Oil,Natural Gas,and Intrastate Conflict: Does Ownership Matter?

The impact of natural resources on intrastate violence has been increasingly analyzed in the peace and conflict literature. Surprisingly, little quantitative evidence has been gathered on the effects of the resource-ownership structure on internal violence. This article uses a novel data set on oil and natural gas property rights, covering 40 countries during the period 1989–2010. The results of regression analyses employing logit models reveal that the curvilinear effect between hydrocarbon production and civil conflict onset—often found in previous studies—only applies to countries in which oil and gas is extracted by state-owned companies. The findings suggest that only state-controlled hydrocarbon production might entail peace-buying mechanisms such as specific clientelistic practices, patronage networks, welfare policies, and/or coercion. At the same time, it seems that greed and grievance are more pronounced whenever resources lie in the hands of the state. Exploring the within-country variation, further analyses reveal that divergent welfare spending patterns are likely to be one causal channel driving the relationship between resource ownership and internal violence.     

International Order in the 21st Century and China''''s Foreign Policy

Dramatic changes have occurred in the post-Cold Warworld strategic configuration and international order withtheir replacements burgeoning. This confronts nations, bigpowers in particular, with new strategic choices. Indeed unfol-ding before us is a contention among them for seizing the initia-tive in the emerging international landscape in the21st century.Thus how to correctly assess and respond to these changes forpursuing a reasonable strategy and selecting a right policy op-tion is not on…     

Can Russia's Quest for the New International Order Succeed?

A genesis and development of the conflict in Ukraine demonstrated fragility of the international security system and its inability to guard sovereignty of the smaller or weaker nations. By creating and then manipulating conflicts, Russia is gaining leverage over the decision making on political and economic development, governance issues, and the external alliances of those countries. By challenging sovereignty of smaller states, and forcibly changing their borders, Russia is challenging existing international order and the basic principles of Helsinki Final Act on Security and Co-operation in Europe of 1975, to which the Soviet Union, and its successor state, Russian Federation, are signatories. For the interests of global stability, it is a priority to bring Russia back to the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) without any concessions on principles of sovereignty for all OSCE member states.     

Oil Scarcity Ideology in US Foreign Policy, 1908–97

Over the past century peak oil forecasts have had a profound influence on US foreign policy. Unquestioned acceptance of these forecasts, all of which proved wrong, repeatedly led policymakers to assume that rival powers sought to seize dwindling supplies or that disaffected exporter states would decline to sell. Perennial expectation of impending scarcity elevated the perceived importance of foreign oil, especially from the Middle East (ME). In response, increasingly aggressive US policies were adopted to secure ME oil. I call belief in an oil scarcity imperative for aggressive policy oil scarcity ideology. Policymakers’ concerns over oil's availability were repeatedly challenged by market information, which was always ignored. Recurring pessimism over future supply during times of high price was always followed by oversupply and low price, yet aggressive polices to secure supply were never reassessed after scarcity failed to materialize. Scarcity ideology's exemption from scrutiny drove a policy ratchet: US–ME policy could become more aggressive, but not less.     

A More Pragmatic and Flexible Foreign Policy

During his second tenure, Clinton will pay more attention to diplomatic workand may make some adjustments in his foreign policy while maintainingcontinuity of the policy during his first tenure.1. The guideline of foreign policy of the new administration would be charac-terized by the following three features:     

India''''s Adjustment of Foreign Policy and Sino-Indian Relations

Since the beginning of this year, India has shown a series of marvelous accomplishments in foreign policy, of which, beside dramatic change of relations with, Pakistan, perhaps the most eye-catching is the rapid warm-up of Sino-lndian relations. During the     

Human Rights and Foreign Policy: Wilson and the Greek Dictators, 1967–1970

The military coup of 21 April 1967 brought to power a repressive dictatorship in Greece. It proceeded to deprive Greeks of their human rights and civil liberties, outraged international public opinion and strained transatlantic relations during the Cold War. The “Greek case” culminated in the withdrawal of Greece from the Council of Europe and calls for its expulsion from NATO. This article will analyse the foreign policy considerations that determined British policy towards the Greek junta during 1967—such as Cold War realities, alliance dynamics, economic and commercial imperatives, regional instability in the Mediterranean and domestic pressures. It will look at how these factors coalesced into shaping British policy towards the Greek junta into one in which human rights had little bearing. The article will also consider the impact of the “Greek case” on the image and credibility of the Labour government of 1966–1970 and explain why vociferous anti-junta activities in London were to create such policy difficulties for the British government.     

The European Union Global Strategy: What Kind of Foreign Policy Identity?

Some dismiss the recent EU Global Strategy as a “triumph of hope over experience”, an impracticable and therefore ultimately irrelevant statement; others are enthusiastic about what they see as perseverance and renewed ambition in the face of the present crisis. Although the 2016 Strategy appears more modest than its 2003 predecessor in operational terms, the range of deliberations that fed into it and the quality of the document itself demonstrate a greater maturity of reflection on foreign policy. A critical reading of the document shows that concepts such as normative power and differentiated inclusion of neighbours in the EU’s system of governance have all but disappeared. The emerging EU identity appears to be debilitated by the centrifugal processes of internal contestation and a drastically downsized claim for external power projection. An alternative plan for action will have to deal with the Union’s vulnerabilities and carve out a role that is distinct, yet in line with this new self-understanding.     

The Foreign Policy of Italian Regions: Not Much Ado About Something?

What does regional external power mean? To what extent is it allowed? What are the limits for its exercise? And how is it carried out in today's quasi-federal Italy? Not only is regional foreign policy a litmus test for the legal development of a compound system; it is also extremely telling as far as the political maturity of the actors in a multi-level governmental system is concerned. In the present constitutional and political framework in Italy, there is a cleavage between the rather developed normative framework and the immature practical reality. Regional foreign policy is something very important about which too little ado is made.     

Characteristics of China''''s Foreign Policy:Putting Peace First

Having entered into the new century, the world is marked by unfathomable vicissitudes. The artful maneuver of China's foreign policy under this backdrop attracts wide attention. And this must be attributed to the fact that China's diplomacy highlights "pe…     

International Environments and Sino-U.S. Interactions:Strategic Thinking and Policy Planning

With the unfolding of the new century, the international system and order have been undergoing important changes. The fact that the United States is the world's premier power and China is an emerging power has become two prominent subjects of the contemporary international relations. The     

Sir Austen Chamberlain and British Foreign Policy 1931–37

This article seeks to analyze Sir Austen Chamberlain’s critique of British foreign policy in the six years before his death in 1937. It presents Chamberlain as one of the most perceptive contemporary observers of the international scene, and in particular of Hitler’s Germany. Unusually among British politicians, Chamberlain drew a direct causal connection between the domestic policy of the Nazi regime and its likely behaviour in the international arena. However, it is suggested that the basis for his understanding was an innate anti-Germanism, which can be dated back to his experiences as a young man in the 1880s.     

Scientific Outlook on Development and China＇s Foreign Policy

More than half a century has passed since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China. There have been successes as well as failures in China＇s policies and practices at home and abroad. The failures are stepping stones for success; lessons drawn from errors lead to truth. Chinese leader Hu Jintao recently spoke about ＂Scientific Outlook on Development, ＂＇ a summary of past history and an important guiding principle for China＇s economic and social development both now and in future. The authors believe that this is a major development in China＇s strategic thinking following Deng Xiaoping＇s ＂Reform and Opening Up＂ and Jiang Zemin＇s ＂Three Representatives＂ and that it should be upheld and applied to foreign policy decision making.     

The Future and Influence of the European Common Foreign and Security Policy

AftertheColdWarespeciallyafter″9·11″incidenttheinternationalsituationhasprofoundlychangedandthepoliticalturbulencehasintensified.Securi-tyissuesaresoprominentthatithasbecomeoneofthetopicsfordiscussionworldwidearousinggreatattentionfromallcountriesespeciallythebigpow-ers.InthisregardtheEUhasbeenmakingagreatefforttoworkoutitscommonforeignandsecuritypolicyandcarrieditforwardasthefocalpointintheconstructionofintegration.IwillputforwardthreepointsinregardtotheprospectsofEUcom-monforeignandsecu…     

European Union Armaments Policy: Options for Small States?

Abstract

This article addresses the question of small states and their future role in any EU armaments policy. It argues that their traditional tactics of demanding equality of membership in armaments organisations, using protectionist tactics to preserve the indigenous defence industry and using their home markets as a method of gaining advantages for their firms, are increasingly failing at the EU level. A combination of their own choices on defence spending, the agreement to allow permanent structured cooperation within the European Defence Agency and the Commission's efforts to liberalise the defence procurement market seem likely to force most small states into the backseat of EU armaments policy-making.