A comparative analysis of mortality in the Americas

"The analysis concentrates on the mortality of [the] adult population at ages 15 to 74 in 8 countries of the American continent.... Results are presented by age, sex and principal groups of causes of death. It is concluded that: a) mortality can significantly decline further in the Americas; b) there are noticeable mortality differentials by cause among countries; [and] c) all the countries still have excess mortality in certain age groups and causes of death, and hence, the mortality transition has not ended." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Mortality by cause among children younger than age one in Mexico

"This article presents the levels and trends of deaths among children [in Mexico] under the age of one, by groups of causes, for some states, for the years 1979-1985. Identifying the causes of death according to the international classification of diseases, both for deaths among children under the age of one and for total deaths, the goal is to establish a comparison of the levels of general and infant mortality by groups of causes. The data are taken from the statistical yearbooks of the Head Office for Statistics, for the years 1979 to 1985." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Differential mortality in women of reproductive age

"This paper begins by reviewing some conceptual frameworks for the study of female mortality and indicates some of its application problems. Next it presents results of mortality of women in reproductive-age classified by age, causes of death, and socio-demographic traits (marital status, schooling, and occupation) for ten states [in Mexico] differentiated according to level of development and well-being. The data suggests differences according to age, marital status, and schooling. Finally, testing of the mutual independence and partial independence hypotheses indicates that age, marital status, and schooling correlate to the degree of development of each state." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The demographic consequences of austerity in Latin America: methodological aspects

This work reviews evidence in the literature of possible demographic effects of the austerity programs imposed on Latin American countries in the 1980s. The work focuses on methodological problems involved in assessing demographic changes and ascertaining that they were indeed attributable to the economic crisis. An introductory section describes the recession of the 1980s in Latin America, the declines in employment and living standards, and the health and social consequences of the deepening poverty. But the author argues that evaluation of health conditions, levels of nutrition, and especially factors such as infant mortality, fertility, marriage patterns, and migration as indicators of the impact of the economic depression is full of pitfalls that are not always obvious. Few Latin American countries have civil registration systems capable of providing accurate and up-to-date mortality and fertility data. Indirect methods currently in use were intended to analyze longterm levels and trends and are of little use for short-term fluctuations. Data on internal migration are scarce even in developed countries. Even when recent data are available it is often difficult or impossible to obtain data for comparison. Infant mortality and malnutrition levels, for example, are serious problems in many parts of Latin America, but series of data capable of demonstrating that they are truly consequences of the economic crisis are lacking. Another challenge is to separate the demographic effects of the debt crisis from longterm structural processes. The possibility of time lags and of different time frames may increase confusion. Almost a year must pass before effects on birth rates can be expected, for example. Neutralizing mechanisms may obscure the effects sought. Thus, the most impoverished urban sectors may return to the countryside to seek refuge in subsistence agriculture; their departure would in some measure diminish the consequences of recession in the urban economy. The type of cross-sectional analysis of differential fertility and mortality that is currently stressed in demographic studies is of limited utility for understanding the demographic impact of economic oscillations, for which a longitudinal approach is required. The next section of the article compares evidence of the effects of the recession of the 1980s with the Great Depression of the 1930s and with historical crises, suggesting that contemporary economic recessions have little in common in terms of causes or demographic consequences with historic crises. Specific studies and available data are then examined in the areas of fertility and mortality, longterm consequences of the economic recession, and migration.     

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status

This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.     

Mortality in Mexico. Some considerations on rural-urban differentials

"In this essay, certain aspects related to rural-urban mortality differentials in Mexico are analyzed....[These include] the availability, advantages, and limitations of different sources of information and the disparity of levels and tendencies according to particular indicators of acceptable reliability, especially those deriving from recent demographic surveys conducted in Mexico. The findings confirm an inverse ratio between size of settlement and mortality, and reveal a widening of the differentials over time." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The evolution of mortality in Mexico, 1940-1980

The author analyzes mortality trends in Mexico in the twentieth century, particularly since 1940. Trends are examined according to age, sex, and cause of death. The decline in mortality is then considered in the context of the country's history and other mortality transitions. Regional variations and excess mortality are also described. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

高校学术不端现象的社会成因和多元治理

学术不端包含违规性、反学术性、危害性和社会性四层内涵,其成因研究应当从个人视角转向更加宏大的社会视角,以探寻根本性的治理方案。针对高校科研管理体制的负功能、公共政策和利益激励机制的扭曲、学术道德教育引导滞后和制度体系相对薄弱四种典型的社会成因,应发挥学术自律组织与专门他律机构的合力,推行＂零容忍＂政策,并注意借鉴西方高校的治理经验,对高校学术不端现象加以多元化治理。     

Maternal mortality in Mexico: measurement based on vital statistics

"Vital statistics are the most comprehensive source of information on maternal mortality in Mexico.... It is clear that maternal mortality has decreased throughout the twentieth century and will continue to do so. There are signs of a higher underestimation of mortality [due to] abortion. And there are regional differentials of maternal mortality.... Professional and/or institutional attention during childbirth has a great impact on maternal mortality decline. There are also socio-economic differentials by marital status, milieu, and schooling...." (EXCERPT)     

Separating Sense from Nonsense in the US Debate on the Financial Meltdown

The US debate on the causes of the financial meltdown and the policies appropriate for its resolution have a different center of gravity to that prevalent in Western Europe. Free-market solutions continue to be canvassed by conservative and libertarian politicians and political commentators with an intensity that is rarely found elsewhere, reflecting the extent to which a significant minority of American voters and policy makers remain wedded to a principled anti-statism. This article surveys those views, and the rebuttals to them now coming from more center-left elements of the US political class. It argues for the superiority of the latter, while noting that one serious adverse consequence of this positioning of the US debate is its capacity to distract attention from important underlying structural causes of the housing crisis and associated credit crunch.     

Infant and child mortality in Mexico,estimated using the 1980 and 1990 censuses and projections to 2000

Using indirect methods based on information about live births and surviving children, the author reviews estimates of infant and child mortality in Mexico. Data are from the 1980 and 1990 censuses.     

Why preferences and institutions change: A systematic process analysis of credit rating in Germany

This article argues that a within‐case analysis of the causes and patterns of the institutionalisation of rating in the German financial system offers fresh insights into change in the major socioeconomic institutions of advanced capitalism. Using the method of systematic process analysis, the article explores the expansion of credit rating in the German banking system from three perspectives: historical (power), sociological (diffusion) and behavioural institutionalism (prospect theory). It demonstrates that the proliferation of credit rating resulted from a change of preference on the part of large banks. With Germany as a least likely case for successfully implementing rating, the study's main lesson is that institutional analysis may benefit from incorporating behavioural institutionalism into the analysis of preference change because this cites economic motivations as causes of preference shifts and institutional changes.     

Population aging in Cuba

"This article presents a brief discussion of the primary aspects associated with aging of the Cuban population, from a demographic, socioeconomic and political perspective. The first issue discussed in the article is how international immigration has contributed to the aging process of the country's population, and the possible causes of this immigration. The author...points out the efforts that the country is making to deal with an accelerated increase in the sixties-plus population...." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

四川盆周地区区域贫困的成因及对策研究

四川盆周地区地域广阔,经济滞后,四川贫困地区和农村贫困人口主要集聚在这一地区,摆脱贫困、寻求经济发展已成为这一地区的首要课题.本文就从思想意识、地理劣势、经济基础及政治政策等几个方面来探讨盆周地区的贫困成因,并由此提出了对策与建议.     

Do the Root Causes of Civil War Matter? On Using Knowledge to Improve Peacebuilding Interventions

Abstract

The normative and practical success of the 1990s campaign on the right and responsibility to intervene to stop civil wars should be acknowledged so that policy and research can move on to the more pressing question of how we intervene and improve on currently inadequate results. This essay confronts a standard explanation, the failure to address the root causes of a conflict. It argues from academic research on three aspects – the knowledge on causes shaping current policies, the interests of those who matter in intervention, and the new research on civil war – that a focus on root causes would not improve outcomes and could even be counterproductive.     

同性恋的心理社会成因

随着同性恋研究的深入,其成因已越来越受到重视。本文试图综合前人研究的成果,从个体心理成长与社会文化方面探讨同性恋的形成原因。     

Comments on some indexes to measure the level and change of mortality

"The level and change of mortality can be measured in several ways not only because [of] the selected index, but also because of the way that the mortality change is measured. This document considers the indexes more frequently used for measuring the level of mortality, including the one of years of life lost recently developed. Each index is analyzed in relation to its accuracy for measuring the level and change of mortality, and advantages and disadvantages of each of them are discussed. The index years of life lost is presented with some details, since it was developed rather recently." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The distribution of income in a despotic society

A distribution of income between rulers and subjects can be derived as an equilibrium of violence, rather than from considerations of marginal products of owned factors of production. Society is organized in ranks, and the occupants of each rank are provided with incomes just sufficient that obedience is preferable to rebellion. To incorporate such considerations into a model, it is necessary to recognize phenomena that are normally excluded from economic analysis: combat, the mortality rate (from natural causes and from violence) as a component of the utility function, and a rudimentary technology of control.     

Toward Developing a Structured Approach to the Diagnosis and Resolution of Nonperforming Loans: The Case of China and India1

This article addresses the issue of nonperforming loans (NPLs) from a public policy perspective. The focus is on three aspects of NPLs that we consider essential for a proper analysis: the degree of the NPL problem, the causes of NPLs and the solutions adopted to address an identified NPL issue. This research analyses the diverse definitions and measurements of an NPL. Further, it introduces the distinction between systemic and situational causes of NPLs. Arguing that different causes require different cures, this study emphasizes a mix of short‐term and long‐term remedial measures as judicious in dealing with the NPL problem. This framework is then applied to two case studies: China and India. The conclusion identifies future directions of research, such as the study of a threshold level beyond which NPLs may pose a barrier to a country's growth and productivity.     

Sources of Split-ticket Voting in the 1988 American Elections

Divided partisan control of the American national government is not a new phenomenon. Of the 41 presidents from Washington to Bush, 20 saw the House of Representatives under the control of the opposing party. While divided control of government is nothing new, however, its recent causes are. Before 1955, divided control was due to election reversals in the off year - easily interpretable in terms of negative retrospective judgements or switched policy choices on the part of the electorate. After 1955, on the other hand, four of the seven presidents were elected with a House of Representatives controlled by the opposing party. By analysing data collected during the 1988 national elections, we distinguish between congressional and presidential ticket-splitting and find their causes to be complex. It is caused, in part, by congressional incumbency and ballot formats, but wider social forces are also responsible for ticket-splitting.