East Asia Rolls On

The economic recovery in East Asia remains unchanged on its upward trajectory despite the earthquake and devastating tsunami in Japan on March 11.Growth in East Asia slowed after a sharp rebound from the global financial crisis but is improving nonetheless.The World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update issued on March 21 projects real GDP growth in East Asia will be smaller than that of 2010 in the following two years.Besides future East Asian economic trends,the report also discusses the impact of the Japanese catastrophe.Edited excerpts follow:     

SLOWER BUT HEALTHIER GROWTH

China maintains high GDP growth,low unemployment rate and low inflation against the backdrop of a fragile global economic recovery     

Prescribing Economic Remedies

After slowly emerging from the financial crisis,the world economy has left the worst behind it.But the road ahead will by no means be a smooth one.Staggering unemployment,sovereign debt crises and inflationary jitters continue to stretch the nerves of policymakers.     

The Next Blows?

The unfolding global financial crisis is arousing jitters about another round of heavy blows to the world economy, which may be intensified by the possible U.S. government takeover of Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. lg, Chief Economist of the Asia-Pacific region for Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong ) Ltd., published an article in the Securities Market Weekly, warning about five other major crashes that might dampen global economic recovery. Edited excerpts follow.     

WB Advice

Despite the negative impact of the European debt crisis,the global growth outlook remains favorable,largely because of the strength of emerging markets.China,as the largest emerging economy,has contributed handsomely to the global economic recovery.In China,after a rapid start at the beginning of the year,growth is likely to ease,mainly because of a partial normalization of the macro policy stance and recent property measures,said the World Bank in its latest China Quarterly Update released on June 18.Edited excerpts follow:     

Greeting A Brand-New Year

Six lessons for the international community to take As we move into the new year with cautious optimism while still facing lingering challenges from 2020, the annus horribilis, and prepare for other challenges, including global warming and those that have not yet emerged but surely will, here are six intersecting lessons to consider as we continue containment and recovery efforts.     

Living a Quality Life

The growth of high-quality consumption among Chinas expanding and increasingly more discerning middle-class has become a major drawcard for global brands to enter the Chinese market. China is the only major economy that achieved positive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic last year.At the first China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE) held in Haikou,Hainan Province in May,top global luxury groups such as LVMH,Richemont,and Kering all had a prominent presence.The global growth of Hublot,a Swiss watch brand under the LVMH Group,is driven mainly by Chinese sales.In 2010,the Chinese mainland market accounted for less than one percent of its global sales,and in 2020 this proportion was closer to 15 percent.According to a research report released by Bain & Company,global luxury sales in 2020 shrank by 23 percent to (∈) 217 billion,compared with 2019.     

RISK ASSESSMENT

The world economy has to be on the lookout for potential risks in the post-COVID-19 era Although COVID-19 plunged the global economy into the worst recession since World War II,clear signs of recovery have emerged.China began leading the way by pocketing positive growth in 2020 after bringing the epidemic under control.The U.S.and European countries initiated a bid for economic rebound via aggressive stimulus measures.     

MARKET WATCH

Manufacturing Slackens The momentum of the manufacturing sector showed signs of wearing off in July,raising concerns over an economic slowdown.     

Ready for RMB Reform

Now that the global recovery has taken hold and with the Chinese economy gaining ground,China's central bank-the People's Bank of China-has decided to proceed with reform of the renminbi(yuan)exchange rate regime and improve the flexibility.The central bank's spokesman on June 20 addressed a number of concerns over the issue in a statement posted on its website.Edited excerpts follow:     

SELF-HELP PARTICIPATION AND QUALITY OF LIFE:

This report explores mental health outcomes reported by the self-help group leaders and administrators of Recovery, Inc.: The Association of Nervous and Former Mental Patients. Following Campbell (1976), both global and domain-specific quality of life indicators are used as measures of mental health. The contributions of the leader's income, health history, and Recovery career variables are also examined and the general findings are compared to a normative population. The data indicates that Recovery participation is associated with positive mental status reports, particularly in global self-ratings. Residual areas requiring supplementary human service intervention are specified.     

Addressing Common Concerns Through Cooperation

Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward a Global Development Initiative when addressing the 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly via video link on September 21. The initiative is to promote global economic recovery, as well as more balanced, greener and inclusive development, and to expedite the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The initiative calls for fostering global development partnerships, with priority given to cooperation on poverty alleviation, food security, COVID-19 response and vaccines, development financing, and climate change, among other areas. This initiative is particularly significant for BRICS countries, as their ability to take the lead in executing it can contribute a lot to driving the full-fledged development of their respective regions. Meanwhile, the newly proposed points echo the major concerns of BRICS countries.     

MARKET WATCH

TO THE POINT: China's economy showed initial signs of recovery, although a full revival is still far away. An array of currency-swap packages is helping the renminbi to "go global." Car sales rallied in March in quick response to the government's stimulus measures. The insurance regulator widened the channels for domestic insurers to directly invest in stock and bond markets. The Export-Import Bank of China provided a credit line to withering shipbuilders.     

Integration Key to Asia's Sustained Economic Recovery

THE Asian economy is projected to sustain recovery,and its annual growth rate may exceed 6.5 percent this year,as integration in regional trade strengthens,according to a key report is-sued on April 18. The COVID-19 pandemic will be the main factor directly affecting the eco-nomic activities in Asia,but the value chain is converging to China,thanks to the advanced regional integration of trade in goods and services,according to the flagship report of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2021.The forum opened on April 18 in Boao,a coastal town in south Chinas Hainan Province.     

MARKET WATCH

Foreign media slammed the Chinese Government's proposal that its ministries and agencies should purchase only Chinese products. But the government was forced to make such suggestion because domestic producers said they have been treated unfairly in bidding for government-supported projects. A World Bank report said China's economy was respectably sound during the first half of the year given the global financial meltdown. The country's fiscal revenue ended its sevenmonth decline and gained an encouraging 4....     

MARKET WATCH

The real estate market fever is cooling down with signs of price declines emerging.Despite proliferating worries about the safety of dollar assets,China has boosted its holdings in U.S.Treasury securities for four consecutive months.China maintains its appeal to foreign investors as reflected by strong FDI inflows.Internet companies are picking up momentum,raising hopes for a renewal of global investors’confidence in China-concept stocks.State-owned enterprises report handsome profits,but challenges remain.     

The Spying Scandal and Transatlantic Ties

正On May 30, a consortium of major European media outlets brought to light yet another spying scandal involving the United States' systematic and longterm espionage campaign against its closest European allies. According to a report following an internal investigation of the Danish Defense Intelligence Services(FE) completed in 2015, the U.S. National Security Agency(NSA), notorious for its mass global signals intelligence collection,     

MARKET WATCH

Stock Market Woes The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has retreated more than 12 percent so far this year as lingering concerns over tightening monetary policies keep the mood subdued.     

China's Economic Advance Gives Hope to the Developing World

C HINA'S economic progress since the com-mencement of its reform and opening-up in 1978 gives hope to every developing nation that if China can do it,so can we.A 2019 report by Switzerland-based financial servic-es company Credit Suisse Group said that China was this century's champion in wealth creation and the figures it cites are truly amazing.Having successfully cushioned the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009,unlike so many other nations,China has seen total household wealth rise from US $3.7 trillion in 2000 to US $63.8 tril-lion in 2018,an exponential 17-fold increment.     

MARKET WATCH

Cooling the Rush China has pushed all the buttons to tame the red-hot property market where price surges are bringing worries of a bubble burst to a boiling point.