Modernization is alive and well and living in . . .

Democracy in Developing Countries, edited by Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Co.; Adamantine Press Ltd, London. (Vol. 1, in preparation; vol. 2, 1988; vols. 3 and 4, 1989.) Volume Two, Africa, xxix+314 pp., maps. £25.00 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–039–2 and 1–55587–040–6. Volume Three, Asia, xxix+489 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–041–4 and 1–55587–042–2. Volume Three, Latin America. xxix+515 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–043–0 and 1–55587–044–9.     

Dynamic Responsiveness in the U.S. Senate

I develop a theory of dynamic responsiveness that suggests that parties that win elections choose candidates who are more extreme and parties that lose elections choose candidates who are more moderate. Moreover, the size of past victories matters. Close elections yield little change, but landslides yield larger changes in the candidates offered by both parties. I test this theory by analyzing the relationship between Republican vote share in U.S. Senate elections and the ideology of candidates offered in the subsequent election. The results show that Republican (Democratic) victories in past elections yield candidates who are more (less) conservative in subsequent elections, and the effect is proportional to the margin of victory. This suggests that parties or candidates pay attention to past election returns. One major implication is that parties may remain polarized in spite of their responsiveness to the median voter .     

Policy voting in U.S. House primaries

ABSTRACT

This paper uses exit surveys of voters in four House primaries to ask how well voters are able to use primaries for the purpose of giving policy direction to their congressional parties. The surveys found that nearly half of voters could not recall the names of any candidate and that 11% were uncertain or could not recall for whom they had just voted. The surveys also found that nearly 40% of voters could not offer a political evaluation – that is, a like or dislike having political content – about any candidate, and that fewer than a quarter could offer political evaluations of as many as two candidates. The surveys found no evidence of policy-motivated voting in three of the four primaries, but substantial evidence of it in one. Yet even in that one race, voters split their support among three candidates sharing majority voter opinion on the key election issue and thereby opened the way for nomination of a candidate not sharing majority opinion. The paper concludes from this evidence that voters in these House primaries, and probably more widely, made little use of them for the purpose of giving policy direction to their parties.     

Issue Accountability in U.S. House Elections

Political Behavior - This paper analyzes the positions Members of Congress take on important aspects of public policy, voters’ preferences on those issues, and individual-level voting...     

Preemption in the U.S. Federal System

The sharp increase in the number of congressional partial andtotal preemption statutes and innovative use of preemption powerssince 1965 have produced major changes infederal-state relations.The Congress has become a unitary government in several regulatoryfields and also finances its policies in other fields inpartby imposing burdensome mandates and restraints on state andlocal governments. Current federalism theories fail to accountfor the changes produced by preemption or to address alternativesto preemption other than conditional grants-in-aid     

Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections?

In spite of substantial public controversy, very little reliable data exists concerning the frequency with which non-citizen immigrants participate in United States elections. Although such participation is a violation of election laws in most parts of the United States, enforcement depends principally on disclosure of citizenship status at the time of voter registration. This study examines participation rates by non-citizens using a nationally representative sample that includes non-citizen immigrants. We find that some non-citizens participate in U.S. elections, and that this participation has been large enough to change meaningful election outcomes including Electoral College votes, and Congressional elections. Non-citizen votes likely gave Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress.     

Strategic Voting in a U.S. Senate Election

Due to the strength of its two-party system, the opportunity for voters to strategically defect in favor of third party or independent candidates is rare in high profile American elections. Indeed, it has been almost a century since a third party candidate finished better than one of the major party presidential nominees—in 1912 Bull Moose Progressive Teddy Roosevelt finished ahead of Republican William H. Taft. In this study we examine strategic voting in a U.S. Senate election where the independent candidate also finished above one of the major party nominees. In the 2010 Florida Senate contest the sitting Governor Charlie Crist shed his Republican label in order to compete in the general election since he was certain to lose in the GOP primary to Marco Rubio, the eventual winner. Crist finished second by taking a substantial share of votes away from the third place candidate, Democrat Kendrick Meek. Because this type of contest seldom occurs, in American politics there is scant empirical research on strategic voting under these conditions. We employ an unobtrusive survey of a large sample of registered Floridians in order to assess the likelihood of strategic voting among respondents who preferred the Democrat Kendrick Meek. For voters who sincerely preferred the Democrat, a significant portion defected in favor of the Independent Charlie Crist if they expected him to finish ahead of Meek. Additionally, we find that after a major news story broke, in which former President Bill Clinton allegedly advised Meek to drop out of the race so that Crist might win, respondents surveyed after this event were more likely to vote strategically in favor of Crist. Our study clearly demonstrates the importance of political context. Under the appropriate conditions, we find a high likelihood of strategic voting.     

论美国行政改革市场化取向

“重塑政府”是美国在上世纪70年代末开始的行政改革,同时在学术界也进行了一场行政理论创新运动,其主要内 容是:1.政府功能定位的市场化;2.政府功能输出的市场化。     

W.E.B. Du Bois in Turn-of-the-Century Atlanta, 1897–1910

In the decade and a half between the completion of his Harvard Ph.D. (1895) and his founding of The Crisis for the NAACP (1910), African American historian and sociologist W.E.B. Du Bois laid the empirical foundations for modern sociology and the revisionist interpretation of history. Despite his prodigious academic efforts, he eventually lost faith in the ability of scholarship to help African Americans and he left academe for the NAACP and the world of advocacy.     

Minority Set-Aside Programs in the States After City of Richmond v. J. A. Croson Co.

In a series of decisions handed down during the 1988–1989term, the U.S. Supreme Court sent clear signals that its equalprotection analysis and affirmative action jurisprudence areundergoing reexamination. The most important affirmative actiondecision during the term was City of Richmond v. J. A. CrosonCo. The Court ruled that Richmond's minority business enterpriseprogram, which set aside 30 percent of the dollar amount ofgovernment construction contracts for minority-owned firms,violated the Fourteenth Amendment. In the wake of Croson, federaland state courts have considered other cases involving set-asideprograms, while a number of other programs have been abandoned,placed under evaluation, or modified to meet the guidelineslaid down by the Court.     

Recent Trends in U.S. Income and Expenditure Poverty

After many years of following similar trends, U.S. poverty rates measured by household spending in data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) fell between 2000 and 2008, while poverty measured by income rose. Comparisons of spending and income poverty in the CE with income poverty in other surveys, spending data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and a time series of employment levels, find the CE to be the outlier. The findings do not bear directly on the primary use of CE data in providing category weights for calculation of the Consumer Price Index, but do require explanation not available in CE public‐use files.