地缘政治形势的不稳定因素。吉新政权也将长期面临国内政治不稳定、经济和社会问题痼疾难治,以及与大国关系难以平衡等诸多挑战。     

The ＂Abe/Aso Regime＂ and Sino-Japanese Relations

Following the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party＇s victory in the December 2012 election, some Japanese analysts pointed out that the new Abe/Aso Govemment would introduce rightist policies, and that as such it would be more difficult for China and Japan to improve their bilateral relations. As expected, in the past six months since its coming to power, the Abe cabinet has vigorously promoted so-called ＂Abe economics＂ and implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy that has caused a drastic depreciation of the Japanese Yen. In order to revise the ＂Constitution of Japan＂, in July 2013 it has been striving to win the election of the Senate. Externally, the new cabinet members have frequently visited foreign countries, implementing a diplomatic strategy of containing and countering China. One of its aims is to completely rid itself of the shackles of World War II and to try to reconstruct powerful military forces. The Diaoyu Islands issue has been used by the Abe cabinet to serve its domestic and foreign policy objectives,     

上海五国机制的形成及特点

本文全面回顾了上海五国机制形成的历史过程,着重探讨了该机制的7大特征,并对中国对中亚地区的政策、上海五国机制现阶段的合作重点进行了阐述和分析.     

The Evolution and Prospects of the International Climate Change Regime

The United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Bali,Indonesia in December 2007, formally launching the post-Kyoto negotiations. After hard discussions, the parties finally agreed on the Bali Roadmap, promising to have further negotiations and maintain and improve the international climate change regime centered on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC） and the Kyoto Protocol. However, the scientificity, rationality and effectiveness of the regime are constantly questioned. Very few countries can fulfill standard emissions. Neither Japan or Canada nor most European Union countries are able to fulfill the goals of emissions reduction on schedule. The question of how much responsibility the rapidly growing developing countries should undertake is increasingly standing out. Yet although the regime is greatly challenged, it is still the only relatively complete framework in terms of structure and functions that international climate cooperation can rely on. This regime will continue to play a fundamental and irreplaceable role in the more and more complicated international climate negotiations.     

The Regime Change from Koizumi to Abe and Japanese Nationalism

During his term of office, Prime Minister Koizumi time and again paid homage to the Yasukuni Shrine where the Class-A     

国际机制理论与东北亚能源外交

在东北亚地区,由于中国、日本、韩国等能源消费大国能源消费的日益增长、俄罗斯作为能源大国的异军突起以及东北亚内部因能源而起的各种争端,能源外交成为东北亚外交中的重点和热点。开展东北亚能源外交的目的是通过政策协调构建一个多边能源合作机制,在东北亚地区不存在霸权国家提供合作机制的背景下,可以考虑运用国际机制理论,通过能源外交特别是多边能源外交构建本地区多边能源合作机制,并充分发挥能源外交的"外溢"功能,借机推进东北亚整体合作的发展。     

布什"倒萨"意图及影响

今年 1月 3 1日 ,布什发表《国情咨文》 ,将伊拉克、伊朗和朝鲜列为“邪恶轴心”国家 ,6月 1日布什在西点军校长篇演讲中提出今后将对拥有生化武器和核武器的恐怖分子和敌对国家进行“先发制人”的打击 ,8月 1 5日美国国防部向总统和国会提交的2 0 0 2年《国防报告》及 9月 2 0日布什向国会递交的《美国国家安全战略》报告 ,都将“先发制人”作为美国对敌对国家和恐怖主义组织实施打击的主要方式。 1 0月 8日布什继 9月 1 2日联大发言后再次发表态度强硬的“倒萨”讲话。 1 0日、1 1日美国众参两院通过决议授权布什在必要时使用武力打击伊拉克。其势逼人 ,如上弦之箭。人们不禁要问 :海湾战争的失败和国际制裁已使伊拉克国力孱弱 ,满目疮痍 ,布什仍对萨达姆不除不快 ,其背后是否还有更深刻的战略意图和背景 ?如果布什“倒萨”成功 ,将会给世界战略格局带来什么影响 ?带着这些问题 ,我们特邀请中国现代国际关系研究所的几位专家进行对谈 ,所谈观点不一定完善 ,但其中所迸发出的思想火花和睿智若能有助于您更深入的思考 ,那将是我们的最大收获。     

中印经济改革成功与缺失的制度逻辑

中印两国经济改革取得了显著的成就,已经改变了整个世界经济格局,受到各国广泛关注。本文综合考察中印两国经济改革的绩效,探索中印两国改革成功的制度根源,剖析两国经济发展绩效差异的制度成因,认为中印两国未来发展更应关注制度层面的深层次改革,两国应该相互借鉴各自制度的优势,取长补短,以实现各自的强国之梦。     

朝鲜半岛的和平统一进程与东北亚安全机制

朝鲜与韩国的和平统一政策经历了一个演变和发展的过程.近年来,双方和平统一方案的趋同化有很大发展.北南方一致同意依靠本民族自己联合的力量实现国家统一.北方的初级阶段联邦制方案和南方的旨在实现统一的联合制方案互有共同性.如果美、俄、中、日四大国关系能够实现稳定和合作,将有利于朝鲜半岛的和平与统一进程.朝鲜半岛的和平与统一成为东北亚安全机制所要解决的主要问题之一.同时,这一进程又促进东北亚安全机制的形成.未来东北亚将形成多层次、多渠道、多类型的安全机制.这种机制应建立在"共同安全"和"合作安全"的基础之上.而且,随着新的安全合作机制的建立,应逐步弱化军事联盟的作用,并最终取代军事联盟.     

国际核不扩散体制的困境与出路

2006年核扩散与反扩散斗争空前激烈,伊朗民用核问题升温及朝鲜核试引起人们对国际防扩散体制行将崩溃的担忧。更深层的问题是,围绕民用核开发的国际斗争在全球传统能源告急的大背景下日益白热化,并导致核扩散内涵的不断深化与拓展,而以《不扩散核武器条约》为核心的国际防扩散体制漏洞进一步凸显,美国的单边主义及大国协调对此均显力不从心。探求有效的防扩散体制,确立面向未来的核秩序,要求国际社会制定出综合、全面、彻底的长效之策。     

Change and Stasis: The Institutionalisation of Developing Country Mitigation in the International Climate Regime

Diplomacy is an institution that has undergone tremendous change over the last century—not least in relation to the new, supranational institutions of the European Community/European Union. Nonetheless, it is only very recently that political scientists and historians have taken an interest in the changes brought about by European integration processes for diplomatic norms, roles, and practices. This article investigates the background for this late and limited interest. It does so by comparing and contrasting dominant theoretical trends that have shaped research on European diplomacy in the two disciplines since the Second World War. Against this background it briefly evaluates the recent surge in research on diplomacy and the European Union within political science, and it points to possible avenues for further, joint, research combining the transnational and sociological approaches adopted by political scientists with the attention to temporality and national specificities characteristic of historians' dealings with European diplomacy.     

俄罗斯参与东南亚基础设施建设的前景及对欧亚大陆的意义

俄罗斯官方于2016年正式提出建立"大欧亚伙伴关系",该倡议的重要组成部分之一是强化与东盟合作.俄罗斯与东盟的合作基础薄弱,跨越千山万水到东南亚开展基础设施建设更是不易,但双方合作的潜力是巨大的.俄罗斯方面,东盟是其大欧亚伙伴关系中不可或缺的一环,双方长期以来保持着比较友好的关系.同时,东南亚战略地位极其重要,不容域外势力所分化.东盟方面,其多元的对话平台致力于与各方开展建设性合作且能够顾及利益平衡,但长期受困于基础设施落后及各成员国发展水平不均等问题.因此,俄罗斯参与东南亚能源、交通和数字技术等领域的基础设施建设,不仅具备自身优势,还具有被当地所接纳的巨大空间.此外,欧亚大陆东部蓬勃的发展态势和"一带一路"建设也为双方在这方面开展合作提供了良好的机遇.     

The Bush Doctrine and the Iraq War: Neoconservatives Versus Realists

The aim of this article is to contribute to our understanding of both the debate over the war in Iraq and its implications for the future of U.S. foreign policy by examining the relationship between neoconservatism and realism. The article begins by establishing the connection between the tenets of neoconservatism and the arguments for war against Iraq. The primary focus is on the neoconservative Bush Doctrine that served as the primary justification for the Iraq War. Next, we turn to the arguments that realists put forth in their attempt to steer America away from the road to war. The realists, however, proved to be unsuccessful in their attempt to prevent war and in the final section we address the central question of the article; why did realism fail in the debate over Iraq?     

阿富汗在地区合作中的作用

2006年6月20日,阿富汗伊斯兰国总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊(HamidKarzai)应邀访问中国现代国际关系研究院,并就阿富汗当前形势,包括阿富汗和平与重建的成就、阿富汗如何重新融入地区与国际社会、阿富汗在地区发展与繁荣中的作用与地位,以及阿富汗的稳定对中国的具体利益何在等问题作了精彩演讲。现将卡尔扎伊总统的演讲全文刊发,以飨读者。     

亟待改进的也门医疗卫生状况

据也门计划与发展部所属的中央统计局有关资料显示,2001年也门在医疗卫生部门共投入预算资金约1.31亿美元,占总预算的4.6%,较2000年仅增长0.6%。这意味着也门政府平均每年投入到每个国民身上的医疗保健费用仅为7美元。无论按何种标准都太少。造成这一局面的原因,以及制约也门医