政治转型中的制度因素：泰国选举制度改革研究

本文认为,泰国政局持续动荡的重要原因,在于各派政治利益集团在重新划定权力边界的政治转型过程中始终未能在政治制度层面达成显规则与潜规则的相互契合。尽管各方对改变“小党林立”格局存在共识,但“反他信”阵营的既得利益集团偏好“两党对峙”格局,而“挺他信”阵营的新兴利益集团倾向“一党优势”格局。由于两派都存在对“实际控制力一潜规则权力边界”的错位误判,使得各方难以通过选举制度的显规则调整来重新划定彼此间的权力边界,从而导致持续的政治冲突与角力。     

When More Media Equals Less News: Patterns of Content Homogenization in Argentina's Leading Print and Online Newspapers

This article examines content homogeneity, understood as the degree to which different media focus on the same stories during a particular news cycle, in Argentina's leading print and online newspapers. It focuses on the role of technical practices across media and over time—during a decade for print and during 24 hours for online. The analysis shows three main patterns of homogenization: (a) an increase in the level of homogeneity in print newspapers tied to their online counterparts' practice of publishing breaking and developing stories during the day, (b) an increase in the level of homogeneity in online newspapers as the day unfolds, and (c) a densely interconnected web of homogeneity across print and online newspapers in 2005. We draw from these findings to make contributions to research on online news and media sociology and to reflect upon the direction and meaning of changes in journalistic form in the current media environment.     

中印经济转型中的所有制改革比较

所有制改革是中印经济转型中非常重要的改革内容，其基本内容包括所有制结构的调整和国有企业的改革两个方面。围绕这两个方面，中国实施了增量改革、抓大放小以及大型国有企业的公司化等很多重大的改革措施。印度也实施了放松对私营经济部门的管制、所有制结构的战略性调整以及公营企业的改革等诸多措施。两国在所有制方面的改革存在很多共同之处，但也存在明显的差别。     

从瓦杰帕伊政府大选失败看印度经济改革的几点教训

2004年初印度大选,是由执政的印度人民党瓦杰帕伊政府提前举行的。印度人民党政府认为稳操胜券。但是大选结果却令印度人民党大失所望,在野8年的国大党胜出。尽管瓦杰帕伊政府失败的原因较多,然而经济改革的失误却是重要原因之一。本文试图从瓦杰帕伊政府大选中的失败总结印度经济改革的若干教训。     

Gender and Negotiation in the Small: Are Women (Perceived to Be) More Cooperative than Men?

We surveyed research by experimental economists that examines gender differences in negotiation in the context of two simple, two-player games. Our purpose is to uncover empirical regularities in the results that might be useful to teachers or practitioners of negotiation. In the dictator game, one player unilaterally determines the division of a fixed amount of money. In the ultimatum game, one player offers a division and the other must accept or reject that offer; if rejected, both players receive a zero payoff. The results have shown that, on balance, women tend to be more egalitarian than men, to expect and ask for less in the negotiation. Women also seem to be more responsive to the context of a negotiation and are less likely to fail to reach an agreement than men. These differences are small, however, in comparison with differences in expectations about what women and men will do. We conclude that stereotyping is alive and well in negotiations and that this can help or hinder negotiation outcomes, depending on the context.     

What a Little Democracy Can Do: Comparing Trajectories of Reform in Malaysia and Indonesia

Economic crisis sparked political mobilization in both Malaysia and Indonesia in the late 1990s, but with very different results. Reformism in competitive electoral authoritarian Malaysia took a largely electoral route, yielding marginal, top-down institutional change and the enhancement of democratic norms. The hegemonic electoral authoritarian regime in neighbouring Indonesia, on the other hand, was toppled by a sudden upsurge of grass-roots protest, encouraged by elite factionalism. Changes to Indonesian political institutions and personnel since then have disappointed many reformers, and mounting cynicism endangers the entrenchment of democratic political culture. The article argues that a relatively more democratic system grants more space for autonomous challengers to organize and mobilize over the long term than a less open system does. Specifically, civil society agents in the former may accumulate both social capital and its organizational-level counterpart, coalitional capital, facilitating mobilization. Such a regime, though, is better able to contain or otherwise defuse protest than is a more autocratic variant. The latter is thus more vulnerable to dramatic collapse, despite its fragmented political opposition, and faces serious hurdles in subsequent democratic consolidation.     

中印经济改革成功与缺失的制度逻辑

中印两国经济改革取得了显著的成就,已经改变了整个世界经济格局,受到各国广泛关注。本文综合考察中印两国经济改革的绩效,探索中印两国改革成功的制度根源,剖析两国经济发展绩效差异的制度成因,认为中印两国未来发展更应关注制度层面的深层次改革,两国应该相互借鉴各自制度的优势,取长补短,以实现各自的强国之梦。     

Electoral competition and democratic decline in Nicaragua: uncovering an electorally viable platform for the right

Between the 1980s and 2006 Nicaragua was a competitive democracy where parties of the left and right won national presidential elections and relinquished power when their terms ended. More recently the quality of Nicaragua’s democracy has deteriorated. This change is due partly to autocratic behaviour by the elected leftist president, Daniel Ortega. But democratic decline is also the result of factional divisions and vague, outmoded policy commitments on the right that have crippled its electoral competitiveness, enabling Ortega’s behaviour. Utilizing an experimental research design, this article identifies two modernized policy platforms that could significantly broaden rightist electoral support in presidential campaigns, aiding democratic resurgence in Nicaragua. At a point when opposition parties are struggling to retain strength and coherence in many other democracies, the study presents a research strategy that could help clarify the ways such parties might reinvigorate their electoral competitiveness.     

On the Communicative Underpinnings of Campaign Effects: Presidential Debates,Citizen Communication,and Polarization in Evaluations of Candidates

Previous research on presidential debates has largely focused on direct effects of debates on viewers. By expanding the context of debate effects to post-debate citizen communication, this study moves beyond the direct and immediate impact of debate viewing and investigates indirect effects of debate viewing mediated by debate-induced citizen communication. Results from two-wave panel data collected before and after the 2004 presidential debates show that, as previous literature has suggested, debate viewing leads to partisan reinforcement and that these debate effects are in part mediated through post-debate political conversation. These findings provide a new layer of complexity to our understanding of the mechanisms underlying debate effects.     

Leadership in the WTO: Brazil,India and the Doha development agenda

The Doha round of multilateral negotiations has witnessed the relocation of Southern powers towards the core of the World Trade Organization (WTO) decision-making structure. Brazil and India are the only developing countries that have participated consistently in all major ministerial phases of the Doha round between 2001 and 2008. Their consolidation as trading powers cannot be attributed solely to their status as emerging economies. Their projected legitimacy as representatives of the global South has operated as a catalyst in facilitating their relocation. In various phases of negotiations, however, Brazil and India have refrained from playing a proactive role in driving negotiations forward. Their defensive stance has raised questions about the two countries' prospects for systemic leadership in world trade. In explaining this condition, this article will argue that Brazilian and Indian trade diplomacy is consistently directed towards maintaining broad bases of followership. Brazil and India are disposed to exercise assertive leadership only when that accommodates the expectations and preferences of their followership in the global South. Their preoccupation with constantly reasserting their Third World image often renders blocking agreement the preferable strategy to avoid paying a high price in terms of legitimacy.     

The Irish Meet the Welsh Wizard: Character,Narrative, and Political Rationality in the Formation of the Irish Free State

The negotiations that led to the formation of the Irish Free State in 1921 form the focus of this article. A longstanding interpretation of these negotiations has the British finessing the Irish by playing on the weaknesses of character of the Irish delegation. This interpretation is both flawed and influential. On one level, the article questions its historical accuracy and proposes an alternative. On another level, the article seeks to account for its enduring importance. This interpretation plays a role in a larger narrative of Anglo-Irish relations that is rooted in British colonialism and Irish nationalism.     

Actions, practices and historical structures: the partition of India

This article develops an explanation of how actions emerge insuccession. It shows how the actions of a subject, linked byrelations of successful precedent, form practices. These practicescause each other, in specific ways, to repeat. These interdependentpractices are self-reproducing historical structures. By reproducingitself in this way, a historical structure causes characteristic,uneven trends of historical change. An account of a historicalstructure therefore is the specification of its practices andof the ways in which they cause each other to repeat. The articlepresents an empirical demonstration of the theory with the caseof the political process that led to the partition of the BritishIndian empire into India and Pakistan. The theory presentedbelow is more elaborate, explicit and ontologically coherentthan the conceptions of historical structures in the historicalsociology literature. It has direct empirical reference, unlikethe metatheoretical literature.     

Electoral reform and public policy outcomes in Thailand: the politics of the 30-Baht health scheme

How do changes in electoral rules affect the nature of public policy outcomes? The current evidence supporting institutional theories that answer this question stems almost entirely from quantitative cross-country studies, the data of which contain very little within-unit variation. Indeed, while there are many country-level accounts of how changes in electoral rules affect such phenomena as the number of parties or voter turnout, there are few studies of how electoral reform affects public policy outcomes. This article contributes to this latter endeavor by providing a detailed analysis of electoral reform and the public policy process in Thailand through an examination of the 1997 electoral reforms. Specifically, the author examines four aspects of policy-making: policy formulation, policy platforms, policy content, and policy outcomes. The article finds that candidates in the pre-1997 era campaigned on broad, generic platforms; parties had no independent means of technical policy expertise; the government targeted health resources to narrow geographic areas; and health was underprovided in Thai society. Conversely, candidates in the post-1997 era relied more on a strong, detailed national health policy; parties created mechanisms to formulate health policy independently; the government allocated health resources broadly to the entire nation through the introduction of a universal health care system, and health outcomes improved. The author attributes these changes in the policy process to the 1997 electoral reform, which increased both constituency breadth (the proportion of the population to which politicians were accountable) and majoritarianism.     

中国、印度在俄罗斯外交中的定位--《当代全球化进程中的俄中印》介评

中国、印度均为亚洲大国 ,俄罗斯近年来奉行灵活、积极的亚洲外交政策 ,发展与亚洲各国的友好合作关系 ,同中国建立战略协作伙伴关系 ,并签署《睦邻友好合作条约》的同时 ,与印度也建立了战略伙伴关系。但在俄外交的深层考虑当中 ,将中、印视为其真正的盟友吗 ?中、印两国在俄外交政策中的地位又有哪些不同 ?1998年由莫斯科社会科学出版社出版的《当代全球化进程中的俄中印》(Россия、Китай、Индиявпроцессесовременнойглобальзации)一书可能会给我们一些启示。该书由俄著名亚洲问题专家格…     

The power triangle in the Indian Ocean: China,India and the United States

The Indian Ocean is increasingly becoming the point of focus in assessing Asia's future security challenges. As both India and China are building up their naval presence in the Indian Ocean and as China's stakes in the region (protecting its maritime trade) interact with India's aspirations (being the regional dominant power and security provider), tensions are likely to rise. The United States has an established role in the Indian Ocean, and its approach to the contestation between Indian and Chinese interests may play a key role in limiting frictions. These developments have led many analysts to foresee the emergence of a balance of power system in the Indian Ocean region and East Asia which would be comparable to that of nineteenth-century Europe. In presenting the interplay between the three major stakeholders in the Indian Ocean, this paper aims to outline the implications of a balance of power system in the Indian Ocean region and demonstrate that it may not guarantee peace and stability, but, with regard to Organski's ‘power transition’ theory, could lead to quite the contrary.