Predicting parole outcome via discriminant analysis

Much criminological research has dealt with the topic of parole recidivism and the use of prediction devices in correctional settings. It has been suggested that potential predictor candidates need to be tested in different jurisdictions to assess their applicability in various locations. This study examines the relationship between a number of independent variables and parole outcome using a sample of 350 Kansas inmates released on parole between March and September 1979. Parole outcome was determined using a two-year follow-up from the date of parole hearing. Data on independent variables were obtained from a prediction instrument on the research sample completed by the Kansas Adult Authority, as well as information from the Offender Based Statistical Computer Information System (OBSCIS) used in Kansas. Discriminant analysis is utilized to derive discriminant functions which optimally separate those who succeed or fail on parole in terms of the predictor variables. Both practical and theoretical implications are discussed.     

Language use in ancestry research and estimation

Recent discussions have revolved around the concept of ancestry and ancestry estimation; however, the associated terminology and its theoretical underpinnings have not been similarly examined. This research evaluates the concepts (e.g., race, ancestry, ethnicity) currently in use, examines if they are consistent with the groups employed to illustrate them (e.g., Black, European, Hispanic), and looks for patterns in language usage. Articles in the Anthropology, Odontology, and General sections of the Journal of Forensic Sciences between 2009 and 2019 were evaluated for ancestry‐related language use. For each article, the concepts, examples, and bibliographic information were recorded, and the relationship between concept and example was examined. These data were cross‐tabulated to evaluate relationships between the variables. Cramer's V was used to assess the strength of association of these relationships. In this sample, ancestry predominates, especially recently The concept used is significantly associated with all variables except publication date and authors’ institution(s). Despite the prevalence of the ancestry concept, racially based terms for individual groups were common. The use of ancestry, over race, in forensic contexts has been suggested to be a primarily linguistic change; these results may support that assertion. Inconsistent language usage leads to a lack of clarity in meaning among researchers and misinterpretation of the data. It is critical to recognize that inconsistencies exist, but also to understand why they exist. These results underscore the long overdue need for the inclusion of diverse perspectives in forensic anthropology, especially in the current conversations surrounding ancestry and ancestry estimation.     

论量刑听证程序的价值与功能——以美国法为范例的考察

美国实行定罪与量刑程序分离模式,独立的量刑听证程序包括听证前的社会调查程序和法庭上的量刑听证程序。独立的量刑听证程序通过多方参与,不仅使量刑程序更加符合程序正义的要求。而且通过让法官接触更多、更全面的量刑信息,促进实体公正。此外,如果将量刑上诉、申诉等因素考虑在内,那么量刑听证程序不仅不会降低诉讼效率,反而会提高综合效率。从功能的角度分析,独立的量刑听证程序能够有效地限制法官量刑裁量权,保障被害人的有效参与,拓展辩护空间,扩大检察机关的作用空间,促进量刑程序的公开和透明等。     

REFLECTIONS ON A STUDY OF JUVENILE PERCEPTIONS

This is a report on a study of perceptions of juvenile offenders who were processed through the juvenile court. A total of 265 boys were interviewed before and after their court hearing. They were randomly chosen from the court dockets of three midwestern cities. The interview guide was composed of twelve semantic differential scales which sought to measure perceptions of the juvenile and judge on the factors of “potency” and “evaluation”; in addition, a number of open-ended questions were asked which covered a number of possible dimensions of effects of the court experience upon the juvenile. Responses to the semantic differential scales are related to such variables as age, socio-economic class, composition of household and recidivism. The results of this study are of two types: findings based upon response data, and speculations where the data do not offer significant substantiation.     

Juvenile court intake decision making: The importance of family affiliation

Based on an analysis of official records and systematic observations of intake hearings, this study empirically evaluates the criteria employed in determining whether a juvenile is petitioned to court for a formal hearing and if petitioned, whether he or she is held in preadjudicatory detention. Attention is paid to legal, social, demeanor-related, and demographic variables as they impinge on intake decision making. The major finding of this study is that the farther one goes into the intake decision-making process, the more does family disaffiliation become the prominent independent variable. The article places this area of research within relevant criminological paradigms (positivist, interactionist, neo- Marxist), summarizes the existing empirical findings, and integrates theory and evidence with the goal of producing a statement on this screening stage in the juvenile justice endeavor.     

Interview, diagnostic, and legal aspects in the forensic psychiatric assessments of deaf persons

Forensic psychiatric assessments rely on many underlying presumptions concerning the language development and abilities of their subjects. Although these assumptions may apply across a culturally diverse group of hearing subjects, they probably do not apply to those who are prelingually deaf because such deaf persons never developed verbal language. In this article, a review of the range of literature focusing upon the unique aspects of interviews, diagnosis, and legal understanding of the deaf is conducted. An attempt to illuminate those features believed to be most relevant to forensic assessments of this unique population is made. The demands of interviews conducted in manual language are discussed and particular attention is paid to the impact of the interpreter upon confidentiality, privilege, agency, and the dynamics of the interview. It is also suggested that many of the baseline behaviors of the deaf may, at least partly, result from differences in communication style between the deaf and hearing. This article reports that many major mental disorders occur with the same frequency among the deaf and hearing and include many of the same symptoms. However, organic mental disorders may occur at a somewhat greater rate among the deaf because of the organic basis of deafness. Finally, the ways in which deafness and the use of an interpreter may influence the deaf person's ability to understand and relate to legal concepts and process are discussed. It is noted that many of these problems may arise from a deaf persons inexperience or undereducation about legal matters rather than psychopathology.     

What is the prevalence of abuse in the deaf/hard of hearing population?

It is thought that deaf or hard of hearing individuals are at greater risk of abuse than the hearing population. The purpose of this paper is to systematically examine and integrate existing literature to determine the prevalence rates of neglect, emotional, physical and sexual abuse and intimate partner violence (IPV). A set of inclusion and exclusion criteria was determined. Following this a comprehensive search of numerous databases was conducted. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Eight studies reviewed the prevalence of sexual abuse, seven reviewed physical abuse, five reviewed emotional abuse, four reviewed neglect and six examined IPV. This exceeds 14 as numerous studies examined multiple types of abuse. Quality assessment indicated 12 studies were of ‘moderate’ quality and the remaining two were rated ‘good’ quality. Issues with similar samples, a tendency towards young, educated women within the IPV data, and small samples suggest caution is to be used when interpreting their results. The reliance on written measures and the absence of an interpreter or translation of materials in some studies further complicates the results. All types of abuse were found to be more prevalent within the deaf and hard of hearing population compared to the hearing population.     

应用ABR法评定外伤性耳聋

本文通过对40例外伤性耳聋的症状、病变和听力检查,重点讨论了鼓膜损伤所致的听力障碍,其损伤程度不超过50dB,给法医学鉴定中耳损伤程度提供了客观数据。进一步验证了ABR检查在判定听力损失的意义,对夸大、伪聋的识别优于其它听力检查。从临床耳聋程度分类法就《人体重伤鉴定标准(试行)》中,关于听力损伤的重伤标准进行了探讨。     

Public perceptions of police efficacy and image: The “fuzziness” of support for the police

Most studies concerning police-community relations have operationalized support for-law enforcement agencies in unidimensional terms. The present study dissects the notion of support for the police into two distinct dimensions: efficacy and image. Efficacy includes perceptions of the police ability to protect citizens, solve crime, and prevent crime. Image includes perceptions of friendliness and fairness of the police. A series of conventional individual-level and contextual variables are modeled in an effort to explore their relative influence on citizen perceptions of police efficacy and image. Data gathered from a national telephone survey of 1,005 citizens reveal that support for local police is both complex and multidimensional. Moreover, the results demonstrate that efficacy and image are independent dimensions, and that each is susceptible to quite different ratings depending upon which independent and dependent variables are modeled. Thanks go to Dennis Longmire, Barbara Sims, and Timothy Flanagan for providing the data used in this study.     

Predictors of job satisfaction among police officers: Does personality matter?

The aim of this research was to enhance the theoretical foundation of job satisfaction within the field of policing. The data were collected through a self-report survey administered to a sample of sworn police officers (N = 87). The primary research question was whether personality characteristics significantly contribute to perceptions of job satisfaction beyond which could be explained through demographic and job characteristic variables. Although results of hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that overall personality measurement added to the variance accounted for in job satisfaction beyond demographic and job characteristic variables, none of the independent personality scales were significant predictors. Overall, results demonstrated that years of experience and the job characteristic factors of autonomy and feedback were the most important predictors of job satisfaction in this sample of police offers. Implications and future directions are discussed.     

Sentence length: Interactions with race and court

Sentencing research tends to focus on two questions. First, do some categories of offenders receive substantially different sentences than do other categories of offenders, for the same or similar offenses? Second, do some courts give substantially different sentences, when compared to other courts, for the same or similar offenses? Focusing on these questions, researchers have typically examined the impact of three types of variables on either sentence length or sentence type: defendant status variables (e.g., race, education), extra-legal process factors (e.g., court, plea), and legal factors (e.g., seriousness of offense, prior convictions). Study results have been contradictory and inconclusive.The problem with sentencing studies is that only main effects are examined. A more appropriate model is one that contains the interactions between the defendant's race (black/white) and the other independent variables, and the interactions between the court's locale (urban/rural) and the other independent variables.Using data collected in 1978 on 412 male prisoners in Maryland, four interaction terms were found to contribute to an understanding of sentencing decisions. It was found that blacks received longer sentences than whites, net of all other variables. However, whites received lengthier sentences for more serious offenses. In comparison to blacks, whites received lengthier sentences when they used more court resources. It was found that rural jurisdictions give lengthier sentences than urban jurisdictions, net of all other variables. However, in comparison to rural courts, urban courts give lengthier sentences when the defendant uses more court resources. More serious offenses receive lengthier prison terms in rural, as compared to urban, courts.     

听力测试组合在听觉障碍鉴定中的应用

目的分析不同听力测试方法对听阈评估的作用,探讨组合听力测试在听觉障碍法医学鉴定中的应用。方法对87例外伤后听力损伤者进行听力测试,将纯音听阈测试(PTA)、声导抗、40HzAERP、ABR、ASSR、DPOAEs进行组合。听阈评估采用PTA+ABR+40HzAERP/ASSR,损伤定位采用PTA+声导抗+ABR/40HzAERP+DPOAEs。根据致伤方式的不同,分为头部损伤组和耳损伤组。比较组间DPOAEs阳性率,比较纯音听阈、40HzAERP、ABR及ASSR对听阈评估的作用。结果头部外伤组DPOAEs阳性率明显高于耳损伤组(P<0.05);纯音语频听阈异常耳与40HzAERP语频阈值及ABR比较,纯音语频阈值异常率较40HzAERP及ABR明显高,主、客观听阈明显不符。26耳40HzAERP与ASSR比较,两者在0.5kHz、1kHz、2kHz反应阈均值数相关性较好(r=0.862),ASSR语频均值较40HzAERP低,平均差17dB。结论纯音听阈与ABR、40HzAERP或ASSR组合测试对听阈的评估有互补作用。40HzAERP与ASSR均可以用于语音频率的听阈评估。声导抗、ABR、40HzAERP与DPOAEs多项检查组合,有助于确定损伤部位。     

Service utilization, perceived changes of self, and life satisfaction among women who experienced intimate partner abuse: the mediation effect of empowerment

This study explored the growth experiences of women abused by their intimate partner, specifically focusing on the associations between social services and empowerment, perceived changes of self, and life satisfaction. The potential effects of demographic variables, social support, coping, and experience of partner abuse were also explored. A survey study was conducted through the collaboration of social workers in the Centers of Prevention and Intervention for Domestic Violence and private sectors in Taiwan. Through contact by their social workers, 191 participants completed the questionnaires. The results revealed that the participants had growth mainly in their psychological and interpersonal domains. The independent variables in the regression model explained 45.3% (adjusted) variance in perceived changes of self. In addition to empowerment and negative impact of violence, intensity of contact and professional relationship were two important service variables that directly and significantly correlated with perceived changes of self. A significant amount of variance (adjusted R2 = .556) in life satisfaction could be explained by the independent variables. Social support and empowerment directly correlated with life satisfaction. The findings also supported the mediation effect of empowerment. Seven variables (e.g., social support, coping method, and professional relationship) indirectly associated with perceived changes of self and life satisfaction through empowerment.     

Aggregation,ratio variables,and measurement problems in criminological research

Issues of measurement error, level of aggregation, and ratio variables have been considered serious problems in criminological research. Although there have been many recent discussions of these issues in sociology and criminology, studies designed to assess the impact of these problems on the results of empirical research have, for the most part, been absent. After reviewing what is known theoretically and conceptually about these issues, an investigation which compares empirical analyses of a particular type of crime, homicide, that use different measurement strategies, different levels of aggregation, and ratio versus nonratio variables is presented. Utilizing homicide data from the mid-1970s and selected independent variables, the results of this investigation indicate that these three problems can interact in an empirical setting such that potential solutions to these problems do not always apply in the manner suggested in previous studies. The results also indicate that there is great risk in ignoring one or more of these problems in empirical research, in that different substantive conclusions can be reached from analyses that ignore these issues compared with analyses that deal directly with them.     

Here today, gone tomorrow, back again the next day: Antecedents of correctional absenteeism

Correctional agencies are labor intensive, and many of the posts in a prison cannot be vacated, often leading to mandatory overtime. Despite the high costs and inconvenience associated with absenteeism in prisons, little empirical work was conducted on the antecedents of sick leave use by correctional workers. From self-reported data of workers in federal prisons in 1994, the results of this study indicated that decisions to use sick leave were independent of the culture of the prisons, and that many of the variables found to be associated with sick leave use in other settings also applied to correctional settings. In particular, the authors found that job satisfaction, organizational commitment, job stress, and personal characteristics were associated with the use of sick leave. Surprisingly, tobacco use was not.     

A Macro-Cultural Research Design for Testing Competing Macro-Structural Theories on Crime and Deviance

A macro-structural integrative theoretical model previously identified for the prediction of crime rates is elucidated for its application to cross-cultural studies. The research strategy suggested for testing it is the accumulation of longitudinal case histories of cities. Thus, comparisons of relationships discovered among variables would be made rather than direct comparisons of crime rates among cultures. Cumulative results would make feasible: 1) the discrimination of theoretical priority based upon relatively objective tests parallel in nature and 2) provide a data base for the further integration of theory.

The major thesis of the paper is that extant archive data may be used in many countries to test relationships grounded in systems theory. The feasibility of the research design is discussed, with numerous examples drawn of operational measures related to the theoretical factors identified, both independent and dependent variables, namely ecological, economic, formal controls, anomie, and crime. In particular, it is noted that many countries that formerly were colonized, will tend to yield similar data.     

A new perspective in the estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) based on vitreous

The relation between the potassium concentration in the vitreous humor, [K+], and the postmortem interval has been studied by several authors. Many formulae are available and they are based on a correlation test and linear regression using the PMI as the independent variable and [K+] as the dependent variable. The estimation of the confidence interval is based on this formulation. However, in forensic work, it is necessary to use [K+] as the independent variable to estimate the PMI. Although all authors have obtained the PMI by direct use of these formulae, it is, nevertheless, an inexact approach, which leads to false estimations. What is required is to change the variables, obtaining a new equation in which [K+] is considered as the independent variable and the PMI as the dependent. The regression line obtained from our data is [K+] = 5.35 + 0.22 PMI, by changing the variables we get PMI = 2.58[K+] - 9.30. When only nonhospital deaths are considered, the results are considerably improved. In this case, we get [K+] = 5.60 + 0.17 PMI and, consequently, PMI = 3.92[K+] - 19.04.     

The State of the Art of Child Hearings in Germany. Results of a Nationwide Representative Study in German Courts

According to German family law, in family court proceedings that deal with custody or access rights, family judges are obligated to personally hear the child if the feelings, ties, or will of the child are significant for the decision. In a research study commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Justice, a nationwide representative survey of all judges compiled their personal information and their attitudes and expectations as well as various parameters regarding the concrete practice of hearing children. Also, with a very complex methodological design, over 50 children and their parents were studied one week in advance of the hearing, directly before and after the hearing, and four weeks following the hearing. The results of the study are presented, particularly those pertaining to the burden and relief for the children and the expectations of judges. The practical experiences of family judges in personally hearing children are included as well.     

An analysis of the relationship between being deaf and sexual offending

Abstract

Research demonstrates that deaf offenders are over-represented within the criminal justice system. In addition, those deaf offenders who are incarcerated within prison estates or psychiatric units are predominantly incarcerated for sexual offences. This paper will evaluate the existing literature surrounding the reasons behind this bias. In particular, this review will examine the characteristics of deaf offenders in relation to their personalities, language and brain development and abilities to communicate. This paper will consider proposed associations between mental illness and childhood sexual abuse amongst deaf individuals and later sexual offending. This paper attempts to evidence differences between deaf and hearing offenders in order to explain why more deaf offenders commit sexual crimes than hearing offenders. This paper will conclude that the research is scarce and inconclusive and that current assessments and treatment are potentially inadequate due to the profound difficulties associated with accurately understanding and communicating with the deaf offender.     

应用多元逐步回归分析建立ART推算PTT的数学模型

既往国外文献报道用ART推算PTT，但结果差异较大。选择正常听力和感音神经性聋的400例大样本，将全部有关数据用Foxbase数据软件建立相应数据库，再运用SPSS数据分析软件包中多元逐步分析程序，建立了用纯音ART和WNART推算PTT的数学模型。经配合适度和偏回归系数等显著检验（P＜0．00001），且新建方程的准确率和可信性较过去方法为好。年龄、轻度中耳阻抗异常对推算准确性无显著影响。作者认为，新建数学模型可作为法医听力学评定中常规方法。