Richard Nixon and Economic Nationalism in Latin America: The Problem of Expropriations, 1969–1974

During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Nixon administration confronted the problem of how best to protect US economic interests in Latin America during a period of rising economic nationalism. After extensive debate, the president approved a policy designed to deter expropriations and rein in nationalist economic sentiment by threatening to terminate US and international financial assistance to countries that expropriated American holdings without prompt and adequate compensation. As it turned out, however, this policy was little short of a disaster. Nixon's stance heightened American unpopularity during a period when US credibility in Latin America was already on the wane, and failed to have any restraining effect on either the number of expropriations by Latin American countries or the strength of economic nationalism in the area. Informed by domestic and bureaucratic pressures and the same ideological proclivities that have long characterized American relations with the underdeveloped world, Nixon's policy on the expropriations issue ultimately proved ineffective and even pernicious to US interests in Latin America.     

大国安全与地区发展的悖论?——基于冷战早期美拉关系的考察

为了遏制共产主义的发展,战后初期美国积极在西半球编织反共防务安全体系。与此相比,美国对拉美国家的经济援助需求消极怠慢,对它们所面临的经济发展问题视而不见,采取了“贸易而非援助”的经济政策,激化了美拉矛盾。20世纪五六十年代,一些拉美国家实行了国有化和土改等民族主义改革,并同苏联加强贸易往来,反美反独裁的游击运动风起云涌。在美国看来,这与其在西半球的经济安全和反共战略相悖。为了化解危机,美国一方面以反共和集体安全为名,对“敌对”政权进行军事干预,另一方面也在不断调整自身政策,加大对拉美国家的经济援助力度。不论怎样,谋求和巩固在西半球的霸主地位始终是美国制定拉美政策的根本目的,安全和稳定是其维护的主要利益。在理论上,只有拉美国家的深层经济发展问题得到有效解决,才能消除不稳定的隐患,所以,美国国家安全与拉美地区发展是并行不悖的。但在现实中,由于拉美国家的既得利益集团与美国关系密切,美国不可能切实推进拉美国家的经济改革,同时美国又常以安全防务政策化解由经济发展引发的拉美问题,这种立场上的偏差注定了美国提出的经济改革方案的“无效性”,而仅仅是一种权宜之计。     

An ‘Aladdin's lamp’ for free enterprise: Eisenhower,fiscal conservatism,and Latin American nationalism, 1953–61

This study explores the Eisenhower administration's efforts to promote free trade and investment policies in Latin America. US officials believed that private capital investment, rather than US foreign aid, would best promote Latin American economic development and improve its abiliry to purchase American products. By eliminating the need for foreign aid, Latin American economic autarky complemented Eisenhower's zeal for fiscal conservatism. Although most scholars have focused on the primacy of anti-communism in Eisenhower's inter-American policies, this study contends that economic nationalism posed the greatest threat to Eisenhower's policies. US officials eventually responded by expanding aid to Latin America, but the additional economic aid was always intended to complement private capital, rather than replace it. This article, based upon the papers of influential administration officials and State Department records, sheds considerable light as to why the United States promoted free trade and investment policies in the developing world, as it still does today.     

An 'Aladdin's lamp' for free enterprise: Eisenhower, fiscal conservatism, and Latin American nationalism, 1953-61

This study explores the Eisenhower administration's efforts to promote free trade and investment policies in Latin America. US officials believed that private capital investment, rather than US foreign aid, would best promote Latin American economic development and improve its abiliry to purchase American products. By eliminating the need for foreign aid, Latin American economic autarky complemented Eisenhower's zeal for fiscal conservatism. Although most scholars have focused on the primacy of anti-communism in Eisenhower's inter-American policies, this study contends that economic nationalism posed the greatest threat to Eisenhower's policies. US officials eventually responded by expanding aid to Latin America, but the additional economic aid was always intended to complement private capital, rather than replace it. This article, based upon the papers of influential administration officials and State Department records, sheds considerable light as to why the United States promoted free trade and investment policies in the developing world, as it still does today.     

中国与拉美国家关系中的美国因素

近年来,中国与拉美国家的关系持续快速发展引起美国特朗普政府的警惕,美国采取多重手段公开阻扰中拉合作,包括在拉美事务上频频发表反华言论、加大打击拉美左翼政权、拉拢右翼政权组建"反华阵营",并警告与中国新建交的拉美国家。特朗普政府施压手段取得了一定成效,部分拉美国家对华态度有所调整,但从长远看,基于中美关系、美拉关系及中拉关系的本质特点,未来中拉合作仍将保持良好势头。不可忽视的是,美国将继续阻扰中拉关系发展。中国应妥善应对中拉关系中的美国因素,保证中美拉三边关系良性互动。     

驯服印尼激进民族主义——肯尼迪政府对印尼的政策（1961—1963年）

肯尼迪政府上台后调整了对印尼政策,在促成西伊利安争端和平解决之后,在印尼发起了新的一轮外交攻势,试图抓住当前美印(尼)关系的转机,通过经济手段加强印尼与西方联系的纽带,把印尼注意力由国际事务转向解决国内问题,以促进改造印尼民族主义,影响印尼政治构成和国内外政策的长远目标。这一时期,美国改造印尼民族主义的政策,英国维持在东南亚的势力与影响的目标,以及苏加诺在地区内部消除一切殖民主义残余的努力之间产生了错综复杂、难以调和的矛盾。印尼苏加诺政权对于来自美国的压力也不会轻易就范。肯尼迪政府的对印尼政策不免于以失望告终。     

Mixing Grand Strategies: Trump and International Security

ABSTRACT

When a new President is elected in the United States, the first thing analysts do is define that President’s grand strategy; yet, naming Donald Trump’s grand strategy was a difficult task as his pre-election speeches often contradicted traditional US foreign policy norms. Trump’s ambiguous grand strategy combines two US foreign policy strategies: nationalism in the sense that his preference is for unilateral policies prioritising American interests, and a traditional foreign policy approach, as seen in the moves taken against China and Iran. Surprisingly, this grand strategy unintentionally contributes to cooperation in Eurasia, as actors like Russia, China, Turkey, India and the European Union continue to try to balance the threat from the United States instead of competing with each other, while smaller countries are reluctant to challenge the regional powers due to mistrust towards Trump.     

How soon is now? The effects of the IMF on economic reforms in Latin America

This study assesses the effects of IMF loans on economic liberalization in Latin America. Specifically, we are interested in whether the Fund receives greater cooperation from Latin American borrowers in the initiation of some economic reforms over others. Using a two-stage treatment effects model as well as panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) regression for 15 Latin American countries from 1980 to 2003, we find that IMF participation tends to lead to greater trade and capital reforms and less reform in privatization. These relationships are tempered by the country??s relationship with the United States along with domestic group pressures.     

'Golf ball diplomacy': Richard Nixon and Japan, 1969-74

Nixon was one of the first American politicians to advocate the building of a strong US-Japan economic alliance and the Nixon administration laid the foundation for the healthy post-Vietnam dialogue that the Carter and Reagan administrations cultivated with Tokyo. This article examines that foundation, and its contribution to the general post-World War II US-Japan relationship. Vietnam changed America, and it even changed the way a once arch-cold warrior, Nixon, viewed the significance of US-Japan relations. After years of Washington's scoffing at or ignoring Japanese interests, this American 'discovery' of Japan was an important development in itself. Hence, this article also examines a relationship in transition which, for Nixon's America, was an important first step in the construction of a post-Vietnam view of Asian/Pacific cooperation.     

美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策及面临的挑战

自特朗普政府上任以来,美国对拉美政策奉行“新门罗主义”,加大了对拉美国家的干预,反映在经济、政治和安全等领域,如鼓噪“美国优先”,大打“贸易牌”“移民牌”,使前任奥巴马政府与古巴关系正常化的努力出现全面倒退,甚至拒绝承认委内瑞拉民选总统马杜罗而另行“任命”一个代理总统瓜伊多等。当今世界处于百年未有之大变局,拉美政治、经济格局也经历着深刻变化。中国、俄罗斯等在拉美的影响力不断增强。“一带一路”倡议在拉美落地生根,深化了中拉政治、经济互信;俄罗斯强硬支持委内瑞拉加剧了美俄博弈,导致美国“后院失火”的可能性增大,迫使特朗普深度调整美国对拉美政策。这一政策调整对美国究竟意味着全球战略扩张还是战略收缩,值得探讨。特朗普的拉美政策不仅会影响美拉关系及美拉双方的发展,也将影响中拉关系的发展。本文尝试对美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策的现状、原因和影响进行分析,并考察其面临的挑战。     

中国拉美现代化研究评述

随着中国改革开放和现代化建设的深化发展,现代化研究逐渐成为热门课题,中国学术界对拉美国家的现代化研究也逐渐深入。20世纪90年代以来,拉美现代化研究不断深化、拓宽,整体性研究和案例研究均衡发展,现代化主题成为中国拉美学术界近20年来的一项基本研究内容,涌现一批高质量的专著和学术论文。我国学术界对拉美现代化的研究主要集中于以下领域:拉美现代化理论研究、现代化的起始和启动、工业化的动力及进程、发展模式及其国际比较,以及与现代化进程相关的社会转型、政治制度变革、民众主义和矛盾冲突等。     

“Ultimate Destiny” Delayed: The Liberals,the Organization of American States,and Canadian Foreign Policy, 1963–1968

Until Canada joined in 1990, the issue of its membership in the Organisation of American States bedevilled Canadian foreign policy, which many observers saw as a decisive test of Ottawa’s interest in Latin America. Under the Liberal government of Lester Pearson, prime minister from 1963 to 1968, and the stewardship of his secretary of state for External Affairs, Paul Martin, Canada seemed poised to join OAS. But a mixture of foreign and domestic factors—including American intervention in the Dominican Republic, Cuba’s isolation within the hemisphere, and growing Canadian nationalism—ruined this initiative. Using the Pearson government’s policy toward the OAS as a lens through which to explore the direction of Canadian foreign relations in the 1960s, this analysis also examines competing views of Canada’s place in the world.     

约翰逊政府的对印尼政策（1964—1965年）

美国对印尼政策历来缺乏一个稳定的基础。如何判断苏加诺政权的性质并据此制订美国的政策,始终是困扰美国决策者的一大难题。进入1960年代后,高度紧张的地区局势与苏加诺激进政策更是构成了对约翰逊政府政治与决策资源的挑战。美国对苏加诺政权性质和对外政策意图判断的演变,是促成约翰逊政府改变对印尼政策的重要环节。这一认知过程大致经历了三个阶段:苏加诺间接挑战了美国在东南亚的利益;苏加诺蓄意采取了与美国为敌的政策;苏加诺与共产党国家结成了针对美国的政治联盟。美国的政策也相应由促成印尼与西方国家关系的缓和转向削弱苏加诺政权政治统治的基础。     

特朗普执政以来美国对拉美政策的调整及其影响

在美国的全球战略中,拉美地区历来占据着重要而特殊的位置。长期以来,美国视拉美为自己的“后院”,在拉美拥有独一无二的主导权和影响力。特朗普政府执政后,公开祭出“门罗主义”的旗帜,大幅度调整对拉美的政策,展现出更公开的干涉行径、更浓厚的利己色彩、更明显的分化企图和更强烈的排外取向,意在将拉美打造成一个政治上亲近美国、经贸上依赖美国、安全上不威胁美国的“后院”。短期看,特朗普政府对拉美的政策调整取得了一定的成效,对拉美的掌控有所强化。但长期看,美国和拉美地区之间的深层次矛盾和冲突并未完全纾解,在特定的时空背景下甚至存在进一步被激化的可能性;与此同时,特朗普政府对拉政策的调整还加剧了大国在拉美展开战略博弈的风险。特朗普政府的拉美政策如何进一步演变和发展,美拉关系如何变化,这些课题值得中国学界高度关注并深入研究。     

US Policy in Central Asia and Regional Security

The article focuses on American approaches to the problems of regional security and stability in post-Soviet Central Asia since the early 1990s. It discusses the priorities of US policies in Central Asia under the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and argues that the advancement of US interests in Central Asia requires a coherence between the region-wide and the country-level tiers of American policies. Furthermore, it is argued that since the mid-1990s the development of bilateral relations between Washington and Central Asian countries has not been accompanied by a region-wide policy aimed at reducing security risks in Central Asia. The paper also discusses implications of US activism in Central Asia for long-term regional stability.     

拉丁美洲与马克思主义的“错遇”

马克思主义建立在马克思、恩格斯以欧洲中心的经验基础之上,具有浓烈的欧洲色彩。马克思本人在1857年的文章中将拉丁美洲的“解放者”玻利瓦尔视为拿破仑三世滑稽的模仿者。马克思、恩格斯一般只在涉及欧洲问题的情况下,才会关心欧洲之外的世界。马克思、恩格斯去世之后,传承马克思主义的第二国际各社会主义政党也聚焦于欧洲自身的问题,很少关心欧洲之外的世界。但由于在殖民地问题上的立场影响到了第二国际各社会主义政党的选举,第二国际不得不讨论殖民地问题。为应对资产阶级的殖民政策,荷兰社会民主党代表提出了“社会主义殖民政策”问题。1907年第二国际第七次代表大会在德国斯图加特召开,与会代表就殖民地问题展开了激烈讨论。作为阿根廷社会党代表的曼努埃尔·乌加特参与了这次会议,随后形成的将马克思主义或社会主义与拉丁美洲民族主义结合在一起的基本思想,成为马克思主义或社会主义拉丁美洲化的开端,马克思主义或社会主义可以脱去其诞生时所具有的欧洲色彩。     

欧债危机对拉美经济的影响机制与拉美的政策措施及成效

在当前经济制度背景下,欧债危机主要通过贸易、投资和金融等机制影响拉美经济:欧盟需求不足可能使拉美国家的出口收益减少;欧盟信贷额度下降、股市波动、资本流动性减少,会减少对拉美国家的投资,导致拉美国家投资不足和金融市场不稳,对拉美国家的产业结构调整也会产生消极影响。面对危机,拉美国家的应对策略并非临时的或短期的政策,而是从长期应对危机的历史中汲取了经验和教训。拉美国家实行稳健的宏观经济政策和灵活的浮动汇率政策,通胀处于可控水平,银行监管适当,整体债务水平较低,加上较为充足的外汇储备和经济运行状况总体良好等因素,为拉美国家抵御欧债危机的冲击发挥了相当大的减缓作用。但是,欧债危机对拉美经济可能会存在长期效应。中国与拉美的贸易为拉美经济的发展提供了动力,但中拉关系中还存在很多不稳定因素。未来中拉之间的战略依存度将越来越高,经贸往来也将更加密切。     

Gerald Fitzmaurice (1865–1939), Chief Dragoman of the British Embassy in Turkey by Berridge,G.R

Nixon was one of the first American politicians to advocate the building of a strong US‐Japan economic alliance and the Nixon administration laid the foundation for the healthy post‐Vietnam dialogue that the Carter and Reagan administrations cultivated with Tokyo. This article examines that foundation, and its contribution to the general post‐World War II US‐Japan relationship. Vietnam changed America, and it even changed the way a once arch‐cold warrior, Nixon, viewed the significance of US‐Japan relations. After years of Washington's scoffing at or ignoring Japanese interests, this American ‘discovery’ of Japan was an important development in itself. Hence, this article also examines a relationship in transition which, for Nixon's America, was an important first step in the construction of a post‐Vietnam view of Asian/Pacific cooperation.     

拉美民众意识形态极化趋势及其影响

拉美国家近年来政局不稳的一个重要原因在于民众的意识形态出现了极化的趋势。本文分析了2012—2019年间“美洲晴雨表”中18个拉美国家的数据,发现自2014年以来,持极端意识形态的民众尤其是持极左观点的民众比重出现了显著上升,这主要是受到经济发展形势和各国执政党意识形态两个因素的交互影响。宏观上,以极左民众比重上升为特征的极化趋势主要是受到整个区域经济持续低迷和右翼政府的紧缩性经济政策影响。微观上,本文通过回归分析发现,民众对国家经济形势的判断与其所在国执政党的意识形态共同影响着其极化方向。在右翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越高,持极右观点的概率越低;在左翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越低,持极右观点的概率越高。最后,本文讨论了民众意识形态极化对拉美国家政局稳定的影响。本文发现,拉美极端民众尤其是极左民众参加抗议游行的概率显著高于温和民众。这意味着一国的极端民众比重越高,其发生大规模示威游行的概率越高。     

欧债危机对拉美经济的影响:现状及展望

2011年以来,欧洲主权债务危机不断深化,其未来发展存在重大不确定性。新兴经济体受到明显冲击,其经济增长速度明显下滑。随着欧债危机的深化,拉美经济的宏观稳定和金融稳定风险不断累积。拉美经济体面临着政策持续与政策退出、政策刺激与衍生风险、经济增长与金融稳定等目标之间的两难抉择。债务问题还将持续冲击金融市场,拉美经济体的主要金融市场中短期内将保持震荡甚至是下行格局,国际资本流动更加紊乱。未来欧债危机对拉美经济体的影响将体现为:全球经济可能二次探底,部分拉美经济体可能硬着陆,需警惕滞胀风险;全球总需求仍不足,拉美经济体出口将进一步放缓;国际资本流动可能逆转,拉美经济体金融风险需谨慎。