State budgeting: current conditions and future trends

This article examines current state fiscal conditions, the impact of political and administrative institutions on state budgeting, and budget reform in the states in order to identify trends and expectations for the 1990s. Existing research is used as a basis for identifying trends and likely developments.     

Policy analysis: past,present, and future

This article reviews three themes in the past, present and future of policy analysis—policy analysis as a paradigm for policy advice, the fragility of public policy analysis organizations, and the emergence of ideologically based policy analysis organizations. The policy sciences have evolved from the rational model and the efficiency emphasis to an increased sensitivity to political factors in policy settings and to softer forms of analysis as legitimate ways of understanding policy issues. The article traces the growth of policy analysis staff in both the legislative and executive branches of the Federal Government. The article closes with a consideration of the implications for policy analysis education of the trends described above.

Commenting on the state of policy analysis is like trying to describe Southern California. Continuing claims and counter claims have been made about the area's demise. Yet, people from many backgrounds continue to flock to it and proclaim native status. Observers agree there is something important there but they warn that its future is potentially imperiled.

This is a selective roadmap to the past and present of policy analysis with some added perspectives on its future.⁽¹⁾ Three themes are developed in the discussion. One is the durability of policy analysis as a paradigm for policy advice. The second is that, despite this durability, government policy analysis organizations are fragile entities. The third is the challenge to policy analysis brought about by ideologically oriented policy movements. Rather than drawing a tight boundary around policy analysis, this discussion defines the field as those activities which are undertaken, ostensibly at least, in support of decision making about prospective actions for addressing public problems. The key distinguishing points are that the activities—whether labeled policy analysis, policy research, policy design, implementation analysis, program analysis, regulatory analysis, or something else—are: (1) decision oriented, (2) problem driven, and (3) forward 10oking.⁽²⁾ Specifically excluded from this categorization are both retrospective evaluations and traditional academic research. As the diverse set of labels listed above suggests, policy analysis presently comes in many forms and is produced in a variety of institutional settings.     

Public service: present problems,future prospects

The concept of public service, which is too often approached simplistically, is worthy of both support and serioui reexamination. Contributors to this symposium provide four distinct perspectives which, taken as a whole, provide an optimistic view of possibilities for solving problems associated with this necessary and productive link in our social fabric.     

Innovation in local government: past,present, future

This article discusses the heightened importance of innovation in local government. It examines driving forces of innovation, as well as strategies for implementing innovation. Frameworks are discussed for studying innovation, and an overview of symposium articles is provided. The article concludes with policy implications and directions for future research.     

Health care policy: lessons from the past and issues of the future

Liberal distributional values, the increasingly powerful capacity of medicine to provide more and better care, and concern about the health hazards of an industrial society fueled the vast expansion of the health care sector during the last 20 years. That growth was facilitated by a growing economy. The current health policy debate at one level reexamines the distributional bases of entitlement programs, and at another seeks alternative resource allocation mechanisms to reduce the cost of health care. This article has two themes. First, distributional and allocational policies are shown to be intrinsically related, so that the health policy debate is fundamentally a clash between liberal and libertarian values. Second, the inexorable social forces driving the health care system are shown to be the aging of the population and the rapid expansion of technology. The resulting dynamics imply the further growth of the health sector, now in the environment of a sluggish economy. Future policies will have to struggle with how to ration scarce health resources and how to reorient the health care sector to the problems of the aged.     

Strategic management and public organizations: Lessons from the past and prescriptions for the future

The 1990s have become a decade of reflection and rethinking of foundational concepts in the field of public administration. Public adminstrationists are attempting to bring the best of management approaches to bear on the problems facing public organizations. Strategic management has been widely used in the private sector since the 1960s, and has gained increased acceptance in the public sector since the 1980s. It is a management approach that synthesizes much of what management theorists have long recognized as essential to effective management practice. This article traces the development of strategic management and examines what has been learned from the past that will improve future implementation efforts in public organizations.     

The future of professionalization and professionalism in public administration: Advancements,barriers, and prospects

This article examines the advancements, barriers, and prospects of the field of public administration as it seeks professionalism through professionalization. Overall, this essay delves into six broad areas of advancement and an equal number of obstacles. The milestones focus on the criteria of a profession and public administration's fulfillment of those standards, far-reaching credentialization, the expanding entry of women and minorities, the development of performance criteria, intergovernmental networking, and an expansion of associations. The impediments to the further evolution of the field toward professional development include the continuing value conflicts over the ultimate purposes of the field; the persistent politicization of the federal workforce; the inability of public servants to affect the uses of privatization; the erosion of national, state, and local governmental human-resource capacity; the confusion over the teaching of ethics and the promulgation of operational codes; and the prevalence of authoritarian administration without significant democratic inroads. The respective enumerations were not intended to suggest an exact symmetry between accomplishments and obstacles in the field--only that progress and deficiencies are prominent and substantial. Nor were these considered lists intended as exhaustive.

The central theme of this article is that, paradoxically, the prospects of this profession are encouraging because of the growing public need for its services despite persistent, widespread unpopularity. This research concludes that public administrators face an ambivalent future in which their emerging profession continues to prosper and expand amidst increasing alienation and frustration from the public whom they serve. This irony may not be alleviated until there is a socially and politically agreed-upon agenda for public servants to execute. If such a consensus is ever forged, then public administrators may become popular as well as professionally effective.     

继往开来 再创辉煌

中国青少年犯罪研究会自1982年成立以来,在党和政府的亲切关怀下,在社会各界的大力支持下,紧紧围绕党和国家工作大局开展青少年犯罪研究,充分调动广大会员开展学术研究的积极性和主动性,各项研究工作蓬勃发展,至今为止,累计发展了3000多名会员,22个省、自治区、直辖市建立了青少年犯罪研究会;组织召开了14次全国性学术讨论会,20多次区域性专题研讨会;受全国人大、国务院相关部门的委托,组织开展了多次大规模的调研,承担多项国家重点科研课题;组织编写、出版了《中国青少年犯罪学》、《青少年犯罪研究丛书》、《中国青少年犯罪研究年鉴》等著…     

Comparative governance: prospects and lessons

This article revisits the country case studies and seeks to answer two questions. What are the strengths and weaknesses of an interpretive approach? What lessons can we draw from our analysis of public sector reform? To assess an interpretive approach, we discuss: the issues raised in identifying beliefs; the meaning of explanation; how to select traditions; the shift from prediction to informed conjecture and policy advice as storytelling. To assess the lessons, we outline our preferred story of public sector reform. We seek to show that an interpretive approach produces insights for students of public administration. We argue it remains feasible to give policy advice to public sector managers by telling them stories and providing rules of thumb (proverbs) to guide managerial practices.     

Migrations in Kazakhstan: past and present

This article traces the history of migration flows from Russia to Kazakhstan before 1917 to the present. The present problems in the republic stem from the complicated character of migration. Russian migration of Cossacks and peasants began after Russian annexation in 1731. Migration was intense during the Revolution of 1905-07 and the strongest during 1917-91. Records reveal 1.1 million migrants and 5 million total population in 1900. 6.2 million migrated during 1917-91. During 1917-91, migrants in the early years were victims of collectivization (est. 250,000), followed by WWI refugees and migrants from northern provinces fleeing civil war (100,000 persons). During the 1930s, industrial workers were recruited (1.3 million). "Unreliables" were deported during WWII (1.3 million). Forced evacuees from occupied territories settled during 1941-45 (1.45 million). Spontaneous flows occurred during the 1970s (1 million). There were secret military settlements (250,000), labor migrants (200,000), and war and ethnic refugees fleeing national conflicts (50,000) post-WWII. 42% of Kazakhs died from hunger and epidemics, and 33% fled abroad during the early decades of the century. In 1937, population amounted to 2.8 million. Today, about 100 nationalities live in Kazakhstan, although the largest groups are Kazakhs (43.2%) and Russians (36.4%). In 1993, 75.8% of the total work force were non-Kazakh workers. Kazakhs are 60% of rural population, but many are migrating to cities that are dominated by Russians. Growing unemployment fostered tensions with the Chechens and may lead to conflicts with Russians.     

Administrative reform in china: Issues and prospects

China's experience of organizational reform is representative of the country's attempts to implement more general administrative reform. Forty years of organizational reform have produced only short-term successes. In the 1988 reforms, however, leaders proposed for the first time to re-define the role of the state in society. In general, the reforms have been undermined by political, economic, and institutional problems. These include conflicting elite priorities, cycles of economic centralization and decentralization, the interdependence of government agencies and economic enterprises, and the lack of incentives to economize. Consequently, the organizational reform management institutions are very weak. Successful implementation of organizational reform in the future depends to a large extent on further economic development.