Better safe than sorry

Many women in developing countries would rather risk an unwanted pregnancy than put up with the side effects of efficient contraceptive methods. 40-70% of Third World users abandon use of oral contraceptives and the IUD within 2 years because of side effects. An additional 25-33% of women do not use contraceptives at all because of a fear of side effects. In part, this reflects the tendency of pharmaceutical firms and health staff to avoid discussing the side effects of modern contraceptives with Third World women, out of concern this will keep them away from family planning clinics. Without proper information, women become suspicious they are being manipulated or interpret unrelated symptoms as due to contraception. Another reason for low rates of acceptance of modern contraceptive methods is the failure of family planning programs to match the contraceptive prescribed to the needs of the acceptor. Women who want a number of children, for example, should not be given a method such as the IUD or injectables that may interfere with future fertility. In a village in Bangladesh, the birth rate actually went up after the pill was introduced because it interfered with lactation and was abandoned by 80% of initial acceptors. Ironically, there is evidence that efficient methods turn out to be less efficient in preventing births than their traditional counterparts such as the widely acceptable coitus interruptus method.     

The biggest contraceptive in the world

The indiscriminate promotion of infant formula in 3rd world countries frequently increases women's fertility as well as resulting in a direct risk to infants. The fertility effect of the decline of breastfeeding in the 3rd world over the last 30 years has only recently been examined. Preliminary study results show that it is not simply the presence or absence of breastfeeding which counts but the amount of suckling which takes place. Mothers who nurse often, on demand, return to fertility much later than those who do not feed at night, or who stick to regular, separate feeding intervals. The contraceptive effect of breastfeeding comes from the release of a hormone (prolactin) directly after stimulation of the nipples, which in 5-15 minutes increases almost 20 times its normal level in the bloodstream. Prolactin is short lived in the blood so that half of this quantity will have vanished 10-30 minutes after suckling stops; regular feeding is needed to keep the level sufficiently high to inhibit fertility. If a woman does ovulate, it may be what is termed and "inadequate ovulation" where the corpus luteum does not function normally and even if the egg is fertilized will not permit the pregnancy to continue. A study on this theme was conducted among the Kung people of northwestern Botswana where there was an unusually low natural fertility--about 4.7 live births/woman, well spaced out. The children were normally weaned at 3-years old, and daytime suckling followed an unusual pattern. It was very brief, a few seconds or minutes, and very frequent. Breastfeeding began to decline during the child's 2nd year and fertility shortly returned. The World Fertility Survey concludes that "on average, breastfeeding for 1 months adds 1 week to the birth interval." In countries like Colombia and Panama, which are heavily Westernized in the urban areas and where traditional cultures are largely eroded, aggressive Western provision and marketing of artificial contraceptives may just offset the aggressive Western marketing of breastmilk substitutes, as far as fertility is concerned. In other developing countries bottle feeding may have increased unwanted pregnancies.     

Bangladesh: where there's a pill there's a way

In exchange for the substantial foreign aid provided to it by the U.S. Agency for International Development, the government of Bangladesh has agreed to accept the Agency's population package. The government has agreed to accept AID-provided contraceptives and has set revolutionary fertility rate targets for the year 1985. To meet the scarcity of contraceptive clinics in rural areas, AID and Population Services International (PSI) have instituted social marketing in Bangladesh. This involves use of commercial distributors, e.g., cigarette dealers and local shopkeepers, for the distribution of condoms and oral contraceptives. The distributors are willing to participate because they make small but significant profits from the arrangement. It is feared that shopkeepers do not have the expertise to screen women who should not be given pills or to give counseling for prospective pill customers. This type of pill distribution could lead to dangers.     

The small miracle

Although the standard argument for distributing birth control pills throughout the Third World is that they are less dangerous than pregnancy or abortion, irregular use of the pill increases riks of both. The irregularity of use can be attributed to both poor delivery systems and side effects. Side effects occur because of poor screening and lack of alternative dosages. Because of the lower price of buying in bulk, family planning groups distribute only 1 kind of pill. The woman who experiences side effects, e.g. headache, dizziness, weight gain, depression, has no choice but to discontinue use. Few women are screened by having their blood pressure taken, therefore the pill exacerbates illness in those with circulation problems. Breast-feeding mothers who take the pill provide less sustenance from their breastmilk, which can increase infant mortality rates. In Bangladesh a USAID-funded study on contractive distribution found that the "trained" family planning workers did not know what advice to give a woman who missed her pill on 5 consecutive days, or what type of side effects might be anticipated, or how many days after the onset of menstruation a woman should begin the pill. A more level headed approach to delivery of contraceptives in developing countries is needed.     

Further resources for participatory research and gender analysis

So much work has been done on participatory research and gender analysis – their implementation, evaluation, and institutionalisation – that it is difficult to recommend a limited set of resources. The context here is ‘challenges to operationalising participatory research and gender analysis’, so we have sought out resources which shed light on some new practical issues and are based on empirical evidence. Some of the classics in the field have also been included. Readers will find additional resources in and through the bibliographical references of articles included in this issue.

This list was compiled by Guy Manners from annotated submissions by contributors to this special issue.     

东亚经济发展模式的演变与重构

由于日本充当东亚经济发展领头者的“雁行模式”已经崩溃,因此,“日本在前面拉、中国在后面推”的东亚经济发展的“双头列车”模式也就失灵了。这就需要我们重新构建东亚经济的发展模式。未来中国具备了引领东亚经济发展领头者的条件,日本在对外直接投资、技术转移等方面是东亚经济强有力的推动者,而且在东亚经济一体化方面离不开中日两国的密切合作。因此,未来东亚经济的发展模式是“中国在前面拉、日本在后面推。”这种模式和传统“双头列车”模式相比,中日在东亚经济中作用的角色发生了换位,故称之为“新双头列车”模式。“新双头列车”模式对中国来说,既有机遇,又有挑战。     

“金三角”地区泰国北部毒品形势调查报告

为全面掌握“金三角”地区毒情形势，为中国禁毒战略和除源截流战役提供信息和对策性支持，笔者一行于2007年12月24日至2008年1月4日赴泰国北部地区考察泰北地区毒情，了解近年来泰国北部地区的禁毒情况。     

Women and family poultry production in rural Africa

Poultry production has existed for many generations in Africa, and almost every village household keeps chickens. The rural family poultry (RFP) are generally raised in free-range and/or backyard systems, which are traditional extensive husbandry systems. The development of an intensive poultry production has been the goal of the African government over the years. Despite efforts aiming for such goal, RFP is still very important in African countries that are both poor and net importers of food. It is a valuable asset because it can contribute significantly in alleviating poverty, securing food supply, and promoting gender equality. In view of this, interventions to improve RFP production systems should take into account the sociocultural issues, specifically gender-based aspects. It is noted that such interventions might, in addition to food security and poverty alleviation, also serve to promote gender equality. RFP development programs should be more women-friendly in order to facilitate women's participation, as RFP production in the region is generally a woman's business. Moreover, efforts to empower village women has to be envisaged cautiously as there is a serious risk of men taking over once the poultry sector becomes more profitable.     

哈桑·哈乃斐的“行先于知”思想

"知"与"行"或者说"认识"与"实践"问题是阿拉伯当代文化与思想界十分受关注的问题,哈桑.哈乃斐作为当代阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化界最具影响力的思想家之一,就该问题展开了深入的思考与研究,提出了"行先于知"的思想主张,并充分挖掘了该思想在阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化中的深层渊源,力图在当代阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化中推崇重实践、绝空谈的务实精神,并推动将阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化研究在整体上实现从"神学"向"人学"的转变,促进阿拉伯-伊斯兰文化"传统"与"现代"的协调发展。     

Thucydides on Ripeness and Conflict Resolution

Ripeness is the moment when parties to a conflict become willing to accept a settlement. It necessarily has a large subjective or psychological component. Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War may be viewed as a case study in ripeness, or its lack. Thucydides claims the conflict was foreordained to be a "great" war, meaning it could not be resolved before its cataclysmic end. His account of its origins reveals why this was so, and his presentation of select moments during the war constitute explorations of the obstacles to resolution. What Thucydides adds to the current literature on ripeness is a distinctive account of the psychology behind it.     

日本的王希天研究

日本的关东大地震虐杀华工案和"王希天事件"的研究,始于20世纪60年代。当时,日本政府曾极力掩盖虐杀中国劳工的真相,严格控制封锁相关的档案资料,致使这一事件的真相迟迟不能大白于天下。中日邦交正常化以来,日本国内具有正义感的专家学者,在反思日本军国主义侵略中国罪行的同时,开始了对关东大地震前后虐杀王希天及滞日华工个案的研究,先后出版了一些具有史实意义和学术价值的著述,为国内的王希天研究提供了有益的助力。     

The channel tunnel negotiations, 1984–1986: Some aspects of the process and its outcome

Conclusion The negotiations leading to a decision to build a fixed link across the channel and to agree on a joint scheme and its mode of operation provide an interesting illustration of a basically non-conflictual, complex, multiple-issue, multipleactor, multiple-event negotiation. Obviously stakes, interests, constraints, goals, and expectations were not similar, but the parties involved took advantage of a ripe moment to act on an undertaking that had first been envisaged almost two centuries ago.The Eurotunnel operation is an important experiment in bi-national cooperation in economic matters. True, negotiations were not easy and differences did and still do exist. But this huge joint venture—whatever view is taken on its merits in terms of allocation of resources and relative priority compared to other large investment opportunities—is often evaluated in terms of its impact on the relationship between two nations which are part of a complex endeavor toward large-scale integration. For the researcher on negotiation, it provides a range of case studies through which to examine the applicability and relevance of concepts and methodologies. This article is a first approach at analysis, but constitutes only a small part of the research potential of the project. Christophe Dupont is a professor of negotiation at Lille University (Faculty of Business Administration) and is also associated with a management research center, Centre des Recherches et d'Études des Chefs d'Enterprises, 76350 Jouy-en-Josas, France. He is the author ofLa Négociation: Conduite, théorie, applications (Paris: Dalloz), the third edition of which will be published in 1990.The research for this article was sponsored by Agence Régionale de Développement, Lille, France. The research involved three different topics, of which only the third is referred to here. The interpretations reflect the author's views based on official documentation and interviews both in France and in the United Kingdom. A preliminary listing of issues—not covering most aspects dealt with here—was presented to the Processes of International Negotiation (PIN) conference at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, in May 1987 in a paper titled Negotiating a research project on negotiation: The Fixed Link (Transchannel) prenegotiation.     

朝鲜的核、导战略态势及其影响

朝鲜实施导弹发射和地下核试验,意在实现核拥有,籍以提高对美战略的筹码。朝鲜开展核战略角逐由来已久,先后展开过以守为攻;“边缘”对应;将计就计;以硬对强四个回合。角逐结果虽不乏战术上的小胜,却丧失了战略上的大胜。此番的导弹试射与地下核试验可视为第五个回合,是朝鲜核、导角逐战略“以攻为守”的转换。朝鲜执意实现核拥有纵有多种原因,却因核、导本身所拥有的“双刃剑”作用,带来于己、于他都不利的负面影响。包括:自食其言,愈加难以取信于国际社会;产生连锁反映,引发新一轮的军备竞赛;挑战核不扩散条约,难免遭到更大封杀;破坏合作气氛,延缓统一进程;置中国于尴尬境地,动摇中朝关系基础。朝鲜的“自行其事”难免遭到国际社会更加严厉的抵制。     

A Methodology for the Study of Historical Counterfactuals

Counterfactual reasoning is a component in much historical and political research. A proposal for exploring counterfactuals is elaborated, based on philosophical work on modal logic and possible worlds semantics. It is proposed that phenomena have essences which are unchanging in all possible worlds and that counterfactual analysis consists of making inferences about the contingent properties of these phenomena. Essential properties can be expressed as contingent relations bound, in different counterfactual situations, to different contingent properties. This methodology is applied to counterfactual explorations of a particular phenomenon: the "winnability" of high-level United States foreign policy recommendations. In two cases, the question is asked of whether "harder line" U.S. policies regarding Vietnam would have been adopted. Using the methodology elaborated in the first half of the article, it is found that as early as 1961, recommendations for the overt use of U.S. ground combat troops could have been accepted.     

Fascism as Action through Time (Or How It Can Happen Here)

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how fascism may be identified by its actions, the stages through which a fascist rule takes power, and how to recognize it before it does so. The thesis is that a fascist takeover of a democratic government is rapid and unexpected. Its goal is a revolutionary reversal of representative government in the name of the people, while it accomplishes the opposite: a single-party corporate regime that replaces individual liberty with subtle, bureaucratic, and overt types of coercion. Rather than generate a generic definition of the many types of fascism, it is more useful to study how it affects the lives of ordinary people, the milieu out of which it develops, and what its precursors look like. Understanding fascism entails studying it from the point of view of those who lived under it and recorded their experiences, as well as from the analytic perspectives of social scientists. As Robert O. Paxton observes: “The fascist phenomenon was poorly understood at the beginning in part because it was unexpected.”¹Robert O. Paxton, “The Five Stages of Fascism,” in Fascism: Critical Concepts in Political Science, edited by Roger Griffin, vol. I (2004), Chapter 14, 305–26.View all notes We are facing the question again in 2017 with the surprise election of Donald Trump as the forty-fifth president of the United States by a minority of the popular vote and the evident support of the white nationalist milieu. Paxton proposes a five-stage theory for understanding fascism in its many varieties. A developmental sequence is proposed against which current events in the United States may be assessed.     

Pioneers of peace research VII: Edward E. Azar: Apostle of events

Azar's COPDAB is the most comprehensive world events data bank for the years 1948–1978. His scale from cooperation to conflict has been researched more than any other such scale. More research is needed on the concepts of cooperation and conflict so far as these have been operationalized by judges’ values. While cooperation is generally desirable in our culture, and conflict is generally undesirable, empirical results suggest that cooperation also has its undesirable component and conflict also has its desirable component, so far as it is sometimes directed toward the elimination or reduction of structural violence. Consequently, both cooperation and conflict are more complicated than they seemed at first glance. Events data have their limitations in that they hardly explain themselves, so that events studies have to be supplemented by attitude studies, attribute studies, historical studies, and social studies. Peace was defined in terms of containing and managing behavioral violence in the beginning of Azar's work, but it was later defined in terms of development defined in terms of equality rather than growth. Since the research results themselves motivated these theoretical changes, this suggested that peace research is a self‐correcting and self‐developing process that facilitates and promotes its own progress.     

War's dark glamour: ethics of research in war and conflict zones

The article addresses three questions concerning violent conflicts in Sri Lanka, Burma and southern Thailand: How is it possible to investigate questions of war and conflict in the field, especially concerning access and exit options? Access was gained in different ways in all three areas depending on the respective situations; special conditions and restrictions influenced the type and quality of data to be collected. The second question concerns the ethics and permissibility of research and data collection in conflict zones. What are the dangers or risks for both researcher and the local informants? What will be the quality of data so gathered? Third is a related question of ethics, that of impartiality: this is less a question of whether it is possible than of whether it is permissible for the researcher to stay ‘neutral’ in violent conflicts. This also has to be determined individually and in a different manner for each conflict zone. It is obvious that all researchers violate the ideal of ‘objectivity’ implicitly or explicitly from the start, yet this need not invalidate their findings. The paper concludes that research in conflict zones is mandatory, despite all doubts and qualifications. Only making such zones public can shape perceptions, give voice to the voiceless and so prevent these conflicts becoming invisible—‘war without witness’.     

Economic aid to post-conflict countries: a methodological critique of Collier and Hoeffler

In the past five years, research sponsored by the World Bank on the economic aspects of civil war1 ?1. The project was titled the Economics of Political and Criminal Violence. View all notes under the research directorship of Oxford economist Paul Collier has had an extraordinary influence on the subsequent study of violent conflict and civil war and on international policy. The research project has now turned its attention to the problem of countries emerging from civil war and what Collier and his co-author, Anke Hoeffler, call ‘a first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process.’2 ?2. First reported in a World Bank Policy Research Working Paper circulated in October 2002, their article, ‘Aid, Policy, and Growth in Post-Conflict Societies,’ the paper was in 2003 posted on the website of the Centre for the Study of African Economics, Oxford University until it was published in 2004 in the European Economic Review. There are some minor differences between the two versions of their work, but the conclusions are identical. In the present article, the paper version will be referred to as Collier & Hoeffler (2003) and the published version as Collier & Hoeffler (2004). View all notes Building on the influence of their earlier research and the lively interest currently in knowledge about and policy on post-conflict strategies, this work is likely to be equally influential on research, thinking, and policy. It is all the more important, therefore, to subject the research to critical examination before it becomes established as conventional wisdom. This note reports one such attempt to analyze some major methodological problems with the study and argues that the research cannot sustain the conclusions they draw or the resulting policy recommendations.     

Availability ray

As Director of the Office of Population in the U.S. State Department, Dr. Ray Ravenholt is a controversial figure. In an interview with New Internationalist Dr. Ravenholt agrees that economic development will reduce family size in developing areas as it has in industrialized countries but the availability of contraception is of primary importance. He believes the U.S. should be training gynecologists from developing countries in modern methods of contraception, including sterilization operations, but he does not believe in involuntary sterilization or coercion. In Greenland, for example, the birth-rate fell from 48/1000 in 1964 to 19/1000 in 1977 because the Danish Health Minister introduced family planning. No coercion was used. Contraceptives were made available. Although he sees value in redistribution and equal distribution of resources, Dr. Ravenholt claims that if you make information and family planning services available you control population growth in advance of solving the resource distribution problem. In China, where a strong attempt has been made to distribute resources equally, a very powerful planned birth control program was found necessary. Politicians may argue that the U.S. should limit its consumption of resources but they are the same people who are working to emulate the same amount of consumption.     

"New Wars" and Rumors of "New Wars"

Recently, there has been a growing tendency to suggest "new" classes of wars that are presumably different from all wars we have known and studied. In this article, we discuss the extent to which the landscape of armed conflict has changed so dramatically that it has necessitated a revision of the prevalent typology of war, a reconsideration of the correlates of war, and a reconceptualization of the theoretical assumptions regarding the etiology of war. While it is clear that patterns of warfare shift across time and space, it is not clear that war itself has changed "fundamentally" and has become inexplicable in light of theoretical arguments in world politics as many "new war" theorists suggest. Our analysis demonstrates that many of the "new wars" are simply amalgamations of various interstate, extrastate, and intrastate wars-i.e., the "old wars"-that have been lumped into a single category. The result is a hodgepodge of armed conflicts whose different correlates derive from their diverse morphologies rather than their novelty as wars unlike any we have experienced previously.