Political Consequences of Welfare Regimes: Social Assistance and Support for Presidentialism in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Tackling redistributive expansion in developing countries, this paper explores broader political consequences of social assistance programmes. Drawing from the Turkish case, where social welfare expanded since the 2000s, it examines attitudes of social assistance beneficiaries towards transition to presidentialism, which was approved in a referendum in 2017, and took effect in 2018. Using the results of an original survey, it indicates that social assistance benefits played a significant role in increasing support for presidentialism, by garnering votes from opposition voters, especially those with high-risk perceptions, in return for benefits. Given the character of Turkish presidentialism, devoid of vital checks and balances, the findings reveal that incumbents can mobilise support by using redistributive instruments in the context of democratic backsliding.     

美国外交政策周期理论:视角、述评与现实检验

考察美国立国以来的外交政策演变轨迹的视角大体上有两种:一是阶段性演化视角,认为美国外交政策运行呈现出一种阶段性变化的演化轨迹;二是周期视角(或曰钟摆视角),认为美国外交政策演变遵循一定的钟摆定律,在两种情绪或范式之间不断转换。在研究美国外交政策历史时,学界大都运用前一种视角而忽视后一种视角。自20世纪50年代起,美国学界开始对美国外交政策演变的周期性规律进行研究,形成了以法兰克·克林伯格为代表的"内向—外向"情绪交替理论、迈克尔·罗斯金的"干涉主义—非干涉主义"范式转换理论以及杰克·霍尔姆斯的"情绪/利益"理论。美国外交政策周期理论既有学理价值,又存在难以克服的不足。研究该理论对于了解美国外交政策的演变规律、认清当前美国外交政策所处的周期阶段及其对华政策的影响均具有重要的现实意义。     

Global Constitutionalism and Judicial Activism in Taiwan

In sociological research, law is usually considered as either a variable independent of the force of social change or a variable dependent on its shaping and moulding. Any changes in law, if not caused by social change, must be its effects. The post-1980s activism of the Council of Grand Justices (the Judicial Yuan) marked the emergence of what might be called the “global new constitutionalism” in Taiwanese society. Claiming a holistic concept of citizenship, the Grand Justices revamped the anachronistic pseudo-democratic mechanism through the medium of constitution interpretations. In order to facilitate democratic consolidation, the Grand Justices also painstakingly amended earlier versions of administrative law to facilitate the development of a reliable bureaucracy and enhanced public administration. As the battle for enhancing administrative accountability complicated the interplay between the judicial activists and other political actors, judicial activism unexpectedly linked to processes of regime change. At the same time, this activism provides researchers with a window on Tom Ginsburg's insurance thesis and Ran Hirschl's hegemonic preservation thesis regarding judicial activism.     

Optimism, Pessimism, and Coalitional Presidentialism: Debating the Institutional Design of Brazilian Democracy

Research on Brazil's political institutions has gone through several phases since democratisation in 1985. In the early years of democracy, pessimism prevailed with regard to governability. This view gave way in the mid-1990s to a more optimistic view that stressed two innovations of the Constitution of 1988: enhanced presidential power and centralised legislative procedure. In recent years, a third phase of research has shifted attention to the crucial role of inter-party alliances. These analytical approaches have converged into an emerging research programme on 'coalitional presidentialism', which places executive-legislative relations at the centre stage of macropolitical analysis. This article reviews the three phases of the debate and reflects on future research agendas.     

Perspectives on the economic relations between China and Russia

History of interactions between China and Russia and the countries' geographic juxtaposition are described with a view toward how these have affected earlier and contemporary economic relations between them. Special attention is paid to developments in the transition era. Quantitative data are examined to evaluate bilateral trade and investment activities in a comparative context. Both the level and composition of trade are evaluated. Potential for labor flows from China to Russia are assessed, and economic data on the border regions are examined to describe interaction at the regional level. Future trends in Chinese-Russian economic relations are projected.     

A Rising China and the Normative Changes in International Society

Normative changes in the Western-dominated international society have been taking place, symbolized by the evolution from the “standard of civilization” to the “new standard of civilization”. And the West has always been the developer of the new norms in international society, and changes in international norms reflect the link between power on one hand and norms, rules and institutions on the other. That is a fact or an invented reality which a rapidly rising China has to deal with, and its implications on China’s future relationship with the international society are sure to be great and far-reaching.     

Political Trust and Distrust in Switzerland: A Normative Analysis

Abstract: Based on data from a Swiss survey study (N = 769), this research investigated individual‐level determinants of trust in political authorities from a social psychological perspective. The study demonstrates that individuals with a low level of education who feel materially at risk and politically powerlessness expressed the lowest levels of political trust. This relationship was explained with differential endorsement of normative beliefs. A mediation analysis reveals that normative perceptions of Swiss society as being threatened by immorality and growing social inequalities accounted for the effect of perceived material risk on political distrust. The rejection of a duty‐based citizenship norm (voting), in turn, mediated the impact of political powerlessness on distrust. Political orientation was unrelated to political trust. These findings illustrate the cognitive underpinnings of political alienation and suggest that perceived lack of political agency and perceived risk of social declassification are key factors in understanding political distrust.     

German Arms Exports: Between Normative Aspirations and Political Reality

Deciding on arms exports is a delicate matter in western democracies. Potential economic and security gains have to be weighed against normative and security concerns. This article explores how this tension is solved in Germany, a country that holds strong moral aspirations but at the same time lists among the top arms exporting nations worldwide. Using a newly compiled dataset, we quantitatively analyse German exports of major conventional weapons (MCWs) from 1992 to 2013. Our statistical findings do not support the claim that the human rights situation in recipient countries plays an important role for German arms export decisions. Our two-stage model therefore supports a trading state rather than civilian power reading of Germany, at least when it comes to arms export practices.     

中马关系与马来西亚的对外政策

马来西亚于 195 7年独立 ,是一个多种族、多文化、多语言和多宗教的发展中国家 ,人口 2 30 0万。建国初期 ,马来西亚面临着经济、政治和安全等多方面的挑战 ,而复杂的民族构成使得政府的处境更加困难。当时 ,马来西亚的人均收入只有 2 2 7美元 ,大多数人教育程度很低 ,人口出生率超过 3.5 % ,但国家经济增长速度却很缓慢 ,年平均增长率不到3.5 %。今天 ,我们可以自信地说 ,我们已渡过了艰难的岁月。目前 ,马来西亚的国内生产总值达到 10 0 0亿美元 ,人均收入 480 0美元 ,按照联合国开发计划署的标准 ,马来西亚已经进入了高等 /中等发展中国…     

Gorbachev at Two Years: Perspectives on Economic Reforms

This article examines how the Putin leadership, inspired by the example of Yuriy Andropov, has carried out a comprehensive "sovietization" of the Russian political system by systematically eliminating all alternative sources of power (governors, competitive elections, the media, and private business). Drawing on legislation, the press, and data about the backgrounds and career paths of the post-Soviet elite, the central institutions are compared with their Soviet predecessors and the implementation of this strategy is examined. The roles of military, security and other backgrounds are analyzed. The degree of influence likely to be wielded by the siloviki is also considered.